New England – Australia 2016

This is already quite a bizarre comeback campaign from Windsor, and I think his prospects will depend on the impression local voters have of why he’s coming back and who is behind his campaign.

Windsor built his career on being a local grassroots politician who represented local interests. Arguably the circumstances surrounding the Gillard minority government may have undermined this image, but I would think it is still his strength and his political identity. Yet this campaign got off to a start that appears radically at odds with that identity his past support has been built upon. He announced his candidacy not in the electorate, but far away in Canberra for the Canberra press gallery. Reports emerged of a plan for a field of up to 10 minor party candidates to contest the seat to direct preferences to him. And it has seemed to me on some occasions that he’s being heavily influenced by outside advisers, a dead giveaway being his stated opposition to Senate voting reform, the kind of diminishing of the power of political parties which independents have historically supported.

The appearance of Windsor’s comeback being engineered from outside may not necessarily prevail with New England voters though. If it does, then I thnk Joyce wins because it contradicts Windsor’s entire political persona. It’s not clear that it will though. Whilst people may not have been happy at the time with the post-2010 situation, Windsor did have a long history of being well-respected by the electorate and I suspect the troubles of the Abbott government will have helped restore some of this respect. He may well be well-respected enough to overcome any negative perceptions of his campaign, which again I say may not percolate down to the electorate anyway.

Nick C
Windsor won’t get past his history in supporting Gillard. The National’s base is just too solid here.

A lot of people very much doubted Windsor for backing the ALP in 2010, yet the chaos and incompetence of Tony Abbott as PM should unequivocally prove he made the right decision.

I would say that supporting Gillard hurt Windsor, especially in New England, but for the most part he has been vindicated since Abbott has come and gone.
In the end I can’t see Joyce losing here, the whole anyone but Joyce vibe is coming from everywhere but New England.
As well Windsor’s campaign is rather different to all of his previous attempts, this time around he seems to have an activist base and external funding.

Given the penchant this area has had for electing independents, at both state and federal level, that Nationals base is not particularly loyal.

It was a shame both Windsor and Oakeshott didn’t contest the last election. It would have been fascinating to find out just where the level of support stood for these once very popular MPs. Alas, both ran from a fight.

I think the anti-Gillard anger has abated and Windsor stands a chance of regaining his old support base. Indeed the ire directed towards Windsor in particular was very unfair. His previous support of a minority NSW Liberal government was surely proof that he was no Labor partisan. Indeed, given the national embarrassment that was the Abbott govt of 2013-2015, it’s now clear TW made the right choice.

He’s the underdog, but not a long-shot.

GG
Two wrongs don’t make a right.
Windsor didn’t have to choose, or do a deal.
He could have insisted that Labor govern as a minority, as he did with Greiner.
This would have held them to a higher standard in every respect.
Shock f#@* ing horror we might have even achieved a consensus government. As opposed to the adversarial rubbish we have had.

GG
Abbott was not great PM. However he was very far from the worst, & in the face of the most obdurate senate in the history of the commonwealth achieved some success.
Gillard was without doubt the worst PM in our country’s history, & led the worst, & least successful govt, by any (rational) measurement.
So on balance history has proven Windsor made a piss poor decision.

Will disagree with that all day. Abbott was undoubtedly the worst PM in history, Gillard was a disappointment but never presided over anything as spectacularly awful as the 2014 budget.

L96, & DW
There has been no abatement of anger over the RGR govt with Nationals voters, as you will see soon enough. When Windsor sold out, he went from being one of us (i.e. from the bush) to being one of them.
Country people remember that kind of disingenuous betrayal, & don’t forgive.
Barnaby , & MT will have smoothed over all those Abbott wrinkles, no worries at all.
Windsor has no chance here .

GG
Ah the dreaded 2014 budget.
Mate it NEVER EVER happened.
Nothing got through the senate !!!.
It was a mirage, a non -event, a mere footnote in history.
Judging something that didn’t happen is beyond oxymoronic, it is INSANE.

I await with interest your posts on Warringah, & what Abbott did that was so incredibly damaging to the nation.
As for Gillard
1/ she was a lawyer
2/ she was a union lawyer
3/ she was a crook union lawyer
One day there will be an UNDERBELLY 12 !!!

WD
Yes she was a Lawyer, not a union lawyer, but instead for Slater and Gordon who advocate for workers, their is a difference. Finally, I thought it was well established that it was not her who partook in such behaviour, in fact it was her partner.

