Higgins – Australia 2016

This will be a seat to watch on election night I think. Expect a big swing towards the Greens, and if they get ahead of Labor while both shave votes off the Libs, then it’s game on.

I’d expect the Greens to come second, I don’t think the Libs will lose this but give it a look in 2 or 3 election cycles.

Is the Carl Katter running Bob’s gay half-brother?

morgieb

Yes

I am not sure why the Greens are talking this up so much. Yes, they won the state seat of Prahran, but:

a) Higgins covers a much larger area than that, taking in some solid blue-rise conservative areas that aren’t very strong for the Greens.

b) Some of the Greens’ strongest booths from the state seat of Prahran (St Kilda, East St Kilda, Balaclava) are not even in Higgins, they are across the boundary in Melbourne Ports.

Plus, the Greens would need a big swing against both the Liberals and Labor at the same time, an unlikely scenario IMHO no matter which way the election goes.

I agree with MM, a bit delusional to think the Greens will be competitive here – the Libs have never even fallen below 50% of the primary vote, even in 2007 and 2010 at the lowest ebb for the Coalition in Victoria since the 40s.

Plus, they would need to scalp Kelly O’Dwyer who is fairly high-profile in her role as a minister and as the poster-child for the small-l faction of the party.

It may be competitive sometime down the road but that is a looooooooong way off and is dependent on the ideological direction of the Libs staying on its conservative course – I do not believe that this is necessarily true.

W of S
Whilst O’ Dwyer is from your team, she really is a pain in the butt. Another lawyer, turned political staffer, turned MP. I have yet to hear an original thought idea, or concept. Stopped listening a long time ago.
What i find most remarkable about her is the ease with which she can be distracted, & provoked. As i used to say to my son sans teenage years. “Rohan your like an expletive girl. You can’t have a thought without sharing it ”
Sexist i know. However when dealing with male adolescents challenge is often the most effective communication, & tactic.
Kelly clearly grew up without any brothers to teach her how not to react , & take herself so seriously !!!.

I think the reality is the Greens are targeting this seat as a way of addressing the criticism from Labor supporters that they ‘only target Labor seats’ and so forth. I think it’s risky for the Greens to allow Labor attacks to dictate their strategy in that way. Prahran made a lot more sense as a target since it was more within reach, this seems a bit far out of reach.

Melbourne Ports would seem a far more achievable target for the Greens, but of course is Labor-held.

L96, Morgieb
WRT Carl Katter. What a wasted opportunity. What a waste of talent. Surely the ALP could utilise such a candidate better???
. Surely they could move on so many of their useless, & loathsome one dimensional MPs.

@Nick C, I still think that is far-fetched. Wouldn’t the Greens need to outpoll Labor on the primary vote to jump ahead of the Libs since they have no hope of beating them on first preferences?

Matt
Unfortunately O’ Dwyer will be very safe indeed. Even if she were to lose, the libs would just give her another seat to stuff up !!

@Winediamond that may very well be true re: O’Dwyer’s credentials (I disagree though, sorry!) but I was simply laying out the unrealistic criteria that the Greens would have to meet to dislodge her.

W of S
I agree completely. The Greens thinking they can take this is like an ant climbing an elephants leg, with the intention of rape !!!.

Nick C,

Greens are targeting Mebourne Ports, along with Wills and Batman. Higgins is obviously within their targeted seats as well because of their success in Prahran at the state level (just to remind people, Prahran was all but written off for the Greens before the state election).

winediamond,

In the event O’Dwyer loses this seat and whether she is allowed by the party to contest another (presumably safe) seat is a matter for the Liberal Party and has absolutely nothing to do with this conversation.

The Greens strategy of targeting, what they deem, winnable seats has tightened in recent years. I’m not saying that the Greens will definitely win Higgins, just don’t be so quick to write off the possibility.

Matt
I didn’t write off the Greens in Prahran (ever) I found your other comment unnecessarily dismissive, & arrogant .

@Matt no actually I am writing off the Greens in Higgins.The key difference was Prahran was a marginal seat whereas Higgins is not. In 2014, the Libs only had a 45% primary vote there compared to one almost 10% higher in the federal electorate. Also, as MM pointed out, Prahran is only a small part of the electorate in which they only just squeaked by, they will find it difficult to compete in some of the more well-established conservative areas.

