Grayndler – Australia 2016

The overall weakness of the ALP at state level no doubt goes some way to explaining why the Greens have been doing so much better at state elections here, but the Greens ran far stronger campaigns in this area during the last state election and if that campaigning strength is carried through, they certainly have the potential to give this a shake.

I tend to think Albo will hold on. I think 2010 was the opportunity to catch him napping, and now he’s seriously threatened Labor will put enough resources in to save him. Labor will however have to figure out their tactics and presumably will do much better running a positive campaign than trying to attack the Greens. They seem to have had a go at two different tactics to attack the Greens – one to paint them as too far to the left, and another to paint them as in bed with the Liberals – pretty confusing messaging if they keep trying to flip between both! I can’t see the latter working against Jim Casey, and the former would seem bizarre in what may be the most left-wing electorate in Australia, but at least the former might help sway Liberal preferences, so would seem the more sensible if they must use one of them.

Albo should hold on here. The Greens will more than likely run second, although I doubt the Libs will peference the Greens considering Casey would be the most left wing Green going around.

Hello new electorate. I got my first personalised letter and glossy leaflet from Anthony Albanese on 7 April. Apparently Albanese is already my federal member of parliament, even before a vote has been cast. Silly me – I thought boundary changes don’t take effect until the actual election, but then I’m a bit old-fashioned that way! I did see the ALP door-knockers in their red T-shirts out and about on 9 April. My early tip is for Albo to hold the seat comfortably. I think his personal profile and active campaigning will save the day. The Greens learned in 2013 (in Sydney and Grayndler) that what goes up can also come down – puncturing the narrative of an inevitably increasing Greens primary vote. Cedric Spencer copped some disparaging comments but still managed a positive swing and second place while Hall Greenland dropped three points. The redistribution has added to the gap between Liberals and Greens. I can see the Liberal primary vote dropping now (after a term in government) but I think it more likely to go to Labor than the Greens. Same goes for CDP and PUP. And – who knows? – maybe the Bullet Train voters will switch to the Liberals, excited by Turnbull’s fast train thought bubble!

The question is: what happens to the seat if Albo retires in the coming future?

When Albo retires – you’d be a fool to not bet on the Greens winning the seat in a landslide. I have a feeling Jim Casey’s going to come uncomfortably close to this seat this year which means that could very well prompt them to move Albo into a neighbouring seat for the 2019 election,

If Albanese wanted to move, this election was his chance. With Burke, Plibersek and Linda Burney holding the neighbouring seats, there won’t be anywhere else to move. He’ll be in Grayndler until he retires or is defeated.

Ben
You are absolutely right. Albo may well regret getting Barton, whilst the getting was good !!.

Thanks for this Ben.

Predictions? The Greens need about an extra five percent of votes and they need a bit of that swing to come both from Labor voters and a bit from Liberals just to get into second place and to potentially win on preferences. If the swing is between Labor and Liberal voters its quite possible for the Greens to stay in third place or go into second with Albanese on too high a primary to catch.

If Labor wins the election then they should hold here. A difficult seat for The Greens to win.

You mention Balmain as a potential for Green votes and I’d also flag Ashfield with more student renters and university workers pushed out from Newtown and Redfern.

Well, I’ve got my 27 April “Dear The Residents” letter from the AEC, officially informing me that I am now a resident of Grayndler. For the record, it does state that Tanya Plibersek will still be my local MP until the election. Bit surprising that we still only have two candidates…

Also interesting to look at that redistribution that was supposed to help The Greens and see it actually left them and the ALP worse off!

No wonder Albo stayed.

I’m not sure that’s true, Andrew – those areas on the Balmain peninsula have a massive gap between the state and federal Greens vote – which makes sense considering that the Sydney federal campaign in 2013 was a mess. If the Greens can run a competent campaign (which seems more likely) there’s more potential in those areas.