L96
1/ She acted for unions == SAME thing
2/ She knew what Wilson was up to , unless she was a complete idiot, or incompetent.
3/ clearly she spent some cash on her little house.
4/ wait for Underbelly 12.

If you have some specific allegation against Gillard, make it and risk the defo suit, or stfu.

Just some of my thoughts on this rather heated discussion:

Can we say something re: a candidate without someone getting offended!? This is politics not some afternoon tea party for goodness sake! IMO Gillard rightly deserves to be derided as a failure. Whilst I do not think she was definitively *the worst* I think it is plain that she was *one* of the worst PM’s in Australia’s history, only beaten by perhaps McMahon?

The people are always right and they made a decision on the Gillard government. Polls consistently said that she was going to be destroyed. Just let that sink in for a moment, not defeated, completely and utterly obliterated. It was going to be well-past Howard-esque by the end stages, devolving well and truly into something as bad as 1975/77. The only question that remained was whether the destruction would be as bad as 1966 or even worse, 1931. Abbott was far from a great PM but by no means the worst, at least he actually won an election!

As for the New England electorate, I am filled with rage at Tony Windsor! How dare he, knowing that his electorate was a conservative one, abandon those principles to slip into bed with Labor. And then to scurry off into retirement because he KNEW he would be annihilated at the polls, the cowardice!

What no one seems to be looking at is the fact that the polls in this seat have Windsor down to 32% of FP. This is a 30% decrease from the vote he was receiving in all his reelection campaigns, and even worse in 2001 when he first contested the seat, at least he outpolled the Nationals that time. What we see now is him below Joyce by ~ 7% or so! This is a precipitous drop! Seat polls are not very accurate, but I doubt they are understating his support by 30%. This just shows how much support he has lost in the electorate.

All in all, I think this is a pretty damning indictment of Windsor’s decision to support the ALP.

kme
There was a woile royal commission into just some of this.
What is little ole me going to do !!??. Are you barking mad ???
Believe it or not there are a great many ex – pollies i hate far more passionately than Jules, so if i were to focus it wouldn’t be on her.
Besides , she is a fabulous living monument to all that is wrong with that side of politics
Btw if she was so terrific, why isn’t she on the campaign trail, with Hawkey, & JWH ??.

Lol you right wingers sure do get more vicious now that Phoney Tony lasted shorter then Julia.

Don’t forget she was beaten by Tony as the worst PM in history, talk about a failure, had 90 seats and still managed to stuff up. Yes Julia didn’t govern perfectly in a hung parliament but she sure does have more achievements to her name then Tony does. And no Tony didn’t win that election, labor lost is because as soon as Rudd and Gillard were gone they remembered they HATE Tony Abbott.

No there was no decision made on Julia by people as she didn’t take labor to an election, but i suppose its a double standard considering Tony was taking his party to the same obliteration but by all means make no mention of that 🙂

Windsor was vindicated because had he supported Abbott in a hung parliament look what would have happened what a complete idiot after watching labor destroy themselves the liberals go ahead and do the same thing which makes them worse. Windsor would have won by a much reduced margin but still would have won, he achieved more for the electorate then any member has and thats not forgotten. and you can’t have it both ways, criticising individual polls and then using it to base an argument that Tony is not doing well at all. Lets wait until election night to see how the voters really feel.

@Dan could have fooled me seeing as how he won a majority of seats. It does not matter whether the electorate turned to Abbott or merely rejected Labor, the point is that the Coalition won. Everything else you say is just a declarative statement which means nothing. I can just as well say that Tony has more achievements to her name than Julia does, but that’s just my opinion.

No decision was made formally at an election but the polls were pretty conclusive. You make the point that she lasted longer than Tony, that is right, only ~ 2 months out from an election with polls in the toilet. You forget that Tony never had polls as nearly as bad as hers (don’t get me wrong, they were atrocious though) and not nearly as consistent either. Plus he was ousted ~ 1 year out from an election, we do not really know where the electorate was definitively headed other than a general pro-Labor swing (as many first-term governments face) I doubt Gillard could have turned her destruction around within 2 months.

Windsor was not vindicated at all. Why is it so hard to accept that the public hated Labor? There were polls in the low to mid 60s 2PP for the Coalition which is complete and utter devestation. It makes sense to extrapolate therefore, that Windsor would have been severely punished for his role in propping up a Labor government, something diametrically opposed to the conservative bent of his electorate. You cannot know whether he would have been returned but IMO I think that would have been very unlikely considering the extent of public anger.

