Corangamite – Australia 2016

LIB 3.9%

Incumbent MP
Sarah Henderson, since 2013.

Geography
South-western Victoria. Corangamite covers suburbs on the southern fringe of Geelong and then extends as far west as Colac. As well as parts of Greater Geelong, Corangamite covers all of Surf Coast, Colac Otway and Queenscliff councils, as well as a majority of Golden Plains Council. The main towns outside of Geelong are Ocean Grove, Torquay, Colac and Winchelsea.

History
Corangamite was an original federation division, and a seat which changed hands often in early years, before becoming a solid conservative seat in the latter half of the 20th century.

It’s first member was Chester Manifold of the Protectionists, but he retired due to ill-health at the 1903 election and the seat was won by Grafton Wilson for the Free Traders. Wilson was defeated in 1910 by the ALP’s James Scullin, who held the seat for one term before being defeated by former member Manifold, who returned to contest the seat for the Liberals. Manifold, whose son, Sir Chester, was a state MP and a famed horse-breeder and racing administrator, held the seat until he died at sea in 1918.

The December 1918 by-election saw the first use of preferential voting for the federal parliament. Scullin returned to contest the seat for the ALP, and topped the primary vote, but was comfortably defeated on preferences by the Victorian Farmers Union’s William Gibson. Scullin would subsequently win the seat of Yarra in 1922 and serve as Prime Minister from 1929-32.

Gibson held the seat for the Country Party, serving as Postmaster-General and Minister for Works and Railways until his defeat in 1929 by Labor’s Richard Crouch, who had previously been a Protectionist/Liberal MP for Corio from 1901-1910. Crouch then lost to Gibson in 1931, who served one more term before winning election to the Senate in 1934.

Geoffrey Street of the UAP, who would serve as Defence Minister in Menzies’ first government, won Corangamite in 1934 and held it until his death, along with two other ministers, in a plane crash in 1940.

Allan McDonald, a former state MP, won the seat for the UAP in 1940, and quickly became a minister in the Menzies government. He unsuccessfully contested the UAP leadership in 1941 and 1943, and remained on the backbench when the Liberals returned to power in 1949. He died in 1953, and was succeeded by Daniel Mackinnon, who had previously been MP for Wannon.

Mackinnon retired in 1966, and was succeeded by Tony Street, son of the former member Geoffrey, who served as a minister in various portfolios in the Fraser government and subsequently retired in early 1984.

Stewart McArthur won the seat in 1984, and held it until defeated by the ALP’s Darren Cheeseman in 2007. A seat significantly impacted by changing demographics, McArthur’s 44.70% was the lowest primary vote for the conservative major party in the seat since 1934.

The Liberal vote barely rebounded in 2010. A swing of 0.44% to the Liberal Party halved Cheeseman’s margin, and made Corangamite the most marginal seat in the country. In 2013, the Liberal Party’s Sarah Henderson regained Corangamite with a 4.2% swing.

Candidates

Assessment
Corangamite has become a key marginal seat, after a long conservative history. The expansion of the city of Geelong and other demographic changes have improved Labor’s position, which should worry Henderson. On the other hand, the Liberal Party should benefit from the new MP’s personal vote.

Polls

  • 54% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by 7 News, 26 May 2016
  • 51% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by Fairfax, 9 June 2016
  • 51% to Liberal – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016

2013 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sarah Henderson Liberal 44,778 48.3 +3.2
Darren Cheeseman Labor 29,728 32.0 -7.3
Lloyd Davies Greens 11,007 11.9 +0.3
Buddy Igor Rojek Palmer United Party 2,026 2.2 +2.2
Jayden Millard Sex Party 1,726 1.9 +1.9
Peter Wray Family First 908 1.0 -1.0
Adrian Whitehead Independent 694 0.8 +0.8
Andrew Black Nationals 598 0.6 +0.6
Alan Barron Australian Christians 499 0.5 +0.5
Warren Jackman Country Alliance 408 0.4 +0.4
Helen Rashleigh Rise Up Australia 273 0.3 +0.3
Nick Steel Protectionist 156 0.2 +0.2
Informal 4,304 4.6

2013 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sarah Henderson Liberal 50,057 53.9 +4.2
Darren Cheeseman Labor 42,744 46.1 -4.2
Polling places in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election. Colac Otway in yellow, Geelong in blue, Golden Plains in red, Ocean Grove in orange, Surf Coast in green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election. Colac Otway in yellow, Geelong in blue, Golden Plains in red, Ocean Grove in orange, Surf Coast in green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in the Surf Coast, Colac Otway and Golden Plains local government areas have been grouped by LGA. Booths in the Greater Geelong and Queenscliff local government areas have been split into two parts. Booths in the Geelong urban area have been grouped as Geelong. Booths on the Bellarine peninsula (including Queenscliff) have been grouped as Ocean Grove.

