Melbourne Ports – Australia 2016

Think this will be a likely Labor retain but a seat where the Libs will be competitive. Although the Libs will probably break even w/Labor on the primary vote (therefore losing ground) if the Victorian Liberal Party and its plan for higher preference flows succeeds I expect it to be much tighter.

As for the Greens I think they are a long way off here, as Ben says they would need to jump past the ALP and I don’t see that happening in the current climate and with a sitting member.

You can clearly see that this really is a seat of three distinct parts, and how Labor’s base is eroding in both directions as the seat gentrifies.

This seat, not Higgins, is probably the closest federal equivalent of the state seat of Prahran. It will likely become a genuine three-way marginal as the remaining Labor areas get colonized by either affluent professionals or the inner-city-trendy crowd.

If you look at the full preference distribution from 2013, once you get down to the final 3 candidates there’s a gap of 11.69% between Labor and the Greens. That means a 5.85% swing from Labor to the Greens would put the Greens in 2nd, and in a position to win assuming a high flow of Labor preferences (which is obviously against the wishes of Mr Danby).

On those numbers this seems mathematically to be the Greens’ No. 1 target seat in Australia based on 2013 results. Of course this in reality is clearly not the case if the Liberals were to preference the Greens in seats like Batman, Grayndler and Wills.

The Greens have a very impressive candidate here, and there are plenty of notionally Labor voters who are displeased about Danby’s brainfart of a decision to indicate preferences to the Liberals ahead of the Greens.

Another seat to expect a large swing to the Greens as a result and possibly a further swing against Labor.

If the Greens manage to place second, and Danby does stick by his plan to preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens – the seat could very well be handed to the Liberal candidate. If Danby reverses his decision and instead preferences the Greens ahead of the Liberals – the Greens would be the favourite to gain the seat. If the Greens place third – Labor will retain it easily. A genuine three way marginal seat.

I can guarantee that nearly all of the Labor party would be happy to see the back of Danby. He’s not particularly adored by the NSW right over his stance of Israel. The left also despise his stance on that issue as well.

Although Danby will inevitably hold the seat he is going to lose a considerable chunk of his progressive flank to the Greens over his declaration of the direction of his preferences. Once he retires, presumably next election, the Labor vote will drop in Caulfield and St Kilda, with the Liberal vote rising Caulfield and the Greens in St Kilda.

Nick C
Your mathematical prognosis is flawless. Likewise your theoretical conclusions. However i am not yet convinced that the Green vote in PM will necessarily rise much,ATM.
There are a lot of new voters in (Port), & demographic change (St Kilda) as MM has said.

Demographic change is rapidly hurting Labor here, old working class industrial areas are now expensive and gentrified. Danby does have a sizeable following in the Jewish community around Caulfield though, those booths tend to be about 5-10% better for the Liberals at state level.

GG
Too true. However it is unpredictable where these new voters will actually go.

The Greens commissioned a Reach-Tel poll in Melbourne Ports in regards to Danby’s declaration over the direction of his preferences. Naturally I am dubious about polls like this or in fact any specific seat poll. Although unlike last election, he has decided to sing this intention from the rooftops and that would catch the ire of some progressives.

Unique seat this because of the high Jewish vote, which given the Greens positions on BDS over the years explains (tactically at least) Danby’s fairly loud attacks on the Greens. It’s a hard pair of demographics to hold together for Danby: generally conservative Jewish voters who vote for Danby and St Kilda hipsters, not to mention the boom in South Melbourne apartments. The Libs originally preselected a 21 year old for this seat (now the Lib candidate for Holt, I can’t remember his name) before upgrading to a reasonable candidate. I believe the Greens candidate is a Di Natale staffer who isn’t a local, but is considered a decent enough talent.

This seat swings to its own issues. If pushed I guess I’d predict a Danby hold, but where this seat will be in 15 years is anyone’s guess.

In addition to PJs comments, the Jewish vote is very under-represented in the booths. This seat covers the largest Orthodox Jewish population base in Melbourne, if not Australia (not 100% on the demographics).

Being that elections are held on Saturdays, the Orthodox Jewish vote is 100% postal and pre-poll votes, being that they are unable to go and vote on the Sabbath. Indeed, Gillard was critised by Danby for nominating September 14 as the election date, as it fell on Yom Kippur.

The Jewish early vote makes the the booth results in Balaclava and Caulfield look more Liberal than they normally would be, at least with Danby’s personal vote.

“The Jewish early vote makes the the booth results in Balaclava and Caulfield look more Liberal than they normally would be”

Do you mean *less* Liberal than they would normally be?

Happened to see the Danby HTV card here. Greens Party ahead of the Liberals, which would suggest that this is the same across all 150 electorates.

If the Greens somehow manage to get ahead of Danby on the primary vote, Steph Hodgins-May will be the new MP for Melbourne Ports after July 2. Given the campaign the Greens are running in this seat – it wouldn’t surprise me if that does actually eventuate.