@Andrew & @BR
Also at a federal level Labor have Albo and Plibersek, who are high profile and progressive, to contrast that Labor didn’t have as high calibre candidates in the state election as compared to the federal seats of Grayndler and Sydney

I’m talking about a particular effect in one part of the seat, which won’t have the same sitting MP as it’s had in the past, as explaining why the Greens vote went down even though the seat moved into seemingly much stronger areas.

Ben
How much of said large gap was due to Hal Greenland, as the Green candidate ??. Il’l put my bet on now !!
Albo is gone with lib preferences to the Greens.

Well I was talking about the vote in the Balmain peninsula, which wasn’t in Grayndler at the last election.

I think there’s a whole bunch of factors which make a difference between state and federal elections in this area. Some of them probably won’t change (stronger Labor sitting MPs, for example) but others I expect will (stronger Greens candidates, generally more effective campaigns). And of course they are effected by the difference in state and federal politics, which is hard to quantify.

It’s always hard to tip Labor/Green results. Conventional wisdom says that Albo takes most of the progressive vote and has a strong personal following, including from normally Greens Party voters. Tend to agree with Ben. If the Libs preference the Green then it’ll be close, otherwise Albo will be fine.

The election Albo retires will be a dogfight of mammoth proportions.

This is going to be monumentum – with the Libs lacking any great leadership, it won’t be too difficult to anticipate that the Greens will come in 2nd. And should the Libs give preferences to the Greens: hold onto your hat for an exciting ride

Bernard Kelly
Dead right !!. FWIW i don’t think assessments of the redistribution are correct. Albo is far more vulnerable, as he has lost a lot of Grayndler’s west, which has a high, & very stable ALP vote.
Now if those complete idiots in lib central can follow Kroger’s libs (VIC) , things might start to happen.

WD, preferencing the Greens might (emphasis on “might”) work out okay in Victoria. The Liberal party is more moderate, and there are only a few strongly conservative rural seats that could see a potential backlash.

But it would be electoral poison to the Liberals to try this in Queensland or WA. Even NSW would likely be too conservative to try this on.

@Winediamond it’s a battle b/n pragmatism and ideology. The Libs (especially in more conservative areas) no longer want to be seen to put electoral reality above ideological position. IMO they should go for it – might deprive the ALP of some safe seats they need to form gov’t.

MM
Sorry i think you /have us ” Yankees” all wrong !!!. You ” Johnny Rebs ” down there are far more political than we are up here. I’ll go a lot further on this in my post to Wreathy.

W of S
We are in lockstep again !!!. I agree with everything you have said here . Additionally i’ll go further partly in response to Mark Mulcair’s post
IMV generally there is far less idealism in NSW ( than elsewhere in Australia ) , it has been replaced by realism, & pragmatism. Ideals, (& ideology) have a cost, & consequence.

Over the last 2 decades the swinging voters of NSW have clearly displayed a disinclination to pay those costs. This is IMV evidenced by the large number of swinging seats ,ever increasing number of said swinging voters, & the pervasive views , & attitudes, of these crucial swinging voters.

NSW voters have had their cynicism hardened for years by govts . IMV most voters are astute enough to comprehend that unfunded programs, promises to spend non- existent money are a fraud.
It is almost impossible to imagine how voters could be impressed With the ALP’s current platform of policies. Particularly
1/ Taxing, & spending our way to economic growth
2/ Letting the deficit , & debt issues, be resolved by such, & as a consequence of such a strategy !!
Such a lack of connection with our aspirational middle class, & battlers is breathtaking. To me it is a further demonstration of the ALP’s Victorian, & union centricity.

As such i conclude that if the ALP gain any swing at all in NSW, it will come from their own absent (2013) base, & indicate a further polarisation of the electorate.

The Liberals have selected someone called David Van Gogh (this has yet to be confirmed by State Executive). I don’t know him, but my information is that he is “about 30”, and “was educated in the electorate” (but where does he live?) and “works for a very large international company.”

Be interesting to see if the Libs campaign properly here, or do what they did in 2010 and remain largely invisible. How that all plays out could decide the outcome of this fascinating contest.