Furthermore, how can you honestly say that they have a shot when the Liberals have won over 50% of the primary vote at every single election, even in the very difficult years? Even if the Greens scream past Labor (far from guaranteed) I find it highly unlikely, almost impossible that they will hold the Libs to under 50% of first preferences.

For goodness sake, this talk of O’Dwyer losing her seat is 20 years premature and is really IMHO just extremely wishful thinking on the part of Greens supporters. I think their only real shots this time around are Batman and Wills, where a while off competitive Liberal/Green contests federally.

Kelly has a brother (younger I think). Although I am not sure what relevance Kelly’s family (or Mr Katter’s) has to this discussion. Nobody can change who their parents / brothers / sisters are.

And Kelly to win easily.

The Greens should finish second here and in Kooyong, but I doubt they will win them in the foreseeable future, give it 3 election cycles and this can be revisited.

Pollster
I should have qualified my comment. Only OLDER brothers can inflict the necessary torment , & cruelty !!!. As i said to my sister in law many years ago ” i always wanted a little sister just like you ” She melted, before i added “yes someone i could be cruel to ” !!!. She did laugh,later…!!.

This is often talked about as a seat trending to the left. Honestly, I can’t see it being anything but Liberal for at least a few more elections – those Malvern voters don’t easily change – but perhaps then.

At least Katter and Ball are keeping O’Dwyer on her toes.

Anything is possible

Thomas George very nearly got rolled by the greens in lismore

A Nationals seat since year dot

Kelly should be safe here though

Melbourne ports a better bet for the lefties in the cabbage party (greens)

Conservatives wont cop their own leader so they wont vote green

I expect a 9 percent swing across the board mostly as a protest against Turnbull knifing Abbott

Malvern makes this seat a prob liberal seat most times

Malvern makes this seat a prob liberal seat most times

A Lonergan Poll commissioned by the Greens has the Libs up 53-47 over the them.
The Libs are on 44.%, The Greens are on 24.1% and Labor on 18.5%.
The ACTU are running a phone call and rob call campaign in the seat against the retrospective nature of the Liberal superannuation changes.
Also the Greens are moving people away from other campaigns to focus on here due to the Liberal preference decision.

Reported in The Age,http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-shock-poll-result-for-kelly-odwyer-higgins-looms-as-indi-of-2016-20160613-gphv3z.html

Wow, that does throw up a slight Prahan repeat possibility. How sound is the poll though?

I do note that in the last election, Lonergan was the worst pollster in predicting the final result. In fact, I would be very surprised if the Libs PV was that low.

I agree. Prahran and South Yarra sure, but Malvern and Toorak?

I still reckon O’Dwyer will win comfortably, but at least she’s being kept on her toes.

Interesting news:
Private polling shows Greens are under polling in 2nd place and that Lib primary has dropped to 44%. Greens are now focusing much more attention here. As someone above said: game on.

http://m.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-shock-poll-result-for-kelly-odwyer-higgins-looms-as-indi-of-2016-20160613-gphv3z.html

Skeptical of internal polls but with a non-two party vote nudging 30% across 150 electorates there are going to be some big surprises on election night.

I’m nearly always skeptical of internal individual seat polling and this is no different.
Although that being said it’s quite reasonable to expect the Greens to come second, as well as the Liberal vote coming down, as expected. Another variable is that Labor to Green preferences are stronger than vice versa. Another advantage for the Greens is that areas like Malvern and Armadale are untapped, they have always seen to be off limits, I would expect the bulk of the swing to come from that area. However I can’t seem them doing too amazingly around Carnegie and Murrumbeena, it’s not as affluent as the rest of the seat and far more multicultural and I dare say shouldn’t be in the seat at all as it would be a far better fit with Hotham, although due to Higgins pretty much always being under quota, with a slower growth rate then most other seats it necessitates its inclusion in the seat, and at the next redistribution i wouldn’t be surprised if the remainder of Murrumbeena and Hughesdale are put into Higgins following Warrigal Rd further south and North Rd further east until they connect.

