LIB 4.0%
Incumbent MP
Jason Wood, since 2013. Previously 2004-2010.
Geography
La Trobe covers the south eastern fringe of Melbourne and parts of the Dandenong Ranges. Major centres include Belgrave, Berwick, Narre Warren and Ferntree Gully. It covers parts of Cardinia, Casey, Knox and Yarra Ranges local government areas.
History
La Trobe was first created after the Second World War when the House of Representatives was expanded at the 1949 election. The seat was first won by Richard Casey, who had previously been an MP and minister before resigning from Parliament in 1940 to serve in a variety of diplomatic roles during the war.
Casey served as a minister for eleven years before resigning in 1960. John Jess won the seat for the Liberal Party in a by-election that year and held the seat until his defeat in 1972, when Whitlam’s national victory swept Tony Lamb into La Trobe. He lost the seat in 1975 and later returned to Parliament serving in the seat of Streeton from 1984 to 1990.
Marshall Baillieu won the seat for the Liberals in 1975 and held it until 1980. That year he was defeated by Peter Milton who held it until 1990 for the ALP. Bob Charles defeated Milton in 1990 and held the seat until 2004, during which he served on the shadow ministry from 1994 to 1996.
Charles retired in 2004 and he was succeeded by Jason Wood. Wood’s 5.8% margin in 2004 was cut to 0.5% in 2007, but he held on in the face of the election of the Rudd government. In 2010, Wood was defeated by Labor candidate Laura Smyth. Both major party candidates suffered negative swings, but Smyth benefited from a swing to the Greens and the Sex Party’s candidacy. La Trobe was one of only two seats that the ALP gained off the Coalition in an election where Labor lost ground and lost its parliamentary majority.
Jason Wood won back La Trobe in 2013, thanks to a 5.7% swing.
Candidates
- Tom Cummings (Greens)
- Leah Folloni (Animal Justice)
- Julieanne Doidge (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- Simon Curtis (Labor)
- Les Hughes (Liberal Democrats)
- Margaret Quinn (Rise Up Australia)
- Jason Wood (Liberal)
- David Fent (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- Martin Leahy (Sex Party)
- Jeffrey Bartram (Family First)
Assessment
La Trobe is a key marginal which has changed hands multiple times in recent years, but you would expect Jason Wood to gain some benefit from not facing Laura Smyth, who would have held some personal vote in 2013.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 40,925 | 46.1 | +3.0 |
| Laura Smyth | Labor | 28,488 | 32.1 | -7.4 |
| Michael Schilling | Greens | 8,905 | 10.0 | -2.0 |
| Jason Grant Kennedy | Palmer United Party | 4,514 | 5.1 | +5.1 |
| Martin Leahy | Sex Party | 2,475 | 2.8 | +0.5 |
| Daniel Martin | Family First | 1,680 | 1.9 | -0.7 |
| Rachel Jenkins | Democratic Labour Party | 1,168 | 1.3 | +1.3 |
| Kevin Seaman | Rise Up Australia | 711 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Informal | 4,083 | 4.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jason Wood | Liberal | 47,998 | 54.0 | +5.7 |
| Laura Smyth | Labor | 40,868 | 46.0 | -5.7 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Those booths contained in Casey local government area in the south-west were grouped as ‘south’. Those contained in Cardinia LGA, along with a single booth in Yarra Ranges which is separated from the remainder of the booths in that council, have been grouped as ‘west’. The remaining booths in Yarra Ranges and Knox have been grouped as ‘north’.
The Liberal Party won a large 57% majority in the west, and a slightly smaller 54% in majority in the south, while Labor won 54% in the north.
The Greens vote ranged from 6% in the south to 17% in the north.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 5.9 | 54.1 | 26,604 | 29.9 |
| North | 17.4 | 45.9 | 18,762 | 21.1 |
| East | 10.2 | 57.3 | 12,144 | 13.7 |
| Other votes | 9.0 | 57.6 | 31,356 | 35.3 |
This is a real chance for Labor. Laura Smyth didn’t have much of a personal vote. Jason Wood has no personal, after all he’s been there three terms and most people wouldn’t even know who he is around the electorate. On the other hand Labor’s candidate is popular and well known, especially around the part of the electorate with the big dark blue 67 and 65, I’d expect those booths to swing towards Labor in the manner of 8-9%
Agree very much with L96. I mean if Wood couldn’t even hold it in 2010 with two-term name recognition irrespective of the statewide swing to Labor, then I really doubt his chances of holding it now when the momentum will be hugely away from the Coalition.
W of S, & L96
You’re conclusions are perfectly reasonable, & rational. However , Victorians march to the sound of a different drum. Like QLDer’s they are australians second, because they are better, & know better !!!. It shakes em up, when it is pointed out that this put them,in company with the QLDers !!!!.
