LIB 3.8%
Incumbent MP
Ann Sudmalis, since 2013.
Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.
Redistribution
Gilmore expanded south, taking in Batemans Bay and Moruya from Eden-Monaro, and lost Shell Cove, Shellharbour and Barrack Heights to Whitlam. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 2.7% to 3.8%.
History
Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.
The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.
Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.
Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.
In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor.
Candidates
- Steve Ryan (Christian Democratic Party)
- Ann Sudmalis (Liberal)
- Carmel McCallum (Greens)
- Fiona Phillips (Labor)
Assessment
Gilmore is a marginal seat, and certainly could be one to fall at this election, but there are reasons to doubt that Gilmore will swing as strongly as other marginal seats. The current margin is the result of the swing to Labor in 2013, while most of the country was swinging away from Labor. With the retirement of Joanna Gash in 2013, the Liberal Party was weakened – they should now benefit from Sudmalis’ personal vote. And despite this seat often being marginal (and sometimes being drawn as a notional Labor seat), the Liberal Party has managed to hold on consistently since 1996.
Polls
- 53% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 19 April 2016
- 51% to Liberal – Galaxy commissioned by Daily Telegraph, 11 May 2016
- 53% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 20 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ann Sudmalis | Liberal | 41,726 | 46.0 | -4.9 | 46.9 |
| Neil Ernest Reilly | Labor | 31,789 | 35.1 | -0.1 | 34.6 |
| Terry Barratt | Greens | 8,438 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 9.1 |
| Lyndal Gai Harris | Palmer United Party | 5,726 | 6.3 | +6.3 | 6.1 |
| Steve Ryan | Christian Democratic Party | 3,030 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 2.9 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 4,946 | 5.5 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Ann Sudmalis | Liberal | 47,758 | 52.7 | -2.7 | 53.8 |
| Neil Ernest Reilly | Labor | 42,951 | 47.4 | +2.7 | 46.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.
The Liberal Party won a majority in four out of five areas, ranging from 51% in Kiama and Jervis Bay to 55% in Nowra. The ALP won a slim 50.5% majority in Batemans Bay (which covers those booths redistributed from Eden-Monaro).
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 7.4% in Batemans Bay to 14% in Kiama.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Nowra | 8.9 | 54.7 | 17,920 | 19.0 |
| Batemans Bay | 7.4 | 49.5 | 10,150 | 10.7 |
| Jervis Bay | 8.0 | 51.0 | 10,293 | 10.9 |
| Kiama | 13.7 | 50.9 | 8,408 | 8.9 |
| Ulladulla | 10.8 | 52.1 | 7,643 | 8.1 |
| Other votes | 8.7 | 55.0 | 40,045 | 42.4 |
What has that got to do with anything in regards to the issue affecting Gilmore? That is a personal political perspective and nothing necessarily affecting the likely outcome of the race for Gilmore and the issues that are affecting the constituents in the Gilmore electorate.
Where do you come up with 1.5 million employees in local government? Says here there are 187,200. http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6248.0.55.002
FWW I think you can categorise any level of government as inefficient depending on how you characterise what role you think that level of government should have.
In regards to Kiama I’m sure this is a big issue and that it may play out as a protest vote at the federal election. Kiama has tended to have a Labor-Greens leaning council, but is facing being consumed by the generally conservative-dominated Shoalhaven. For those with a level of engagement in local politics, something which tends to be greater in regional areas and areas with older populations, the local political power shift alone would no doubt be a cause for concern.
Anyway Kiama LGA voters will be voting in a poll on the amalgamation issue on May 7.
Nick C
Well done. I apologise. Seems i confused the figures of local, & state govt. It is very interesting that there will be a poll. Who will act if the vote is no , to the amalgamation ??.
Katherine
How does my having a view on the efficiency of dozens of tiny councils being inefficient translate into a political position ??
Last post on this issue I swear! 95% of Kiama residents polled are against the forced council amalgamation in this electorate. There is clearly a low level movement to generate swing against LNP in the area part of the region.
Quote in the article below:
“Keep Kiama Council Local Committee chairman Rob McKinnon said Kiama is located in the vulnerable Liberal-held federal seat of Gilmore.
“The Federal Government should also take note of this result. People feel very strongly about this issue and unfortunately for Malcolm Turnbull he is next cab off the rank,” Mr McKinnon said.”
http://m.smh.com.au/nsw/kiama-says-no-to-council-amalgamations-20160507-gop177.html
Anne Sudmalis had significant support and flow on of personal vote from her friend Joanna Gash at the 2013 election in this election the Gash factor has diminished.
Seriously guys… Just reading through some of your comments…. Katherine you say this is about Gilmore …. not political debate and ideology …. But you want to debate about council amalgations ….
I came on here to read about the upcoming Federal Election and to find out if we have any option other than LIBS LABOR or GREENs…. Not to listen you go off on a red herring about an essentially state decision about councils…
If you think this forum isn’t for a debate about federal politics we are about to vote about … What the hell are you doing here?
Go talk to Shelley Hancock since its in her (state) parliament that will override what locals want in council.
