Cooper – Australia 2019

The Greens candidate wasn’t present at the Greens campaign announcement and doesn’t seem to be getting the “winnable seat” treatment, while Adam Pulford in Wills still is.

I think the Greens have decided the messaging issues of running a high profile campaign against Ged Kearney weren’t worth it for an “incoming Labor government” election. They seem to be similarly quiet on Grayndler and Sydney. This would mean every Greens “target seat” has either a Liberal incumbent, or a Labor Right candidate (Macnamara, Wills, Richmond) – this will help the Greens a lot with clear messaging about their intentions this election.

Victorian Socialists should do well here from disgruntled Greens voters, but not enough to threaten Kearney either directly or via preferences.

At any rate, without a high profile Greens candidate and an effort to paint the seat as winnable, it’s an ALP retain.

Was in Northcote today not one Greens’ poster to be seen, a few Labor & Vic Socialists, big change from 2016

Does the average punter actually understand or care about what faction a candidate belongs to? (Admittedly I do vote based on this level of granular detail – but I’m a major politics geek.)
Arguably the ALP factions are more about patronage than ideology, and the so called “right” tend to be centrists with the exception of the Shoppies – and even then not all Shoppies are created equal…
I haven’t seen any Greens material in Wills accusing Khalil of being “right wing” or messaging tailored around this…

Paco
In most seats no, but green voters DO know the ALP factions, since many will have friends etc in there and many of the older ones will have been ex ALP members.

Remember the greens and the ALP left draw from the SAME pool. Issues such as Adani and renewables etc are well known.

Pacochick
Welcome. Is this your first time post ?. Liked both, but unfortunately the seats themselves aren’t as interesting as what you said. What are you’re thoughts on Melbourne, & Bandt ?

Very big chance from 2016 and the by-election.

The greens candidate has barely any likes or supporters on Facebook.

Easy hold for Labor

I’m going to say that labor will hold this seat comfortably. They botched their chances in the by-election and the treatment of Alex Bhathal has left a sour taste in their mouths. I’m expecting a big swing to labor and progressive minor parties.

Agreed, Labor will increase their margin in Cooper this time around. There seems to have been little Greens attention on winning the seats north of the river this time, their attention is more focused on Macnamara, Higgins & Kooyong in the south & east.

Strategically it’s probably clever in the long term because they have long been accused by Labor of only targeting Labor seats, whereas two of their three main targets this time are Liberal-held, with the Labor seat being vulnerable to the Liberals at some stage (certainly not this election) and having such a tiny 3PP margin vs Labor, particularly after the addition of Windsor, that it would be crazy not to focus attention on.

I think the Greens do better in Labor seats when Labor are in government, not opposition. So it’s a good idea to target Liberal seats in an election where the Liberals are possibly headed for a double-digit backlash in Melbourne’s inner southeast, killing the perception that they only take seats off Labor, letting Labor get as big a majority as possible, and then target the northern suburbs next time when Labor are in government and they can focus on where they have fallen short on particular issues while governing.

Ged Kearney is a huge upgrade over Feeney too so I imagine a lot of Labor-left voters who voted Greens in 2016 and returned to Labor in 2018 will likely stick with them for a while.

Yep can’t see the Greens winning here if they couldn’t win it in a by election with no lib running. Shows what impact a strong candidate running has

Greens should be able to pick this one up after a term of Labor government (unless Shorten’s Labor turns out to be super progressive), but this election Kearney is heading for a sophomore surge and the Greens are at a low point in terms of organisation locally. There may be some buyers remorse for Ged Kearney’s failure to change Labor’s policy, but not enough to get a swing to Greens even on byelection figures.

I also think they don’t want the hassle of being seen to target progressive Labor MPs in an incoming Labor government election. They aren’t going in hard on Albo or Plibersek either.

I personally don’t think we will see big swings to Labor, despite the incumbency. The Greens may have run a poor campaign locally, but their national campaign has been pretty well thought out. I think perhaps a 1-3% increase in margin.

A liberal running would remove primary votes from the ALP’s column probably.

Terrible result for the Greens here, even allowing that Labor have a far better candidate this time around.

Never mind winning, the Greens are barely beating the Liberals into second place!

Ridiculous changing the name from Batman as John Batman and John Pascoe Fawkner founded the Port Phillip settlement in 1834 now know as Melbourne. Batman’s wife Eliza gave her name to Mt Eliza near Frankston too.

Cooper is a more modern historical figure from the period around WW2 but his name could have been given to a new electorates in Melbourne rapidly increasing population.

Adrian
Left wing subversives want all names of those who brought British civilisation to Australia wiped off face of the atlas and history books.
They regard Batman as part of a right wing conspiracy. However the time to argue this was during the redistribution not by winging about it a few years later.
In recent Qld redistribution just about every resident of Highfields sent in a submission demanding that the draft map be rejected and that they put back into Darling Downs???? And taken out of Groom???? ie they were part of Toowoomba not Bundaberg.

People don’t like John Batman because of all the genocide.

I have heard that Batman shot or displaced a few blacks who were stealing, but I have not seen any proof and other people were killed or displaced during the colonial era but most aborigines died of disease brought here by settlers like what happened in Tasmania and on other continents. It does not change the fact that Batman and Fawkner got the settlement going in 1834 and helped establish agrarian industries too.

If the land had not been settled predominately by Anglo-Saxon/Celts bringing with it the excellent form of British government and justice which the state and commonwealth later copied we now could be speaking French, Portuguese, Spanish or Dutch or even American God forbid. Look at all those basket cases countries in South America, USA, Philippines etc.

Think Highfields was part of Toowoomba Nth the more marginal seat and a part that votes heavily non labour
the redistribution proposed moving that into an alt seat the nats led a campaign against that