Longman – Australia 2016

Katter’s Australian Party is running Brad Kennedy in Longman.

Brad Kennedy has been out campaigning this week as has Susan Lamb. Wyatt Roy appears to be relying on government funded print allowance to campaign.

The big issue in Longman is jobs. The largest job grouping in the electorate is retail trade making up 15% of jobs in electorate. Most of these jobs are part time casual and frequently temporary. ON 29 Feb. in Parliament whilst praising the Liberals free trade agreements Roy described these jobs as “high skilled highly paid jobs in the service industry”

Brad Kennedy has some interesting ideas for job creation in growth industries. He will be more concerned about jobs than kowtowing to foreign governments over free trade.

Wyatt Roy is an extremely expensive young man to maintain. He spends our taxes like the money grew on trees when it is his expenses but is highly careful when it is Medicare or Centrelink.

He is an photogenic MP who chameleon like is infantile when with school kids and arthritic when in an aged care home. In 2016 he needs a dose of “New Start” before getting a part time highly skilled highly paid jobs in one of the only growth industries in Longman foreign owned multinational retail outlets. THE new Ikea shop on border of electorate is seeking new staff but somehow I think Roy’s definition of “highly paid” will not be highly paid when he starts looking for employment post election.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Unfortunately, Roy is absolutely no chance of being beaten here. One of those seats that rewards mediocrity in candidates and thinks they are voting in or out the PM. What I mean by that is it only changes when the government of the day is on the nose, no matter how good or bad their local MP is.

A Jackson
Wyatt’s lack of impact, combined with other factors make Longman, far more vulnerable than the seats with higher margins.

I’d guess 5-6 seats are less vulnerable. IOW Longman is target 4 for the ALP in QLD.

A smoky for sure here, as it is quite possible for the ALP to win this seat, & fall miserably short of gaining govt.

FtB
Interesting that our views are so similar on the situation, & different on the outcome.

I doubt he will be defeated. Remember, this was the seat that rewarded Mal Brough 4 times before finally ridding themselves of him. I loathe Mal Brough…

W of S
Ah the Malbrough man. What a head kicker !!!. Might be a real prick, but a really successful minister, until the end (when his indiscretions caught up with him)
Could have been a great defence minister. No nice blokes make it there !!!.

Lib hold – I expect the LNP to reasonably well in the SE, Caloundra to Cairns is where to watch in Qld.

Sandbelter, with the exception of Capricornia, which I think will fall, surely you are not suggesting Labor are any chance of picking up non SE east seats? I give them no hope in Hebert, Leichhardt or Dawson. TBH, I actually think Capricornia will be Labor’s only gain in QLD and maybe the seat of Brisbane. Maybe.

F T Bern
Interesting . What would be your reasoning WRT Brisbane, as opposed to Petrie, & Bonner??.

W&D, always enjoy your analysis of elections……..I just think there isn’t enough mood for change, the primary vote for Labor at the moment is simply not good enough. I’m born and raised Brisbane and have resided in Petrie or Lilly throughout my voting life so far. When Qld swings, it swings but it has to be an election where the government is headed for a hefty defeat, like 2007. I say Labor could get Capricornia back as it’s traditionally a Labor seat and the odd times the Coalition have held it, they’ve had real trouble holding past the single term. The PUP vote from last election will spread out through Petrie too but I expect the majority to go to Coalition. There’s also on current polls an unusually high undecided vote. This should concern Labor as these tend to be the people who settle for the devil they know over the devil they don’t know and also often take into account who they’d prefer as PM. Turnbull is far more liked than Shorten.

F t Bern
Thanks for the acknowledgement, It’s always nice to feel the support of a few followers, & fellow travellers , if not “fans” !!!.

I find it impossible to argue with anything you have written above.

What was particularly fascinating was that Turnbull is far more liked (than Shorten). IMV this was always likely , but there has been little evidence ,so far at least .
Will you elaborate AFAP please ??

Wine diamond FTB is right that Turnbull is far more liked than Shorten. THIs is because Journalists keep praising this inner city yuppie. Shorten is too working class to be praised by inner city journalists.

@AJ are you kidding? Working class? The guy was educated at Xavier College in Melbourne!!! Hardly working class!!! The ALP of today are barely recognisable as the working class champions that they once were.

AJ hit that perfectly for 6 right there. Having met Shorten, I actually found him surprisingly to be quite an approachable guy. Guess it’s his days with the unions. I’ve never met MT but I get a feeling of strong arrogance when I see him talk on TV.