Let’s get on with working out how to get some independent representation in Gilmore instead of candidates in big parties who make their decisions for their big donators instead of listening to the residents of this area.
Small businesses and farmers have been going to the wall, committing suicide, feeling like failures …
While the big parties allow and support big companies to make massive amounts of money, have predatory practices, tax avoidance and being exempt from rules like penalty rates for employees on “agreements” who feel blackmailed to sign if they want a job..
No wonder they’ve got millions to give to both big parties… Having a bet each way!!
I’m sure I can find a better “forum” elsewhere… Seems obvious Katherine you want to distract and squash any debate with others who have credible comments.
And who exactly is “moderating” my comments?
I have not distracted any debate from any particular person. This is a forum regarding the electorate of Gilmore. I have discussed a number of different issues, not just the forced council amalgamation issue that was clearly and has had an affect in the election for Gilmore. This issue affected all three levels of politics representation in this region. I take my own view on the issue, as do others. But I was arguing that the council amalgamation issue has had an affect in the electorate of Gilmore. Nothing more. Please do not argue for the sake of arguing because you disagree with a point of view.
Katherine, debating a federal issue in a specific seat and how it can affect the results is one thing.
Council Amalgamation is irrelevant to the election. It is a state issue, not a federal issue and anyone saying that someone should be voted in or out on that issue needs to pull their head in. It is a misrepresentation of facts.
If anything, the big issue for this area would be jobs, extending from the outskirts of Illawarra, through the Sholhaven and well into the South Coast. Sharing borders with Eden-Monaro, you would imagine that the dairy industry would actually be a relevant issue to the federal election.
There is many issues concerning the constituents of Gilmore, including issues relating to the dairy industry.
The State Government has decided not to continue with a council amalgamation in this electorate. There has been a lot of commentary both in this electorate, Sydney and other areas of NSW regarding how this issue is affecting federal electorates.
While I am not going to assume whether you are a constituent of this electorate or not. I am a constitute in this electorate and I can tell you that there is a difference between what is read on the Internet and what is being said and felt on the ground in Gilmore.
There’s nothing wrong with discussing council amalgamations – it has clearly been a big political issue recently in this seat.
Sportsbet has this fairly close.
Coalition 1.45, Labor 2.5
There is no money? You do realise Australia runs one of the smallest deficits of any country in the world. How do you think Sydney Harbour Bridge and Snowy Hydro was built? A govt. savings account?
This nonsense about deficits and the need to have a surplus has no economic merit. Google it.
@Fred well it depends who you ask. Keynesians would agree with you but Monetarists might have something to say about that.
What I abhor, is people declaring the opinions of an entire discipline verbatim like it is some holistic beast, when in reality, operations such as economics and science have nuance and a range of perspectives. Economics is most certainly NOT an exact science.
Forgive my tirade, a bit off topic I know, but it needed to be said.
http://www.fionaphillips.com.au/
Worth a look
Coalition have strengthened significantly, here. Labor now at 3.30, which is outside of the range I’ll keep tracking.
Observations are that Fiona Phillips is gaining traction. Sudmalis is not popular and has not performed well. Perhaps the suscribers to the “Sophomore Surge ” theory should consider that Fiona managed a10% swing last year againt the South Coast incumbent Shelley Hancock at the state election, perhaps that gives Fiona a Sophomore Surge of her own
Agreed. The campaigning in this electorate has been quite significant then it has in previous years. Labor candidate has more followers on Facebook then liberal candidate. Reachtel has been polling extensively in this electorate. Signs appear to have doubled since 2013. There has been accusations of young liberals taking down signs of Fiona Phillips (Kiama and Nowra areas).
Factors that may be different. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips ran in state 2015, gaining a 10.5% swing against the Libs. She also is from an area where the majority of the electorate live (The Shoalhaven LGA) – as opposed to the previous labor candidate who was only known in the Kiama LGA.
The amalgamation issue has been closed by the NSW Government however it wouldn’t surprise me if it is a sleeping issue determining some votes in the Kiama area. Milton-Ulladulla hospital is loosing it’s maternity unit because of funding/structural issues. Shoalhaven hospital has been having bed back logs. Gonski funding huge issue here. There is also demographic change occurring in Shoalhaven. A number of rusted on labor voters who worked in Port Kembla from the Whitlam/Cunningham electorates have been retiring from work and moving down to Shoalhaven area.
@Bemused your grossly misrepresent her success. Remember, the 2015 NSW Election was a huge correction from the 2011 aberration – so that 10% swing that she got (basically the state average btw) is not that impressive nor surprising.
the NSW swing in 2015 was only 5.5% against Liberals. Fiona had an above average swing in seat of South Coast in 2015. In the neighbouring seat of Kiama, there was hardly a swing against the Liberals. Clearly there is a difference.
@Katherine ummmm no it wasn’t. The statewide 2PP swing was 9.9% to be exact (which is what I said) – I do not know where you are getting your info???
Fiona Phillips was a first time candidate and performed very well to get an above average swing to recover a margin like that.Usually it takes two election cycles to recover from where ALP was in 2011
Katherine is correct, kiama did have a much lower swing!
