LIB 3.9%
Incumbent MP
Sarah Henderson, since 2013.
Geography
South-western Victoria. Corangamite covers suburbs on the southern fringe of Geelong and then extends as far west as Colac. As well as parts of Greater Geelong, Corangamite covers all of Surf Coast, Colac Otway and Queenscliff councils, as well as a majority of Golden Plains Council. The main towns outside of Geelong are Ocean Grove, Torquay, Colac and Winchelsea.
History
Corangamite was an original federation division, and a seat which changed hands often in early years, before becoming a solid conservative seat in the latter half of the 20th century.
It’s first member was Chester Manifold of the Protectionists, but he retired due to ill-health at the 1903 election and the seat was won by Grafton Wilson for the Free Traders. Wilson was defeated in 1910 by the ALP’s James Scullin, who held the seat for one term before being defeated by former member Manifold, who returned to contest the seat for the Liberals. Manifold, whose son, Sir Chester, was a state MP and a famed horse-breeder and racing administrator, held the seat until he died at sea in 1918.
The December 1918 by-election saw the first use of preferential voting for the federal parliament. Scullin returned to contest the seat for the ALP, and topped the primary vote, but was comfortably defeated on preferences by the Victorian Farmers Union’s William Gibson. Scullin would subsequently win the seat of Yarra in 1922 and serve as Prime Minister from 1929-32.
Gibson held the seat for the Country Party, serving as Postmaster-General and Minister for Works and Railways until his defeat in 1929 by Labor’s Richard Crouch, who had previously been a Protectionist/Liberal MP for Corio from 1901-1910. Crouch then lost to Gibson in 1931, who served one more term before winning election to the Senate in 1934.
Geoffrey Street of the UAP, who would serve as Defence Minister in Menzies’ first government, won Corangamite in 1934 and held it until his death, along with two other ministers, in a plane crash in 1940.
Allan McDonald, a former state MP, won the seat for the UAP in 1940, and quickly became a minister in the Menzies government. He unsuccessfully contested the UAP leadership in 1941 and 1943, and remained on the backbench when the Liberals returned to power in 1949. He died in 1953, and was succeeded by Daniel Mackinnon, who had previously been MP for Wannon.
Mackinnon retired in 1966, and was succeeded by Tony Street, son of the former member Geoffrey, who served as a minister in various portfolios in the Fraser government and subsequently retired in early 1984.
Stewart McArthur won the seat in 1984, and held it until defeated by the ALP’s Darren Cheeseman in 2007. A seat significantly impacted by changing demographics, McArthur’s 44.70% was the lowest primary vote for the conservative major party in the seat since 1934.
The Liberal vote barely rebounded in 2010. A swing of 0.44% to the Liberal Party halved Cheeseman’s margin, and made Corangamite the most marginal seat in the country. In 2013, the Liberal Party’s Sarah Henderson regained Corangamite with a 4.2% swing.
Candidates
- Michael Lawrence (Independent)
- Alan Barron (Family First)
- Nick Steel (Rise Up Australia)
- Louis Rowe (Liberal Democrats)
- Libby Coker (Labor)
- Patrice Nelson (Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party)
- Andy Meddick (Animal Justice)
- Courtney Dalton (Drug Law Reform)
- Patchouli Paterson (Greens)
- Sarah Henderson (Liberal)
Assessment
Corangamite has become a key marginal seat, after a long conservative history. The expansion of the city of Geelong and other demographic changes have improved Labor’s position, which should worry Henderson. On the other hand, the Liberal Party should benefit from the new MP’s personal vote.
Polls
- 54% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by 7 News, 26 May 2016
- 51% to Liberal – Reachtel commissioned by Fairfax, 9 June 2016
- 51% to Liberal – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sarah Henderson | Liberal | 44,778 | 48.3 | +3.2 |
| Darren Cheeseman | Labor | 29,728 | 32.0 | -7.3 |
| Lloyd Davies | Greens | 11,007 | 11.9 | +0.3 |
| Buddy Igor Rojek | Palmer United Party | 2,026 | 2.2 | +2.2 |
| Jayden Millard | Sex Party | 1,726 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Peter Wray | Family First | 908 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| Adrian Whitehead | Independent | 694 | 0.8 | +0.8 |
| Andrew Black | Nationals | 598 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Alan Barron | Australian Christians | 499 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Warren Jackman | Country Alliance | 408 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Helen Rashleigh | Rise Up Australia | 273 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Nick Steel | Protectionist | 156 | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| Informal | 4,304 | 4.6 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Sarah Henderson | Liberal | 50,057 | 53.9 | +4.2 |
| Darren Cheeseman | Labor | 42,744 | 46.1 | -4.2 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in the Surf Coast, Colac Otway and Golden Plains local government areas have been grouped by LGA. Booths in the Greater Geelong and Queenscliff local government areas have been split into two parts. Booths in the Geelong urban area have been grouped as Geelong. Booths on the Bellarine peninsula (including Queenscliff) have been grouped as Ocean Grove.
