Eden-Monaro – Australia 2019

Would it be worth the Nationals to contest this seat now? Either with or without the Liberals?

BJA the Nats will undoubtedly contest E -M, as there is no sitting Lib. The polling figures from 2016 look very solid for labor, not at all like a marginal seat. Still Peter Henry was the world’s worst MP. We will see how the electorate rates Kelly, i don’t at all.

WD – I don’t see why the Nats would. They didn’t contest in 2010 when Kelly held the seat, indeed, if Wikipedia is correct, the last time the Nats contested was in 1993 when they only managed seven percent.

This should be a Labor hold. Kelly is well regarded as a hard working local member.

That the Libs haven’t preselected a candidate yet speaks volumes of their low confidence about reclaiming the seat.

PJ
I must say i’m very surprised. I do find it inexplicable that the Nats would contest Whitlam, but not E-M.
I have many friends, & acquaintances in E-M. None of them are impressed with him. In essence he is just a Public Service Lawyer who happened to be placed in the Army. On the simple basis that we need more lawyers like a hole in the head, i desperately want him gone.
As for the libs not selecting a candidate, i just hope they don’t, as they have no chance. The Nets might, if they get rid of that idiot McCormack.

This week ” Pornstar Mike ” illustrated why there is a case for disqualifying any Canberra resident from ever being an elected representative.

These people are so completely removed from the rest of Australia, it is as if they are from another planet.

Canberran’s income averages about 60% more than other Aussies. Their infrastructure ,services, & everything else is flawless. Housing is cheap, & they wouldn’t know an immigrant from a tourist.

So P Mike gets out there rabbiting on about Emma Husar being a single mum. Apparently all her transgressions are fine, dandy, & OK because we need to support women in politics. So it’s ok that she turns one of her publicly paid staffers into a live in nanny !!??.

This level of delusion i would expect from SHY or that nasty little cretin Bandt. It seems they have more insane & otherworldly company to add to their ranks.

I doubt Kelly will pay for his spectacular lack of judgement. But he bloody well should. He is an absolute disgrace

Even If Fiona Nash runs here, it isn’t the right environment for them, Labor hold. Just like how Peter Beattie, and Kennealy Lost their bids, However Nash might reduce the swing to Labor in this seat maybe just a 0.5 swing to Labor TPP here

Ben, https://www.facebook.com/liberals4edenmonaro Dr Fiona Kotvojs has been Selected as the Liberal candidate here,

From SMH :”Internal Nationals polling in Eden Monaro, a swing seat near Canberra held by Labor MP Mike Kelly, show the party ahead 51.8 per cent on two-party terms (and with a sample size of 1708 voters, it’s no can and string effort either)”.
The Nationals candidate is Sophie Wade.

@Nick

Where did the NATS poll? A National party state conference. I would be shocked if this seat wasn’t retained by Labor. The coalition are at $8.00 in this seat on Sportsbet not a lot of faith in them in the market in winning Eden-Monaro.

Actually Mike Kelly is one of the most impressive members in Labor and a future senior frontbencher. Really not sure what’s winediamond hang up with this guy is. It actually looked like Kelly’s career could have flamed out before it peaked when he lost his seat just like when Labor rising star Michael Lee lost his seat of Dobell in the 2001 federal election. Fortunately for Labor Kelly hung around and was able to win back his seat.

PN
i Have been quite clear on Kelly. He is not a dummy. However he is a drone, mindlessly following BS, & all the execrable labor crew. A truly disgusting bunch of reprobates.
Kelly has never ,i repeat never had one original thought, or taken one individual, let alone contentious position. He just drones on with party lines, truisms, & total errant nonsense. a truly useless lawyer turned politician. He adds absolutely nothing.

This election he will not have the gift of that moron Peter Hendy. This seat is now in play, & i expect it to be extremely close, with the libs prevailing with less than 1000 votes

winediamond the coalition will not win the election please wake up, Labor Hold this is a Bellwether seat, Voters don’t care about Medivac or Asylum seekers. Lookup the Coalition toxic brand and come back here, They will not win the election, They will lose in a landslide and a 30+ seat majority for Labor

Daniel
It is clear that you regard your generation as the most influential, important, informed, intellectual, etc, etc, etc. However i can assure you that my cellar will be significantly depleted on election night !!!.(due to QLD) Your hero BS may yet however gain the opportunity to become Australia’s worst ever, & least successful PM. So be it.
Apart from failing in his intention to attempt to steal about $6000 in cash refunds from my SSMF he & his vile, & despicable comrades can actually do very little to harm me. However i DO have complete faith in his ability to cause immense, & immediate damage to the nation.
I do hope that you & your incredibly gifted generation, are prepared to dedicate yourselves, to rectify all that damage for the next 2 decades. Just as my generation did after Australia was “Whitlamised”.!! Good luck with that !!
cheers WD

If BS does win it will be with tiny fraction of what you are dreaming of. He will of course never serve a full term.

