LIB 3.3%
Incumbent MP
Russell Matheson, since 2010.
Geography
Macarthur covers most of the City of Campbelltown (except for Macquarie Fields and Glenfield) and a small part of Camden council area. The key suburbs are Campbelltown, Minto, Leumeah, Ingleburn, St Andrews, Raby, Bradbury, Ambarvale and Rosemeadow.
Redistribution
Macarthur shifted further into the Sydney area. The seat previously covered parts of Wollondilly, including Douglas Park and Appin, along with Camden, Narellan and surrounding suburbs. All of these areas were shifted into Hume, while some western parts of Liverpool council were shifted into Werriwa. In exchange, Macarthur shifted deeper into Campbelltown, gaining Ingleburn, Minto, St Andrews and Raby from Werriwa. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 11.4% to 3.3%.
History
Macarthur was first created at the 1949 election, and has moved around southwestern Sydney, the southern highlands and the Illawarra over the last sixty years. The seat was a bellwether seat from 1949 until 2007, when the Liberals managed to hold on to the seat.
The seat was held from 1949 until 1972 by Jeff Bate of the Liberal Party, who became an independent in 1972 after losing preselection, before losing to the ALP’s John Kerin. Kerin held the seat until 1975. He later won the neighbouring seat of Werriwa in a 1978 by-election following the retirement of Gough Whitlam and served as a minister in the Hawke government, including a brief term as Treasurer following Paul Keating’s move to the backbench.
Michael Baume won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1975 and held the seat until the 1983 election, when he too was defeated. Baume returned to politics as a Senator following the 1984 election. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Colin Hollis, who transferred to the Illawarra seat of Throsby in 1984 following the expansion of the House of Representatives.
Hollis was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Martin, who transferred to the seat of Cunningham in 1993 following a redistribution which presumably shifted Macarthur out of the Illawarra, which is now covered by Cunningham and Throsby. Martin went on to serve as Speaker during the final term of the Keating government and his 2002 retirement triggered the Cunningham by-election, which was won by the Greens. Chris Haviland held the seat for one term before he was defeated for Labor preselection in 1996 and retirement.
The new Labor candidate was defeated by former Liberal premier John Fahey, who had previously been the state member for Southern Highlands before his government was defeated in 1995. Fahey served as Finance Minister in the first two terms of the Howard government.
A 2001 redistribution saw Macarthur move out of the Southern Highlands and take in parts of southern Campbelltown, which had previously been included in Werriwa. This gave the ALP a notional majority in the seat, and the party nominated recurrent Mayor of Campbelltown Meg Oates. Fahey originally planned to transfer to the seat of Hume, which now covered his heartland territory around Bowral and Moss Vale, although he eventually retired at the 2001 election due to health problems.
The Liberal Party eventually preselected ultramarathon runner and charity fundraiser Pat Farmer, a personal favourite of John Howard, and he managed to win the seat with a swing to the Liberal Party. The 2004 election saw Farmer solidify his hold on the seat, holding the seat with a 9.5% margin.
Despite his margin increasing to over 11% thanks to a favourable redistribution, Pat Farmer barely held on in 2007.
The redistribution prior to the 2010 election made Macarthur a notional Labor seat. Farmer was defeated for Liberal preselection by former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson, who went on to retain the seat for the Liberal Party with a 3.5% swing. Matheson solidified his hold in 2013, thanks to a further 8.3% swing.
Candidates
- Richard Bakoss (Nick Xenophon Team)
- James Gent (Christian Democratic Party)
- Russell Matheson (Liberal)
- Michael Freelander (Labor)
- Ben Moroney (Greens)
Assessment
Macarthur should be a key marginal at this election – while the Liberal Party has held Macarthur continuously since 1996, the seat has now shifted to be almost entirely based in Labor-friendly Campbelltown, and while Matheson is a former mayor of the area he will have a fight to win a third term with a much smaller margin.
