Lindsay – Australia 2016

Jasper .. 6 in Qld seems a stretch – which ones did you have in mind? I can see 4 at best

@JH I look at it like this. Thus far, there are VERY few seats where Labor are *definitively* ahead and are on track to win. These are my definites for Labor ATM:
NSW: Page, Eden-Monaro, Paterson, Barton
NT: Solomon
WA: Burt

That’s only 6 seats which brings them up to 61. If the ALP were on track for government, they would be definitely ahead in many more than this.

Here are my liklies:
NSW: Dobell, Macarthur
QLD: Petrie, Capricornia
SA: Hindmarsh
WA: Either Cowan, Swan or Hasluck. I doubt they will win more than 1 of these – the swing has been receding in recent weeks.

This only gets Labor to 67. Further, these are VERY tentative. Most polls predict competitive races in all of these seats so I am assuming that some fall to Labor. If the Coalition incumbents have done their work however, then I believe that Labor will seriously struggle to even gain some of these.

Further, these figures do not factor in any Coalition gains. They already have one penciled in for sure in Fairfax. I would expect that Greenway is definitely in play. In Victoria, Chisholm is also within reach and Bruce to a lesser extent. From what I am hearing, there are also outside chances in JagaJaga, Melbourne Ports, Bendigo and McEwen. While I doubt that the Coalition will gain most of these, this is evidence of Labor’s struggle.

Additionally, these figures do not factor in Labor losses to the Greens. Batman is 50/50 in my books, while Wills looks vulnerable. Grayndler is an outside chance too. With these numbers, I find it difficult to believe Labor can win the election.

For a final figure, I would expect Labor to be somewhere between 65 – 70 seats – not enough to form government.

Wreathy should your best case scenario occur re the sea of blue in Vic, Malcolm’s name will be revered more that Pig Iron Bob’s in Lib circles.

Jasper .. Please tell me the 6 seats the ALP will get in QLD

@JH It’s not a sea of blue. I said they are outside chances. TBH the Libs will be lucky to gain 1 but my point stands.

Another thing, Labor will probably gain one seat in Tasmania. But at this point, I honestly have no idea which one it will be.

W OF S
i pretty much agree with you.

However you have neglected NXT .

IMV they are more likely to lose Hindmarsh to NXT , than to labor.
Certainly Mayo is gone
Probably Barker , Hindmarsh,
Possibly Grey , Boothby, & even Sturt.
A lib wipeout is possible.

In such circumstance labor would not be immune . they could only bank on Kingston, & Port

@Winediamond that is correct, however I was talking about whether Labor could get into government. I do not really know how many of their SA seats are vulnerable, although Wakefield and Adelaide are possibilities.

If we’re talking about prospects for Lib losses, then the situation changes slightly:
NSW: Cowper
SA: Mayo, Hindmarsh

On these results, the Libs would be on 76. I do not think that NXT will pick up more than 2 seats from the Liberals. If they did however, Labor would still be nowhere near government – it’s just the losses to NXT would stop the Coalition from winning too.

Seems to me that the question should more be framed how many seats will the govt lose? This is a current possibility;

Qld: 3-4
NSW: 3-4
Vic: 1?
Tas: 1
NT: 1
WA: 2-3
SA: 3-5
That’s a loss of between 13 – 19…..most of that range brings us a hung parliament. Hardly, the stability and certainty changing PMs was meant to bring! Whatever the outcome, we can expect more instability in the govt.

@Yappo I agree, the change in PMs didn’t give stability at all. The swings are deep and the electorate volatile too.

Although I do think you are overestimating government losses in WA and SA. I think the margin in Swan is just too high for the ALP to breach while Wyatt in Hasluck should be able to hold on. I think Cowan is the only realistic possibility for Labor to be confident of performing well in.

What seats are you including in SA? I know that polls have said that Barker and Grey would be lost, but given the rural nature of these electorates I am very skeptical about this. Boothby is a possibility, but the polls I’ve seen have the Libs narrowly but consistently ahead.

SA 3-5? Oh please!

W of S
I refuse to believe that Oakeshott can win Cowper.

Trust me with the resources the Nat’s are pouring into Cowper, Oakey is a shoe in!

