LIB 18.2%
Incumbent MP
Julie Bishop, since 1998.
Geography
Western Perth. Curtin covers those suburbs between the northern shore of the Swan River and the Indian Ocean, stretching east to Subiaco and Leederville. Curtin stretches as far north as Doubleview and Joondanna. Key suburbs include Churchlands, Leederville, Wembley, Jolimont, Subiaco, Kings Park, Nedlands, Claremont, Swanbourne, Mount Claremont, Karrakatta, Floreat, Cottesloe, Peppermint Grove and Mosman Park.
Redistribution
Curtin shifted north, losing West Perth and Mount Hawthorn on the seat’s eastern edge to Perth, and gaining Osborne Park and the remainder of Doubleview and Innaloo from Stirling on the seat’s northern edge. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 17.4% to 18.2%.
History
Curtin was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all but one election, having been won by an independent former Liberal MP in 1996.
It was first won in 1949 by Paul Hasluck. He was appointed as Minister for Territories in 1951, and served in ministerial roles for the next eighteen years, eventually becoming Minister for External Affairs. In 1969 he left Parliament when appointed as Governor-General, a role he served in until 1974.
The 1969 Curtin by-election was won by Victor Garland. He joined the ministry under Billy McMahon in 1971, serving until the 1972 election. He then served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1975 to 1976 and again from 1977 until the 1980 election. In 1981 he resigned from Parliament to serve as Australia’s High Commissioner in London.
The 1981 Curtin by-election was won by Liberal candidate Allan Rocher. Rocher had been a Senator since 1977, resigning to run for the by-election. Rocher briefly served as a shadow minister in the early 1990s, but in 1996 was defeated for preselection by Ken Court, son of former Premier Charles Court, and brother of the then-Premier Richard Court. The Court government won re-election shortly before the 1996 federal election, but was engulfed in scandals involving his brother, and Rocher, running as an independent, managed to defeat Court in Curtin, winning re-election as an independent.
Rocher lost Curtin in 1998 to Liberal candidate Julie Bishop. Bishop was appointed Minister for Ageing in the Howard government in 2003, and in 2006 was promoted to cabinet as Minister for Education.
After the defeat of the Howard government in 2007, Bishop was elected as Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party. Bishop has served as deputy leader for the last nine years, and has served as Foreign Minister since 2013.
Candidates
- David Archibald (Liberty Alliance)
- Viv Glance (Greens)
- Melissa Callanan (Labor)
- Sandra Boulter (Independent)
- Julie Bishop (Liberal)
Assessment
Curtin is a very safe Liberal seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Julie Bishop | Liberal | 52,623 | 62.1 | +0.9 | 62.4 |
| Daryl Tan | Labor | 15,189 | 17.9 | -1.4 | 17.7 |
| Judith Cullity | Greens | 12,985 | 15.3 | -2.4 | 14.9 |
| Glenn Phillip Baker | Palmer United Party | 2,237 | 2.6 | +2.6 | 2.8 |
| Gail Forder | Australian Christians | 1,058 | 1.3 | +1.3 | 1.3 |
| Jennifer Whately | Rise Up Australia | 708 | 0.8 | +0.8 | 0.8 |
| Others | 0.2 | ||||
| Informal | 2,850 | 3.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Julie Bishop | Liberal | 57,171 | 67.4 | +1.2 | 68.2 |
| Daryl Tan | Labor | 27,629 | 32.6 | -1.2 | 31.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.
The Liberal Party won a huge majority of the primary vote in all three areas, ranging from 59% in the centre to 70% in the south.
Labor’s vote ranged from 12.5% in the south to 19.6% in the north. The Greens vote ranged from 13.4% in the south to 18% in the centre, with the Greens outpolling Labor in the south.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 60.4 | 19.6 | 14.1 | 28,872 | 34.5 |
| Central | 59.2 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 16,878 | 20.2 |
| South | 70.1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 15,944 | 19.0 |
| Other votes | 61.7 | 18.6 | 14.5 | 22,057 | 26.3 |
My local electorate – a largely old money, uber safe Liberal one.
The only issue of passing interest as far as the result is concerned is whether the ALP or Greens finish second.
Yeah I would think the greens should come second, although with what seems to be Labor tidal wave in WA, Labor should come second this time around.
I agree L96, while both the ALP and Greens should pick up votes, the addition of relatively Labor friendly booths in the redistributed north will help them. That said at the 2014 WA Special Senate election the vote was 22% Greens 12% Labor in Curtin.
That election was unusual and I’d bet on Labor remaining ahead at this election but it’s hard to say for sure in an electorate like this.
Voted at Subiaco Primary School (lighter blue area in the centre of the electorate) polling place today, a lot more Labor banners then I remember seeing in the past. Seemed to be a lot of people taking ALP and Greens HTV’s so could well be a decent swing to these parties though the Liberals will obviously hold this seat.
Will also be interesting to see how well the independent polls ( would be surprised if it was more than 10%). She is a self described single issue candidate in regards to trucks using Curtin Ave, so should poll better in the west of the electorate in areas like Cottesloe.
Bishop got a swing to her – clearly a strong MP.
Quite surprised that the Libs got a 3% swing on what is already a huge margin, I think many voters here are insulated from what is happening in their own city let alone the rest of the country. Now a race between it and Bradfield for the safest metro Liberal seat.
Bishop has always been seen to be a decent MP, but I think the swing is probably a combination of a more “small l” bent with Turnbull’s leadership attracting voters as well as concern with Labor’s economic policies, particularly negative gearing (Curtin ranks second in the country as the most negatively geared in the nation).