I don’t particularly understand your last point? I am not criticising any individual poll, but pointing to consistently bad polling for Gillard. With regards to Windsor’s seat poll, I made the point that individual seat polling whilst not entirely accurate, cannot be discounted and the fact remains that despite all of Windsor’s so-called ‘achievements’ it is irrefutable that he has encountered a precipitous decline in support from his electorate – polls can be wrong, but I doubt this one is 30% off!

BTW nothing I said was ‘vicious’, I think your bias is flashing like neon lights my friend 😉

Well then Wreathy Julia won after 2010 and had a higher 2PP vote so she won the election contrary to your statement that she hand’t won an election. Also I would actually love to know what Tony achieved because it sure is hard to think of anything.

Cmon I know you tories have a soft spot for Tony but everyone knew he was going to lead them to a train wreck 6 months after he was elected. You also selectively forget that Julia was polling 50/50 a year before the election so that rubbishes your claim their that the polls were consistent. Tony would have gone early as he is a nut job after that by-election that you would have lost were it not for malcolm.

I’m not saying the public didn’t hate labor but its clear Tony couldn’t give stability at all he was a complete failure. Mid 60s please find those polls for me as that is complete nonsense. Its also a bit rich for a bunch of city people to know how country people vote, I wouldn’t even think you were in New England area at all between 2010-2013. I think that poll is wrong and is reflective of the undecided or couldn’t care less at the moment voters.

It was my liberal friend you tories are just very sensitive these days since Tony left. But as much as I’d love to go around in this circle lets move on shall we 🙂

@Dan You and I both know that the 2PP is not determinative of who wins the election. Otherwise Howard would not have won in 1998 when he lost with 49%.

As for Gillard’s polling, I’m sorry you are very wrong. Sure there are a few outliers and some better results, but on the whole destruction and in a much worse and more potent form than Abbott. Abbott’s destruction never reached above 57.5%, whereas as polls here show, Gillard was in the mud much worse than that. Everyone can see for themselves: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Australian_federal_election,_2013

BTW if you are looking for the polls I was citing (I did say LOW – mid 60s) you can find the most obvious examples in that link, try Nielson on the 14 – 16 of July, 2011 (61%) and Morgan on the 13 – 14 of July (60%). Look at the surrounding polls for further evidence of the electorate’s hatred.

So I suppose we should close down this whole thread because a lot of us are a bunch of city people commenting on the behaviour of the regions? Give me a break. People have predictable patterns and when the antipathy is so widespread I find it unlikely to believe that New England voters would buck that trend. Finally we’ve reached the substance of your claim: you don’t believe the poll. That’s fine, we shall see how the voters go. I can tell you, Windsor will not be getting anything near what he used to, if he even wins which I doubt.

Sensitive? No. Angry at revisionists, already trying to rewrite history? Yes!

Yes, let us move on shall we?

Well as I recall labor was in government after the 2010 election and won the 2PP vote so therefore Julia won an election so I suggest you accept it and move on.

As far as the link showed, it tells me they were both as bad as each other and I also don’t see any of that made up of low mid 60s which would be 63 2PP so sorry if i have trouble accepting your word

The point I’m making is that there is no evidence about voters attitude towards Windsor post 2010 election so just keep in mind that when making general statements about how people feel thats all i was saying no need to take it so over the top.

ok mate its just stating evidence not rewriting history

Glad you agree and i will see you on another seat thread I’m sure 🙂

despite the heat of discussion this will be a close contest

I agree Mick I think that Windsor will have an edge over Joyce in the smaller communities and probably in Tamworth where he has been based for decades. It will come down to whether Joyce can outperform in Armidale which underperformed for him last time with the main independent challenger being based there. I’d say given how much Windsor secured for hospitals and NBN and uni funding it will have a slight edge to Windsor

@Dan It’s more likely to be the other way around. It’s true Tamworth was Windsor’s home base, but Armidale tends to be a Labor and Greens-leaning town, and consequently is likely to be Windsor’s best part of the electorate. It is in Tamworth and the smaller centres where he is presumably in for a tougher fight. Judging by his chopper flights to the far flung corners of the seat, which you would normally think don’t have enough voters to warrant the effort to reach them, Joyce does appear to have been putting in some effort to work the electorate.

That is true but this election will be about Primary Vote support, and the Nationals have better support in Northern Tablelands then they do in Tamworth so there is more way for them to gain primary support and not leak anything on preferences. If a former state MP who was no where near as popular as Windsor can amass 34.5 in Tamworth I’d say Windsor can bring atleast 10% which would be quite high considering this result probably wont see either candidate get to 45% electorate wide. Joyce has alienated parts of those communities who aren’t interested in retail politics that his known for.

