LIB 2.9%
Incumbent MP
Peter Hendy, since 2013.
Geography
South-Eastern NSW. Eden-Monaro covers parts of south-eastern New South Wales surrounding the ACT, along the south coast and in the Snowy Mountains. Major centres include Bega, Yass, Tumut, Queanbeyan and Cooma.
Redistribution
Eden-Monaro gained Tumut and Tumbaraumba council areas from Riverina, and gained Yass Valley council area and the remainder of Palerang from Hume. Eden-Monaro also lost northern parts of Eurobodalla council area to Gilmore, including Moruya and Batemans Bay. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 0.6% to 2.9%.
History
Eden-Monaro is an original federation seat, and because of its position in the corner of the state, it has always covered mostly the same area. The seat was a safe conservative seat for the first few decades, but it has been a marginal seat since the Second World War, and has been considered a ‘bellwether seat’ since 1972, having always been won by the party of government for the last four decades.
The seat was first won by Austin Chapman of the Protectionist Party in 1901. Chapman held the seat until 1926, during which time he served as a Minister in Alfred Deakin’s governments. He later returned to the ministry under Stanley Bruce from 1923 to 1924. Chapman died in 1926, and John Perkins won the seat in a by-election.
Perkins was defeated by John Cusack (ALP) in 1929, but won it back for the United Australia Party in 1931. Perkins served in a number of ministerial roles under Joe Lyons, and was defeated in 1943 by Allan Fraser of the ALP.
Fraser served in the seat for over twenty years, including a period as a senior Labor member in opposition. Fraser was defeated by Dugald Munro in the 1966 landslide but regained the seat in 1969. He retired from Eden-Monaro in 1972.
Bob Whan (ALP) held the seat from 1972 to 1975, which was the beginning of Eden-Monaro’s period as a bellwether seat. Whan was defeated in 1975 by Murray Sainsbury (LIB). Jim Snow (ALP) defeated Sainsbury in 1983, and he was defeated by Gary Nairn (LIB) in 1996.
Nairn became a Parliamentary Secretary in the final term of the Howard government and then served as Special Minister of State. Despite the seat being held by a government MP for so long, Nairn was the first member for Eden-Monaro to be a minister since John Perkins in the 1930s.
Nairn was defeated in 2007 by Mike Kelly (ALP), a former senior lawyer with the Australian Army.
Kelly was re-elected in 2010 but lost in 2013 to Liberal candidate Peter Hendy.
Candidates
- Daniel Grosmaire (Independent)
- Ursula Bennett (Christian Democratic Party)
- Don Friend (Veterans Party)
- Ray Buckley (Independent)
- Peter Hendy (Liberal)
- Tamara Ryan (Greens)
- Frankie Seymour (Animal Justice)
- Andrew Thaler (Independent)
- Mike Kelly (Labor)
Assessment
Eden-Monaro is a key marginal seat, although it leans more towards the Coalition with the addition of Yass and Tumut. Mike Kelly will be a strong challenger, and we should expect the seat to be fiercely competitive.
Polls
- 51% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 19 April 2016
- 55% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by AEU, 13 June 2016
- 55% to Labor – Reachtel commissioned by NSW Teachers Federation, 20 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Hendy | Liberal | 40,431 | 45.3 | +3.4 | 46.8 |
| Mike Kelly | Labor | 34,638 | 38.8 | -4.8 | 35.9 |
| Catherine Moore | Greens | 6,725 | 7.5 | -2.2 | 7.4 |
| Dean Lynch | Palmer United Party | 4,655 | 5.2 | +5.2 | 5.0 |
| Andrew Thaler | Independent | 1,223 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.1 |
| Warren Catton | Christian Democratic Party | 861 | 1.0 | +0.2 | 1.0 |
| Martin Tye | Stable Population Party | 601 | 0.7 | +0.7 | 0.5 |
| Costas Goumas | Citizens Electoral Council | 179 | 0.2 | +0.2 | 0.3 |
| Others | 1.9 | ||||
| Informal | 5,240 | 5.9 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Hendy | Liberal | 45,199 | 50.6 | +4.9 | 52.9 |
| Mike Kelly | Labor | 44,114 | 49.4 | -4.9 | 47.1 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Eden-Monaro have been split into five parts. Polling places in Queanbyean City have been grouped together, and the rest has been split between:
- Central – Bombala, Cooma-Monaro and Snowy River council areas
- East – Bega Valley and Eurobodalla council areas
- North – Palerang and Yass Valley council areas
- West – Tumbarumba and Tumut council areas
The Nationals won a large 64% majority in the west, which was previously entirely contained in the safe Nationals seat of Riverina (for this purpose these votes are treated as Liberal votes). The Liberals also won a solid 59% majority in the centre, and a 53% majority in the north. The west and centre, however, have small populations.