Polls
- 51% to Labor – Galaxy commissioned by Daily Telegraph, 11 May 2016
- 51% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by 7 News, 19 May 2016
- 50-50 – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Russell Matheson | Liberal | 46,185 | 54.3 | +6.9 | 45.9 |
| Ian Fulton | Labor | 26,039 | 30.6 | -7.9 | 38.0 |
| Goetz Robert Uwe Grosche | Palmer United Party | 4,916 | 5.8 | +5.8 | 5.5 |
| Patrick Darley-Jones | Greens | 3,929 | 4.6 | -0.9 | 4.1 |
| Sarah Ramsay | Christian Democratic Party | 2,189 | 2.6 | +0.8 | 3.2 |
| Mick Williams | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,751 | 2.1 | +2.1 | 1.7 |
| Others | 1.6 | ||||
| Informal | 7,225 | 8.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Russell Matheson | Liberal | 52,161 | 61.4 | +8.3 | 53.3 |
| Ian Fulton | Labor | 32,848 | 38.6 | -8.3 | 46.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Macarthur have been split into four parts. Most of the seat’s population is in the city of Campbelltown and this area has been split into north (including Minto, Ingleburn and St Andrews), central (including Airds, Campbelltown and Leumeah) and south (including Ambarvale, Bradbury and Rosemeadow). Those booths in the Camden council area, including Harrington Park and Leppington, have been grouped as west.
The Liberal Party won 68.5% in the west, but only small majorities in the centre and south. In the north, previously contained in Werriwa, Labor won 54% of the two-party-preferred vote.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 46.1 | 9,407 | 21.9 |
| South | 52.8 | 8,101 | 18.8 |
| Central | 50.4 | 7,454 | 17.3 |
| West | 68.5 | 5,741 | 13.3 |
| Other votes | 57.8 | 12,340 | 28.7 |
Close tossup, but I’d tip the Libs to hold this off the back off Matheson’s vote. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a particularly strong swing to the ALP, that this seat will be seriously in doubt. It will be a seat that would be essential to forming a Labor government down the road however.
I agree it will be close, but Labor have a decent chance here. There is definite room for improvement in the ALP vote in bits of Campbelltown.
with Camden gone there are few liberal friendly booths expect Alp win
I still think the boundaries could have been improved here, but oh well…..
Apart from the seats that notionally changed hands at the redistribution, this is probably Labor’s best chance of winning a seat in NSW.
MM
With you all the way on that one. The AEC did an appalling job here, & in surrounding seats. I don’t say that from a partisan point of view, but more from a view of representation, & community of interest.
Labor did extremely poorly here in 2013. Obviously Laurie Ferguson failed miserably to gain any traction. On that score alone i’d agree on labor’s chances here.
Without Matheson’s personal vote the libs would have no chance.
Mathieson is an average MP. Up against a doctor who most of the voters would have gone to at some point and regularly I’d expect this to be up there with Paterson and Dobell for labor gains
Dan
You may well be right about Matheson’s capabilities being average, or even less than. However his record so far has been far from average, so your comment makes little sense.
So Fassbender is a doctor. Does he work in a hospital , in which case, like many public servants, he may have a very narrow experience indeed, of many aspects of life.
Has he a private practice ?? Who does he see exactly?? Are they better off, i.e. swing voters .Or does he see them for a few minutes before bulk- billing them (i.e. the poor / battlers) ????. What exactly are you saying ?? Or are you simply making grand statements, & jumping to ungrounded, ill proven conclusions ???
Dan,
Do you really think that people remember what doctor helped them? I can’t even remember what I had for breakfast last week!! Especially not when you’re going to the doctor in a time of need and great stress. I suggest you check the record.
That assessment of Mathieson doesn’t make sense. He’s been very average which you admitted so therefore he can’t be far from average.
Maybe you should ask the parents of children who he has diagnosed for conditions and illnesses. He is probably the most quality candidate running in any seat and i find it disturbing you look to discredit him. Grow up
[comment deleted]
@Dan Although I do not condone Winediamond’s language (sorry about that!) I think he has a point about partiality. We are here to discuss predictions, not make partisan and party political observations based on nothing but political allegiance.
W of S
Precisely .
We are adults here. So i won’t resile, & don’t apologise from the intensity of my response. I did give fair warning in another post.
Thanks for the support
I notice Bill Shorten had a Town Hall meeting in Ingleburn today. If there’s any swing back to Labor in NSW, (and even if there’s not), this should be one to watch. It used to be a rock solid labor area…it has basically the same boundaries as Werriwa did 20 years ago.