L96 – Carnegie is a funny one. The leafy south part (eg Leila Rd, Oakleigh St) has come up in the world and, apart from not having McKinnon Secondary there is comparable to the likes of Bentleigh. The proximity to the CBD make it, like Yarraville, appeal to professional CBD types. Whereas the north with more units is more multicultural, renter, student types. This group is highly represented when you walk down Koornang Rd but not all would be permanent residents and voters.

It’s an interesting poll result, but it still has the Greens 6% behind the Libs on the 2PP. It may well be close but I’d be very surprised if O’Dwyer wasn’t reelected.

It could be indicative of a change where at the next election progressives in affluent, inner city electorates show a greater preference for the Greens over Labor but without more polls, or an actual election result, it’s hard to determine whether there is a shift.

Morgan gives Lib 51.5, Greens 21, Labor 19.5, Others 8.

So Greens a chance to finish second, but mostly just taking votes off Labor. O’Dwyer only down <3% on primaries.

Actually, having browsed deeper into the Morgan tables, I’m going to stop quoting them. Turnbull losing Wentworth? Yeah, nah….

There are 20 seat polls there if people are interested, but I just noted that Kevin Bonham called them “very obviously silly”.

This poll seems a little more realistic then the Greens commissioned Lonergan poll, although the overall results seem whacky, Wentworth in particular.

Mark – you have to understand that, with 20 seats polled, and a 95% margin of error in each seat of roughly 6%, you would expect one of those seats to have a result outside of the margin of error for the Liberals. That doesn’t invalidate the poll, it just means that you need to understand how statistics and polling works.

A large drop in support for Turnbull in Wentworth is believable. An even bigger drop in polling values is more believable when you factor in human behaviour.

Turning attention to Higgins’s result, I’d like to think it’s overestimating O’Dwyer’s support, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s mostly accurate. Factoring in the Lonergan polling, I’m going to predict a 49.5% primary vote. Just enough to scare the Liberals, but nowhere near enough to put the seat at actual risk.

K O’Dwyer will lose votes as a result of usurping a democratically elected prime minister. Treachery cannot be rewarded, it is a pity there are not stronger candidates from the independents as she would have been in jeopardy after preferences. The greens are right to target the seat.

My prediction: Easy Liberal hold, while some booths around Prahran are good for the Greens, the Toorak, Malvern and Armadale blue-ribbon areas will ensure a comfortable victory for O’Dwyer.

Winediamond,
Kelly O’Dwyer grew up with a brother and a sister. I personally think that people shouldn’t judge politicians on how they look or what there personality is like, but what there actions are. And if you haven’t met the politician in person than its a bit arrogant to say they are a pain. Maybe you should get your facts right before you go digging yourself in a hole.

The Greens did indeed do very well here, but most of the time they were simply taking the anti-Liberal vote off Labor. O’Dwyer was elected on primaries with very little swing against her.

It’s probably just a matter of time before the Greens win Batman, Wills and perhaps Melbourne Ports. But I can’t see them ever winning Higgins, nor any seat like it. They simply don’t have any appeal to Liberal voters.

I’m not sure that’s accurate, on any of the counts.

Mark – Liberals saw a primary vote loss of nearly 3%, which isn’t an insignificant amount, especially when you consider that neighbouring Liberal seat Kooyong saw an increased primary vote for Frydenberg, as did Chisholm and Melbourne (both neighbouring), and the remaining neighbouring divisions (Goldstein, Hotham, and Melbourne Ports) all saw less than a 1% decrease in primary vote for the Liberals.

It’s easy to dismiss it as an “anti-Liberal vote” taken off Labor (it’s funny, because I almost never hear right-wingers talk about the “anti-Labor” vote the way they talk about the “anti-Liberal” vote… probably because so many think that Liberals are the “born to rule” party and thus it’s either Liberals or “anti-Liberal”). But I think that’s highly reductive, and fails to pick up on nuances.

David – by my estimates, most of the minor/micro party vote in Higgins would have ended up preferencing the Greens fairly strongly, so this won’t be far from being marginal. And surely you don’t believe that more than 50% of the voters are “rusted on”? Sure, the die-hard Liberals aren’t going to switch to Greens… but I’d expect a good 10% would be open to the right argument and the right candidate.