@Matt I think the Greens will have a hard time in this seat – the ALP/LIB PV is too high here at the moment for the Greens to overtake. Also, it is unlikely that Danby’s PV is going to fall even further, it probably reached near rock-bottom in 2013.

Don’t forget when looking at the primary vote gap between Greens and Labor that the shift required is only half of that gap. The Greens have been dramatically improving their target seat campaigns and I don’t think it’s unrealistic if their local campaigning is well organised and well resourced that they could achieve that swing. Of course Danby might achieve a shift to him from the Liberals which might make it harder.

Matt….In the unlikely event that Danby finishes third, I think there’d be enough leakage to the Liberals for them to win. I would assume that a significant minority of his vote comes from Jewish voters who would normally lean Liberal all things being equal.

Danby is indeed handing out HTV cards that preference the Liberals.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labors-michael-danby-defies-party-on-greens-preferences-20160616-gpk9ky.html

It’s mostly a symbolic gesture, although there might be a risk of some payback from Greens voters. The story notes that Kroger is pushing this strategy on Greens voters.

(Although Danby’s actions might help rather than hinder him in parts of this seat).

This move will hurt Danby in St Kilda and he will probably lose some skin to the Greens there, that being said it probably plays well for him in and around Caulfield.

As a sweeping statement, most of the Danby voters in the Jewish community would put the Greens last regardless of what recommendations were made. The Jewish News is very anti-greens.

Does anyone know if the swing from ALP to Green being witnessed in Batman is being replicated here?

Unfortunately, the only thing we have to go on is that Morgan poll, which almost seemed like numbers made up out of thin air!

(FWIW, it showed all 3 parties around 30%, with the Greens getting votes from the Liberals and Labor finishing in first place……)

Apparently a Greens commissiond ReachTel poll here showed Lib 44.7, Lab 23.7, and Greens 20.2 (!).

The Liberals would get very close if those figures are even remotely true.

This is either going to be a weird election, or there is way too much inaccurate and misleading polling going on.

@MM TBH it’s probably a mix of both XD

Hint: It’s the latter. Seat polls tend to be hilariously inaccurate in my experience.

I feel as if a lot of these polls are outliers… Danby should hold easily, the Libs are expecting to take a hit and the Greens should gain a little.
Perhaps a result in the range of 38 – Lib, 32 – Labor and 23 – Green, for a 2PP of 55-45, although thats just a pure guess.

If this seat ever became Libs v Grns battle Libs would be favoured due to Jewish vote in Caulfield. Danby has lobbied hard to keep Caulfield in seat. Suspect Danby might be last Labor MP for this seat.

@GR
Over time Caulfield may well be cut from the seat with the imminent development of Fisherman’s Bend.
Although as long as the electorate is centred on St Kilda the Labor vote will hold up enough to keep them in play.

My prediction: Labor hold, and will be for as long as Michael Danby is member, keeping the Caulfield area 10% safer for Labor than at the state level. The seat is trending to both the Liberals and Greens alike.

Loneragan poll of 1357 voters in Melbourne Ports

LIB: 42%
GRN: 27%
ALP: 25%

@Malcolm tantalising. Is there a 2PP estimate on those figures? There is talk that this could be a *very* outside chance, mainly due to Danby’s rebellion with the HTV cards.

W of S
On those numbers, with labor preferences the libs win. This would be very entertaining.

Was this a commissioned poll or independent? The Greens are apparently spruiking this as a sign they will win, but from those primaries I’d expect enough leakage from “Danby Liberal” Jewish voters to put the Liberals ahead.

IF the numbers are true…and IF this isn’t some Greens-commissioned piece of guff. Big “IFs” imho.

No 2PP estimate that I’m aware of Wreathy, these results were reported here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-26/greens-spruik-climate-education-policy-at-campaign-launch/7544956

If this scenario plays out at the election with the unique demographics of the seat then anythings possible.

MM
Agree completely. However consider how much the Green vote seems to have risen throughout ALL inner city Melbourne. Is it possible ???

WD,

In Melbourne, Wills and Batman, you obviously see significant gentrification of old Labor areas. Add to that perhaps some tactical voting by Liberals, and yes it seems clear to me that the Green vote will continue to rise.

I personally believe the Green “threat” in Higgins is over-stated. If anything, I’d expect the trends to favour the Liberals here, as the traditional trendy Labor/Green areas become impossibly expensive. It might end up like northern Sydney, with the Greens taking second place but still finishing well behind. But that’s just a personal opinion….

Melbourne Ports is seeing a drift from Labor to the Liberals and the Greens. So it’s not so much a rise of the Greens vote as a hollowing out in both directions.

Keep in mind that most of the polling for these seats have been Greens-commissioned. So, the is obviously the possibility that they’re overstating their case, deliberately or otherwise.

I’m surprised that the Greens vote is that high, more in the belt between middle park to st kilda is expected but that seems a little too high.

Danby will rue his position on HTV cards if the Libs take this. Especially, in a hung parliament context ….even more so if ALP also loses Batman.