@Winediamond as much as I hate Oakeshott, it is pretty clear that he still retains significant support in Cowper. While I would love for him to lose the contest, I’d tip him to win it in a close fight.

Honestly, none of us can really say what will happen in SA. However, it is clear that the base statewide vote puts NXT in contention for a few seats off both majors.

NXT really are a wildcard and the recent rhectoric of the majors reflects that. Recent polling and commentary has indicated NXT is a good shot for 4 senate seats, up from the seemingly assumed 3. Translate that few % increase in recent weeks into the lower house and even Sturt becomes a slight risk, still very unlikely in my view. If you take the time to read the suburban press/local rags, there is a clear % of voters that want to ‘shake up’ the majors.

I see the govt losing Mayo, Hindmarsh & Boothby. Grey is a possibility, not Barker. A couple of other seats could come into play but we have to see what the polling numbers are like later this week.

It seems a bit unfair that we are discussing general House of Reps stuff in a local seat forum. I think we would all like a House of Reps Aus wide forum. Pretty please Ben?

jasper .. 6 QLD seats? please list

Yes I a, working on it Dubopov!

Yappo
ON your scenario NXT would hold the balance of power, with 4 – 7+ seats.
The govt is not going to do that badly.

my strongest gut reaction to your prediction is WRT to QLD. Petrie looks a likely casualty. However IMV that’s it, although labor would see themselves as favourites to win Capricornia. IMV if that were to happen, labor would be ahead by now ITFP.

Ok Dubopov herewith is my Qld shopping list. Brisbane, Capricornia, Dawson, Flynn, Herbert, Longman, and Petrie. Oops that is 7. Never mind it is late and I am tired.

If we use Sportsbet, then the following holds:

Coalition have 75 “solid” seats (4 are Lib vs Nat competitions) – seats where their odds are better than 1.50, plus 4 “close” seats (1.50 or worse). Labor has 61 “solid” plus 5 “close”, Greens have a “solid”, NXT has a “close”. You then add Wilkie, McGowan, and Katter, all of whom have “safe” levels.

It’s worth noting that this is following the most recent Galaxy poll, which has skewed some numbers from where they were beforehand.

Some other interesting notes: Greens are second party in 10 seats – strong second-party in Batman and Wills, and distant second party in Cook, Whitlam, Sydney, Grayndler, Higgins, Scullin, Gellibrand, and Fremantle. They’re also close-ish third (better than 20.00) in Richmond and Melbourne Ports.

NXT are second in 9 seats – close in Boothby, Sturt, Grey, Barker, Makin, Kingston, Port Adelaide, and Wakefield, and distant in Groom. They’re also close-ish third in Macarthur, Warringah, Hindmarsh, and Adelaide.

Other notables are the independents who are running second in Cowper (2.75 – Oakeshott), New England (3.50 – Windsor), Warringah (9.00 – Matheson), and Mackellar, Menzies, and Tangney (all 16.00).

If I had to guess how it’ll play out, I’d say that a few surprises will happen, most of which will impact Liberal numbers. I think Liberals will end up on 73 or 74 – just enough to make them have to get support from a few crossbenchers. I see Oakeshott taking Cowper, NXT picking up at least one more SA seat (I’m thinking both Grey and Barker will go NXT), and I see Labor picking up Lindsay and Macquarie, with a possible Labor gain in Gilmore and a possible Windsor regain in New England. I could also see Braddon and Bass fall to Labor.

Labor’s not going to make it into government outright, but if this week goes well for them, they could definitely make it to the point where they would be the favourites to form government in a hung parliament. I would suggest that Labor would get support from Bandt, Wilkie, and McGowan, and would have strong potential to win over the NXT MPs, and possibly Windsor or Oakeshott. Katter will go with Coalition.

@JH IMV that is VERY optimistic for Labor. If they are not certainties in Petrie and Capricornia at this stage, then I severely doubt that they will be picking up Brisbane and Longman, let alone get anywhere near Flynn, Herbert and Dawson.

WoS I agree with that assessment mainly. I would add Capricornia to the definites then add Flynn, Gilmore and Longman to the liklies.

I do not expect all the likelies to fall, but yes to the majority of them.