The Liberal Party managed a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, but it was very slim in all but one area. The Liberal majority was 61% in Colac Otway and roughly 51% in Geelong, Ocean Grove and Golden Plains. In Surf Coast, the Liberal Party outpolled Labor by only two votes.

The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.6% in Golden Plains to 17.7% in Surf Coast.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Geelong 11.1 50.7 19,365 20.9
Surf Coast 17.7 50.0 11,200 12.1
Ocean Grove 16.9 51.2 9,908 10.7
Colac Otway 9.2 60.8 6,811 7.3
Golden Plains 8.6 50.9 6,771 7.3
Other votes 10.3 56.7 38,746 41.8
Two-party-preferred votes in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in eastern parts of Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in eastern parts of Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in eastern parts of Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in eastern parts of Corangamite at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern Geelong at the 2013 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in southern Geelong at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in southern Geelong at the 2013 federal election.
Greens primary votes in southern Geelong at the 2013 federal election.

62 COMMENTS

  1. Despite the Liberal’s trouble in Victoria in recent years I think they will definitely hold this seat. Henderson is a high-profile and hardworking MP who will surely be returned and with a 3.9% margin, this is even more likely.

  2. The Liberals probably shot themselves in the foot by letting Stewart Macarthur hang around for so long. Maybe he was a good MP, but he was 70 at the time of the 2007 election, and very out of step with an increasingly urban sea-changer electorate. Someone like Sarah Henderson is definitely a better fit.

    Compare this seat with Corio, and you can clearly see the stark divide between the Haves and the Have Nots in Geelong.

  3. I think this is the best chance for Labor in Victoria. Geelong and its outer ares are trending Labor, and have been for over a decade. Still a tossup in my books.

  4. Henderson is very well known, perhaps so well known that she could not have added that much of a personal vote over 2013? Labor’s candidate Libby Coker is former Surf Coast mayor former journo probably a stronger candidate than Cheeseman whom she defeated for preselection. She is a political novice only recently recruited to ALP there being some complex backstory here I suspect about views on Cheeseman within ALP. Prospects will be influenced by Coker’s ability to get up to speed.

  5. That could well be the case Geoff. Nevertheless ~ 4% is a pretty hefty margin in an election where a government is expected to be returned.

  6. Just watched PM live direct from Torquay in Corangimite.
    Sarah Henderson slaughtered Libby Coker. SH was commanding, factual, & very imposing. Quite a formidable presence. LC was just pathetic in every way.

    LC used all her time ( & oxygen ) running the education cuts argument. Since there has been an increase in education spending this is impossibly oxymoronic, & therefore a complete, barefaced lie.
    SH quickly, & easily crushed poor LC.

    The libs have no concerns at all in this seat.

  7. Yes its easy to perform well when the moderator is essentially a member of the liberal party. Libby was quite across the details whilst Sarah came across as rude. Also I’m sure not many people in Corangamite watch Paul Murray.

    This is always a swing seat so if you think this will be called at 6:01 on election night you will be in for a shock. Area treding labor at a state level which will to a degree carry over to federal support.

  8. Dan
    When someone is propagating deception, & lies there are only 3 choices.
    1/ Submit, & be polite, meekly hoping you will be heard later.
    2/ React , with ill temper
    3/ Respond forcefully, & factually.
    SH was not rude. LC shot herself in the foot as i explained.

    WRT to PM
    Just because someone is unimpressed with the ALP, & BS , does not make them a member of the Liberal Party.
    The reason i watch PM live is because ex pollies, & commentators are more informative than, scripted pollies running party lines. PM is openly opinionated, & that is the purpose of the show, unlike the faux moderation on the ABC.

  9. Given those recent figures that show basically nobody watches Sky News during prime-time I doubt any candidates’ appearances on it will impact greatly on their election prospects, unless they happen to generate a clip that gets played elsewhere.

  11. yes people know Paul Murray is the biggest waste of space on TV and wouldn’t waste their lives watching even a second of his ‘news’ program

  12. @Dan That’s just your opinion. Although this is anecdotal, I have many Labor friends who quite like Paul Murray.