Dan
As an historian i just can’t resist flying some jumbos through the holes in your arguments !!!!.
In point of fact Jules managed to lose the 2010 election. She then bribed (with public funds ) some independents into forming a govt.
Jules’s achievements : These were ??? What exactly???
Julia’s place in history. The FIRST sitting PM to be fired by her own side BEFORE facing a single election, because they were so terrified of where she would take them. Abbott has saved her from being the ONLY (one) !!!. That is what her OWN side thought of her. That is THEIR JUDGEMENT. What else can possible need to be said???
Tony: The poor bloke could have won 149 seats & still nothing would have been different.
No one will defend his poor judgement. Misplaced loyalties . Broken promises etc
No one will defend the failings of his communication.
However you seem to have quite a difficulty hearing, & receiving his message, which he did actually deliver thousands of times !!!!. Incredible. He did say it VERY slowly !!!!.
His achievements are historical record & fact.

The way our system (doesn’t ) work is that an obdurate, opposition, & senate will only allow a govt to govern according to what they think is acceptable. A govt can only implement what the senate will allow.That is the reality.
Lack of senate reform has made it un-representative , & the nation un-governable.

Polls to date suggest Windsor has a real chance – Barnaby will have to spend time in the electorate and be limited in his ability to campaign for other Nationals

If it ends up being a tossup, that would still represent a significant loss in Windsor’s vote – he used to have very large margins here.

Wine diamond most of your statemement was partisanship so I’m just going to ignore that part. Yes polls have this as a toss up but thats still decent considering the high support Barnaby got in 2013 and the conservative wingers telling New England voters how to think for the past 6 years. In the end it may be that he ends up getting quite a solid vote. You said it yourself single seat polls are useless

@Dan sounds like a desperate attempt to explain away Windsor’s failure in the electorate. I think we all know that one must be cautious because of the small sample size and regional variation with individual seat polls, but useless? Hardly. This therefore has the potential to affect the primary vote, of course that is true and I freely admit that. However, I think it is a huge stretch to say that the poll is out by 30%.

Even in the wildest pro-Windsor world, I doubt that he will get anything > 45% of the primary vote which is a huge drop no matter how you slice it.

The fact that Joyce is keeping this a tossup deserves commendation, Windsor is the former MP of the area who used to be elected with >70% of the 2PP vote!

The electorate rejected Labor and their policy in 2013 which is why Abbott won with a good margin, just because Gillard has more “achievements does not mean they were good achievements. As for New England the electorate despised the independents for going against what are for the most part conservative seats, it may get close but I believe Joyce will come out on top.

Dan
NO . None of it was partisanship. ALL was FACT, reality, & questions. None of which you responded to.

This argument about the Gillard government (divorced from Windsor) is tedious. Stick to the topic.

Ben
Sorry.
i agree it is tedious. However it is very relevant, as the Gillard govt would not have happened without Windsor’s compliance. This is historical fact, & will have an effect on the outcome, in N.E.

Ben
Can’t post on Chisholm
cheers WD

Abbott has nobody to blame but himself for losing in 2010. His utter failure to negotiate well back then was telling, it was indicative of the stubborn and chaotic approach to government that led to his downfall. As for the seat, it will be close but no doubt the Nationals will pore a obscene amount of money into holding this, so at this stage Barnaby is still ahead.

And lose it he did – it is an historical fact that the Gillard government won the 2010 election.

Minority Labor goverments aside, I would have expected Windsor to lose a decent chunk of votes when his opponent is the Deputy PM rather than some unknown National Party nodder regardless, so this will definitely be a big ask. A major party leader being booted by their local electorate isn’t too common.

Will be an intriguing seat to watch come election night.

Highly unlikely that Windsor will get the primary votes he has commanded in the past but will gain the vast majority of third party preferences. It is broadly considered a conservative electorate if the Lib/Nats lose the election I suspect they’ll also lose New England.

Malcolm
Barnaby will romp it in. It is said that” in politics nothing is certain” . However this will go close.

I have strong family connections to New England, so I always enjoy following this seat. I get the feeling that after having Windsor as such an attentive local member for so long, many people have been disappointed by Joyce.

I agree that Windsor won’t get the same primary vote he got in 2010, but he is looked upon more fondly now than he was in 2013. It’s certainly not locked in, but Windsor is in with a chance.

winediamond

Not sure how you can romp it in and also go close?