The Liberal Party managed a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, but it was very slim in all but one area. The Liberal majority was 61% in Colac Otway and roughly 51% in Geelong, Ocean Grove and Golden Plains. In Surf Coast, the Liberal Party outpolled Labor by only two votes.
The Greens came third, with a vote ranging from 8.6% in Golden Plains to 17.7% in Surf Coast.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Geelong | 11.1 | 50.7 | 19,365 | 20.9 |
| Surf Coast | 17.7 | 50.0 | 11,200 | 12.1 |
| Ocean Grove | 16.9 | 51.2 | 9,908 | 10.7 |
| Colac Otway | 9.2 | 60.8 | 6,811 | 7.3 |
| Golden Plains | 8.6 | 50.9 | 6,771 | 7.3 |
| Other votes | 10.3 | 56.7 | 38,746 | 41.8 |
Michael Lawrence is merely a stooge candidate of Sarah Henderson intended to take away votes from the Greens. She knows that if the Greens increase their primary vote, that the vast majority of that vote will flow back to Labor in preferences because the Greens are recommending preferences to Labor ahead of the Liberals, where as votes for an independent will be more 50/50 either way (he’s not recommending preferences on his HTV cards). In an electorate that will come very close, every vote will be the difference between losing and winning. This is a way for Sarah Henderson to shore up her re-election chances, as is her using the CFA as a political plaything.
Lawrence has no love in local Greens circles, indeed; a lot of people think he is arrogant and very ego driven. I suspect that his candidacy as a Green in 2010 would have been confirmed with a lot of people holding their noses. I had s brief chat to him at the prepoll on Friday last week – his economic talking points are very much Liberal, as are his talking points on asylum seekers.
Scratch that: Michael Lawrence is recommending a no. 2 for Henderson on his HTV cards.
Another poll out tomorrow from Galaxy apparently with Libs still narrowly ahead
My prediction: Likely Liberal hold
My prediction: Prone to large swings, Bass could go either way, although is the most likely of the three Liberal seats in Tasmania to stay blue.
Likely Liberal hold.
Apologies for that last comment, that was obviously meant to be for Bass.
Every man and his dog is campaigning at at the Belmont prepoll this week – Animal Justice Party have quite a large presence, as do Labor and the Greens; Gonski campaigners have also been very active. NXT campaigners were also handing out Senate HTVCs last Saturday and on Monday. Australian Christians have also been active this week too, and the local Combined Refugee Action Group joined in on the fun today as well.
The Liberal Party are absolutely dominating as far as numbers are concerned. If the Greens and Labor up their number of prepoll workers, the Libs simply go one person more. It was literally a sea of blue and green shirts on Saturday morning/early afternoon and it would’ve been very hard for voters to spot the Labor people.
Still though – there are more people only taking Labor and Greens HTVCs this week then there were in the last two weeks.
Prediction: Liberal retain. The CFA volunteer dispute, while technically a Victorian state issue, may hurt Labor here
As with Latrobe, there is a difference in swing pattern between urban and rural that at face value seems due to the CFA issue.
Urban Geelong swung to Labor, most of the rural and coastal communities saw a swing to the Liberals or no swing at all.
I’m surprised so many people brought into the whole CFA issue, given its a state issue. The Libs don’t deserve to have government based on what is effectively a lie.
@Matt you obviously weren’t here in NSW when Labor were pushing the whole ‘Baird is a friend of Abbot’ line. We had internals and published polls saying that 25% of people were buying this line and were less likely to vote for the Coalition because of it.
It’s the nature of politics unfortunately and the dangers of a federalised system. The State Bank collapse in the 1990s destroyed Labor’s vote in SA for a decade and obviously affected them severely there. This is the most glaring example I can think of where state/federal issues were conflated by the voters.
Don’t get me wrong, should state and federal issues be confused? Absolutely not! Do they become so because of politicking? Yes! Is that likely to change? No!
I tend to think that the “WA Inc” scandal is still depressing the Labor vote a bit in WA at both State and Federal levels.