Eden-Monaro – Australia 2016

Ben
i disagree emphatically with your assessment , that Mike Kelly is a strong candidate. He is loathed in the rural areas. All show no go is the view. A new contender for the ALP would help them.
What is going to be interesting demographically in the near future is the retiring public servants, & the psephology involved. Along with Canberra workers choosing to reside in NSW.
Mark Mulcair do you have a view ?? What is the voting trend of these groups ??

I think the margin is what will save the Libs here. Before the redistribution I would have said that they would have very likely lost it but now I think it is definitely possible for the Libs to hold – in an election where a government is expected to hold on, 2.9% is fairly solid.

I would’ve thought that, as was happening here in Page, there would’ve been extensive polling on Kelly’s popularity before he was chosen to recontest, so it’d be surprising if he really was that unpopular in large sections of the electorate.

Nick C
That is quite an assumption of competence !!!. I did qualify that it is the RURAL areas that are so unimpressed. Kelly is nothing more than an ex army bureaucrat, & is clearly seen as such, notwithstanding his foray into celluloid !!!!. Remember country people can be very conservative !!!.

It will be interesting to see how the areas redistricted in from Riverina swing relative to the rest of the seat, since those areas would have had pretty minimal campaigning activity in previous elections.

winediamond’s anecdata notwithstanding, I think selecting Mike Kelly to recontest was a shrewd choice. He would still have a reasonable profile in the electorate (it’s not mentioned in the article but he did hold a position in the outer ministry) which should blunt the new member’s sophomore surge, and his loss in 2013 was very narrow.

The Tumut and Tumbarumba area was briefly in Eden-Monaro for the 2007 election before being moved back to Riverina in the 2009 redistribution iirc.

Nick C
Precisely. Now observe the blistering swing to the nats in 2010, & 2013. This is a fundamentally labor area. However Mike McCormack is a very good MP, as opposed to pornstar Mike !!!.

Regional NSW will swing higher then in the city. Peter Hendy is a plain boring candidate who is out of touch and quite self centred whereas Mike has served his country and been attacked disgustingly by liberals such as Peter Phelps in the past. He has one of the highest votes and the rural areas wont be deciding the outcome here

Dan
You are right about Hendy being boring. We shall see how out of touch he is.
You are dead wrong about Kelly. He is just a bureaucrat, fat, & out of touch on the public teat. A staff officer playing leapfrog as in the immortal WW 1 song.
The rural areas will of course decide the outcome, as Queanbeyean is solid for labor.

@Dan If Kelly was so respected then why did the electorate toss him out last time? XD

If Mike Kelly hadn’t recontested last election this would have a margin of atleast 6%, his personal vote is high and in an election where there is a swing to labor add on that vote this seat is one of the few likely to fall in NSW. As a liberal Wreathy, you’d know what a popular member you lot considered Jo Gash to be in Gilmore, yet her margin was relatively low while she held it, that doesn’t mean she wasn’t a popular MP

And Winediamond that is a step too far, Mike Kelly is a many who has dedicated a good part of his life to armed forces and one who atleast didn’t score cheap political points like a certain other veteran did last year. Mike is highly respected and definitely has moralise experience then a hack who jumped from ministerial office to another and ended up spending more time caught up in factional politics then any MP in a marginal seat would

I am Labor through and through, but I do tend to think Gash was well liked in Gilmore. How else can you explain the swing away from the Liberals there in 2013. As for Eden-Monaro, I would love to see Kelly and his 80s pornstar moustache back in Parliament.

@Dan that is just conjecture, you can’t know that. I have seen no evidence to suggest that he has a significant personal vote above and beyond that of an ordinary incumbent.

As for Gilmore, what is this nonsense about low margins??? She had margins as high as ~ 14% and managed to win the seat back after a redistribution made it notionally Labor. And as Goosh Goosh said, the seat swung away from the Liberals in a good election year after her departure which tells us that she had a significant following.

