ALP 19.8%
Incumbent MP
Fraser is a new seat with no sitting MP.
Geography
Western Melbourne. Fraser covers most of the Brimbank council area, as well as a small part of the Maribyrnong council area. The seat covers the suburbs of Ardeer, Braybrook, Calder Park, Kealba, Keilor, Kings Park, St Albans, Sunshine, Sydenham, Taylors Lakes and Tottenham.
Redistribution
Fraser is a new seat, taking in parts of Maribyrnong, Calwell, Gellibrand and Gorton. Maribyrnong and Calwell contributed about one third of the seat’s population each.
History
Fraser is a new seat, primarily made out of parts of Calwell and Maribyrnong. These two seats, as well as the other seats which contributed to Fraser, have been held by Labor for many decades. Maribyrnong has been held by Labor since 1969, and Calwell has been won by Labor at every election since its creation in 1984.
Labor MP Maria Vamvakinou has held Calwell since 2001. Bill Shorten has held Maribyrnong since 2007.
Candidates
- Vinh Van Chau (United Australia)
- Peter Bain (Liberal)
- Daniel Mulino (Labor)
- Tony Dobran (Great Australian Party)
- Rebecca Scorgie (Greens)
- Van Tran (Independent)
Assessment
Fraser is a very safe Labor seat.
2016 result
| Party | % |
| Animal Justice | 1.8 |
| Labor | 58.5 |
| Australian Christians | 0.7 |
| Greens | 9.8 |
| Liberal | 25.4 |
| Independents | 3.9 |
2016 two-party-preferred result
| Party | % |
| Labor | 69.8 |
| Liberal | 30.2 |
Booth breakdown
Polling places in Fraser have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 64.2% in the north to 77.4% in the centre.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 64.2 | 20,790 | 23.3 |
| Central | 77.4 | 14,562 | 16.3 |
| South | 74.1 | 9,565 | 10.7 |
| Other votes | 64.6 | 13,746 | 15.4 |
| Pre-poll | 71.0 | 30,491 | 34.2 |
Two-party-preferred votes in Fraser at the 2016 federal election
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Keilor is a fairly affluent area, and the Green vote is starting to creep along the railway line between Footscray and Sunshine. But the rest of this seat is rock solid Labor that will never be remotely under any threat.
It was an interesting choice of Bill Shorten not to contest this almost “set-and-forget” seat (which takes in more voters of his old-boundaries Maribyrnong than it does of any of the other seats, Calwell, Gellibrand or Gorton) to give him greater flexibility to campaign nationally. Fraser has nearly twice the 2PP margin of the new-boundaries Maribyrnong.
That might be so Andrew of 3040, but Maribyrnong is still never going to be lost. He has has chosen to keep focused on the core of the old Maribyrnong, which is the Moonee Ponds area.
Very disappointed that we will be losing Tim Watts, a very progressive, open minded MP and instead ending up with a Labor right-wing, right-to-die opposing, SSM vote query ignoring, rusted on Catholic church supporting MP.
Peter Bain has been endorsed by the Liberals for Fraser.
UAP candidate appears to have changed. Should be Vinh Chau according to their website:
https://www.unitedaustraliaparty.org.au/candidates/vinh-chau/