On the other hand, Labor won a 55% majority in Queanbeyan, the seat’s biggest town, and a 51% majority along the east coast.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 8.6 | 49.0 | 19,733 | 21.1 |
| Queanbeyan | 6.9 | 45.1 | 15,430 | 16.5 |
| North | 10.9 | 53.0 | 11,944 | 12.8 |
| West | 3.5 | 64.3 | 5,980 | 6.4 |
| Central | 6.2 | 58.8 | 6,053 | 6.5 |
| Other votes | 6.5 | 56.0 | 34,254 | 36.7 |
I have family in Eden-Monaro who also report Hendy to be invisible and doesn’t respond to emails. This may be a rare case of the challenger (Kelly) having a higher profile than the incumbant.
I’m running. As usual, it is nearly impossible for Independents to get noticed, and the sole focus remains on the 2pp.
What do I have to do.. walk the electorate naked in Winter or something?
Andrew Thaler, if you are serious about running, how about giving yourself some visibility? I just googled you to see what your position you hold on duplicating the Barton Hwy and can’t find any information about you.
Doesn’t look like you tried too hard to google me. If you try ‘Andrew Thaler’ with ‘Singleton Solar’ and ‘UTS’ you will find a heap of stuff about me.. admittedly not about the barton Highway specifically.. but hey, its not the only thing on my radar. Of course I would like to see the highway duplication completed.
Let me know if you want me to put up some links here FYI.. otherwise, here are a few..http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/singleton-solar-farm-big-solar-no-one-wanted-set-to-be-switched-back-on-11405
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-20/new-owners-set-to-refurbish-singleton-solar-farm/5537746
http://newsroom.uts.edu.au/news/2015/09/uts-takes-lead-customer-led-renewables
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/uts-takes-lead-in-first-australian-corporate-purchase-of-offsite-solar-31947
http://www.thefifthestate.com.au/education/uts-goes-straight-to-the-source-with-new-solar-contract/77235
http://www.singletonargus.com.au/story/3350855/singleton-solar-farm-leading-the-way/
Sportsbet has this on a knife edge.
Labor and Liberal both on 1.87
Labor’s pulling ahead…
Labor 1.75, Coalition 2.00
Still pretty close. I think however at this point in time, Labor may come out on top, thus breaking the bellwether!
Eden Monaro has some of the most engaged voters, and Hendy’s performance has been laughable. I don’t think he’s attended a single community forum. Any voter who researches the candidates will be voting Labor unless they’re dyed in the wool Libs. Not sure whether it will be a bellwhether or not, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see “safe seat” margins for Mike Kelly.
@John unlikely. The reason (according to AG) for the bellwether status of seats like this is because the party balance is very even. So it would be very unlikely for Kelly to get margins beyond the ~ 5% mark IMO.
Labor continues to strengthen, here.
Labor 1.60, Coalition 2.25
Hi – Does anyone have any information on Ray Buckley?
I am new to the area and can’t find any online. I’ve searched for 20 minutes which might not be much but with 9 candidates plus then senate to research I’d appreciate some help.
Thanks
Michelle
ReachTEL poll out a few minutes ago show’s a big swing to Labor. Result is Labor 55 Liberal 45. Game on for Bill methinks.
There was a Reachtel Poll out a couple of days ago with those numbers – is it the same one?
It seems to be a Commissioned poll by the NSW teachers’ union. It’s very similar to the previous ReachTel which was commissioned by the AEU, so I’m not sure if it;s a new one or just the same one repackaged.
The NSW Teachers Federation is the NSW branch of the AEU – I think we can assume it’s the same poll.
It looks like a different poll – the dates are a week apart.
I don’t think the ReachTel poll info has influenced it, yet, but Sportsbet has Labor firming here.