Thinking that there’s no risk, that Greens can never win Higgins, seems like hubris to me, and could be the undoing of the Liberals in the seat if they take that attitude.

@Glen your premise is predicated on the Greens continuing as a force in Australian politics. I am not sure that is necessarily correct – history has not been kind to third parties here.

@Wreathy – Whilst the Greens are not necessarily growing, and certainly face challenges in the future, I honestly doubt that they’re going anywhere. In Higgins if they can keep up engagement (which they should be able to do with a Greens State MP in Prahran), then they may be able to chip another 2 or 3% off O’Dwyer’s primary vote. Perhaps even more if the Libs revert to another mouth-breathing conservative such as ScoMo. If she falls below 45% and the preferences all start stacking up then she’ll be in trouble.

The Democrats are probably the proto-typical ‘disappearing’ third party that you’re thinking of, but they were (mostly) centrist and hence had no natural constituency.

The Greens at least have a chunk of the progressive left who now don’t even consider giving their first preference to the ALP. In fact I personally don’t really care about Labor winning anymore.

What still pleases me is the Coalition losing 😉

@SRoM many flaws in your argument.

1. The Greens chipped nothing off O’Dwyer’s PV. If you look at the shift in PV, Labor down 9.1%, the Greens up 8.9%. All the Greens did was cannablise Labor’s vote. As I suspected, O’Dwyer again won on the PV, if the Greens cannot threaten this then they have no shot.

2. Re: Prahran, setting aside the fact that I am skeptical of state visibility being transerfable federally, Prahran is only a very small part of the electorate.

3. If you think ScoMo is some sort of reactionary conservative you are simply wrong. As my local MP, I know a lot about him and his views and while obviously not left-wing, he is actually on the moderate branch of the party.

4. You’re right, but it’s not just the Democrats. It’s the DLP, the Australia Party and others. They’ve all collapsed. Eventually if the Greens are going to what to be taken seriously as a credible force, they;re going to need to moderate their positions. If they do, they risk losing a large chunk of their core constituency. They can either by small as a party of protest, or larger as a mainstream party but not both.

5. This is why you’ll never have a progressive government. Because most Greens place principle above practicality and so would rather have the ALP lose, obviously more progressive than the alternative, than give their votes to them.

In short, Greens votes really make it difficult for the ALP to claim legitimacy – it’s difficult to say that the ALP deserve government from a PV of 35%. Therefore, your pleasure of the Coalition losing government is going to become more and more difficult to experience when you deprive Labor of office.

Being from Sydney, Wreathy, has a different perspective on the rise of the Greens. It’s a POV I share. Could it be that their Melbourne experience was a distinctly local phenomenon? Greens spruikers with an “onward, ever upwards!” confidence might like to cast their eyes northward and check out the seats in Sydney (Labor and Liberal) equivalent to Higgins, Melbourne Ports, Melbourne, Batman and Willis. They won’t like what they find…

Some of these (Grayndler and Sydney in particular) were targeted in the same determined big-spending way, and yet the Greens tanked. Albo and Tanya have been a factor in their two seats, but the negative Greens trend is way wider than that.

Here’s what happened (from the ABC’s site) in Greens “heartland” within a 10km radius of the city: Grayndler -0.2% (my electorate, the one we told they would win. They went backwards and came third); Sydney -2.8%; North Sydney -2.8%; Kingsford Smith 0.0%; Reid 0.1%; Barton 0.1%; Wentworth by comparison got an absolute greenslide of 0.8%. But Turnbull’s -2.7% mostly went to Others, +2.4%

Just outside that 10km radius “heartland” where Sydney becomes way more multi-ethnic, the Greens vote just falls off a cliff. It either hasn’t not budged or declined for over a decade. Perhaps alarmingly, we’ve just seen the rise of the Christian Democrats and Family First there.

@H G McGuffin You read my mind as a Sydneysider!

It seems to me that the Greens’ relative success in Melbourne can be put down in part to doing a better job of candidate selection.

Would having an incumbent MP in the form of Melbourne’s Adam Bandt also help the Greens in inner Melbourne seats?

As for Higgins, can’t see it going from the Liberals any time soon.