On your point about Victorian gains and Greenway. I expect Parramatta and Moreton could also be in play. Oxley and Blair were also suggested to me but that seems overly optimistic.

I even wonder about the Nats picking up Indi and/or Kennedy.

I think in the end Labor end up with around 65 seats. That said this week could change that completely.

I also expect the splintering of the conservative vote by Katter, One Nation and Lazarus could do funny things to Hinkler, Dawson and Herbert.

@Glen I still think that for Labor to be close to forming a government, everything would need to go right for them.

It is far more likely IMV that the Coalition will be closer in a hung parliament. Then again, they’re even more likely IMV to get a majority unless something goes disastrously wrong for them this week.

@QA Thanks! Although I am skeptical about Capricornia. History tells me that Labor will easily take it, but published polling and anecdotes on the ground say that it is very much 50/50. I very much have my doubts about Longman, the margin is simply too large for Labor to overcome IMV, same with Gilmore. Of all those choices, Flynn is the likeliest dark horse although I am personally not convinced that the joblessness and minor party votes will screw up LNP chances here.

Parramatta has been mentioned as a possibility but I think the local profile of Owens will probably be enough to stunt any Liberal chances here. Same in Moreton. Oxley is definitely an optimistic prospect and I doubt even if it does swing to the LNP, that they will win it.

Nevertheless, I agree with your conclusion. Labor somewhere between 65 – 70 seats.

Glen you will give Wreathy conniptions with that analogy. My only comment would be that McGowan, Katter and NXT would side with the Libs. Brandt, Wilkie, Oakshott, and Windsor (if he makes it) more likely with Lab.

Wreathy – Petrie is seen by punters are almost certain to fall (1.15 to Labor). Capricornia is closer, of course. But then, it’s also worth noting that both are going to get sophomore surges, so using them to estimate likelihood of picking up non-sophomore cases isn’t really reasonable.

Brisbane’s lost the incumbent (Gambaro retired), so it’s probably going to get a much larger swing to Labor than seen in Capricornia or Petrie. Longman’s a harder call.

As for Flynn, Herbert, and Dawson… well, Dawson might be impacted by Christensen’s politics that have been particularly obvious in the last 3 years, and Flynn would be a difficult one to manage but is still within the range of “plausible”. I agree on Herbert – it’s not going to fall to Labor on Saturday, barring some last-minute surprise (and polling seems to agree with me consistently on this).

Jasper – I think McGowan will support Labor, because of the vindictive way that the Liberals have been treating her. And I don’t think Oakeshott and Windsor are so strongly likely to support Labor – they could go either way.

NXT are also difficult to call. They do have slightly more right-wing politics in general, but I think their big concerns lie on the left, instead, and this is more likely to influence their decision. To quote their website, “If we are in the unlikely position where our support is required to form Government, we will support the party that is prepared to support and implement our positions on Predatory Gambling, Australian Made & Australian Jobs and Government & Corporate Accountability.” – I think Labor is more likely to do this (Nationals would support the “Australian Made” thing, but Liberals are much more interested in “free market”).

Q Observer
i agree completely with Wreathy’s post to you 8.05 pm.

Glen
As a Queenslander yourself, i’m surprised that you don’t account for this as a factor . The mere fact that Rudd is not standing will work against the ALP.

There exists in QLD perverse parochialism that would play out along the lines of yes he was a dick , but he was one of US !!!. Queenslanders are different to other australians.

winediamond – I think you’d be surprised. Queenslanders do tend to favour their own, but it’s not quite as strong as you think. Consider that the average national swing against Labor in 2013 was 4.5% (primary vote), whereas, for example, Herbert saw a 10.8% swing against Labor, 6.4% against Labor in Flynn, and 8.7% against Labor in Capricornia. This was in an election where Gillard had been replaced by Rudd.

Labor hit a low-water mark in Queensland in 2013. They got 29.77% of primary votes in Queensland in 2013. Labor has NEVER before had a primary vote below 30% in Queensland. The nearest it came was in 1998, when they hit 30.86%.