I’m thinking it’ll be close. Joyce and Windsor are not the best of friends though which adds an extra amount of theatre to New England.

Malcolm
Barnaby will “”eventually ” ‘ romp it in. It will “look ‘ close, until the day.
Barnaby is a very passionate bloke, i have a few good mates who played rugby with him at Walcha Rugby club.
Only we (that know him well ) know him well, know how close Windsor has come to having his head knocked off !!!. In the PM live debate at the Tamworth hotel, when Windsor patronised him & touched him on the shoulder i thought “Oh gawd no” !!!.
Only Windsor’s age saved him i reckon !!!
IT was a Mark Reilly — Tony Abbott moment !!!.
Therein lies Windsor’s entire strategy.
To do whatever it takes to provoke Barnaby, (to lose control) , by whatever means necessary, to server his own purpose. It may work, he has already gone close!!!.
Hardly a political high road.

A new independent, Philip Cox, has entered the race here
http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/3912345/lawyer-latest-candidate-for-new-england-seat/?src=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Cox almost seems to be a light Green candidate.

I suspect that this race will become very personal in the last few weeks of the campaign. Windsor has his own op ed in the northern and perhaps makes a fairly pertinent point regarding his choice in 2010;

“Finally, I did fail to support Mr Abbott in his bid to be Prime Minister. “I told you so” is perhaps a bit trite, but the Nationals and Liberals have since adopted my position – that is – removed Mr Abbott as Prime Minister.”
http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/3913611/new-englands-member-is-being-loose-with-the-truth/?cs=4141

The silly debate about which PM was worse surely misses the main point that one PM managed to somehow govern nearly a full term negotiating with a minority government which no one really expected to last longer than 6 months, whilst the other PM somehow blew it with a huge majority after promising good, stable government.

Similar to the 1st term of Rudd, what should be a majority big enough to ensure another couple of electoral wins, suddenly vanished prompting the party to do what they said would never happen, dump their PM. Windsor could perhaps even highlight a better record of achievement in a minority govt than Joyce can in a majority govt?

Wine Diamond with respect to Barnaby Once he WAS a very passionate person but a front bench position has knocked the stuffing out of him. Farmers are getting sub standard prices from the Australian Supply Chain because Barnaby prefers the front bench to standing up for his electorate.

There is no free market for most agricultural products and Barnaby has preferred to pretend that a free market exists rather than regulating to end sure that farmers get a fair go.

HE is no longer a National he is a liberal in a hat.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Yappo, Gillard was actually in a better position than Abbott as she had effective control of both houses. The “independents” were ideologically aligned with her government and even supported her over the Peter Slipper and Craig Thompson scandals, + the alliance with the greens delivered a rubber stamp senate. The incoming LNP government under both PM’s has faced a hostile senate so couldn’t legislate its agenda (for better or worse).

Barnaby, when we realised that our Valenecia orange industry was in real trouble we tried to contact you. You sent a four page letter which showed that you were so out of touch that I wrote the book ‘Barnaby, you know nothing about Valencia oranges and do not care for those who grow them.’ The Establishment is protecting youby not sending you the book and you return the envelopes – even when sent person to person – ‘Return to Sender.’

You labour voting inner city guys miss the point

I am a conservative independent voter and TW was a top class MP

He made one mistake in 25 years by backing ALP in 2010

New England area has always had a strong independent feel about it and would have been its own independant state if the referendum in the sixties did not include newcastle

This causes me some serious anxiety as Joyce is sort of an independent national he was when elected to the senate in queensland

I am in neighbouring electorate of Parkes were you get arrested for voting labor

I think joyce will just win but his 19 percent will evaportate to about 2 percent and so long as TW is around
He will be held accountable

The libs lurch to the left will not help him either as even the libs have vowed not to vote liberal on all the talk back shows in Sydney if thats the case windsor will win

Look at both by elections in WA and north sydney 13 percent swings

This was due to Abbott government it was due to a left wing trott kniving him in the back

There are imponderable part s to this for one simple reason ,2013 election was not contested by Tony Windsor.contrary to popular belief I think he may have won then.of course his support of the labor govt lost him votes. … But 2016 is a better climate politically for non govt forces. Will be close I think

interesting Dave….. I think will be close as Mr Windsor is no fool and it is the case that people in the country areas look to what an mp can do…….. a hard working mp who must work for the seat is worth much more than some one who reinforces the existing political complexion of an area and can be bound by the liberal dog wagging the National tail

Or the wagging ALP tail of a Greens dog? 😉