With all due respect wreathy my comment wasn’t partisan, Russell has been average I know of no one on the area who rates him as highly as people rate Craig laundy so I think my comment was pretty fair. So it’s pretty fair from a prediction point of view to say this makes it very winnable. And as for wine diamond who constantly attacks candidates particularly the partisan assessments of Libby and John Murphy, I don’t think it’s mature to attack a candidate to dismiss his creds, I’m sure Ben would know more about him having been in the area
@Dan Really? Well it just seemed that way with you trashing every Liberal MP whilst extolling the virtues of supposedly great Labor battlers. From my POV it just seemed partisan, because Winediamond (just like ALL of us) have the ability to critique a candidate to ascertain their quality and skill, the process to which you took offence. In the words of Reg Withers ‘We are not indulging in some afternoon tea party for goodness sake’
Instead of trying to prove Mattheson’s sub-standard candidacy, you tried to catch Winediamond by playing a silly semantic argument. Only now do you admit your only evidence is anecdotal which whilst interesting, is not particularly useful when assessing overall popularity.
When you say Winediamond is partisan, I think it is clear that you have obviously cherry-picked your evidence. Now I will let Winediamond speak for himself but when you mention he has ‘attacked’ Murphy (who IMO rightly deserves a good talking to) and Libby, you COMPLETELY IGNORE the fact that he has also criticised Liberal MPs like Hendy so very selective in your choice of facts.
I actually praised Craig laundy so perhaps you should check the record and not be so one eyed. It is not a critique when you are overly partisan and not have a reason why they are bad, I haven’t really said any liberal MP is bad rather just average.
Mine is based on people who actually live in MacArthur just like winediamonds assessment on Peter Hendy was based on what a mate said. So it seems you are quite the cherry picker when criticising me with a double standard. And you have just proved my argument with your comment on John Murphy, if he’s so bad why was he only defeated by less then 1% so do not be so selective next time and get over this. Our blog is better then this and by God our country is better then this
@Dan great avoiding what I actually said. Stop being so sensitive, we don’t like your candidate so just get over it. This is politics not some afternoon tea party.
Do you know what partisan means? I have openly praised Labor candidates and Liberal members alike if they’re worthy, just because I do not share your view does not make me a partisan. FYI I did say it was from my POV that *you* were in fact partisan, because when I last checked I had not seen any praise for a Liberal candidate. If that has changed then great!
As for the anecdote, they’re just that. I have used them as well (see my Gilmore post), but don’t delude myself into thinking they are representative of an entire electorate. Just because Winediamond used one as well does not make their usage anymore valid.
My comments re: John Murphy were not about his electoral success but of his character. FFS he opposed gay marriage, abortion rights and stem-cell research and these in my view are why he deserves a ‘good talking to’.
In any case I consider the matter closed, we are obviously not going to get anywhere by continuing this argument.
I’d like to refer everyone to the comments policy.
Specifically: “Play the ball, not the man. When engaged in discussions with other commenters, you should remain focused on the topic of discussion, and the content of other comments, rather than making personal criticisms.”
This argument about each other’s positions is tedious – I don’t expect people to be impartial but please stay focused on the election.
I have deleted only one comment but I will delete more if necessary.
As for Freelander, I understand he’s a longstanding pediatrician which means he would have come into contact with a lot of local residents, and I understand his profile is quite high. Labor has had some success in the past in running a prominent pediatrician in this area (Andrew McDonald).
Ben
No problem with deleting my comment. i knew i’d be penalised for no arms in the tackle, but i was fed up. Your post perfectly answers my questions.
i know plenty of MDs & just cause they help people does not mean they will make good representatives, or MPs. Most that i know have little interest or exposure to the real world of business, wealth creation, employment, & financial pressures. In short, they are idealists divorced from middle class aspiration, & working family challenges.
Fassbender will probably be a very good candidate, particularly if he deals with the pointy end of the social problems of many troubled parts of this electorate.
Areas such as Claymore need all that they can get.
W of S
Yes indeed. Thanks for taking the ball to the line, i appreciate it.
I think we would all like to praise our pollies more than not. The problem is that in truth they deserve more brickbats, than bouquets !!!.
Unfortunately the worst are usually in the safer seats. The libs i loathe the most, for example Kevin Andrews. However MT has helped move quite a few on. The ALP seem less interested in re generation, to say the least. Or gaining candidates from a broader spectrum of society.