MM
Agree with all of your well reasoned thoughts…

@Yappo now THAT would be fun to watch XD

@Yappo now THAT would be fun to watch XD

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-liberals-poised-to-take-melbourne-ports-as-labor-slips-to-third-greens-polling-says-20160626-gpsc7l.html

This article refers to the polling discussed here last night (I think). It says Labor have been putting out 2 HTV cards.

I think a big rise in the Greens vote is likely due to Steph Hodgkins-May’s campaign and a significant anti-Danby sentiment among progressive voters at the moment.

In terms of the polling, I think 42% is a little high for the Liberals. 2013 saw a big swing to the Coalition nationally and they ended with 41%. I can’t see, in an election where the momentum points to a significant swing away from the Coalition, that they would top that. I think their primary vote is more likely to be in the range of 37-38%.

As for the HTV cards, word is that Danby has only selectively been handing his ‘rogue’ ones preferencing the Libs to older Jewish voters at the pre-polls, who would likely have preferenced the Libs anyway (or maybe even vote Lib instead of Labor once they get in the booth). Everybody else is getting the official HTV.

My guess is for primaries is something like:
38% LNP; 29% ALP; 27% GRN; 6% Other.

Once the ‘others’ are distributed, given how progressive all the minor parties are, ALP/GRN race is up for grabs….. Likely around 40% LNP; 30% each to ALP and GRN so either could face the Libs in the 2PP. Remember in Prahran 2014, ALP had a higher primary vote than Green but Greens overtook them on minor party preferences for the 2PP spot.

If LNP v ALP I expect about a 55-45 ALP win. If LNP v GRN, the Libs will need about 1 in 3 ALP preferences to win and may get close to that so it will come down to the wire. Maybe Greens by within a 1% margin.

One more thing, in 2013 the Australian Sex Party got almost 4% in Melbourne Ports. They aren’t running a candidate this time, and of the 3 majors their policies align most closely with the Greens (euthanasia, drug reform, asylum seeker policy, data retention, etc). I don’t see them voting Lib/Lab. Maybe another minor, but would still preference the Greens. That alone could add 3% to the Green vote even before taking into account the swings away from Labor & Liberal and the strong campaign they have been running.

I’m not sure if Michael Danby is very clever or just plain lucky. He finished around 2% ahead of the Greens, with a primary barely above 27%, yet seems to have hung on.

The northern part of the seat continued its drift towards the Liberals, while Danby actually finished third in some of the St Kilda and Elwood booths. But Caulfield stayed strong for him, possibly because of his public defiance of his own party.

@MM postals should heavily favour him due to the Jewish community. He seems home and dry although when he departs (which could be soon, the ALP National Executive do seem pretty peeved at him) then the rock-solid Jewish vote could be up for grabs – giving the Liberals and advantage.

WoS, actually declaration votes heavily favour the Liberals in this seat. In 2013, Danby had nearly 2% cut from his Ordinary Vote margin by declaration votes.

I would absolutely expect this to go Liberal when Danby retires, although the redistribution may have something to say about that.

@MM Oh I wasn’t aware. Shows I should probably check to make sure next time XD

Mark,
I think this seat may be a sleeper. the ALP is some 1100 votes ahead of the Greens at the moment, when postals come in the best case scenario is he’ll get another 2000 votes over the green. Marriage equity, Drug reform and Animal Justice (2792 votes) were all referencing the Greens before the ALP and I think most of Holland (Ind) votes are donkey votes going to the Lib. Typically Greens hover up the preferences and then deliver them to Danby (who performs very poorly in the preference game).

I don’t think we’ll get a true idea until Tuesday or Wednesday but I’m not sure 3000 is enough headway given were the small parties are at in the count, and these figures will rise as well. .

In short, we not far off this flipping into a Green vs Lib fight, but we won’t really know until Tuesday but I personally think this is the true undecided. I’ve actually got no idea who’s going to win here but it looks awfully similar to what we saw in Prahran in the Vic state election. If that does happen this will be a Lib gain.

The Greens cleaned up in the St Kilda area, with by far the highest primary vote at all St Kilda polling places, Elwood North and Ripponlea North. The St Kilda area was interesting because despite the massive collapse in Labor’s primary vote, the Labor 2PP (around 66-34) and the Libs primary vote (mid-20s) remained practically identical to 2013. It was essentially just a straight swing from ALP to Green around St Kilda, but no change after preferences.

The biggest surprise for me was how much Port Melbourne shifted to the Liberals. Some polling booths swung about 8% into the Liberals’ favour up there. South Melbourne & Albert Park saw some similar swings too, which I wouldn’t have expected in an election where the momentum swung towards Labor.

I think if Labor replacing Danby coincides with Melbourne Ports losing Caulfield in a redistribution (with Fishermen’s Bend it’s inevitable), one will cancel the other out in terms of its effect on the seat turning Liberal. If Labor loses the seat it would more likely be to the Greens because if you take Caulfield out of the equation, I don’t know if the swing to the Liberals around Port Melbourne/Albert Park would be enough to overcome how poorly they perform in the south of the electorate where they struggle to crack 30%. It would remain marginal but probably turn Green.

Kevin Bonham rates this as a real undecided