Griffith – Australia 2016

On these boundaries, Griffith should stay Labor unless there is a massive (1966/1975-scale) Coalition win – Griffith became safer for Labor after the seat of Bonner (which is a key marginal) was created, the Liberals won in 1996 thanks to some of those suburbs.

Rudd’s rather childish and ungracious shout-out to Glasson during his concession speech suggests that he was worried/annoyed about the prospect of actually losing this seat in 2013.

Still, whatever else Rudd may or may not be, by all accounts he was a dedicated sitting member that worked the seat well. I doubt the Liberals can win here in 2016, but in the longer term the seat might be more marginal and winnable without Rudd there. I know that the West End area is very Green, but the rest of the seat seems to be fairly middle class and 50-50 voting.

Butler should hold this, and receive a reasonable swing towards her. I’d expect a bit of a correction as well since the by-election result wasn’t great for Labor.
I think the Greens should gain around here, considering they did reasonably at the state election and quite well in the council elections, by winning The Gabba’ ward.

There will be a massive , if not epic swing to the ALP, & Greens in Griffith ( think 10% +)
Bill Glasson was a quality candidate, whose efforts were wasted on this lot.
I’d have thought the libs could have found him a seat somewhere by now.
Butler OTH is typical of the narrow labor gene pool. She now has a job for life.
The Greens vote will increase incrementally, but never enough to threaten her.
IMV the safest seat in QLD for Labor, & it will remain so.

L96
I disagree hugely on the By -election result . It was sensational for labor.

WD
I feel that the Liberals put a concerted effort in both 2013 and the 2014 By-election, without that same level of campaigning that this will just go back to “normal territory” maybe 60-40.
I would have thought that Glasson had impressed enough to be given an opportunity in a safer seat, maybe Fisher or Fairfax.

L96
I agree completely with everything you have said here now
cheers WD

@L96 he tried for Senate preselection but was defeated. Shame really, as I rather like the fellow.

W of S
Good Morning !!. Agree completely .

The major parties both seem to think that Griffith is still in play as both leaders have made campaign stops here. But it’s hard to see this seat being competitive at the upcoming election.

This seat doesn’t look to be inherently safe Labor territory, but Terri Butler comes across as a very capable MP and I wouldn’t be surprised if she was ALP leader in 10 or so years time.

I’d expect her to hold this seat comfortably with a bigger than average swing in Queensland.

Terri Butler will lose this seat one day but it will be a Greens gain on the back of Liberal preferences. Just won’t be in 2016.

Another article suggesting Labor are “worried” in this seat. In what is generally a neutral/positive projection for Labor, this seat and Batman are thrown in as possible spanners in the works.

Also quite an interesting article for its own sake, on where both parties see the race

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-labor-to-fall-short-of-victory-as-parties-go-negative-on-medicare-and-boats-20160622-gpp6xs.html

Thanks for posting that article M Mulcair.

As has been said, I think Bill Glasson was the best chance of a Liberal MP for Griffith. I think against in Lilley and Blair are much more likely.

SWING against, I mean

@MM what gives? We have union-commissioned polls saying that Labor are home and dry, but internal leaks and public polling saying otherwise???

Someone has to be lying.

WoS, I guess the “neutral” polling makes the most sense and has been the most consistent. They all basically agree it’s roughly 50-50 with the Coalition hanging on in enough of their own marginals to win. That’s a logical narrative.

Leaked internal polling or commissioned polling is all over the place, so it’s harder to take seriously. This stuff can maybe provide an insight into how the parties see the race going, or trying to control the narrative. E.g. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that after the round of good Liberal seat polling from Newspoll and ReachTel, the unions have suddenly come out with a bunch of polls trashing them.

Or, maybe Labor wants to tempt the Liberals into diverting resources in Griffith, or Adelaide, or Jagajaga, and neglect their own marginals. So, it’s interesting from that point of view.

It’s also very interesting that we’ve had an abundance of commissioned polls from Labor and the unions, but almost none from the Liberals.

Guys Terri’s seat is not on the Lib radar and resources are being allocated accordingly.

@MM that is a good assessment!

Is Liberty Alliance the ALA? Why would you run one of them cowboys in a progressive seat? I mean they are welcome in a democracy I guess to run, but surely there’s many other seats that they’d do better in then this one? Wouldn’t exactly say an ALA candidate would be overly welcomed in Westend?

I highly doubt Butler will lose here. The by-election in 2014 wasn’t a great result for Labor and I don’t think they can go much lower.
The only comparable seat to this is Adelaide, and frankly linking the two is fraught. The NXT level of support there will muddy the waters like every seat in SA, simply its unknown where NXT preferences will flow.
Although in Griffith the Green vote should rise quite significantly, and you’d expect their preferences to flow strongly to Labor.
My guestimate would be 39 apiece for LNP and Labor, then 16 for the Greens.

My prediction: Labor hold.

Griffith looks like it will end up on a margin very similar to that of the 2014 by-election. That result was seen as a great fillip for the Libs at the time.

Labor’s low PV will become very dangerous here if the downward trend continues much further. Surprising, since I would have thought that Butler would be well-known in her electorate due to the by-election.

I think any hand wringing over Labor’s primary vote in Griffith is rather unnecessary. The Labor vote is still double the Greens. This isn’t Melbourne Ports.

DW
All true. Butler’s result was profoundly underwhelming, & something of a mystery as to why. A real surprise.

No idea how she is as a local member but she came across as very smug on her episode of Q&A especially compared to Richard Di Natale.

It will be a long time before the Greens can win Griffith (Brisbane and Ryan should be targeted first), but maybe they should try for South Brisbane at state level. The LNP vote is currently too high but since the seat is so safe for Labor it may be in the state LNP’s best interest to run a dud candidate and preference the Greens. The Greens also have a Brisbane City Councillor in the area to work with.

DW & MM
What do you think of Griffith’s likely movement in the redistribution ??.
IMV it will move a bit, because of Bonner, & Moreton being under quota.

If Bonner takes the Bulimba area, then Griffith takes Fairfield , Yeronga, Tarragindi ,ETC. This would pour considerable green vote into Griffith .

Not good for Butler, but not terminal either on it’s own. The wildcard will always be lib preferences. As i’ve said before the libs ought to be ruthless on this.

wine .. If the Libs ever preference greens supporters would desert them in droves .. the Libs have got a lot of mileage out of maligning the greens and used them in an actual scare campaign against Labor. Australians aren’t particularly fond of hypocrites.

I doubt Griffith will change all that much, if at all. On current figures, it’s only 3% above parity. Plus it only has to cater for the knock-on effects from Bonner, which is even closer to parity.

Sorry WD, I’m still trying to work out the state redistribution! But as DW says, I don’t think it’s likely there’ll be much change here. We’ll see what the projections say.

For those playing along at home, a redistribution of the federal divisions in Queensland is due to begin at the end of this year.