Senate – Queensland – Australia 2016

I would be very surprised if the Brick isn’t returned.

The Qld Senate race is going to be a tough one. Like you said Pauline hot on her run on her near victory in the state seat of Lockyer in 2015 and close run in Beaudesert in 2012 makes her a real chance in her home state. KAP holding the balance of power remarkably well in the Qld government also puts them in the race now that the Palmer factor has gone. I see it this way.
Pauline with maybe the help of the Anti Islmamic group the ALA
Kap with the support of FF (who in 2010 polled 4%) making it a 50/50 bet
or a second green (Andrew Bartlett who himself almost took the seat of Brisbane in 2010) with the ALP overflow. (Chisholm is running though and he may decide that KAP is the better option as he did in 2013)
But its an open and interesting field as Lazarus is claiming he has 11% (dont know where he got those figures as the best I can find place him at about 2%) and the big question who if any is the LNP going to past their overflow to if they are going to have some say in the 10’s of thousands of votes that may be wasted if they take the expected one vote road.

Tony is right as usual but on the list I saw on the Tally Room there were no KAP candidates listed. Whilst other sources indicate that Rowell Walton and Joy Marriott are endorsed as KAP Senate candidates.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

I’m just using the list from Wikipedia – it’s obviously incomplete until nominations close.

What, no booth maps?! :p

This is the hardest of all states to pick.
Who knows where all of the ex-Palmer vote will go, I would suspect mostly to Labor, although a substantial amount to the LNP, a rump will stay with Lazarus and some will go to KAP, and the rest is anyones guess.

I’d suspect 5 LNP, 4 Labor, 1 Green and the final seats could go down to an extra seat for each of the LNP, Labor and the Greens, with Hanson, Lazarus and KAP in with a chance.

I think Pauline Hanson will have a real advantage in having lower house candidates across the state. She will have volunteers covering more booths than katter and lazarus.

Also do not underestimate Xenophon he has corflutes out in seats where he has no lower house candidate.

Queensland Observer is correct about booth workers. A House of Reps candidate effectively becomes the Campaign Manager for Senate candidate iin House of REps SEat.

Some Queensland seats have huge numbers of booths. Kennedy had 134 booths at last election . City electorates have no more than 25 booths. Even distributing HTV to Booth Captains becomes a nightmare. If Booth Captain is a no show in Griffith Candidate’s Campaign Manger has 5 Km to travel. Bob Katter’s Campaign manager may have up to 1000 km between him and booth captain.

I wonder if the Australian Liberty Alliance will end up doing a lot better than suspected here and in NSW/WA. They seem to be flying under the radar a bit as far as the mainstream media are concerned. They may end up surprising a few people.

@GNav
They seem to be trying to go after disgruntled conservatives, especially ones who are still tasting sour grapes after Abbott got deposed. They are running quite a few lower house candidates here and there, but I can’t see them getting anybody elected. It would be in their benefit to merge with Hanson and One Nation because in effect they are chasing the exact same voters.
I’d be a mixture of shocked, surprised and slightly scared if they got someone elected.

They’re talking a good game on the comments section of various Murdoch articles. We’ll see how tightly their preferences flow — with any luck, they’ll all just end up electing Lindgren.

Looks like the new senate voting rules are starting to have the desired effect… the Sex & HEMP parties are running joint tickets.

http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/news/sex-hemp-and-nude-beach-tours-has-he-got-your-vote/3038460/

https://australianhempparty.com/3584/sex-marijuana-parties-share-joint-senate-tickets

Not that I am interested in this though.

Should work out fairly nicely for them; I expect they’ll crack 2%. Might pick up residual Greens prefs if their lead beats out Bartlett, at which point they’d also be in a good position to pick up LDP prefs… Lazarus aside they’re probably the Left’s best hope for the sixth seat.

(I expect Labor’s vote to lift, but only by a couple of percent, just enough to get them over the 4th-DD-quota line. Likewise the LNP primary should be steady – as it has been as of 2007). If Lindgren can collect preferences reasonably efficiently she’s a good chance for the final seat.

The HEMP party running a joint ticket. Naturally.

I think people are underestimating the effect of PUP’s disappearance on the senate vote, here in Queensland. The Greens lost more than half their vote to PUP, and I think we’re going to see a significant chunk of that return to the Greens.