Dan
You clearly have little understanding of how the defence bureaucracy, are expert in avoiding ministerial, & budgetary scrutiny. This makes it almost impossible to control defence spending.
The most effective defence minister ever, was Malcolm Fraser, & he was HATED. He was miserly , demanding, detailed,& thorough.. This is why Defence is a ministerial graveyard.

I’ve been to our WW 1 battlefields in France & am a proud Australian , indebted to our Army for it’s sacrifices & superb ethos. Especially as recently as in East Timor, & the Middle East.
However there are defence service bureaucrats, especially in the army that would make public service mandarins look like amateurs, in milking the public teat.
By any measurement they are NOT serving their country. Let alone being true to the Anzac spirit.
Defence force politics is far more nuanced than you have assumed

Yass and near Goulburn can vote Labor……. Tumut and Tumburumba have had massive swings from 2007 to 2013……… this change accounts for most of the margin on the new boundaries…….. this seat is a 50/50 proposition on 2013 results

MQ
agree with all of what you’ve said. However i don’t think Goulburn is a labor town anymore. It has changed, not as much as Bathurst, but a lot.
As i’ve said Kelly tips the balance, & not in a good way.

WSydney subtracts the primary in Eden with the senate primary in Eden and tell then compare it to that of other seats so there is evidence. The point I’m making about Gilmore was that the most popular MPs are often on the most slimmest of margins so it’s complete rubbish to say that because he lost in 2013 he’s not popular.

Idk what your obsession is with mike he actually has more life experience then most of the liberal partyroom, luckily for him EM is no where near as scathing as you are

Dan
RE -READ my last post to you.
I am a patriot. As such i take a great antipathy toward someone, anyone, who fails to act in the national interest. When an individual, or group act AGAINST the national interest i’m enraged.
My contempt , & condemnation is always reasonable, & earned.
Clear enough ???

Dan,

I’m not sure you are correct about Mike Kelly’s personal vote – in fact you are quite wrong.

Not only was the swing against Kelly (-4.85) larger than the cross-NSW swing (-3.19), he had the third biggest swing against him for a losing ALP candidate (behind McMahon in Barton and Saffin in Page).

I think the myth of Mike Kelly’s popularity and personal vote stems from his 2010 result, where he did buck the trend and receive a +1.95 swing against a -4.85 swing in NSW.

But it’s important to remember that the Liberals preselected David Gazard about two weeks before the campaign began (literally!). Objective people from both sides concede that had Gazard had the luxury of a normal length preparation, he would have picked up Eden-Monaro easily.

I’m sure I’m correct as many experts also agree and the personal vote is evident.

First of all country seats have always swung hardest in 2013 so it’s no surprise that he went over as you have illustrated to me by naming Page as the other seat and the other being Barton where a long term sitting MP retired. Also the current margin it’s on is one of the smallest that’s been held for the seat, also noted he lost by less then the informal vote. I know of no labor people that say that or anyone who says that as most regional labor seats swung to labor in 2010 so you are quite wrong on that.

Winediamond it is quite clear that were it a liberal candidate you would be praising them but I have little interest in hearing you condem a quality candidate

Dan every time you have posted in this thread you have had a different picture. How can we seriously believe anything you say when you are just posting wild aspersions about Labor. You seriously need to become more objective mate

Dan
Wrong .
ACTUALLY my only mate in E-M who’s actually met Hendy thinks he is a complete idiot. & i unreservedly trust the opinion of my mate.
Not many Liberals earn my praise.
So have a really good go at opening your’e other eye, & don’t jump to conclusions. I won’t be as polite again.

@Dan I think it is you whose partisanship is flashing like neon lights my friend. There is no point in quoting ‘many experts’ when you can’t even bother to name them.

I think you misunderstand me. I am not saying that Kelly DIDN’T have a personal vote, my point was that it was nothing special and that there is no evidence that it is above and beyond that of any old incumbent, whether they be bad or good MPs.

This also explains the deceptively small margin, incumbents of any stripe (especially in regional electorates) are usually enough to buck swings, irrespective of the quality of their candidacy. Now that he is no longer the incumbent…put 2 and 2 together.