The quintessential problem for both candidates IMV is that Turnbull is seen as entitled and arrogant while Shorten is seen as banal (almost droll) and controlled by unions. Both depictions are simply the typical, archetypal representations of leaders made by each opposing party.

My prediction: LIB HOLD – increase in primary vote from PUP, decrease in TPP.

As FtB said, this seat only swings when the government is on the nose. You’d need to be seeing a Labor landslide for Longman to change hands.

For Queensland, I would say all of the following seats would have to change hands before Longman would:
1) Capricornia
2) Petrie
3) Brisbane
4) Bonner
5) Forde
6) Dickson (particularly at this election with Linda Lavarch as the candidate)

I see a positive swing to the Liberals in this seat on TPP, even in the face of a pro-Labor swing across Queensland, those that are disenfranchised with the PUP party from 2013 election will increase the primary for liberals not to mention the flow of preferences.

At a state level all 3 electorates (Pumicestone, Morayfield and Kallangur) fell to Labor but this was due to anti-Newman sentiment within Queensland. I feel as though this may become a Liberal stronghold whilst Roy’s personal vote remains if he wins this election. I reside within this seat and I have not heard any considerable anti-Roy rumblings.

I don’t see why you would expect lapsed Liberal voters who voted PUP in 2013 returning to the fold to increase the flow of preferences to the Liberals. Overwhelmingly such voters would have preferenced the Liberals, so inasmuch as they can be expected to increase the primary vote they would tend to decrease the number of preferences received.

this is not a regular or reliable seat for the libs…. eg like Ryan
the margin seems to be inflated…….why Mr Roy retains this puzzles me

RSV is correct the swing in all of the seats in the State Election was an anti -Newman swing but it was also an anti-Newman policy swing and Wyatt Roy (and his boss Turnbull) are clearly allied with the same anti family anti jobs policies that Newman had.

They are trying to force the Queensland Government to sell off assets even though we have clearly defeated both an ALP and an LNP Government over this issue.

The Market mechanism is failing in electricity and water, Selling off these assets has cost us much more than if we had kept under State Control. Wyatt Roy is tainted with free trade ideology that has resulted in manufacturing jobs in Longman going ton China. The only party in Queensland standing up to this free trade mentality is Katter’s Australian Party.

MY feeling is that personal vote for any candidate in Metropolitan Australia is infinitesimal. Wyatt Roy is not liked even within the Liberal Party. Elements of the pre Wyatt Roy Liberal Party are helping with Katter campaign. He has been too scared to be interviewed on the the local FM Radio station. NHE prefers photo opportunities where his views will not be challenged.

Brad Kennedy KAP’s candidate for Longman has been out on the hustings in Morayfield Road
and I understand further street meetings will occur from today onwards.

@kme Fair point I didn’t consider that so much. Just reviewing Anthony Green’s preference flow estimates from the 2013 election for PUP (referenced below), it is estimated that 47% ALP to 53% Coalition, Labor is running a ‘class warfare’ campaign with union backed champion Bill Shorton, it doesn’t seem like a campaign a PUP party electors would preference ahead of the Coalition. Just my ad-lib interpretation.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/11/preference-flows-at-the-2013-federal-election.html

I think PUP mainly attracted voters based on non-specific anti-major-party protest sentiments rather than specific platform reasons, and that they’ll mostly go back to the major party from whence they came (with the between-major-party swing overlaid over that).

kme
IMV PUP dislodged a percentage of rusted on labor voters .They were enabled in this by the chaotic, & failed RGR Govts. This will add to long term electoral volatility. TO what extent is anyone’s guess…..

Wine diamond
What is an RGR govt?

No one really knows for sure where the PUP vote came from or where it is going to go.

It may well have been the Howard battlers deserting the LNP but some of it came from ALP. I suspects lot of it was from the individuals who storm past all party workers on polling booths abusing all and sundry.

At the recent Council election I worked for an independent candidate at Caboolture State High School and received more abuse than at any election since 1969 when I was spat at when handing out DLP how to votes. The crypto ALP and crypto Liberal workers were abused by the same individuals.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

Wyatt Roy has a strong enough personal brand to hold here.

Wyatt Roy is not liked at all in the district especially by the business community. Youth maybe but they are the ones that have suffered the most with unemployment rising and underemployment reaching figures seen in the rural areas of North Queensland. Maybe though things are on the mend……..
https://www.ausparty.org.au/news/latest-updates/view/17/federal-election-2016-rob-katter-drops-in-on-caboolture

Liberal’s have finally got around to putting up signs in Longman. LNP Branch in Longman has never fully recovered from the walkout in 2010 following a Branch takeover by Wyatt Roy Supporters and the departure of many of Branch.