I’ve just been reading Ben’s comments here, and note his not very disguised fervent hope for a “competent” Greens campaign here and in Sydney. Presumably that means lots of resources and money, like the huge billboards and illuminated bus shelter signs which lit up the entire inner west during the 2015 NSW campaign… They sure were impressive! And they worked, the Greens picked up Newtown with a handsome win, and Jamie Parker cemented his hold on Balmain.

Elsewhere i note that Greens voters are “independent” minded and well educated. Well, yes… But considering they didn’t vote Greens in such numbers in the 2013, they don’t mind being “sold” to either.

And Richard DiNatale popped by this last weekend too…Anyone else see that pic of him and the body in the Australian? What a classic. Wonder if he bothered visiting neighbouring Reid to give Alice Mantel a hand? (only joking)

Internal reports here and in other Green – ALP contests saying that the Libs are likely to preference the Greens in exchange for open tickets in other key marginal seats.

I’m not fervent about any outcome, it’s simply a fact that the Greens have run much better campaigns in state elections in this area than in federal elections (and also much better campaigns in the equivalent Melbourne seats in federal elections than in Sydney).

Part of that is about money, but it’s also about the quality of the candidate and the people they have around them to run the campaign.

H. G. McGuffinn
I doubt Ben’s comments are disingenuous.
However i do fervently hope for a Green victory. I would vote green if i could there, to remove Albo. He has some admirable qualities, however he is labor’s past, not it’s future. As such he is a drag.
There is a saying ” to destroy is to create”. I subscribe to this WRT the Greens , in more ways than one !!!.
. So i conclude that the more voters see of the Greens to the less illusions they will have. It is a process that must be endured !!!

I’m going to revise my prediction and say that this will be a Greens gain. Looking at the numbers, Albo didn’t shave much off his TPP vote last time – meaning he is effectively at a high watermark, his vote isn’t going any higher this election. Same with the Liberals. There is, however, room for the Greens to rebound which will likely be the case this election, and they don’t have to rebound by much to jump ahead of the Liberal candidate, The Greens also seem to also be running a campaign that is a lot more organised then it was in previous times.

If the Greens primary vote increases at the expense of Labor, and given Albo’s sweating in recent times this may well end up being the case on Election Day, with a small swing against the Libs; and the Libs direct preferences to the Greens ahead of Labor – Albo will be toast.

Matt
As i posted to Bernard Kelly above , i hold much the same view. Labor don’t seem to get how vulnerable they are here. Not much really needs to happen if the Greens get those Lib preferences.

However the next really interesting question is what percentage of libs would follow the HTV card ???. Call it the sheep factor if you like !!!!

I’m not sure that voters are “sheep” WD, certainly not Grayndler ones, but a lot don’t understand how preferences work – that the really important thing is who is last and the order, not who is nominated as no. 2 on the card. I have even directly asked the party workers at the booths, and they either give a disingenuous reply or they don’t know themselves. In Grayndler any numbering on the Lib card will have a socialist alliance person, an independent or two, all of whom will be eliminated quickly, then the Greens before Labor…

If that what’s really afoot, and I only know what I read in the Australian! (joke).btw, fabulous of the Tele today… Crikey are featuring it for those of you who can’t bear to contribute even a dollar to Murdoch

Ben is correct that the Greens are more organised and are directing all their resources at “winnable” seats, all of which are Labor held. That’s where the irritation from their so-called coalition partners is coming from. I’m not being partisan (or “fervent”) here in bringing this up, but in targeting Labor’s frontbencher talent is such a determined and organised manner, you have to wonder what the Greens’ main game is.

No doubt will Libs enjoy the spectacle, and may even thank the Greens for their help with their HTVs. Little do they seem to realise that Greens voters are all concentrated in affluent and usually Anglo seats. There’s plenty of them in Coalition seats.

ps. I suspect Albo might hang on, there’s enough respect for him to ensure lots of leakage from any HTV. Like I said above, Grayndler voters are smart – most of my best friends live there.