I didn’t say you rated hendy I said were someone like mike the liberal candidate you wouldn’t dedicate your night attacking them, please read my comment.

And wreathy this blog in 2010 said EM would hold while it was under the Rudd government, gizzard was preselected in the beginning of May so not exactly your two weeks you claimed. Mumble on the Australian indicates that the personal vote is strong and is therefore signing facts, 10% roughly in a marginal seat like this is worth a bit. It corrected in 2013 because of its unexpectedly good showing in 2010 so you haven’t really explained much with your speculation

@Dan that is not evidence, that is the opinion of one website. And if Kelly could only have held on only if the Rudd government was returned, what personal vote does he bring above and beyond that of the seat’s bellwether status??? Nothing!

Also I made no claim re: Gazzard’s preselection, those were the thoughts of Frank N Fearless, so you should direct those comments to him. Although I assume the point he was trying to make is that a hastily selected incumbent chosen ~ 2 months before the election (in August) was no match for the sitting MP by virtue of incumbency.

Your last sentences are confusing, are you saying Kelly had a 10% personal vote? If so then I find that very hard to believe. BTW just because ‘Mumble’ or any other website says something, does not make it a fact 😉

Ok wreaths you are clearly just another partisan person. Political experts will tell you that the best way to test claims that an MP is popular is to subtract the lower house vote with the senate vote and the total you get is what the personal popularity of the MP brought with them in their vote. What he brought was ensuring it wasn’t a blow out margin and very winnable next time. You also just discredited yourself as EM is a bellwether it would inevitably go to government, especially in a year where labor did dreadfully.

Three months actually and I suppose you will now say that whoever the labor candidate for Reid is will only have lost because they only had a few months and not attribute it to Craig laundy.

The senate vote in EM was 28 the lower house vote in EM was 38. So according to Peter Brent, someone who has a PhD in political science (not just some website blog) his personal vote would be around 10%. I’ll take the word of an expert thanks 🙂

@Dan first off do not call me ‘wreaths’. If I have the courtesy to address you by your proper name, I would appreciate it if you reciprocated.

See my Macarthur post re: partisanship.

The point about the seat being a bellwether is that personal vote is irrelevant because if he was so popular, would he not be able to overcome the seat’s natural tendencies? If it just goes to whoever forms government then personal vote is in fact irrelevant as we saw in 2013.

Re: preselection, not my opinion I was just trying to make sense of Frank N Fearless’ arguments using my interpretation of his logic. If you disagree then take it up with him.

As for ‘experts’ they are not always absolute in their assessment. I vividly recall Malcolm Mackerras saying that GWB would be defeated in a landslide in 2004. We all know how that turned out. Furthermore I think we need to make a distinction between incumbency and personal vote. I think that any HRP MP would have an incumbency advantage from being a local member, something that a senator would not have. Also, the Senate vote for the major parties was already lower than their HR vote so…

In any event, we shall see when voters head to the poll. Just for the record, as I did say a few posts up, I still think this seat is a tossup, just not because of Kelly’s supposed ‘popularity’.

Good talking.

Any personal vote in a seat with a margin like this matters, to say otherwise is ridiculous ok you clearly don’t understand the concept of a personal vote so I’ll leave it at that

Dan, I think your petticoat is showing … 😉

“Bellwether status” is really nothing more than trivia, I certainly wouldn’t credit it any predictive power. It’s certainly a live possibility that Labor could win this electorate but lose the election.

ReachTELL poll of today has Hendy ahead 51-49% in Eden-Monaro. That is VERY significant.

@ Dan, do you have anything to say in response to Frank/the poll? Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story, eh.

Well it just shows the popularity of Mike in stopping a sophomore surge and making this a very likely labor gain. Only a popular person could break its bellwether status and it looks like it may be Mike, then again Mike can win it and still keep its status of going to government

Popular as Dr. Mike may be – and I’m not denying that he may indeed be – surely he is not popular enough to break the bellwether with Shorten.
Furthermore, Turnbull will be supporting Hendy as Hendy is one of Turnbull’s numbers. The combination of these two factors makes EM unlikely to change hands.