I couldn’t care less if you liked him but any candidate for a major party who is one of few local medical experts in his field to suggest isn’t good is a delusional thing to say. If your going to make an assessment you can’t think like a hack as most people couldn’t care about what committe an MP is on or how many speeches he’s given. The fact that someone who has an occupation that is largely respected is the candidate in a marginal seat makes sense and I’d say this would have to lean labor at the moment
Am not confident about Macarthur. This has been a miracle seat for the party for many years, with John Fahey and Pat Farmer managing to continually hold the seat, despite a string of unfavourable redistributions. But this one is almost a bridge too far, with so much of Campbelltown now in the seat.
My tip is an ALP gain, with the swing driven by the formerly-Werrira section of the seat.
I would hazard a guess and say this is really a Labor-leaning seat in normal, competitive elections now after the redistribution. However, I am not certain this time around because despite the slim margin and the unfavorable demographics in Campbelltown, Matheson was the mayor of the area which could potentially brunt any swing here.
If you were the mayor over 6 years ago and not since no one will really care people aren’t that committed to local government particularly when the mayor wasn’t popularly elected. also his council ticket only got 10% of the vote so not that great to withhold any swing
@Dan yes, we get it – you do not believe that state, local and federal elections affect each other. We’ve already established that through the thread on Solomon. There really is nothing more we can say. Let’s see on election day 😉
Matheson was not a popularly-elected mayor – he won the mayoralty as part of a power-sharing arrangement, and he would usually get a small proportion of the vote, across the whole council. Being the mayor and a local probably has some benefit for him but he hasn’t demonstrated a great vote-getting ability.
Ben
You do know this area personally.
@Ben & Dan, yes I am aware. I was thinking more along the lines of the profile that comes with just being mayor, not necessarily being elected mayor. However, you do know this area well and if you think that it will have little impact then I defer to you wisdom.
I got moved into Macarther in the redistribution. (Raby) And know the area quite well. I think that votes the ALP will pick up in areas like Minto and Ingleburn are going to be offset by the fact that since the last election the north west section of this electorate has had a major land release with a number of new suburbs. These suburbs located along Camden Valley Way I predict will be very similar to the suburb of Harrington Park in vote numbers with the Libs getting over 60% of the vote
Repsa
Quite right too. Seems too be around 600 new residents a month. A bigger thing will be if there are new first home buyers moving into the established suburbs you mentioned.
That could make a difference .
Wine diamond – Ben was a Greens candidate in Werriwa at the 2004 election and 2005 by-election following Mark Latham’s resignation.
Macca – GC
Yes . i did refer to that in my above post.
Wine diamond – ah yes, sorry. I miss read your post thinking you asked if he knew the area well. My mistake.
It’s tough with these seats because they have multiple forces pulling in different directions. My guess is regardless of which way Macarthur goes at this election, it will remain marginal. It would take quite a lot for either party to turn this to a safe seat
Macca GC
Around 90% of the new residents are going to the Leppington area at a rate of about 600 a month. It is close to the fastest growing locality in NSW.
If Matheson holds this election. It would make sense that he would gain a majority of these new voters, in 3 yrs time.
Because of the enormous influx of people here, the next re- distribution will be substantial.
WRT to Macarthur the AEC did an appalling job here, this time. The evidence will manifest in very large corrective changes next time.
I don’t understand how you can say they did an “appalling” job – it looks like a pretty neat boundary to me.
Ben
1/ Bringing Hume into Sydney suburbs was indefensible in the first place. However having decided to do it
2/ Straddling both sides of the M5 is exceedingly messy. This changed Macarthur from a semi rural, outer suburban seat into a Cambelltown based one. Werriwa became a Liverpool based seat. I am not at all sure Werriwa staying a North- South axis seat between the 2 centres would not have been a better, more homogenous outcome. Particularly WRT community of interest etc.
I’ll be intrigued as to your thoughts, on that alone.
3/ It is impossible to see a rationale for the northern boundary.
4/ THE M7, & M5 would have made better eastern boundaries.
5/ Elizabeth Drive would have made sense as a northern boundary
6/ Old northern rd , & Cowpasture rd as a western boundary.
Finally the objection in the redistribution of Macarthur were very numerous as i recall.