But this is the second time the Greens have selected someone from the far left. Hall Greenland was a mistake for them last time, he was just too well known in Leichhardt, and the assessment of most residents of that council area will not have positive.That was reflected in his vote too (a “disaster”, I read somewhere above).

Ben – I agree choice of candidates is important, but I wonder why the Greens themselves don’t see that. The redistribution put Balmain and Annandale, two of the wealthiest suburbs in Australia in Grayndler. Despite all the pretensions and the largely delusional self image of inner wastes as being “battlers” against “the Man” (evil developers), not many really, in the privacy of the booth, will vote socialist.

H.G.McGuffin
The voters who are slavishly devoted to one party, & follow HTVs without question ARE sheep IMV. i proudly vote against pollies , not for them.
All my friends that live in Grayndler are committed lefties & vote as such, mostly for the Greens.

I’m going to stick with my April 18 prediction on this thread – I still think Albo will hold on, and there will only be slight shifts in the major party primary votes. I’m not as confident as I was, though. After preferences, in 2013 LIBs were 2,400 ahead of the Greens, and in 2010 they were 1,781 behind, so there’s not a lot in it. For the record, I looked up the 2010 LIB preference split, and it was 71-29 GNS over ALP, so I can see why GNS would be keen to overtake LIBs!

Speaking as a new-to-Grayndler voter from the Balmain end of the electorate, I agree with the earlier poster about the GNS candidate being especially far left. He won’t get a Jamie Parker vote (up here, north of the City West link!) because Jamie comes across as reasonably moderate and centrist and got support in 2015 as an incumbent with runs on the board. I read somewhere that this guy is/was a Trotskyite or some such thing. I’m afraid Balmain has moved on, politically, from the days of Nick Origlass and Issy Wyner!

Here’s a question. Is the Daily Tele editor, Christopher Dore (of the Save Albo front page) related to the Alexander Dore who was LIB candidate for Grayndler in 2010?

HG

The Green main game is the same as any other party, that is to gain seats in Parliament and in doing so further their influence. Any serious political party would be mad not to campaign hard in winnable seats regardless of whether the incumbent is a minister.

Assuming that the Libs direct their HTV to the Greens, I suspect Albanese will get over the line, in large part because he is a senior and well regarded member of Labor.

HG:

“not many really, in the privacy of the booth, will vote socialist.”

Heh. The best way of showing this is the 2010 result, down the bottom. The Judean People’s Front and the People’s Front of Judea* both ran, and came last and second-last with about 1% each. On preference flows, one lot went 67-33 to Labor, the other lot went 71-29 to the Greens. Splitters! (Weirdly, quite a few voted Libs above either Labor or the Greens. Who are these people?)

* (Yeah, I know they’ve got real names. I just call the whole lot of ’em Socialist Archipelago. There too many to easily count and they’re all tiny. 😛 )

Good question, GNav, I don’t think anyone knows who Alexander Dore is… He didn’t attend candidates forums in the 2010 election, and didn’t respond to local media enquiries.

Re. Malcolm, yes of course I understand the motive. But the question arises because for years the Greens and their supporters have been telling us precisely the opposite, that they are NOT “the same as any other party.”

There has been a very clear presumption that somehow they are “different”. And the impression I have gathered, mistakenly or not, from my Greens-voting friends, party people, neighbours, work-colleagues and even family, is that they are more compassionate, principled, caring, intelligent (yes definitely not “sheep,” WD) and more politically aware than anyone who votes “mainstream.”

And overwhelmingly they are affluent, from an Anglo background and are tertiary educated. If not so comfortably off themselves (because of their choice of a creative occupation), their parents are. Who will have helped them buy “the last affordable house in Petersham” (i.e. something just under $1.5m).