@Bemused but it actually doesn’t! Look at QLD in 2015 which had a ~ 13% swing back to the ALP IN ONE GO. Or as I said, NSW which had a 10% swing IN ONE GO. This Phillips woman got a 10.6% swing to her in an election where the state average was 9.9%. So she got an extra 0.7% which is hardly impressive. You want to talk about great performers look to Jodi McKay, in the 2011 wipeout she only lost 0.6% of her PV – Now *that* is impressive!
We are talking Gilmore in this thread, an electorate with a changing demographic.In 2010 team Gash had a 5.3% margin in 2013 Neil Riley pegged that back to 2.7% This was against the trend in 2013 where onle a couple of seats had improved Labor voting (this margin is now 3.8%) due to a redistribution. There was a redistribution in the south coast state electorate in 2015 as well. Fiona Phillips fionaphillips.com.au is gaining traction through hard work and honesty, helped a little by a lacklustre sitting candidate.
In case you are critical that I left out the implied www here is the full address http://www.fionaphillips.com.au
this could give you a wider understanding of the “woman”
ReachTEL poll out today Lab 53 Lib 47. Interesting?
Sportsbet has this tightening. Was Coalition 1.30 to Labor 3.30… now:
Coalition 1.65, Labor 2.10
Oops – Labor 2.15, not 2.10
Is this poll just for the seat of Gilmore? Do you have a link? Thanks
http://www.2st.com.au/news/shoalhaven-news/92395-reachtel-poll-on-gonski-in-gilmore
Sportsbet has liberals 1.65 and Fiona Phillips Labor on 2.15 much closer!
I think that you will find that is because of old money Bemuse
I am hearing that Fiona Phillips is over the line by a good margin in this seat. Some insight from the locals would be much appreciated?
I’m a local and Ann Sudmalis would have to be one of the most unpopular members Gilmore has ever had. Number of issues occurring here and Sudmalis is not articulating and presenting well.
I’m not sure what to think of these teacher commissioned Reachtell polls today. It hasn’t caused much talk in the media.
Fiona Phillips has worked this electorate harder than any other Labor candidate for the last 20 years. She also ran in the state campaign so more people know her. I had $20 on her at $9 at the start of the campaign. I am saying it is 50/50. Health & Education are bigger issues here than many other electorates.
The latest Galaxy poll has Lib 51%, ALP 49%
That Galaxy poll was IN May was it not?
I see that telegraph poll was more recent!
@Bemused. Yes, obviously I would post a poll from May 1 week before the election…………how very bemusing doing such would be! Nonsensical in fact…..
Sportsbet has this firming significantly for the Coalition.
Coalition 1.35, Labor 3.00
Unless it moves closer again (I bet it does – I’ve been watching as the more marginal seats’ odds shift back and forth).
My prediction: One of the few seats in the nation to swing TO Labor in 2013, the Liberals should hold on, barring a Labor landslide.
Anton Kreitzer
Yep. I was never convinced Gilmore was in play.
The retirement of Gash handed labor a swing. However a sophomore surge to Sudamalis will blunt any further swing. The re distribution was VERY favourable to the libs.
The 2 candidates went head to head at Gerrigong on PM Live (sky) . Sudamalis was far more impressive than Phillips.
Interestingly at a meet the candidates forum at Ulladulla last Monday night it was Mrs Phillips who was dynamic and spoke well and enthusiastically but Ms Sudmalis was lacklustre and had trouble answering questions that were not on her notes.
On the NBN question Mrs Phillips was by far the most informed candidate
Placido
Did Phillips haul out the old diatribe about lib cuts to education, & health ??.
Big business tax cuts ???. ( anyone that thinks a business with 2 -10 million turnover is big, is a moron ). The antipathy toward small business is a huge factor with swinging voters.
How was Sudamalis failing ??
Correction
i should have said moron, or bare faced liar. This is the foundation of my view of labor’s attitude toward small business, & their total lack of understanding of where employment growth actually comes from.
Placid perhaps the Lib candidate was just foxing at that public forum. After all if she is so far ahead according to our learned Lib fan club on here, why would she need an academy award performance?
Those betting odds sound good to me. Put ya hard earned on Fiona and win a motza!
@JH no fan club, just the preponderance of evidence. While heresay is always interesting to note, it is far more accurate to look at the history and trends of the seat. Based on that, I doubt that Labor will be winning here.
They only ever held this seat for one term, when the statewide 2PP was 54% their way. They are not going to get anywhere near that this time and although their candidate does seem to be the strongest they’ve fronted in years, it will simply just not be enough to overcome IMV.
I’d tip a narrow Liberal retain with a 2- 3% swing to the ALP.
I do not recall being abusive and used moderate language which others here could perhaps contemplate. No diatribes were trotted out just well informed answers (on Mrs Phillips part) The very “favourable” distribution change took a 2.7% margin to a 3.8% margin hardly an insurmountable margin with a good campaign and willing volunteers.
I notice that you do not mention the NBN surely the best possible NBN infrastructure could only benefit businesses of all sizes.
May the best candidate win!