Brad Kennedy from KAP, Susan Lamb from ALP and Ian Bell from Greens all attended an ACTU Rally “Stand up for Queensland” at Caboolture RSL. NO sign of LNP anywhere. KAP Candidate stood outside campaigning for half an hour before the meeting. no sign of FF candidate who after his advocacy of sub-Award wages for the unemployed would probably have been given a very hot reception.

Roy’s Campaign manager certainly needs tuition in campaigning from Luke Hogarth’s campaigners in the adjoining electorate of Petrie as Roy needs from Howarth on Liberal Party Social policies.

ACTU speakers presented a well structured argument about what was wrong with Liberal policies but failed to address how to fix the problems. Brad Kennedy was sprooking his JOb Creating 3D Park proposal of a joint educational industrial complex to be located just East of Caboolture with planning for future growth.

The ACTU were advocating putting LNP last on ballot paper- hopefully this means that ALP has rejected completely their previous support for First Past Post voting.

Tony Z is correct about unemployment – Youth unemployment in Caboolture Radcliffe area is 18% close to that of that of Elizabeth SA, Northern Tasmania and Geelong where the Liberals economic policy has been felt most. Fear not Wyatt Roy thinks that a few Macadamias Nut farms in Longman are our future.

When did Labor support first-past-the-post voting??

Stop the presses, the ACTU doesn’t like the Liberal party. Gosh, I am astonished.

I think you can’t compare Longman to Petrie. One is a real battleground getting HQ resources and campaign specialists while Roy just has his local team.

I am not sure how much of a local team Wyatt Roy has. His initial team 2010 came from National Party Branch in Woodford.

Roy has campaign signs up in the Northern half of electorate but not in Southern half. Even the ex PUP Bill Board on Eastern Service Road near Burpengary Creek has been de-Wyatted and now allocates all credit for Bruce Highway improvements to Luke Howarth .

I took two trips over weekend Foirst trip North into Sunshine Coast Hinterland seat of Fisher (campaigning in full swing with ALP & LNP signs visible and prominent on Steve Irwin Way and Landsbotough-Maleny Road, and stalls at Maleny show) Second trip a day later into Northern Brisbane through Longman, Dickson, Petrie, & Ryan – Virtually no activity by anyone in Northern Brisbane seats. A few Green Corflutes up in Ryan (No doubt community activists) but commercial sign posters employed by majors not very active. No DLP signs up in Ryan even though Website states that John Quinn is Candidate. No FF signs up anywhere and only Pauline Hanson Sign I have seen is a Large Commercial one on her Albion HQ. In other words Political Party members are too bloody lazy to get out and work for their candidates.

Problem with all political parties today is that they are bereft of active members. Majors substitute members with cash and Parliamentary printing Allowances and minors with inactivity. The chances of a political party member dropping a leaflet into your letterbox is now just about zero.

Facebook is not a human face and is a means of pretending you are doing something.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

2012 state featured a veritable flood through the letterbox. I think both majors have pulled back a bit after that.

As for the minors and micros – we don’t, in general, have the people to do letterbox drops by hand, nor do we have the cash.

I definitely agree that the small and declining party membership in general is a problem.

ReachTEL poll in Longman gives 50-50 TPP on respondent allocated preferences off very plausible primary votes.

Sorry, forgot the link: https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-longman-poll-3june2016

Xenophon isn’t running a candidate here which distorts the poll

The XPT vote is paltry and the preferences are respondent allocated, so that shouldn’t distort anything.

It’s a surprisingly competitive result. Especially when it’s been claimed that Labor is faring poorly in suburban Brisbane.

We’ve seen a lot of interesting results in individual seat polling. However, we need to keep in mind that in the past, many of these have been notoriously inaccurate in predicting the final result.

I cast my mind back to the JWS research poll in 2010 which had Labor gaining Dunkley, Boothby and Cowper. While the result was totally out for the latter, the poll at least correctly predicted the direction of the former two and I think that is what this poll in Longman has done – there will be a swing away from Roy.

W of S
Good example . i can’t help thinking this might be due to the fact that Roy is such an unimpressive candidate in the first place.

Are you getting the feeling that Labor lost momentum this week ??. BTW that’s not to say anything about the coalition.