Dead right GNav, and its not just Balmain that has moved on from the 70s that NSW Greens elder Hall Greenland still celebrates. (See his book “Red Hot” – a hero-worshipping bio of the local comrades, Nick and Izzy). All of Grayndler has.

Albo to hold by 55/45 over the Greens I think.

For the first time in my life I will be voting Green in Grayndler. For all of their faults, including being the Australian quasi-socialist party, they are the least worst option for this electorate. Albo needs to be sent a message and shown the door.The libs will never get in. And one more green in the lower house cannot ruin the country. We can fix things at the election following this one. Sad, but true. Now, what to do in the Senate? That is the question.

Mac
If i lived in Grayndler i’d put Labor , & Libs last too. Albo is the past not the future.
More trouble for Albo on Friday.

Westconnex started barricading in St Peters. The Greens will win support, on the back of community resentment.

It’s heresy, I know, but not all of us in this electorate are against Westconnex. Some of us who have to drive to work every day look forward to any improvement in roads. Also, protesters lose impact each campaign when their over-the-top predictions fail to eventuate. I remember all the extreme protests against the Iron Cove bridge duplication, the marches, how the sky would fall in etc. etc. And then the bridge was built, traffic flow improved somewhat, and life moves on. Don’t underestimate how many people sitting in congestion on the City West Link or Parramatta Road support a government seen to be doing something about traffic and roads.

GNav
Christ mate !!!. They WILL burn you at the stake !!!!. Do they know where you live !!!??.

On a more serious note you are absolutely right. However those people sitting in traffic are for the most part not Grayndler voters.

When people object to roads (being built) it is usually around the hyperbole of how it won’t ease peak congestion. Therefore why not spend on public transport. However the reality is that this is not the real function of such roads, as most of the movements are commercial traffic. In the case of most freeways it is efficiently by- passing the CBD, NOT entering it.

The hard truth is that money needs to be spent on ALL infrastructure, & the dividends are rich in most cases.

ps your example of the Iron Cove Bridge was very good

Found some more candidates: David van Gogh (Liberal) http://nsw.liberal.org.au/fed_liberal/david-van-gogh-candidate-for-grayndler/
and
Jamie Elvy (Christian Democratic Party)

H G

“Not being the same as any other party” doesn’t mean that a party should try to challenge other parties and win seats in parliament, and of course they have a difference to the other parties given they’re smaller, less established and have a somewhat differing worldview.

Characterising Greens voters as simply the children of affluent voters who have gone and pursued their own interests, while mooching off their parents, is simplistic and dismissive of their experience (as well as being a massive generalisation of this voter bloc). The fact that so many people rely on their parents to assist them in buying a house or hope to land themselves a well paying job in order to buy a house is a serious problem not just for our society but the overall economy.

The science party candidate is…
Are you ready?
Wait for it…
…
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…
…

Meow-Ludo Meow-Meow

Yeah, I know they’ve got real names. I just call the whole lot of ’em Socialist Archipelago. There too many to easily count and they’re all tiny.

I lived in Grayndler in 2010, and I was amused to see the word socialist appear twice on the ballot paper.

But there was no mistaking the two for anyone who attended the candidates’ forum. The Socialist Alliance candidate was just your off-the-shelf inner city lefty. If the she was indistinguishable from other candidate, it was the Greens candidate.

The Socialist Workers Party candidate on the other hand, he was a stark raving mad Trot! I don’t mean that as a generic insult; I mean literally. He even pointed out that the election was being staged on the 70th anniversary of Trotsky’s death. He was a hilariously entertaining nutcase who livened up what was otherwise a pretty forgettable evening.

I think you mean Socialist Equality Party.

Yes. That was it.

“Whatever happened to the Socialist Workers Party?”

“He’s over there.”

Albo has come up with “the Canadian Solution ” this week. Latham was talking about it on the Bolt Report last night. Latham remembered Albo “screeching at me that there would be no problem if Australians weren’t such racists “.

Latham noted that this latest “solution” could be added to the East Timor, & Malaysian solutions !!!.