Labor 1.27, Coalition 3.50
Now outside of the range, so I won’t keep tracking unless it gets closer again.
They are different dates for the polls. It look’s like Mike Kelly is on his way back to Canberra. What do you think, Minister for Defence in a Shorten Government?
@JH Kelly will probably win but Labor won’t be in government.
My prediction: Voting with the nation since 1972, Eden-Monaro almost broke its track record last election. Mike Kelly, Labor MP 2007-13, is running again, while incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy’s margin was boosted over 2% in the redistribution.
Being bold here, I think Eden-Monaro will break its bellwether record, and go back to Labor.
When the Libs lose this seat, it can be attributed to Hendy. Gary Nairn would not have lost on these boundaries.
The Canberra press have done a great job promoting Kelly.
With such a favourable re distribution this ought not to have even been a contest. Clearly Hendy was incapable of obtaining a sophomore swing.
There is now only one factor that might turn this around – self interest. BTW this applies to all the seats that look like going to labor. Obviously this is dependent on the govt being secure of re election.
There is a world of difference in being a marginal govt held electorate, to being an opposition held one.
@Winediamond, I agree. The new boundaries were a godsend to Hendy and yet he will still manage to lose it -.-
Prediction, the longrunning bellwether tradition will end, Kelly and his porno moustache will return to Parlaiment
Hahaha they need memes of that ‘stache XD
Most recent poll had Hendy ahead of Kelly, but both below 40% with Kelly easily winning on preferences (55/45). 12.9% voting Green!
It may be “protest poll” bias but Kelly should be home safe.
No reports of Cabinet ministers in Eden-Monaro in the past week – a fair swag early on that suggested they were worried – inference is that they have done all they can and it is going to slip from the Government’s grasp.
Looking good for Mike Kelly and Labor in this seat. Have my fingers crossed. Even if the Libs do get back into government (which they dont deserve) then this may be a marker of “things to come” – next time. Malcolm has been mesmerising people – but still has all those Abbott policies and die-hard Abbott fans yapping at his heels. I cant see him showing any leadership and going against them.
Mish Wolf, here is a link for some info on Ray Buckley
http://bothkindsofpolitics.org/?p=2686
Mr Hendyseems to be doing his best to lose this seat – another unfavourable story about his failure to show up at a community forum in Queanbeyan =- organised by several Residents groups and the Queanbeyan Business council. Mr handy was quoted as saying that he had other ways of meeting voters and didn’t need to turn up at forums organised by his political opponents. Thing about that
If you are looking for information on the Eden-Monaro House of Reps or NSW senate:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/emon/
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/snsw/
I am in total agreement with the fact that Labor will be elected due to poor representation by Hendy. Not only did we get the E4 debacle but now the new group of wasters are attempting to spend $100M’s on a roadway in Queanbeyan when the state of our highways in this electorate are falling apart.
I certainly hope this blasé spending approach does not go ahead, as we only have a small bucket of money to run the entire region and this is not an appropriate or well thought out spend of taxpayers money.
Sure the highway needs attention however.the Qbn road is much needed also. Don’t agree with robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Thanks for that Lisette.
There are numerous highways around this area that are falling apart due to poor maintenance regimes, and subsequently paying for a road which will only be used by a handful of people is not an appropriate spend of money, in anyone’s books.
You only have to look at the way the ACT has handled the portion of Sutton Road to see where money is continually poured….. into the major burbs…. and leaving those of us having to have our cars smashed to pieces for 25 plus years waiting for some decent upgrades.
So No! It is a total waste of tax payers money blowing it on another inappropriate city project.
We have to pay rates like anyone else, and just for a change I would like to see some money spent on the regional roads and not just in the city area.
Cheers
Phil
The famous bellwether is now broken…
It would have been even more interesting had it been something unexpected (like Lindsay) rather than something most of us predicted!
Yes its bellwether status has gone, BUT the result in this election was so close, and basically its only the postal voters (which favour the Coalition) who are providing the Libs with their “win”. (Libs blanketing mailouts of all their electorates with postal vote opportunites helps – maybe something Labor could look at for next time) Dr Mike Kelly is yet another excellent Labor candidate who will work hard in his electorate, and improve the margin for the Labor party next time. Replacing yet another Lazy Lib.
W OF S
What do you think of Mike’s chances next time against a full field of good candidates ???