@Winediamond I am indeed, although I do not think it has necessarily translated into support for the Coalition.

The main vibe I am getting from the electorate is that most are disinterested, apathetic and irritated with Australia’s government over the last decade or so. Might be interesting to gauge the level of informal voting perhaps?

Ultimately though, I feel that unless people have a strong overriding incentive to vote for the ALP, that the Coalition will be returned. There isn’t very much reason to change the status quo, even if the government has performed well under expectations.

I know it is a bit early to be making predictions but at this point in time, I still think that the Coalition will be returned with a wafer-thin majority, but lose on the 2PP. Maybe something along the lines of 78 – 67?

Here is the Rechtel polling on Longman
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-longman-poll-3june2016

Wyatt Roy is one of only two Liberals who have been placed below ALP on a DLP How to Vote . In 1969 Gordon Freeth (who lost his seat as a consequence) and Wyatt Roy 2010 when my preferences went to an ALP candidate who was far more in line with DLP principles than Wyatt Roy. Roy is pro abortion , pro Same Sex Marriage and so free market that he supports free trade agreements with nations that put Australians out of work. I have even heard that Family First will be preferencing ALP ahead of him. This will will be a first for FF if it occurs.

The fact that it is being considered shows how far Roy is from traditional Coalition voters.

IT is clear from the Reachtel poll that traditional conservative voters are concerned about supporting Roy.

I suspect that all of the Nick Xenophon vote (for a non existent candidate) will flow to Brad Kennedy the KAP candidate so this is now a seat to watch.

A 50/50 vote at this point makes this seat highly vulnerable.

This area went solidly ALP at the state level last year. Turnbull struggles with outer suburban and regional voters and this is “struggling” rather than “aspirational” outer suburban. Wyatt Roy might have been a cute novelty when he was 20, but now I suspect he’s seen as just another politician who’s never had any experience in the real world.

Of course its going to be close. The poll shows a swing just short of the 7% needed, which is about what you’d expect in this seat, given a statewide swing of 3-4%.

Labor would DEFINITELY win this seat if it was all but certain they were going to win the election and it be called on election night but I just don’t think there’s a big enough anti-government swing to lose this seat. Yes it may be close because Wyatt is a bad MP and losing friends but it won’t be enough.

Watch out for Greg Riddell (last independent to join the race). His campaign logo “I’m an idiot” has a lot of people talking. Could this be the year for history breaking results? The first independent to be elected to the House of Reps? A lot of people are unhappy with the major parties!

I spent day at Morayfield South handing out How to Votes for Katter candidate Brad Kennedy.

IT was an interesting day with evidence that LNP had done significant pre-positioning of How to Votes with elderly Australians. Clearly significant % were very determined to ignore all Party Reps.

Officer in Charge of booth had to discipline a number of Party and Union Reps for intruding into 6 Metre exclusion zone. ACTU Rep made a valid complaint to OIC about Liberals accosting voters and this resulted in a bit of a barney between him and Wyatt Roy. OIC stood his ground and Roy backed down.

Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au

@AJ gotta be careful of polling booth behavior sometimes.

I remember at my first election handing out how-to-vote flyers, my friend and I were falsely accused of violating the 6m exclusion zone.

This occurred even though we were wearing no campaign paraphernalia at all and were not campaigning – we were just enjoying the famous election day sausage sizzle!

In any event, you were there AJ so what is your perception of the ground support for Roy? Is he in trouble? Or is that all hype?

Longman seems to be a three horse race.
Small businessman, the Cabbies and a host of middle aged LNP voters looking for alternative. KAP getting the bulk especially from Cabbies after the state KAP halted Uber. Labor is at best 33% currently with the greens – 7-9% and an Unknown minor polling nearling 11%. This confirms what the Rechtel poll from two weeks ago stated but the sample is small.
The scattered last minute nominations wont help the cause of de-seating Wyatt either so for me I still think its a 50/50. With a smaller field their may have been an opportunity for all minors to de-seat Wyatt but that doeskin seem to have happened. Still tight but the electorate is due for some good news after all the bad news lately. Early pre-polls have always favoured the LNP so we wont get a real feel till later into this week and moving closer to the day.

Sportsbet doesn’t see this as a “three horse race”. It has LNP at 1.20, Labor at 4.00, and then Greens at 51.00. No indication of KAP expecting anything notable.

I am hearing that young Wyatt is in trouble. Labor is quietly confident of taking this seat even though only meagre resources have been allocated to it. What is happening on the ground there?