Good idea for the Liberals and Nationals to each stand a woman candidate against the blokes in Labor and Greens. As we know Kelly was in the Army, like me, and was a AALC legal officer who deployed to Somalia decades ago with an Australian infantry battalion were one soldier was shot accidentally returning to base. The battalion CO was the future Governor General David Hurley.

The courts in Somalia were getting back to normal and a nasty type who had killed many people was sentence to death by the Somalia judge. A mob approached the court and a platoon of our solders was withdrawn, not sure why, however Kelly, who was in court, was concerned the convicted murderer would be freed so he took him outside to carry out the courts sentence and shot him dead as the story goes. Australia does not support the death penalty but this was in a country that does so it has been debated if Kelly should have go involved but nothing happened to him over it.

Adrian
Sensational !!. If the story is true, & it sounds like it was. Then the question begs what happened to Kelly’s backbone ?? There certainly has been no sign of it since. He has been a total pussy.

Adrian, you are peddling malicious rumour. This was reported on several years ago, as a simple google search will show. Kelly apprehended the warlord and returned him to prison. According to the Daily Telegraph:

> Mr Kelly said a rumour that he pulled the trigger at the execution of Gutaale had been dismissed by an Australian Defence Force investigation.

> He said satellite imagery was even used to successfully dispute the claims that he was the executioner in 1993.

This electorate used to be called a “Bell Whether” seat. Apparently a sheep wore a bell and lead the mindless flock. Some media outlets today are like the “Bell Whether”. Sounds like aspects of politics currently too.

Correction – Wether is the correct title for the castrated ram used in the bell wether phrase.

Corerection – Wether is the correct word on Bell Wether. It is a castrated ram.

David Walsh – We can believe everything the Daily Telegraph and the ADF tells us, cant we? I know I spent 23 years in the ADF to 1995.

It will be interesting to see how Labor fares on the South Coast in 2019.
Shorten and Bowen’s attack on self funded retirees may well backfire here as there are many who don’t fit into his ‘mega-millionaire’ category. At a meeting in Narooma with thirty or so true believers last year there was quite a bit of discontent expressed, which surprised me as they all looked rusted on Laborites.

The usual promises of thousands and thousands of jobs from renewable energy (at a wage structure of $80K per year for each what will that do to the price of electricity when the blackouts ever stop?) and destroying the timber and fishing industry to allow eco-tourism it just sounded like hyperbole heaped on hyperbole.

Of course Kelly’s minders, who all looked as though they had graduated from a political science course of some no-name university a few years previously, obviously thought we should accept our lot for the betterment of schools, hospitals and so forth.

Not many bought the message as many retirees down here actually worked in micro and small business and realised that this money grab was coming off their ‘after all other expenses income’ so were not mightily pleased.

I’m not sure how MK will go on the south coast (eastern) at this election. In 2016 he was facing the worst ever MP in Peter Hendy (who we NEVER saw in Narooma in 3 years), so he had a dream run.
The Liberal candidate, a local from Dignam’s Creek seems pretty switched n and has a fair bit of travelling to the Yass district. Seems a big electorate in that it would take me 4 hours to get to Tumut from here.

The franking credits issue is getting a fair bit of air play down here and just lately has appeared in quite a few letters in the Canberra Times. I think Kelly will find that there are MANY retired folk down here who don’t fit Shorten and Bowen’s demographic of ‘multi-millionaire rorters’. Many who I have spoken to are really p**sed off, as am I.

Kelly had a meeting in Narooma in November 2018 and after crucifying the timber and fishing industry on the South Coast to garner the leftie Laborites and suck in a few greens as well as promises for renewable energy providing ‘thousands of jobs’ – god only knows what thousands of jobs at $80K/year is going to do to the price of electricity and reliability here.
The subsequent questions regarding franking credits from the 40 or so apparently ‘rusted on’ supporters were interesting. I thought a bit of WD40 had been sprayed around. His minders were ‘wet behind the ears’, recent graduates with a political science degree from some no-name University who couldn’t believe the temerity of questioning this ‘rort’.

Unfortunately for them most self-funded retirees down here are just above the part-pension level, retired small business people and can read a profit and loss statement. They know that knocking five to six thousand dollars off the TOP of your income is the cream and their NOT happy.