I think there are major problems with the inclusion of the Southern Highlands in Whitlam, and thus the separation between the two ends of Hume. It means Hume straddles very rural areas and areas that are basically in Sydney. I agree that is very problematic – the solution is to put the southern highlands into Hume, push Whitlam and Cunningham up, bring Hughes into Liverpool and push Werriwa and Macarthur back to where they used to be.
However once you’ve made that decision I think the new Macarthur is very neat. I don’t think the M5 makes sense as a dividing line through Campbelltown – it’s more of a unifying central spine. I also don’t see a problem with the northern boundary.
Ben, what you’re suggesting is basically my suggestion/objection for the area. But I think the key issue for the AEC was keeping Cunningham as a purely Wollongong seat. I didn’t agree with them, but I understand the logic.
I agree that this version of Macarthur is logical enough in isolation. It’s just that they bugger up Hume, Whitlam, and a few of the other surrounding seats to get there.
I think Hume was buggered up by Whitlam, not by Macarthur. Once you’ve made that decision, I think it’s logical to separate out Camden and Wollondilly from Campbelltown, which is largely what they did.
I also understand the concern about Cunningham – but I’ve come to the conclusion that the impact on Hume is unacceptable.
MM
As you no doubt recall,you had my most wholehearted support, & agreement. Are you sure it was some very new obsession within the AEC to keep Cunningham out of Sydney ?? It certainly never seemed to bother them much in the past !!!!.
ALL IN ALL
Bugger it up they certainly did !!!!.
this is a Campbelltown based seat……….the only part of Camden is round near Oran park
Ingleburn and Minto have been added…… with an improvement in labor’s vote I expect a ALP win
I miss Oran Park raceway, it’s all new housing now. As a big fan of Motorsport, I will always be angry that the land was brought out by developers.
I think the new Macarther/Werriwa boundaries make sense. Don’t like How Hume is so close to Badgerys Creek. You can’t forget Werriwa has Kemps Creek, Rosemore, Austral and Badgerys Creek. By the time the next election comes around we will may be talking about 600 people a month moving into sub divisions of the above suburbs.
Repsa
That is part of the POV i was putting forward. That the new suburbs west of the M5 , & M7 ,ought to be in one electorate. That is called community of interest.
This is mean’t to be one of the highest priorities in the AEC setting boundaries. So clearly they failed (miserably IMV).
Except the M5 doesn’t represent boundaries between communities of interest – the local government border does, and that’s what they’ve mostly followed.
I grew up in the part of Campbelltown west of the M5 – the community of interest was with the rest of Campbelltown, not Camden.
GG
Why limit your anger to the resumption of Motorsport land (what about Ameroo park ??)
.
IMV there ought to be an immediate, & complete ban on all housing development on arable land in the Sydney basin. There are many, & far better alternatives.
Ben
i can hardly argue with your far greater, & depth of knowledge, of this area. Clearly ATM pretty much everything will gravitate toward Campbelltown, Macarthur town centre, the rail line etc.
However i will (very respectfully ) ask some questions:
1/ Won’t those established communities , west of the M5 close to Campbelltown, end up being a vey small % of the new population to come ??
2/ LGA boundaries are about to change into who can guess what.
3/ Given that why wasn’t’ it more appropriate to use geographical features such as major roads, especially for this one (re distribution) ??
4/ the new Leppington town centre, & SW Rail link will develop a competing axis, to the existing ones i’d have thought. ??
There are no plans to amalgamate Camden and Campbelltown.
Even if they did amalgamate, there is a geographical gap between this cluster of suburbs and the Narellan-Mount Annan cluster of suburbs further to the west. Basically Raby is connected with St Andrews on opposing sides of the M5 – the M5 is simply not a dividing line in this area. Furthermore, people in this area have a close connection to Minto which is in the heart of Campbelltown. The LGA boundary still makes sense as a dividing line even if the councils were amalgamated.
Even if they are a small population (although Raby, Kearns, Eschol Park, Eagle Vale, Claymore, etc are a decent population) I don’t see why it makes sense to cut them off from the community they are a part of when there is a perfectly sensible dividing line on the other side.
As those large populations develop in the northern parts of Campbelltown council the communities of interest will change but I don’t see the need to act well in advance – electoral boundaries need to change every few years.
Ben
OK. Fair enough. i’m obviously getting way ahead of the situation, as it stands.
I wasn’t aware about any connection to Minto , or it’s importance.