The switch back to Rudd in 2013 stopped the haemorrhaging that had been occurring in Queensland, but it’s not like it took Queensland from “net loss” to “net gain”. And the reverse won’t occur, now. Rudd’s been gone for 3 years, people aren’t thinking about that, and the few notable Queensland MPs in the Coalition don’t really stand out (unless you count Brough, Dutton, and Christensen, MPs that aren’t broadly liked, except *maybe* in their own electorates).

I’d expect the pendulum to swing back, given how far it had swung in 2010 and 2013.

Glen
i am NEVER surprised about QLD !!!. IMV without Rudd , labor would have been obliterated.

The data you have put forward is comprehensive <& very interesting. However it is open to interpretation. Thank you for the effort though.

i'd expect the swing to labor to be quite modest. We shall see…..

cheers WD

Just a bit of further comment – it seems that Labor considers Flynn a “Likely Gain” alongside Capricornia, according to PollBludger. Meanwhile, Dawson is viewed as “precarious” – could go either way. No mention of Herbert – which matches my own gut instinct on it.

And to bring it back to the topic of Lindsay, apparently Labor views it less solidly than Macarthur, but I think it’s saying Labor views it as a possibility, just not a likelihood.

(it might be worth Ben adding a daily “general discussion” for the rest of this week, so that people can talk about the overall expectations, etc in this final week)

@Glen seconded!

Look what a mess we’ve made of the Lindsay thread…

:'(

Glen……… there is a lot out there……Page, Robertson, Banks and Reid are also possible as is Solomon and extra in Wa……… this is an add on to yr assessment’……… I think there are maybe 30 seats that could be lost by the libs if all goes well…… say 5 not to labor but to nxt and independants
yess a prediction space is A GOOD IDEA

Are we seriously discussing the chance of Labor losing seats? Even after their low point of 2013 and inevitably doing better this around even just by default. If Labor even loses one seat, that’s horrific.

Mick – Page wasn’t on the list because punters are already strongly favouring Labor as winning (1.27), so it’s part of the 61 “solid” seats. Same with Solomon (in that case, it’s “close”, at 1.55).

Robertson, Banks, and Reid are all plausible, but punters are solidly expecting them to remain Liberal, with the closest one being 1.25 to the Liberals. I won’t rule them out, but polls so far seem to suggest they’re borderline at best for Labor, and of those, Reid is the only one that punters have considered to be “close” at any point since I started tracking in the middle of the month.

@FtB it happens. Even in the 1931 wipeout where Labor was absolutely obliterated, and completely destroyed, they picked up 2 seats. All the while losing something like 30+ more seats in a parliament of 75.

FeeltheBern – there are a few seats out there that are at risk for Labor. Mostly, seats where the sitting member is retiring, things like that. There’s almost always a seat or two that goes against the trend. In 2010, Labor lost 13 seats… and gained 2; McEwen because of a retiring Liberal member, La Trobe due to fortuitous preference flows. In 2007, the Coalition lost 25 seats… and picked up Swan and Cowan from Labor – Cowan because of a retiring Labor member, Swan because it was so marginal and had a tiny swing to the Liberals.

I’ve heard that there’s some concern about Lilley, although I find it hard to believe that Wayne Swan will actually lose his seat, if he didn’t lose it in 2013.

Incidentally, here are the seats that punters are predicting will change hands (not including Fairfax, but does include redistributed seats, based on current incumbent party): Petrie, Capricornia, Solomon, Eden Monaro, Dobell, Page, Paterson, Macarthur, Barton, Mayo, Cowan, Burt (based on notional), Lyons. All except Mayo are from Coalition to Labor.

Curiously, current sportsbet numbers have not a single Victorian seat changing hands, although La Trobe and Batman are fairly close (Coalition at 1.50 to Labor’s 2.50 in La Trobe, and Labor at 1.52 to Greens’ 2.10 in Batman).

Glen
Are there no numbers from sportsbet on Chisholm, or Bruce ??.

winediamond – there has been numbers, but sportsbet seems to occasionally have one or two disappear. According to my records, the last time I was able to see them, Bruce had Labor on 1.10 and Coalition on 6.00 (no others better than 51.00). Chisholm had Labor on 1.30 and Coalition on 3.30 (again, no others better than 51.00).