I apologize for two posts very similar – I thought the first post was in the internet ‘ether’ as I hadn’t ‘joined up’.

Phillip
i have a cousin in Narooma, George Aitkin do you know him ?. Really interesting posts. Thank you.

I’ve posted extensively on Labor’s expropriation policy on cash refunds. I agree this biting, however whether i will hurt enough, or quickly enough remains to be seen. Retiree seats like EM, Gilmore, Longman, & other QLD seats are the fulcrum, for this issue.

What you said about “pornstar Mike” just confirms things for me. The poor sad bloke does not possess the intellectual capacity , flexibility or insight to comprehend that Labor talking points, virtue signalling, & Grennie idealogical causes will not resonate in EM. Renewables are very freaking far from free, & the costs are beginning to become very evident in the ways, & places you describe. Pornstar Mike” is so totally fixed on (securing) “investment” that he is completely blind to cost, & liability. Any kind of cost-benefit analysis is dismissed with extreme prejudice .” He reminds me constantly of Steven Fry’s character General Melchard in “Blackadder goes Forth !!” ( a not so inaccurate parody of a WW1 General).

i’LL add more on the McMahon thread as Ben might find what i’m about to say about Bowen offensive
cheers WD

WD – Sorry don’t know George, we are blow ins, moving here after 30 years in Canberra … 15 years ago :). There have been some strong franking credit letters in the Canberra Times of late, mostly against Labor’s policy. Where did you post on this policy?

Hi Phillip
Longman, & McMahon so far, maybe elsewhere too. Ive also had a good crack at that imbecile Jim Chalmers,(Rankin) over his unbelievable ludicrous pontifications on the black economy. What a fool.

Phillip
MAYBE you’ll enjoy this. This post got up 4 times before the moderators started pinging it, for repetition

What will change is that 100s of 1000s of the elderly will go onto part pensions, & get the health card. Additionally the quantum amount of pensions paid will accelerate . ANY minimal gain in revenue will be obliterated by an explosion of expenditure. Any fool can see this coming. It is obvious that Bowen, & BS, are not stupid. Therefore the only conclusion is that they are wilfully & mendaciously unconcerned about harming millions of australians the country, & our future.

They have stupendous form with this, like when they obscenely politicised the funding of the NDIS. This shameful disgusting action has & will continue to cause immense harm to the disabled (like my profoundly disabled daughter) & their carers. They seem to have a “talent” for attacking the most vulnerable members of our society.

When BS PONTIFICATES & Grandstands about “Fairness” i just want to puke. It is all just so revolting. Making a statement with the PRETENCE & illusion of appearing factual, & in FACT being completely false misleading, & disingenuous. In other words speaking fraudulently. The real, essential, & absolute truth, is that millions of people receiving cash refunds will no longer receive them. That is a FACT. Then Labor have the nerve to make some semantic argument about whether cash refunds have been abolished !. Why:- because they are only selectively applying tax law !!!!.

In other words Labor are insisting on making a virtue , out of an obscenity, or perversion. How wonderfully religious !!! What possible difference can it, could it make to the retirees, whether the cash refund has been “abolished, denied, stolen or what ?? . The government has taken their money , & at the same telling them this was never yours in the first place !!!.

It is ALL just a racket, & spiel that the most gifted of con men would be envious of. They are not done yet. What will they come up with next ?

Try not be distracted, folks. The priority is to to overthrow the most corrupt and inept federal government Australia has ever seen. All else is secondary.

I agree with Max, The focus is to throw the worst goverment since Malcolm Fraser, out of office, Kelly will win because this electorate would never back conservatism, Dr Hendy was indeed a poor member, But this time even though he isnt there, The goverment will face a bigger swing against them.

Daniel
Wow, you think this govt is worse than the RGR govt . BIG CALL. Son you are in for the mother of all educations.
Obviously you have taken no notice of my post of the 19th feb. A pity. You might have taken the opportunity to consider reality, & the experience of others,, that has been bought & paid for. Good on you.

Also i doubt you have much idea of EM. My family owned a cattle property west of GOULBURN for 30 years, & i did business in Canberra for over 20 years.I’m still connected to dozens of people throughout this area. So what exactly is it that you think YOU know about the people of EM ??