It is too soon to be speculating on the size of the swing. We have an election campaign too endure.
A slightly unusual seat, in that the urban parts are stronger for the Liberals than the “rural” areas.
Berwick and Beaconsfield have seen enormous change from semi-rural towns to suburbia, but this doesn’t seem to have affected the Liberal vote there.
MM
Too true. However the rural areas have been drifting liberal over the last decade haven’t they ??.
WRT to the rest. 2 quotes.
Professor Steve Biddulph. ” The mortgage is a noose around the neck of the australian male ”
Samuel Johnson “A noose around a man’s neck focusses the mind wonderfully !!”
What makes the Northern part so good for the Greens?
Morgieb
I think it is classic “treehugger ” territory in the Yarra Ranges !!!. Will have to ask my Melbourne mates
(My comment didn’t get published first time? Hopefully no double post)
The north of the seat covers part of the Dandenong Ranges, so it’s a demographic a bit like the Blue Mountains. If anything, I’d expect this area to continue trending towards Labor, as tree-changers and artistic/alternative types continue to settle in the area.
But as I said before, the southern part of the seat remains quite good for the Liberals despite significant change. This may change as suburbia paves over the last remaining rural parts of Berwick and Beaconsfield, but personally I am bit surprised that the Liberals are polling so strongly in some of those booths.
A good parallel for Latrobe would probably be the NSW seat of Macquarie.
MM
Only in the north. The rest more closely resembles the northern parts of Greenway.
I live in La Trobe, and I’m in the Berwick, which is really strong Liberal territory. I agree MM that this is an unusual seat, the north is rural and quite Green, but i would suspect over time that it moves even more towards Labor due to the fact it has a lower average income then most Green areas especially closer to the city. The area in La Trobe are more ideologically Green and aren’t necessarily impressed by Di Natale.
L96
How could they have been impressed with his predecessor ??. She was dangerously delusional
Winediamond if your saying that Victorians are like Queenslanders then your saying they will warm to Shorten and either allow labor to retain its seats and gain some.
Dan
That is a ridiculous proposition , & conclusion. Grow up !!!. Re read my post & attempt a more constructive, & thoughtful post
BTW it is childish in the extreme, to attempt putting words in someone mouth.
The whole reason labor won big in qld and then bad was the leader was from qld as they are passionate about thier state first which is the point you were making. Further there is very few times when Victorians buck trends like qld
Qld and Vic are completely different propositions, the rural and decentralised population of Queensland makes it politically volatile. Whilst Victoria is naturally Labor territory.
La Trobe is still a toss up, the fact of the matter is that Wood lacks a personal vote and his opponent should have a reasonable personal vote. The swing towards Labor in Victoria is starting to become out of control for the Libs and this will put not only La Trobe in danger of falling but also Corangamite, Dunkley and Deakin.
Dan
Correct. Also QLDer’s have many other grievances, complexes,suspicions, & grudges.
i.e. The “Brisbane Line ” !!!. FFS that was70 + yrs ago, & it didn’t even eventuate !!!.
As i pointed out in my Forde post there was a much larger PUP vote in QLD. The PUP vote in Victoria was small.
It is entirely unpredictable where these votes will go.
In Victoria 2007 – 2010 was the lib low water mark. The greens did very poorly in 2013. A new trend is not clear.
The trouble for the Liberal party is irrelevant in Victoria because they’re competitive where it matters nationwide.
No government has ever won without winning a majority of seats in NSW and that is where nearly all major battles are fought. This is partially reflected in the shift in Liberal strategy ie. NSW leaders and the general and antithetical trend of both states.
Victoria used to be the ‘crown jewel in the Liberal crown’ while NSW was really more solidly ALP, that is completely reversing now. It is worth noting that Abbott won a higher 2PP in NSW than all of his predecessors barring Holt in the ’66 landslide.
The interesting thing with this seat is that it really is three separate parts. Narre Warren and Berwick in the south are full of mortgage belt and estates. In the north west is the established older leafy suburban areas of Ferntree Gully and Boronia. These two areas are really not connected by any major transport links or community of interest. And, in between, the ranges, acreages and small pockets of hinterland tree-hugger communities voting Green for purely environmental reasons (as opposed to inner city urban Green supporters).
Jason Wood actually would have nullified any sophomore surge Laura Smyth received last time, being on the ballot in 2010 and still there for 2013. As she only won by the slimmest of margins in 2010, there would have been very little personal vote for her. Jason Wood’s billboards have been on display at Fountain Gate Shopping Centre (actually within Holt) since about February. I would say he has no second surge this time, as he has never not been on the ballot. Still, from what I’ve seen, he does not seem to have a big personal vote and may be in trouble, if the Labor candidate is as popular as L96 says.