. There will be a Lib, One Nation, Nat ( possibly the state MP for Monaro ) all running, & referencing against him.
Oh & next time the election will be fought without nuclear weapons like mediscare !!!.
@Winediamond I think the Libs threw this seat away with a poor candidate. His weak credentials should have been obvious in 2013 when he only won very narrowly.
Projecting three years into the future is a gutsy move in politics, but I think that unlike Labor in 2010, the Libs have won this election outright and so have achieved credibility. This *may* perhaps mean the next election will be something more like 2001 or 2004 for the Coalition. (Notice I emphasise the word *may*)
Assuming they preselect someone decent (the state MP would be amazing) then they have a real shot, although now that Kelly is back he is going to be like a barnacle – difficult to dislodge. Labor won’t be able to try something like Mediscare again next time, however.
As long as the Libs keep trying to tinker with Medicare, as they have done for the last 3 years, relentlessly, and brazenly, Labor will always be able to use the rally cry Medicare. I believe the word Medicare actually represents for Labor voters, ALL the attacks the Libs have made on ordinary working Australians. Compared to the 8 or 9 “scare campaigns” that the Libs used this time around, starting at the top with Malcolm and his “Same old Labor, Labor and the Greens, chaos and disunity” , Labor’s rallying cry of Medicare was not a scare campaign at all, but based squarely on the facts of the Libs records.
@Jack you can give the campaign a rest, the election is over and Labor lost. Deal with it.
If the Liberals under John Howard, a central figure of the government which dismantled the original Medicare scheme under Gough Whitlam, did not in their decade in power touch Medicare, where do you get off thinking that Turnbull, a mile further to the left than Howard, is entertaining any notions of doing so???? It would be electoral suicide.
It is total fantasy.
You can call it what you like, but the Liberal party is very quick to cut services, utilities, health and welfare and provide those savings to their rich elite mates.
There is fare too much in the way of giving money away to mates on both sides of politics.
I certainly hope you and the rest of those who voted for the liberal party get the outcome you hoped for. I doubt the majority of Australians at the end of this Liberal term will be happy with what transpires over the next three years.
At least there will be a workable house of review to represent the other views in the community.
Cheers
Phil
Jack, postal votes only change the method by which people vote, not the party that they vote for.
If Labor had run a more active postal campaign, the result would still end up the same. They’d just have gotten fewer ordinary votes, so their position on election night would have been weaker.
Call it what you like, but it was actually Labor that unleashed the first wave of privitisation in Australia. Qantas, Telsta, the Commonwealth Bank; all privitised by the ALP under Hawke and Keating.
@MM good point.
W of S
In point of fact the Libs under Howard (with Abbott as health minister) introduced the safety net. A huge expenditure. Funny how everyone forgets ……!!!!!.
Abbott got more money spent on health than any labor minister EVER could or would !!!!! Howard handed him an open cheque book, & instructed him to create silence, which he did.
Jack
SEE my post to Wreathy. It would be good if you took note of historical fact.
We’ve had a few broken bellwethers of late. Macarthur and Herbert in 2007. Leichhardt in 2010. Eden-Monaro and Lindsay in 2016.
@DW don’t forget Makin in 2013 as well.
Wreathy of Sydney: I don’t think the characterisation of Malcolm Turnbull as “a mile further to the left than Howard” is particularly apt. He might be a mile more in favour of progressive social policies but he is certainly more economically dry than Howard – can you imagine Turnbull instituting the “Family Tax Benefit” for example? And I think that’s the more relevant concern when it comes to socialised medicine.
@kme I think you will find that you are quite wrong. Howard was *the* arch free-marketeer. From my experience, people seem to think that just because Turnbull has a history in business, he is somehow the most free market, economic dry out there. As someone who is a member of the Liberal Party, I can tell you that this simply isn’t correct.
Further, the small-l faction Turnbull belongs to, otherwise known as the moderates, are NOT merely groupings re: social policy – they are wholly moderate in economics too.
Howard – at least as PM – was the arch-pragmatist. He had no trouble pulling out the chequebook if it was the politically expedient thing to do. Perhaps he was different as Treasurer?
kme
Quite right.
As Treasurer Howard did as he was told (by Fraser). Hence little happened (of worth) with things like the Campbell Report. IT was left to Hawke/ Keating to implement most of this .