The carbon tax was good, Being a climate skeptic is wrong, But im not going to get into Political correctness with you, Id rather have everyoes taxes go up including mine if it pays for healthcare for me and you and everyone else, More education investment and action on climate change, The coalition wants to give to the big banks and lower taxes for the top 1 percent in this country, You did realise somthing like 90 percent of this countries wealth belongs to all those top people? That needs to change, And i have been here many times, the town of Eden for example (which according to the results in 2016 was won by Hendy despite how bad of a member many called him, The coalition cant win this seat without that booth, And many people here want more action on climate change, and they are strongly opposed to penalty rates, which have hurtes thousands of workers, this isnt your average electorate, while the Monaro part tends to lean more conservative (except Quen) There is no way the coalition can win here unless they undo penalty rates, take more action on climate change, The drought might be a factor for farmers in the west part of this electorate, And if they actually start making an economy fair for everyone, not just those in the top 1%, I might sound like a Bernie sanders, But at least i dont sound like A Donald trump. There is also allot of independents in this country, and you have to win over them, This cnetre right gov, cant win over them unless they change their stance on many issues i stated abov, Above all, Labor hold

Daniel
As i’ve said before, clearly you don’t want to deal with realities.
This country has record expenditure on health , & education, so you think more should be spent.? to what end?
You think wealth inequality is wrong, why ? Is our tax system not one of the most progressive ? The debt levy was the Abbott govt’s most comprehensive policy failures. That idiot Bowen want’s to reinstate it along with other proven policy failures. You want to tax the top 1% more ? How much more ? Is not nearly 20% of total income tax enough ?. Oh & that figure is fraction of the true amount because high earners have far more income in the form of of fully franked company dividends. Great you tell me how, WITHOUT losing more of our best & brightest overseas. Look at countries like France which have deployed the Green /socialist policies you are advocating. How are they travelling ?? Socialism’s equality of outcome never ever works, never has, never will. Why? Because there is always free will.
HAVE YOU NOT HEARD OF the BANK TAX?
Exactly where have penalty rates been reduced, & by how much. The issue has all the massive dimensions of a bee’s dick. Unless of course you want to tell untruths, or even barefaced lies.

Like all climate change catastrophists you are clearly not interested in debate or any opinion other than your own, only preaching, judgement, & abuse. Shouting down , silencing all other views, is offensive, ignorant, & anti democratic. It is also BORING.INCREDIBLY BORING.
Australia thinking it can affect the temperature of the world is more unlikely, more impossible than an ant climbing an elephant’s leg with the intention of rape !!. The reality that you could argue otherwise says a great deal.

So Son
Telling me i am a climate skeptic is a barefaced lie,& an insult. Only an idiot would deny the climate changes constantly. I AM NOT an idiot. Anyone that buys into all the current hysteria, & conflation over it, is not very bright, or they are just trying to capitalise on the existential fear. Which are you ?

I respect yours/other peoples opinions on things, im just sharing my view, and explaining to you why i see things this way, Not everyone living on low income can afford to live anymore, And it cannot be blamed by labor as they are not in power at the moment, and i never refered tonyou as a climate skeptic, i am explainingnwhy i believe it is wrong to deny somthing that 95% of scientists say is true. The reality is the issue is more important than taxes and cost of living (i remember Greiner saying that it was the other way around on ABC a couple of days ago) Im going at the fact that people are supporting Abbots policy which was made by himself, And you know Abbot is a climate skeptic, Hed rather put business over science. The only thing i think is absurd is people thinking this is an easy liberal gain, infact the Nationals are more likely to gain this if anything (even though i dont think either of them will) because the Nationals currently have the seat of Monaro which overlaps this seat. Anyways im done with political correctness/debates, Id like to stay on topic

Staying on topic?
Something you haven’t done a lot of, Daniel.

Wrt ( 95%) of Scientists agreeing on Anything Which by the way has never, & will never happen . i refer to the world’s greatest ever propagandist
adolf hitler — ‘If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.’
Worked for him, Lots !!.

What a stupid contention

I would love a candidate to go into Eden-Monaro and tell them they’ve been given enough money already, and that it’s going to be spent elsewhere instead. Sadly, I predict this electorate will have just as much money thrown at it this election cycle as it always does.

I’ve met both Labor and Liberal candidates for EM with an open mind. Something everyone should do. Things that stands out… Mike, well its all about Mike. Big handshake, somewhat hollow and it doesn’t seem to matter how much the truth is stretched or how many promises are made (and broken), if it gets him places all the better.
Fiona is a decent person that actually cares about the issues in EM and wants to address them. Key point is listening, not just big noting yourself to climb a political ladder.
Based on quality of person I know who id vote for.

