Deakin – Australia 2019

Sukkar is a very conservative MP in an area that doesn’t strike me as particularly socially conservative (eg 66% yes vote). I would be interested to hear why he got such a strong swing last time.

I could see Sukkar being singled out by GetUp or other grassroots organisations but the margin looks a bit too wide for Labor to actively target, and the same goes for the state seats in the area (which would be hard for momentum).

Still I don’t remember Mitcham, Ringwood and Croydon being “affluent” – far from it in fact.

John, parts of this area are becoming more affluent and expensive as people are priced out of the traditionally desirable suburbs closer in.

If you can no longer afford Surrey Hills or Mont Albert, and don’t want to live in Box Hill, then areas like Blackburn, Mitcham and even parts of Ringwood start looking like great alternatives.

If the swing is on then except Deakin to fall to the ALP

Can’t see this seat falling at all IMO.

SL, on these boundaries Labor would not have won in 2007 or 2010. It’s not quite the same seat as the one that fell at Labor’s last high water mark.

Last election it was almost impossible to turn a corner without seeing Sukkar’s face, will be interested to see what effect this had if there is no major campaign run here again.

Agree with Mark Mulcair – Cox, La Trobe, Dunkley, Chisholm and even Casey will most likely be higher on Labor’s hit list.

On these boundaries Deakin would have been line ball in 2010. Certainly it’s a much less winnable seat than it was then.

Going into the 2007 election it was the most marginal Liberal seat in Victoria. There’s more low hanging fruit for Labor this time around.

Likely Liberal retain.

John
Have you missed that Sukkar increased his majority in2016 AGAINST trend ?. By a lot. This would mean he’s already captured most of the swinging vote.

I’M not convinced by your ‘conservative” theories. Deakin is middle class suburban OZ. The plebiscite vote is interesting but not evidence of an intolerance of conservatism. Sukkar is a very strong local member. Voters find that far more compelling than any political leanings.

I do fervently hope, Getup waste their time here ! IMV it would be a self indulgent distraction.

I don’t think the personal ideology of a sitting MP matters much in a suburban marginal. Unless they’re especially obnoxious about it. Sukkar might be a loud conservative voice inside the caucus but I don’t think he’s particularly outspoken publicly.

I think the personal vote is more about non-ideological factors: personality, hard work, etc. Sukkar’s sophomore surge would have also been lifted because Deakin was not a focus for Labor in 2016.

As for being against the trend, I can’t really discern much of a trend in Melbourne’s east in 2016. Neighbouring Chisholm flipped from Labor to Liberal. (Though again, partly explained by sitting member factors.)

DW
The trend i was referring to was the LIBs got thumped in 2016, & Sukkar doubled his margin, roughly speaking.

As a voter moved from Deakin from Chisholm – credit must be given to Michael Sukkar for being a hard working local member – even if you don’t agree with his politics. He is very visible and has worked hard. It was noticeable before the 2013 election that Mike Symon’s profile just dropped off – and during that campaign, it was obvious that Deakin had been written off. It is an odd seat that it has never been safe for the Libs but until 2007 they always managed to hold on.

To pick up on Mark Mulcair’s demographic points above. The suburbs in Deakin (or the old Deakin) are very mixed – parts of Blackburn are quite swish yet in the adjoining suburbs of Nunawading and Forest Hill, there are areas of public housing and some degree of deprivation. It also gets more conservative socially as you go east.

The ALP have even less incentive to put money into the seat. Agree that on these boundaries, the Libs would have held on in 2007 and probably would have in 2010 as well.

Redistributed
Looking forward to your future comments on Chisholm. In particular how long it takes Julia Banks to engage you

On these boundaries this seat is quite safe Lib, although on the previous boundaries Labor was in with a chance although those areas were all trending Lib.
Whilst I don’t agree with Sukkar at all, he has future leadership potential.

L96
Yeah he looks good. However he must first have a senior ministry. Walking before running.

I am curious as to what you find (particularly) objectionable ?. As a conservative Sukkar has been forced to follow Turnbull’s agenda, which some might describe as pretty left wing, & most as inept !!

A reachtel seat poll came out today with Liberals actually losing 52-48 to Labor.