The SHEMP joint ticket (heh) is probably going to grab some Greens votes, but I expect that will also flow back to Greens on preferences, moreso than it used to, since they were probably influenced strongly by the party ballots (HEMP had Labor ahead of the Greens, remarkably enough, and they had the No Carbon Tax party well ahead of them – definitely a “microparty deal” situation), and I suspect that both Sex and HEMP party supporters will probably preference the Greens among their top 6 groups.

Which mostly leaves the Lazarus factor… and I suspect that Lazarus isn’t going to get nearly the support that Palmer got, if only because he doesn’t have anywhere near as much money to pump into the system. I suspect that Lazarus, as a substitute for PUP, will lose votes to NXT and to the Greens.

I don’t think Hanson will do very well – she’ll get a decent first-preference vote, but not enough for a quota, and I don’t see a lot of people preferencing her if they don’t give her their first preference. And the “anyone but the majors” (LNP/Labor/Greens) attitude will probably end up benefiting NXT most, followed by Lazarus, then Hanson. But I think the Greens will get a bump because they’re seen as the most plausible alternative to LNP or Labor.

It’s subject to re-evaluation closer to the date, but my prediction at this point is: 5 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 Green, 1 NXT, with the NXT being the last one elected and being neck-and-neck with Lazarus (who could come out ahead – that’s my secondary prediction if NXT doesn’t get up).

@Glen
I agree with nearly everything you have to say, The Greens got a drubbing here last time around, they have a few lower house seats which they should have serious gains in this time around (Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith) and they should get around 12-13% statewide for the senate.

I don’t know how Lazarus or Hanson will do, nor does anyone else. It’s really difficult to judge their level of support.

I think this will be one of the better state’s for Xenophon due to the “anybody else” vote, although once again who knows how well he will really do.

I’d suggest that the result will be 5 LNP – 4 Labor – 2 Green, and the last seat, well thats anyones guess.

L96 – the only uncertainly regarding NXT is that it’s a “non-queensland” minor party. That may hurt them, in favour of Lazarus. Hence my suggestion that the last seat will go to NXT, but Lazarus might edge them out.

I don’t think Hanson will do particularly well. Before NXT and Lazarus/PUP, she probably would have gotten a seat. But much of her support tends to come from the “none of the majors, and someone who will ‘defend australia’ economically” – both Lazarus and NXT fill that gap nicely, and don’t come with the racist undertones that Hanson brings.

Arguably in Queensland, many of those conservative-protectionist people have gone to Katter.

As a rough idea of what they’ve got to play around with, in 2013, Rise Up + One Nation + Aus First + Protectionist got a solid 1.35%, add in KAP on 2.94 and DLP on 0.32 for 4.61%. So I’m hoping that the KAP primary holds up and that Hanson and ALA can’t add too much more to the combined primary.

Alex – the problem is leakage and exhaustion. Unlike previous elections, where vote 1 above the line meant your vote followed party designation, and many of those would pass to KAP before majors, this election there’s going to be a lot of people who don’t forward preferences to KAP.

Some will leak to Lazarus or NXT, and some will exhaust because those voters are relatively likely to keep voting “1” (which is considered valid, but doesn’t follow the instructions on the ballot). So I think many of those “conservative-protectionist” votes will leak or exhaust before going to KAP.

It doesn’t help that KAP is seen as primarily a north-queensland rural party. NXT and Lazarus will be seen by the majority of Queenslanders as being the more natural choice.

A source of mine this evening suggests Lambie is polling well and is a chance here vs Hanson. Apparently Lazarus behind them. NXT not even in the game. Not sure about ALA.

No help on the ballot draw for the notable minor parties. Lazarus, Hanson, Lambie Network, NXT and ALA all drew columns in the middle of the ballot.

KAP drew no 9

Some fun facts:

Labor is running 6 candidates, LNP is running 8 candidates…
… but the Greens are running a full 12 candidates, the only party to do so. They’re rather optimistic, I think.

The following other parties have more than two candidates: One Nation, Lazarus, Family First, ALA. Also arguably Sex/HEMP, but only because they’re running a joint ticket.

Speaking about SHEMP, they’ve got three candidates between them – they went Sex, HEMP, Sex. I’m sure a joke could be made from that…

Very similar to the NSW ballot, the LDP is positioned fairly early on the ballot, but LNP are just 2 slots away, so they’re unlikely to get confused.