Karl
Disingenuous, & inauthentic ?. Surprise, surprise !.Have you met the Nat, Sophie Wade ?
Based on last night Kelly is in big strife. Barilaro won every single booth in Queanbeyan, with a massive overall swing. I’ll double down on my prediction.

winediamond say what you want, But State results do not translate into federal results, and i am looking forward to proving you wrong. Allot of State voters won’t back the Morrison government, Look at 2015 state election, Abbott was dead unpopular in NSW, but allot of those voters voted for the Baird coalition. So get the facts please.

you cannot add Monaro and Bega votes together and say Kelly is gone
There is a lot of personal cross voting there
seems the reverse is the case with Gilmore a very likely loss… it’s figures would give the alp 2 extra states seats but it did not happen
again cross voting

Mick
I think there are some contradictions here. Is anyone suggesting the Vic election was anything but a foretaste of what is coming ??. Kelly is not gone (yet) , but he is not safe either. Read my earlier posts.There is nothing one dimensional here.

Kelly’s strength as a local member should see him safe, as would the large number of this seat’s residents dealing with the federal Liberal government every single day at work and hyper aware of Morrison’s weekly gaffes.

I don’t think federal Labor should be worried about this seat, although they may be forced to spend more resources than they would have otherwise liked to on this campaign. If Liberals/Nationals target the seat, and Labor sleep on it, they’ll lose it.

I guess voting for Kelly is one thing but do we want Shorten as PM of this country? I’m the first to admit that the 2 previous PMs were duds but shortens going screw this place. CFMEU running the country not cool. If ALP wants votes put Albanese as leader.

John
Kelly’s strength ?? Ha, ha, ha, ha, oxymoron !!. No one seems to recall that Kelly,s opponent was Peter Hendy. Hilariously Handy appeared to think his job was to avoid people, & keep a low profile !!. Well i guess you would have to say that he was successful in this respect !! This time Mike faces 2 two opponents instead of well, nothing !!

If you want to criticise Morrison there is plenty there. Read my posts in the Cook thread. He may be a poor PM, & Leader. However he is a very skilled politician. Saying he has weekly gaffes is puerile , & unsophisticated. Ironically the country will vote for the most skilled politician, BS, rather than for the better man, PM, or leader. Nothing of any real importance will factor in.

Mick
You make a strong point. However no-one is suggesting that the Vic election results will not at least be replicated federally. There are always a couple of seats that go counter trend. Herbert is easy. EM & Lindsay are my picks.

@Karl

Suggesting Two months out from an election Labor should change leaders is crazy. Shorten biggest strength is his stability as being Labor leader for over five years unlike the divided rabble in the federal government right now. It’s funny but the Liberals were calling for the Rudd/Gillard government to be removed because they were divided but when the shoe is on the other foot there argument is “oh yes we are divided but Bill Shorten is worse….”. The double standards is breathtaking.

Anyway on to the seat Mike Kelly will hold. The suggestion state results has federal implications is a bit rich when the state Liberals were distancing themselves from Scott Morrison during the campaign. I’m over this thread there are seats that are far more a toss up then Eden-Monaro and it’s been driven along by a couple of one eyed liberals whose predictions are not even realistic and are more based on biased rhetoric. During ABC election telecast they mentioned seats such as Lindsay or Robertson maybe give some hope to the Liberals from state results nobody mentioned Eden-Monaro

Interesting . Where was Mike last night (in the BS budget reply) ?. Right between Cathy O’Toole, & BS HIMSELF !!. Now someone tell me Labor aren’t worried about E-M !!!.
OR perhaps it’s a “cunning plan” to trick the Coalition to divert resources to a seat they can’t win !!.

If Kelly’s campaign has this one in the bag why would they rip down a large prominent Kotvojs sign and replace with one of Mike. Oh and then the same guys ripping down the Nats coreflutes. Is dirty tricks an indication that they’re a bit edgy.

Mike Kelly has gone from last on the ballot to 1st on the ballot so add another 1% to his expected margin.

The Coalition were made to pay for Peter Hendy, with Labor winning a majority of the booths on the South Coast. There is every chance that Kelly will have built up some support away from his base in Queanbeyan.

I tip a Labor Hold.

HawkeyI think there are as many donkey votes voting 6,5,4,3,2,1 as voting 1,2,3,4,5,6.
Traditionally Donkey voters numbered their ballots now they are creative and spell obscenities in every way other than correctly or do anatomical drawings.

It will be interesting to see what effect the Nats running will have in E-M. They are coming off a big swing to Barilaro in the state election and they might help in the areas west of the Snowy Mountains which swing wildly depending if they are in E-M or a seat like Riverina or Farrer. An ideological warrior like Hendy might have been OK in a Sydney or Melbourne safe seat but he was never going to cut the mustard in the regions.

Hendy didn’t lose because of his personal beliefs, he lost because he was a lousy and lazy MP who didn’t do the hard yards on local constituency work.