Individual seat polls aren’t reliable, but even with huge margins for error, Sukkar is in some real trouble that the comments here didn’t really pick up.

there were 3 local seat polls they are very inaccurate all found Morrison the. more popular leader contrary to the news poll… this suggests their sample is liberal biased…. Deakin seems to be beyond what I expected. would labor have won deakin in 1883 on this boundaries?

1883? that was before federation!

oh I meant 1983 when Hawke was elected to government

Turnbull country. Suspect Lib margin a bit inflated, Sukkar would be hoping no backlash for his role but still hard ask for Labor.

I think this seat isn’t as safe as everyone seems to think, and I think has a good chance of flipping if the State election is anything to go by.

Conservative Morrison won’t go down well in Victoria, and I think a seat like this of mostly small-l Liberals will be vulnerable in light of Turnbull’s dumping, especially with a local member who was a prominent instigator.

The Liberal party struggled here but it wasn’t a wipe out. Deakin covers the lion’s share of Ringwood (ALP 53%) and Croydon (Lib 52%) plus around half of Forest Hill (Lib 52%) and Bayswater (50-50).

Weighting the former two seats twice as much as the latter two produces a crude combined 2PP of 50-50. So indeed, Deakin looks competitive. But I’m sceptical as to whether federal Labor can reach the heights achieved on Saturday. At best it’s at the high end of expectations.

For mine, Sukkar’s still the favourite.

No he isnt david, This seat has gone with Labor allot, and they preform very strongly here especially when they are favoured to take goverment, This margin is inflated, New boundaries dont always mean anything due to the fact its a new area with new issues. And it only takes getting out and talking to people. Labor gain but just for 1 term. The libs are facing a wipeout this election. Im putting my money on it, i predicted a good win for labor in the victoria election. No coalition seat is safe at this next federal election thats under 7% and i can assure you as i will prove you guys wrong again, i believe labor will pick up 85% of the seats under 7%

David Walsh, those figures happened with minimal campaigning by Labor. If Labor threw the kitchen sink at it, it’s definitely doable.

I don’t see Deakin holding, the ALP have quite a good candidate. The swings might not look big but when we consider the eastern suburbs don’t usually swing towards a state government, particularly a ALP government goes to show the Liberals have serious issues. The Ringwood and Croydon results are telling because they should have been easily held, whereas Bayswater is the more marginal of the three.

The candidates definitely play a role, and Sukkar’s role in the ousting of Malcolm Turnbull combined with the existing swing may be enough to unseat him if last Saturday is any indication.

Deakin is definitely winnable by Labor if:
1: The swing is on
2: The ALP throw resources at it.
3: The ALP candidate is as good as she looks on paper.

The new Deakin largely overlaps the old Deakin that Labor won in 2007 and 2010 – in both those elections, both parties threw incredible resources – people and money – into the campaign. In 2013, it was obvious that Mike Simon was outside the ‘sandbag’. After Saturday, it is not quite sure whether the Libs will have the human resources to throw at a winning campaign as Michael Sukkar may have pissed off a large part of the party faithful. He will be depending on big time sandbagging.

Casey, despite the smaller margin, might be easier to save.

there is talk of Flinders being close. Victoria is now looking at Nsw for the state election……… many seats are competitive especially those held by the liberal party seats with a 2016 Margin up to the 8 to 10% range are competitive.Now that does not mean Labor will win them but resources will need to put into them by the liberals and some of these will be lost as swings are never uniform…….. I think the swing can be exceeded by 3% in some places

Winediamond, in what way is Michael Sukkar an effective local member? He shares plenty of photos of himself at sporting clubs and he turns up to the Presentation nights at local schools, but what has he actually done? He voted to reduce funding to government schools. He undermined the Safe Schools program with misinformation. This is a teacher professional development program that was first introduced by Tony Abbott. He campaigned against Marriage Equality, but said he would vote according to the plebiscite, then when the time came walked out on the vote. 62% of Deakin residents voted for Marriage Equality. How is this representing the electorate?

DMac
i do sympathise with your outrage over marriage equality. doesn’t over 90% of govt school funding come from stat govts ? Who cares about safe schools ?
My post was about the numbers. This is INESCAPABLE FACT rather than propaganda . How did Sukkar get his stunning result ?? Why would it not be repeated ??
You’ll really have to do a lot better than this kind of drivel.

Based on state results, Ringwood etc this will be a Labor gain, And Safe schools is important do you not care about children’s safety against discrimination Winediamond?