All I remember about Jason Wood is his genetically modified orgasms speech. This seat could go either wayreally
GG
This would have to be the most vulnerable seat for the Libs, & yet there is curious lack of noise…..
The Libs have no signage up in Berwick and Beaconsfield which is quite odd, considering that is strongest territory, at the last election Jason Wood’s placards were in nearly every street. Conversely, there is a lot of signage for the Labor candidate in Berwick.
I’ve actually heard some rumblings suggesting the Libs have pulled most resources out of here and are focusing on Dunkley, Bruce, Chisholm and Corangamite, and are running low key in Deakin. Adding to that a story for Fairfax last week said that the Libs were expecting to lose 12 seats and La Trobe would be one of the 12 most vulnerable.
This is the state where Mr Kroger likes the greens.. seats like Dunkley and this one could be retained by the forces of darkness if the Greens issue an open ticket in them
If the Greens issue an open ticket it will make very little difference – 80-85% of Greens voters will preference the ALP no matter.
L96, those “rumblings” don’t make much sense to me.
Pulling out of one of their own seats that is held by 4%, in order to invest effort in Labor held seats in Bruce and Chisholm? If anything, it would be the other way around.
@Mark Mulcair – every seat is different. It doesn’t seem that farfetched that they would try to use the loss of incumbents in Bruce and Chisholm – both marginal seats in areas that are potentially more receptive to Turnbull’s liberalism – even if they think La Trobe will be lost.
I feel like the Libs are putting a lot of effort into Bruce and Chisholm now, so that in the future when they have a swing towards them they can pick them up without a lot of effort and in my view they are much more suited to the Liberal Party then La Trobe is.
I have to agree with Mark. This doesn’t pass the smell test. It makes zero sense for the Libs to give up La Trobe to concentrate on Chisholm and Bruce. On the basis of the last election, La Trobe is nearly 6% more Liberal leaning than the other two seats. Retiring members be damned – personal votes are rarely that large in urban electorates.
Nor would campaign strategy be based on long term trends. That goes especially so in a highly competitive election; you compete for what’s on offer now. The long term can wait for the long term.
I’d just add that there was leaked internal polling suggesting that the Libs were at risk in Dunkley and were polling reasonably in Bruce and Chisholm, no mention of La Trobe though. Perhaps they have some information that we don’t, and we probably won’t know until election day unless something interesting happens.
Greens are expected to poll above expectation with Tom Cummings, Greens polled 12.3% in 2010 and 10% in 2013 and having 10 candidates contesting could see Greens in contention get in on preferences but it seems unlikely that they can get enough primary votes then either of the major parties to receive such preferences. Greens are running a good campaign across the electorate while Libs & Labor seem to be focusing on the South, with a close battle in Berwick, despite being liberal leaning, their appears to be a lot of personal support for S. Curtis, which L. Smyth simply didn’t have.
Yeah I too am interested to see how well the Greens will poll here. Tom Cummings seems to be a high profile candidate compared to other Greens candidates contesting seats where they don’t really have a chance of winning.
I haven’t seen anything from Cummings, but then again I’m in Berwick. There are a lot of Labor signs in front yards this time around and oddly very few Liberal ones.
I’d expect the Greens to get up around 15%, although with Animal Justice running that might take away 2-3% from them. Overall with the 10 candidates contesting, and the ballot positions, I would say Labor has a minor advantage.
I haven’t seen anything from Cummings, but then again I’m in Berwick. There are a lot of Labor signs in front yards this time around and oddly very few Liberal ones.
I’d expect the Greens to get up around 15%, although with Animal Justice running that might take away 2-3% from them. Overall with the 10 candidates contesting, and the ballot positions, I would say Labor has a minor advantage.
Greens – Cummings is 1st on the ballot, may push for 18-20%, he’ll need to start getting popular South if his any chance, His got signs up North. Interesting SFF is contesting. Expect Berwick booths to deliver strong Labor support, Curtis is campaigning well South not sure how he’ll go North and East though, you suspect Curtis will narrowly win the seat on Greens preferences, if Cummings isn’t able to get up.
Cummings won’t win, he’s no chance. The Greens poll well where they usually do but the south of the seat isn’t fertile ground for them, so there isn’t much point for him even trying around Berwick.
I’d expect to see a swing towards the Greens and Labor on primary vote in the north and i wouldn’t be shocked if they came in the top two in those orange booths, but as the race will come down to Lib/Labor the majority of Green preferences should flow to Labor.