PUP and Lazarus were put adjacent to each other, in positions AB and AC, respectively…
… followed by Lambie in AD.

There are 19 ungrouped candidates.

There’s been some suggestion that running lots of candidates will help a group stand out on the ballot.

Twelve is excessive for the Greens though. They do have form in running way more candidates than necessary — see NSW and VIC last election.

Seriously, run as many candidates as you think have a chance (or, y’know, two, if you’re a micro). That’s about 16-18 grand they could have better spent on materiel. Hope they’re happy.

There will be 11 unhappy Senate candidates for the greens

Alex – in NSW, the majors (and the CDP) are all running 12 candidates.

The argument is the same as the one made in seats where you’ve pretty much got no chance of winning. Better to be able to say that you’re running for all possible seats. Plus, as you say, it helps to make you stand out more.

Interestingly, LDP is exactly 2 slots away from Liberals in QLD, NSW, Vic, and WA, and 3 slots away in SA. The only state where LDP is well-separated from Liberals is Tasmania.

The Greens would be a real chance for two here, they had such an awful result last time around they surely are going to have a significant rebound

Update: They’re definitely doing it for the visibility. And I was part-wrong about the nomination deposits – they’ll get it all back as long as the group gets over 4%.

I think if you get over 4% primary you are (almost) guaranteed one of the last two spots. Getting your deposit back and still missing out (to some amazing vote harvester or the very last person on a ticket) would be a pretty ordinary consolation prize.

My mum is postal voting, and so tonight we’ve been marvelling at the sheer size of the ballot paper.

She raises a very interesting point about tickets with a full 12 candidates — she thinks lots of people would prefer to just fill out 1-12 down the ticket below the line than to search for the other five parties above the line. This could have significant exhaustion implications, although here in Qld it will of course only apply to the Greens.

Can someone enlighten me as to how this goes in NSW for their upper house? Admittedly in NSW you need only vote [1] above the line.

Glen Lazarus Team have some presumably pricey TV spots in Queensland markets during the State of Origin broadcast.

So did the LDP.

Meanwhile, the Liberals and two different unions had ads during MasterChef. Amusingly, all three went for the ‘authoritative male voiceover’ shtick.

Apparently, according to David Crowe of the Australian (I’m reading this on PollBludger, the actual article requires subscription), Hanson and Lazarus aren’t seen as being quite as “likely” to get senate seats up here than is Hinch, Day, or Leyonhjelm in their respective states, but that they shouldn’t be written off entirely.

If it has to be one of them (Hanson and Lazarus), please let it be Lazarus.

The Poll Bludger’s model QLD Senate results ( https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/06/28/senate-day-queensland-2/ ) show 5 Coalition, 4 Labor and 1 Green, with the final two seats going to minor parties, with KAP, Glen Lazarus and Pauline Hanson best placed but a lot of guesswork involved.

LDP ads running during Seven local news in regional Queensland. As mentioned also randuring state of origin.

I assume they will not man booths in regional areas so are relying on the ads. I guess in Brisbane they will be manning booths which will help. Maybe outside chances with family first. You would still have to favour Hanson or Lazarus.

Speaking of which i have had senate how to votes for NXT, ALA, Palmer and Hanson is the mail.

Apparently a well-regarded Griffith University political scientist has suggested that the last two seats are going to go to two of Hanson, Lazarus, or Bartlett (Greens #2).

I can’t see the Greens getting close to a second quota. I think if Hanson doesn’t get a quota, she will be close enough to easily get there. The last seat will be between Lazarus, Lindgren, Katter and maybe the LDP guy. Other sizeable votes to Family First, Xenophon, ALA, but not enough to win a seat.

QO, I think you might underestimate the Greens’ support. They had a significant loss in numbers in 2013 that are likely to at least partially be regained in 2016.

I would estimate the vote the Greens need to be in the running for a second seat to be 9%, which would require them to reclaim less than half of the numbers they lost in 2013.

They get second preferences from most Pirate Party, Animal Justice, Cyclists, and Renewable Energy voters (based on their HTV cards), as well as a decent chunk from Sex/Hemp voters (who are probably going to add Greens to their ballot in spite of the Sex/Hemp HTV not explicitly listing them).