Daniel
Thanks for asking me a very interesting question. I have actually been reflecting on something related to this, for some time. My short answer to your question is an emphatic NO. The reason is basically because i don’t believe that it is possible to stop children from being cruel to each other. Concentrating on particular forms, becomes a distraction from the broader challenge, & issues. Obviously the solution is real education in many forms, but i won’t dwell on theorising about all that.

Rather it would be more poignant, & relevant to share my experience, as a father. WD junior went to a Steiner school until he was 13. AT age 6 he endured significant bullying from some other boys as he was too young for his year. After repeating year 1 he continued to have difficulties. Also he continually suffered severe embarrassment, & humiliation because of his profoundly handicapped, & socially (even sexually) inappropriate sister who was 3 years younger. As a parent this was just excoriating to witness.

When i put Junior into Cranbrook he was then mocked as stupid, dumb, a bogan from the burbs, a bog Irish plod, & he even got some “dirty jew”stuff. Laughably he only has one jewish grandparent !!. This rubbish did not last long as the boarding house was rocked by a series of pretty viscous, & conclusive brawls, ending in visits to sick bay !!. Ironically he was always an eager, & the most preferred babysitter for the housemasters infant !!. Junior is a paradox !!.

So what actually really damaged him, hurt the most, caused, or reinforced the most pain, & probably marked him for life ?? i’m certain that you’ll be surprised. When Junior was 10, or 11 a few of his girl classmates told him he was “fat”, & had a “big arse”. Boys can be brutal, even sadistic, but wow, girls are cruel. This was of course absurd, totally ridiculous, & completely untrue. So why did this silly barb cut so deep ??

The answer is that it fed into some aspects of his fixation. Body types have a fundamental rage over feeling trapped in their bodies, & it is a short step to (” i hate this body”). Type 8’s like Junior usually say this stuff even more often. That wound (from those little bitches) is like Sir Lancelot’s : it is the wound that never heals.
Doesn’t matter that Junior is now a very big, powerful, good looking man, & has been since childhood.
Doesn’t matter how many women tell him he’s handsome, or even how many literally hurl themselves at him.
He’ll tell you with absolute righteous conviction that the reason he spends 15 + hrs a week in the gym, is because he has a commitment to being healthy.
Won’t matter if his body looks better than Michangelo’s “David”
In reality he is still resisting the pain of feeling like that small boy who felt like he was “fat”, & had a “big arse”

Therein lies the solution, & the spiritual challenge of feeling all these uncomfortable feelings, embracing them, & exploring what is deeper, what lies underneath. The prize, & fulfilment is true freedom, & for some of us the peace of not having to resist those feelings, & beliefs.

Perhaps Daniel you might ponder this , & consider whether it contains more potential, & worth than “Safe Schools” ?

Will be interesting to see if the Victorian state election swings are replicated at the federal level. If that happens then Deakin surely will change hands, even with the redistribution firming it up for the libs.

Don’t think Sukkar is a good fit at all for the seat, his conservative nature doesn’t fit with the electorate and him backing of Dutton won’t go down well at all in Eastern Melbourne. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Getup pour a lot of resources into the seat

yes much more likely to swing than Ashton or Casey

I would say this will fall to the labor party as Malcolm Turnbull was extremely popular through this seat and the electors are not going to like the fact that Sukkar was part of ousting him.

Bob
Malcolm Turnbull would still be PM if all the lefties who now express support for him had backed him in Parliament. He had opposition from half of Liberal Party but all of the National, Katter, Greens and ALP. Every one on the left is just as responsible for the defeat of Turnbull as Liberals such as Sukkar.
If ALP thought so much of him they could have moved a vote of confidence in him.
If this had happened we would be going into an election with a Liberal party torn into two competing groups and probably facing 23 years in wilderness.

Shorten gave his first press conference for the campaign here, and not in more marginal seats in Victoria. Labor must be serious about taking this seat

In all honesty I cannot see either of the two major parties ever governing for the people. Once in power wither of them will feed themselves and the people becomes dry.

Michael Sukkar lost much of my confidence when he did not vote for the marriage equality back in 2016 and he was pivotal in the leadership spill in August 2018. This leadership challenge totally lost all confidence in the LNP.

I am worried that Bill Shorten will be another Mark Latham especially his thuggish behaviour to a small business proprietor as many of them work hard and long hours for minimum amount. What will he be should he become prime minister.

