Hinkler – Australia 2016

This was a key seat at a few elections in the last few decades, although it did include Gladstone before the creation of Flynn in 2007. It was the focus of a lot of campaigning in 2004 and if I remember correctly Bundaberg was the site of one of the last of Mark Latham’s community forums.

Although now safer than any seat further north up the coast, given Labor’s win in Bundaberg in the state election is it possible the margin here is a bit inflated?

Labor may have won Bundaberg at the state election, but they didn’t come close in Hervey Bay.

The removal of Gladstone made this a natural coalition seat. With a first term sitting member here, I’d expect a below average swing to Labor, or even a swing to the LNP.

Bundaberg itself will probably swing to Labor, but the rest of the seat will stay reasonably solid for the LNP. Can’t see Pitt losing to be honest

The previous Bundaberg state LNP MP, Jack Dempsey, convincingly won the Bundaberg mayoralty at the recent council election.

The ALP and the unions in particular put a massive effort into the state seat of Bundaberg. Hervey Bay was basically ignored. Ted also ditched LNP branding which was smart.

So that needs to be considered. It is true that Bundaberg’s demographics are more suited to Labor, but Hervey Bay and Burnett were also held by Labor at a state level. HB until 2010, Burnett only one term when one nation split the vote. So don’t rule out Labor holding Hinkler one day, maybe not this election, though I think Hinkler will have one of the larger swings in the country 7 or 8%.

Lastly, note Pitt did not have a high first preference 44%. Last election palmer and katter locked up 25% of voters. Where those voters go this election is not easy to predict.

QLD Observer
Agreed . i had all the same thoughts, but it is just too intangible to analyse without a strong local knowledge.

My prediction: Likely LNP hold.

There doesn’t appear to have been much money allocated by Labor to try to win this seat (or neighbouring Wide Bay) but funds were short in the state election when Bundaberg and Maryborough obtained swings in the region of 20% to grab the seats and government.

Regional Queensland areas such as these have high unemployment etc and are heading nowhere fast .. People would notice the dramatic improvement in these areas since the Labor State members have been in government and could easily swing against the Federal NLP incumbents who have done nothing.

Issues like Medicare, Gonski and NBN are particularly appealing to the people who feel left behind.

Dubopov – I’d consider that convincing, if Queensland tended to conflate State and Federal parties. But if conditions have improved for them since Labor won government, it’ll mean they don’t feel as “left behind”, and they’re less likely to vote against the current federal government.

Which doesn’t mean this would be an impossible seat to pick up. Just highly unlikely.

Who knows – maybe the huge swing at the state level is an indication of a shift in attitudes in the area in general. Could be an interesting seat to watch, if that state election swing is mirrored at the federal level. Perhaps the biggest surprise swing of the election, if it does happen.

I live in Bundaberg. Can’t imagine much happening here. Wouldn’t even know there was an election on. I have only seen two placards for Keith Pitt and one for Larrisa Waters in the whole town although I did see a flash of red appear down near Coles this morning. Not a lot of effort going in and not a lot of public interest either.
I had to go to the internet to find out who was running this time.

That’s interesting. I have friends in Innes Park claiming lots of signs on their drive to and from work.

Glen .. One rider on the Labor state victories in Maryborough and Bundaberg – there was a large preference exhaustion due to Optional Preferential Voting