Same problem has afflicted Durack – it’s not listed on Sportsbet at the moment (and I haven’t seen it for the last few days) – last I saw it, it had Liberals on 1.08, Nationals on 7.00, and Labor on 34.00.

Never heard of this guy but he writes well….. 😉
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/27/national-and-electorate-polling-suggests-coalition-victory-but-not-by-much

GLEN
Thanks for that. Its interesting that Chisholm appears to be in a similar range to Greenway, my 2 picks for counter movement.

Yappo
The bloke does write well. However his view is that the trend will not change. I disagree with this , & feel that labor will lose momentum in this last week.
Some will say that is because of various political judgements. Such as releasing the mediscare campaign to early, or changing the focus from 100 positive policies, etc, etc.
It is actually far more simple. Labor think they have offered the people something to vote FOR, but this is illusory. Labor have not been willing to reform themselves, therefore their contentions about reforming anything else have little credibility, or authenticity.

Shorten himself embodies this constraint. Labor need to find a Tony Blair to create a “new Labor”. Until they do things are unlikely to change.

@Winediamond I totally agree, Greenway and Chisholm will both change hands IMV – likely an under 1% margin for the Libs when all is said and done.

The Liberals campaign has offered absolutely nothing..no vision, no economic reform plans, just spin and waffle! Turnbull talked about economic vision when replacing Abbott but has offered less direction than Abbott did. After Abbott very successfully conveyed the need to cut debt, the obvious option for Turnbull was to keep this blowtorch applied against Shorten but say that he will implement debt / deficit reduction fairly (subtext – unlike the 2014 budget). Instead of running from Negative Gearing reform, he should have embraced it. Instead he offered the 50 Billion business tax cut proposal which undermines the whole message.

However, fear not! The ALP have now come to the rescue! Instead of keeping the focus on the “do nothing” Turnbull and his 50 Billion big business giveaway + their own positive plans, they have spent the last week running up this Medicare blind alley. What the voters will deduce from this is that they don’t have anything to run on either.

Back to psephology… I agree Greenway is in play. If you apply the Lindsay swing (4%) to the 2010 Greenway result the seat would be sitting at about 53.5% on the Liberal side of the ledger now. Thats pretty much precisely the (non-sophomore adjusted) swing I’d expect in this area on Saturday, meaning Greenway should be pretty much line ball.

Peterjk23
Have you ignored my assessment of the’ so -called $50 million tax ” giveaway ” to so called ,big business’ (turnover of $2 -10 million )??.

If so why ??.

It is complete nonsense, as i ‘ve explained several times, in more than sufficient depth.To typify this policy in this way is false , misleading , & disingenuous. Simple as that.

It also demonstrates a fundamental lack of understanding, or misrepresentation of company tax, which is in reality simply, a withholding tax.

Personally i’m not happy about a reduction of company tax because it debases the value of the franking credits i possess in my family company, & i will end up paying MORE personal tax as a result. Anyone else that has incorporated will be in the same boat.

This exemplifies , partially , why the govt will collect more tax by cutting this tax, as has been proven repeatedly in the past.

Prediction: will be close, Liberals have their nose ahead at the moment

Well guys good to see the election is all over and a sea of blue overflowing us all. Not quite so quick methinks, your overconfidence is showing just a tad. Hmmm there might be a few surprises come Saturday evening. I have been praying to St Gough for a miracle!

@JH we might be a bit overconfident – BUT! With good reason. No government has been defeated after only a single term in nearly a century. There seems to be little reason to think that will change now.

While it is indubitable that there *is* dissatisfaction with the government there are two critical aspects missing:
1) Overbearing desire for change
2) Inspiration with Opposition policy

Without these 2 I’m afraid, the odds are against Bill. Of course this does not mean he will *definitely* lose – I’d argue that Abbott also lacked these elements in 2010 and he came very close, but it does weight the odds heavily against Labor.

Wreathy we both know the fickle nature of the electorate. When my side won the last Qld election the critical aspects as you suggest were not apparent. The conservatives were overconfident and it came back to bite them. Dejavu Wreathy?

@JH apples and oranges. State government can and have been defeated after one term – it is far more common.

At a federal level, VERY unlikely. Unless of course we count Gillard 😉