I suspect the libs have no chance of a win in Bruce and Chisholm……. Dunkley is a possible gain….. with Bilson’s retirement. My claim with the green open ticket stands
the number of votes received by labor via green preferences will reduce. This may will make a difference to the liberals chances of holding…… their 4 marginal seats ”””””’
My elderly grandfather, a loyal Liberal voter who lives in this seat, says he’ll be putting Wood last because he didn’t support Abbott. That’s at least one swing vote!
Max, His more than welcome to vote for Tom Cummings, The Greens, I suspect he’ll support the Lib Democrats if his a Loyal Lib voter. I think Libs are deserting La Trobe. I disagree with the tally room’s assessment, Smyth like Wood didnt have any personal vote, unlike Curtis, I think Libs have given up, It won’t be the first time Wood has lost La Trobe.
Perhaps there are Abbott Liberals out there willing to cut off their noses to spite their faces. But I don’t believe there are enough of them to make a difference. Voting is compulsory and by-and-large they loathe Labor more than they loathe Turnbull. There’s also plenty of small right-wing parties through which they can lodge a protest (primary) vote.
@DW whose preferences flow right back to the Liberal Party when all is said and done.
Sportsbet has Coalition ahead, Labor not too far behind.
Coalition 1.60, Labor 2.25
Due to the preference deal fallout, the Greens are preferencing Labor here instead of running open tickets. Thats a big win for Labor, many in Curtis’ team were worried about that.
Although Wood does like to spruik his apparent environmentalist views, and has been known to hand out green coloured how to vote cards in a ploy to confuse voters.
Also my understanding with the large group of candidates was to do with the upper house electoral changes, henceforth the minor parties are running and preferencing Labor.
Coalition are strengthening a little, here
Coalition 1.50, Labor 2.50
I was handing out HTV cards for Labor as I usually do. The Libs are running hard on the CFA dispute, even though it’s a state issue and It doesn’t seem to being making a difference to voters.
The United Firefighters Union are also handing out HTVs, albeit against the Libs, that seems to be going down better, mostly because they are actually firefighters.
The AJP are preferencing the Libs, and the Shooters and Fishers, Hinch, Sex and the Greens are preferencing Labor.
… Shooters and Fishers are preferencing Labor? That’s surprising. Although, maybe it’s a “preference the one that doesn’t hold the seat” approach?
@L96 it’s interesting isn’t it? Some data tells us that state and federal issues are so often conflated and extremely formative on each other, while on the other hand, how is it possible to have ALP state governments all across the nation even when John Howard comfortably won office nationwide?
What’s your opinion on Labor’s campaign here? How likely is it to succeed?
My prediction: Liberals favoured for now, Wood has lost the seat before, but won it back in 2013, and could lose again. The next week could make or break Wood’s future.
Prediction is, Not sure if Curtis get top spot, but Wood (Libs) will lose to Curtis (Labor) on Greens preferences fairly easily.
I live in La Trobe in the tree-hugging northern part of the electorate and have been following it all closely. Labor have a very strong candidate in Simon Curtis but I’m not sure it will be enough to get him over the line. In 2013 Jason Wood received 46.05% of primary votes and Labor 32.05% with Greens at 10%, Palmer United at 5%. Population growth in this electorate is almost all at the southern end around Berwick (strongly Lib voting). The Hills area has a very old demographic and almost no new housing as subdivision is heavily restricted (and the cost of building bushfire-proof housing prohibitive). Some new development in Boronia which may favour Labor but in a very small geographical area. Overall though, population growth is in Berwick, Narre Warren and Beaconfield. Labor was astute to select a candidate with a solid background in the Southern area who has campaigned very, very well. However, unless Curtis has managed to swing many former Lib voters in his area over, I’d be skeptical he can pull it off. If new voters in new housing developments in the southern areas vote in similiar percentages to existing voters in those areas then the momentum will be against Labor, despite having a better candidate. To date, I have seen no polls on this electorate and will be watching carefully. Jason Wood is a fairly mediocre member however the Liberal Party has given him a lot of support, extensive paid social media promotion over the past 2 years and delivered staggering amounts of junk mail on his behalf (90% of deliveries are Liberal and their allied entities). Lots of LIberal heavies have visited the area and promised extraordinary amounts of loot. The CFA dispute will unfortunately cost Labor quite a few votes in the forested areas of the electorate where locals love the CFA (lots of signage in shops etc). The Greens will do well in the Northern part of the electorate maxing out at 12% overall would be my guess.
Bill Shorten was in the electorate this morning. Senior Liberals very active here in the past 2 weeks. Must show both parties’ polling has this seat as highly competitive. Another Lib mailbox drop this morning, via AusPost I think. La. Trobe likely to be very close on Saturday.
@C66 I agree. I do not think the statewide swing in Victoria will be enough for Labor to win here, despite a spirited campaign and mediocre MP.