  15. MQ
    The demographics here could be more complex. Note the nearly 40, 000 “other” votes. This would indicate a lot faux residents in holiday homes seeking to avoid land, & CGT taxes. This is a strong trend, & these are wealthy people.
    The Greens vote actually went up here if you count Sex Party preferences, quite an anomaly in 2013. I’d conclude SH has plenty of upside to win over.

  16. And I have many liberal friends who hate Paul Murray. Saying PM live is the most highest rating program isn’t saying much. Either way the other nights debate won’t make much difference at all and was probably watched by political junkees and not the voters who actually matter

  17. @Dan ummmmm yes it is. You said that ‘…people wouldn’t waste their lives watching even a second of his ‘news’ program…’ when clearly the ratings tell a different story. No one ever said the interview was going to be transformative, but is an indicator of how each candidate can perform in front of the media which is often the crucible for political candidates these days.

  19. The Greebs did well here last time because Lloyd Davies was a very high profile candidate and he was positioned at number 1 on the ballot. The Greens have a highly energetic young candidate this time around but whether that will translate to an increased primary vote remains to be seen. They do extremely well on the surf coast and did reasonably well in Geelong too.

    If there is a swing to the Greens, and a swing to Labor, Henderson’s toast.

  21. That’s one hell of an unfortunate name for the Greens candidate. “Patchouli Paterson”? Really? It’s like every dodgy stereotype of what the Greens are or used to be, come to life. They can expect to lose 1% just for that.

  22. Bop: kinda like Jihaad Dib who represents Lakamba in the NSW parliament. Unfortunate name, but didn’t stop him getting a positive swing towards him at the last election.

  23. Matt
    Jihaad Dib is an incredibly impressive individual, & a gift to the NSW opposition. However i expect that the dead hand of Luke Foley will stymy him along with any other talent, i.e. Jodie McKay. iT would be great if Dib could get the Fed seat of Watson.

  24. Jihad Dib may have a name that would draw endless bile from the reclaim australia dickheads and their fellow travellers, but there is no doubting he is a hugely impressive person. Also an excellent role model for young Muslims in the area.
    As for this seat, I tend to think Henderson will be returned, but not by a huge margin.

  25. GG
    They may be stupid dickheads indeed, but sadly i don,t think even they could be that dumb. I’td be fun to watch tho….!!! He’d make them choke plenty

  26. Not sure anyone above lives in Corangamite, but I do. Generally, I vote Green but if they don’t preference Labor, I will go to the ALP. Who you vote for depends on an overall assessment of policies (or should be). I’m generally progressive to the left, the ALP is my preference, but, as I agree with the Green’s policies on climate change and immigration, I have voted for them over the past decade. I can’t vote for any party that preverences the current right wing Liberals.

  27. ReachTel have completed a poll (sample size, 770) for this seat which will be released tonight.

  28. Bosto2016: You know that a party’s preference recommendation has no force beyond what they put on their How-To-Vote card, right? You’re entirely free to vote Green and ignore their preference recommendation (and, it would seem, most Green voters do!).

  29. Also, Bosto2016, there’s no serious consideration of the Greens preferencing the Liberals. The only possible options they’re considering are preferencing Labor or not giving advice either way (in which case most Greens voters, like you, still give a preference to Labor).

  32. Interesting numbers.

    Except I don’t understand how NXT goes from 12.4% in Q 1 to 2.3% in Q 1a.

    I also highly doubt that NXT will be fielding a candidate here, so much of that NXT vote will probably go back to Labor/Greens on polling day.

  34. BTW ReachTEL’s figures don’t have NXT exceeding the Greens – they have: Liberal 45.7%; Labor 25.8%; Greens 14.1%; Xenophon 2.3%; Other 4.3%; Undecided 7.7%.

    Distributing the Undecideds based on the answers to Q1a gives Liberal 48.2%; Labor 27.1%; Greens 15.0%; Xenophon 3.3%; Others 6.4%.

  35. @Kme that poll does not particularly surprise me. IK that Henderson is very well-thought of as an MP inside the Liberal Party and these kind of assessments are not given lightly.

  36. Poll is obviously greatly understating Labor’s primary. It hasn’t been in the 20s since 1970. Also that kind of assessment is given out all the time just you watch all the pat on the backs they give every candidate

  37. @Dan a lot has changed since then though, in spite of the ALP’s stronger performance in Victoria.