It is also important to mention that in the swathe of seats sampled in that poll, Eden-Monaro was one that was very favourable to the Coalition. In other seats with larger margins and some might say, ‘better-performing’ MPs, the Libs were behind. It shows that perhaps the Coalition are better poised and entrenched here than some of you think.

I think you raise some good points there Wreathy, and precisely why I thought it was so significant (I was gobsmacked by some of the other NSW results!).

Could it be that many are simply underestimating Hendy’s ground game? You have to admit he’s been pretty busy (and effective) in Eden-Monaro.

@Frank N Fearless I wouldn’t have thought so. Hendy is an economist, he was one of the principal authors of Fightback! and one of John Hewson’s senior economic advisors. I would have thought this background a poor fit for this rural/public service-oriented electorate, yet it seems he has attached himself like a barnacle to the seat. This can only happen with a good ground game so good on him.

FNF, & W of S
All interesting.
Some economists impress me. Seemingly able to weave coherence, & relevance from many sources, & types of information.
However most are just self-aggrandised, & overqualified accountants. Their skill set confined to the counting, *& analysis of numbers, lacking in real world experience, & true appreciation of people or business.
Hendy has yet to convince me he is not the latter.

Dan
You are way ahead of yourself – again !!!.
In point of fact Kelly has done absolutely nothing– YET !!!. Let alone stopped a sophomore surge. No doubt though he is an absolute “legend in his own mind” to quote the immortal Clint !!!.

Still there seems to be some sort of theme, if not recurrence, of premature extrapolation !!!!.

Wee Willy has been out, & about demanding the govt go into “caretaker mode”. This is BEFORE a Federal budget no less.
If only he knew how ridiculous that sort of behaviour looks, he might develop some self consciousness, maybe even leading to self awareness ??.
No. Many, many lifetimes to go i am afraid, very bad karma.
It is said that the pity is the highest form of contempt. BS has certainly earned my pity.

There has been vigourous debate on if Kelly has much personal vote, so I decided to do some research.

Labor senate vote in Eden-Monaro: 29.05%
Labor vote for Kelly in the lower house: 38.78%

Seems fairly conclusive.

GG
How can that possibly add up ??. Who got the difference ?? The libs FFS??

To add to Goosh Goosh’s figures, the NSW-wide primary votes for the ALP were 31.6% in the Senate, 34.5% in the House – so that’s a considerably wider gap in Eden-Monaro. Some of it would have gone to the Greens, and the rest to minors.

The Liberal party also polled considerably lower in the House than the Senate, but much of that can be attributed to the Liberal-Democrats lucky column draw in the Senate which nabbed them 10.4% of the vote in E-M.

kme
NOW the numbers are starting to add up !!!…..

Doug
The Palerang council is so useless that there recent meetings have been packed, & almost turned into lynchings. I have lots of friends in this area.
Council environmental obstructionism , & other issues, have driven the cockies nuts.
Huge problems with feral animals for example.

New area’s can all be won by labor despite the 2013 margins when they were not in the seat.on old boundaries state seats of
Bega & .monar o had similar margins suggests a personal vote for Mr Kelly

Liberals leaked polling has revealed “it’s a likely loss” with Labor’s Mike Kelly ahead 53-47 it was revealed on May 8. The bell-weather seat prospect might not apply this election, its possible Labor could win this seat and not win the election.

@PNW well Labor did hold it all the way through the Menzies era despite several very significant Coalition victories so the trend can be broken ofc.

Speaking of which, out of curiosity, does anyone know why that was the case? Were the demographics different? Was the local MP, Fraser extremely popular? Were there different boundaries?

Bowe’s analysis of EM, http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/18/eden-monaro-key-election-battleground/

Local discussion reports that Hendy has not been very visible and accessible in the electorate. Large presence of Ministers and porkbarreling down one the coast suggests that the Liberal Party is worried about this seat – could be one to go to the ALP regardless of the overall outcome.