I might have to vote informal.

Boatswain1025
Nah cmon !!. If labor got this they would already have 25+ seat majority. Where is the advantage in that ? Just more ambitious, frustrated, & over entitled back benchers !!. Where is the pay off??

I live in Deakin but will no longer be supporting the Liberal Party, or more accurately Sukkar. Even though the electorate had a 66% vote of Yes he decided to abstain. His support for Dutton was the final straw in losing my vote. I’m 35 and this will be my first time not putting the Liberal candidate as my first preference. It would also seem many of my neighbours I have spoken to in recent months feel exactly the same way. I loath the idea of Shorten as PM, but I now loath Sukkar even more. He’s not a man of his word and is far more interested in playing palace intrigue than representing the views of his electorate. I’ll be glad to see the back of him.

WD

Honestly I wouldn’t be too surprised to see a situation where labor wins seats like this and Higgins but doesn’t pick up more marginal seats in QLD.

Still think labor will get somewhere between 85-90 seats

Boatswain1025

I agree that is a possibility and would explain why we are not seeing a blow out in the TPP in the polling.

Boatswain 1025
Honestly i think you are going to be disappointed .For what you are suggesting to happen, the govt would have to be a whole different level of incompetent, & the ALP would have to convince everyone that no one was going to get hurt. Like Rudd did in 2007.
Perhaps you believe that the govt has done a less than credible job. However the ALP are utterly determined to injure significant sections of the community, & are quite unmoved, if not uncomprehending of the risks they are taking in doing so. This will limit their success.

My prediction is that they will be lucky to win 11 seats & lose 3. That means a minority govt just. They could however get luckier, but the chances are against it.

Winediamond

I currently have the government losing around 20-25 seats but depending on the campaign that will probably narrow, on one hand its good to see an opposition being upfront about its planned tax policies but those same policies will probably save the Liberals in a couple seats and I can see seats like Higgins swinging far more than some of the marginals in Queensland might as the picture in north Queensland seems fluid and complex with the likes of ONP, Katter and PUP. The government’s problem is that it needs to gain a swing in seats to retain office and that is a hard task for a government seeking a third term.

TPTMTBP
Well we’ll see soon enough. I don’t agree about your view on Labor being upfront. That is impossible simply because they are so stupid as not to comprehend the obvious flaws, & dangers in their policies. Fundamentally how can these clowns be upfront about things they don’t even understand !!?? Reckless disregard doesn’t come close. The effect (apprehension) will go much further than “a couple of seats”
The whole of Queenland is fluid not just the north. Victoria seems committed to Labor , however how likely is it for labor to win more than 4 seats (assuming it already has Fraser, & Dunkley) ? Probably a couple in WA. Anything more is less likely. Anyway that’s how i see it

cheers WD

God help us if the potato head backer get’s in again. We really have to start tackling climate change seriously and Sukkar will never make this issue a priority.
Go Shireen, you appear so serene, go kick out Sukkar who appears such a F*&@#r.

Lots of misinformation on the marriage definition vote here. The result was a small majority for yes in Deakin, as oppose to the 49% yes nationally (that’s 63% of 79.5% turnout for those of you confused and misled by the media).
Michael is an advocate for the major issues that are important to the area.
Protecting small business
East West Link (the most important infrastructure project in Victoria)
Getting dangerous ideology out of schools, including the (un)Safe Schools program.
And yes, he supports sports and many other organisations which are the making of communities and what is important to many in these types of areas.
Or to put it another way.
Lower taxes for hard workers
Lower taxes for businesses who employ the (=more capacity to create jobs)
Better facilities for people’s spare time a rubies, including keeping kids active
Quicker commutes to give families more time together, and note spare time
Get control of education back with parents not the Cultural Marxists

Galaxy seat poll just out tonight has Deakin at Lib 51 (-5.4) to ALP 49 (+5.4) from a 540 sample.

Cliffhanger. The poll seems to indicate that the federal Labor vote is tracking Labor’s performance at the recent State Election. The independent Vickie Jenson listed second on the ballot paper is preferencing directly to Sukkar.

That Galaxy seat poll looks about right. Small sample size means bit of a MOE either way makes it anyone’s game.

I’m tipping Sukkar to narrowly hold on, but younger undecided voters will break towards Labor/Green by Saturday, might be enough to get them over the line.