That alone gets them somewhere around 2.5% more, based on previous numbers, which puts them at 1.495 quotas. If Labor does well, they’ll get a full 4 quotas in their own right, and some of their overflow will go to Greens, too. So let’s say 1.6 quotas.

After factoring in exhaustion of votes, 0.6 quotas should be enough to get a seat. If there are two seats left in play and only two candidates left in the count, those candidates get the seats. So as long as Greens are one of the two left standing, they’ll get the seat.

Note that I haven’t included Drug Law Reform, Marriage Equality, Arts Party, or Secular Party, who haven’t shared their HTV with ABC (which is where I’m viewing the HTVs), but who are likely to preference the Greens (or their voters will probably put the Greens quite high). Also notable are the open HTVs of Progressives, Socialist Equality, and some Liberal Democrats and Nick Xenophon voters, which don’t specify all six (some specify three or four). After these, I could definitely see the Greens ending at about 0.8 quotas, which would guarantee a seat, I think.

Personally, I think KAP is more likely to get the seat than Hanson. I do think Lazarus will end up getting one of the seats. So I’d say, in order of likelihood of getting one of the seats, I’d say Lazarus, Greens, KAP, and then ONP.

Crikey has predicted that LNP will get 5 seats, and Labor will get 4 seats, and won’t have enough votes left over to get another quota. Greens will get 1 seat, and Pauline Hanson and Glenn Lazarus will pick up the last two spots.

Glen: The HTV cards of parties like the Pirate Party, Animal Justice, Cyclists etc are pretty irrelevant, since those types of parties just won’t have the booth workers to put those HTV cards into enough sweaty hands.

Political night watchman: The Crikey predictions are the Poll Bludger ones I mentioned upthread. There wasn’t a lot in it between the last three parties fighting over the last two seats.

Hanson will easily get in, possibly a quota in her own right. She also benefits from preferences from the ALA, Democratic Labor, Shooters, Katter and a couple of others. Lazarus will be around 4 or 5% and benefit from Family First and Labor.

I cant see a second green catching them or a fifth Labor. I can see a sixth LNP beating Lazarus if their is only a small over quota from Labor. This is due to the LNP vote improving so I think they will be at 5.5 quotas or more. Still more likely 5/4/1 with Lazarus and Hanson.

kme – do you really think that people voting for Pirate, AJ, Cyclists, etc, aren’t going to put Greens in their top 6?

Probably but HTVs won’t have much to do with it.

Remember too that for the Greens to actually benefit from those preferences they’ll need to start with enough surplus after their first candidate is elected to stay in the count and not get eliminated before those minors.

True, kme – that’s why I suggested a primary vote of 9%. Seems plausible, considering that they had 12.7% in 2010.

LNP five senate seats, Labor four senate seats, Greens one senate seat, and Pauline Hanson one senate seat.

The question now who will win the last senate spot. Some have suggested One Nation have a chance at the secound spot, but poll bludger believe it will be a fight between Family First and the Liberal Democrats. Greens have not made there quota yet for one, so I doubt they will be in the running for the last spot.

I over estimated the LNP I vote but was spot on about Labor only getting to 4, the Greens being nowhere near a second and Hanson making a quota.

Family First did a little better than I thought, Lazarus not as well. Basically the last seat is as per my prediction just swap Lazarus and Family First around.

I’ve been doing some relatively detailed modelling on the Qld result and I’m actually getting KAP as the favorite for the final seat after 5 LIB 4 LAB 1 GRN 1 ON. Actually getting the second One Nation candidate as a bigger threat than Family First.

While Family First get a lot of small preferences, I get KAP overtaking them with the help of Lazarus preferences. I’m only assuming a 35% compliance with HTV cards for the parties that didn’t have a wide booth presence. The rest of preferences I’m modelling randomly with weightings towards parties with consistent policies (obviously some subjective inputs here).

I have this great model and would really like to get some better preference data to feed it. Serious question – does anyone know a minor party candidate that could use a scrutineer?

I don’t put much stock in any predictions of how the final seats will fall in the state Senate races at this point – I don’t think anyone really has any idea of how preferences will flow and votes exhaust at this stage. All we can really say at the moment with any confidence is that those on a quota or very close to it should get a seat.