    Whereas in the 70s a seat like Corangamite would have only seen 3 or 4 candidates, nowdays you can expect to see 12 or more, with the PV seeping all over the place. This has obviously affected Labor most severely due to the rise of the Greens. Even when Labor won the seat they barely cracked 40% of the PV.

    Of most importance of course is that although the ALP’s PV is really low, a lot of that seems to have gone to the Greens whose preferences flow right back to Labor. This produces a 2PP result of ~ 46% which is not a terrible performance from being so behind on the PV.

  38. Was down here yesterday. Sarah Henderson has plastered the electorate (at least the areas around the peninsula) with signage and billboards. Outside the footy, there were groups of people handing out Henderson propaganda…mostly met with polite rejection, but very visible all the same.

    In contrast, I saw relatively little for Cocker: a couple of yard signs here and there but that’s it.

  39. There’s plenty of people who find Cocker to be a very ordinary candidate too and find her to be very off putting, a careerist if you will as opposed to being in it to represent the people of her electorate. People in particular on the Surf Coast are capable of smelling a rat and she isn’t particularly liked in certain circles in what is supposed to be her own home base.

  40. Labor internal polling has them leading 52-48. Probably a bit too close for comfort for both parties.
    Over time I expect this to get a lot better for Labor. The newer suburban areas growing out from Geelong will become a much more crucial part of the seat and the rural parts of the seat will eventually be put into Wannon.
    The Surf Coast and Cape Otway are a bit like the Far North Coast of NSW, full of alternative lifestyle communities as well as cashed up retirees and tree changers. The Green vote will rise there over the net few election cycles but not enough to threaten Labor’s base.

  41. Teacher was left out of her bio above. The electorate has many diverse “pockets ” Close but Libby Coker to win.

  43. Sportsbet odds have blown out in the Coalitions favour. Labor’s now at $5.00 to the Libs $1.15.

    Was handing out HTV cards for the Greens at the Belmont prepoll, and there were a lot of people only taking Liberal HTV cards and saying no to everyone else.

    Henderson has resorted to using Michael Lawrence, a former Greens candidate, as a dummy candidate to spruik her ‘green credentials’. He is at no 2 on the Liberal HTVC. The CFA, read: Liberal Party volunteers masquerading as CFA members (I spotted one of the Liberal volunteers changing his Liberal t-shirt to the CFA one halfway through his shift), mainly young people, were also handing out advocating for a put Labor last vote.

    Indeed, those ‘CFA members’ were wearing tshirts purchased by the Liberal campaign and were likely handing out flyers printed by the Liberal campaign too – but to the unsuspecting eye of the average voter; they’d be none the wiser to this. To the unsuspecting voter – those ‘CFA members’ are running an independent grassroots campaign.

    Henderson is going absolutely hardball against the other candidates. She apparently had a personal issue with the Greens candidate standing near the entrance of the polling place (the AEC had no problem with where she was standing), even though Henderson herself was going right up to within a nose-length of the entrance until the AEC were forced to mark a 3Mtr radius around the entrance.

    In short, Henderson seems to be using unconventional tactics to sure up her vote in a marginal seat campaign, and it seems to be working for her.

  44. I’d be interested to know what made such a dramatic change in such a short time. I mean, even looking at the first day of pre-polling shouldn’t make THAT big a difference in predictions, that quickly.

  45. The CFA issue is significant in rural Victoria being exploited by the Liberal Party. It could affect seats like Bendigo (where I live) and Coorangamite. The Andrews Government is not doing Bill Shorten any favours in Victoria.

  47. DM, McEwen would be another seat where the CFA issue will bite. The accident-prone Liberal candidate may win despite himself.

  48. The other side of the CFA issue, in support of the Dan Andrews decision, were at the Belmont prepoll handing out flyers today, presumably as a trial to gauge reception. They indeed got a positive reception from people, and are likely to continue their effort over the coming weeks. People are seeing through the stunt the Liberals are pulling, which is pleasing.

  50. I live in the Geelong side of this electorate. The way I see it:
    1. Michael Lawrence is last – failed business man, bad experience. Why didn’t Greens endorse him if he was fit and a green option?
    2. Jobs: All the Federal departments placed in Geelong , most of the incumbents in those jobs come with them. So no new real jobs.
    3. NBN : nothing seen from either party here, roll out projection still 3 years away. Like it was when ALP set it up. Go figure.

    Summary, neither party deserve the vote, and small/independents screwed it up the election before last. No real standout to catch my vote.

Newer Comments »

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here