LNP 0.8%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Landry, since 2013.
Geography
Central Queensland. Capricornia covers the Queensland coast from Rockhampton to just south of Mackay.
History
Capricornia is an original federation electorate. After changing between a number of parties in early decades, the seat was held by the ALP for most of the last half-century, with the exception of two wins by the Country/National Party at particular low-points for the ALP, before the LNP won in 2013.
The seat was first won in 1901 by independent candidate Alexander Paterson. Paterson didn’t run for re-election in 1903, and was succeeded by the ALP’s David Thompson.
Thomson lost in 1906 to the Anti-Socialist Party’s Edward Archer. Archer too was defeated after one term, losing in 1910 to the ALP’s William Higgs.
Higgs was a former Senator for Queensland, who held Capricornia for the next decade. He served as Treasurer in Billy Hughes’ government from 1915 to 1916, resigning over Hughes’ support for conscription. Ironically he later left the ALP in 1920 and ended up in Hughes’ Nationalist Party. He failed to win re-election as a Nationalist in 1922, losing to the ALP’s Frank Forde.
Forde was the state MP for Rockhampton, and rose quickly in the federal Labor ranks. He served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, being promoted to cabinet in the final days of the government in 1931. Forde became Deputy Leader of the ALP in 1932.
Forde contested the leadership of the party in 1935, losing by one vote to John Curtin, having lost support due to his support for Scullin’s economic policies. He served as Minister for the Army during the Second World War on the election of the Curtin government.
Forde became Prime Minister in July 1945 upon the death of John Curtin, and served eight days before losing a leadership ballot to Ben Chifley. He served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence in the aftermath of the Second World War, until he lost Capricornia at the 1946 election, despite the ALP winning a comfortable victory.
Capricornia was won in 1946 by the Liberal Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson moved to the new seat of Dawson in 1949, and went on to serve as a minister in the Menzies government before retiring in 1963.
Davidson was succeeded in Capricornia in 1949 by Henry Pearce, also from the Liberal Party. Pearce held Capricornia for twelve years, losing in 1961 to the ALP’s George Gray.
Gray held the seat until his death in 1967, and the ensuing by-election was won by Doug Everingham. He served as Minister for Health in the Whitlam government, but lost Capricornia in 1975 to Colin Carige of the National Country Party, winning it back in 1977. Everingham then managed to hold the seat until his retirement in 1984.
He was succeeded in 1984 by Keith Wright, who had been the Labor leader in the Queensland parliament since 1982 and member for Rockhampton since 1969. Wright held Capricornia until 1993, when he was charged with rape, leading to him losing his ALP endorsement. He contested Capricornia as an independent, but lost to ALP candidate Marjorie Henzell.
Henzell held the seat for one term, losing to National candidate Paul Marek in 1996. Marek also held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Kirsten Livermore in 1998. Livermore was re-elected in Capricornia in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
Livermore retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Michelle Landry won the seat with a 4.5% swing.
Candidates
- Kate Giamarelos (Greens)
- Laurel Carter (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Lindsay Temple (Family First)
- Michelle Landry (Liberal National)
- Ken Murray (Independent)
- Leisa Neaton (Labor)
Assessment
The LNP holds Capricornia by a very slim margin, and certainly shouldn’t take this seat for granted. On the other hand, the LNP should benefit from incumbency which could blunt any swing.
Polls
- 50-50 – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 33,608 | 39.6 | -0.8 |
| Peter Freeleagus | Labor | 31,450 | 37.0 | -8.7 |
| Derek James Ison | Palmer United Party | 6,747 | 8.0 | +8.0 |
| Robbie Williams | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,708 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Hazel Alley | Family First | 3,274 | 3.9 | +0.4 |
| Paul Bambrick | Greens | 2,910 | 3.4 | -2.1 |
| Bruce Diamond | 1,777 | 2.1 | +2.1 | |
| Paul Lewis | Rise Up Australia | 439 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,614 | 5.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 43,109 | 50.8 | +4.5 |
| Peter Freeleagus | Labor | 41,804 | 49.2 | -4.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Isaac Regional Council area have been grouped together. This area has the smallest population but covers the largest areas. A majority of voters live in the Rockhampton council area. Booths in this area have been split between those in the Rockhampton urban areas itself and those outside of it. Booths in the Mackay and Whitsunday areas have been grouped as “North”.
The LNP won majorities of 53-54% in the north of the seat and in the Livingstone area outside of Rockhampton.
Labor still managed almost 55% of the two-party-preferred vote in Rockhampton, making up a large part of the seat, and narrowly won in the low-population Isaacs area.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 6.7 | 45.2 | 25,199 | 29.7 |
| North | 10.7 | 53.1 | 12,606 | 14.8 |
| Livingstone | 7.7 | 53.9 | 9,617 | 11.3 |
| Isaac | 9.9 | 49.7 | 4,746 | 5.6 |
| Other votes | 7.6 | 53.4 | 32,745 | 38.6 |
I think if anything, this seat is one of the most likely to fall in Queensland despite the advantages of incumbency. Although a while ago now, this was one of the only seats to change hands in 1977 and was easily won by the ALP in 1998.
This seat will fall for sure without the involvement of PUP.
Labor should pick up this one, barring any unforseen campaign events
This a seat which should be held by Labor for a long time, barring circumstances of deep unpopularity like last election. In most cases this should be a 6-7% safe Labor seat.
Liam
You would be right except for the ALP alienating the coal miners, because of their closeness to the Greens. Carbon tax,renewable energy, etc, etc. Lots of CM’s in this one.
I agree with winediamond. Because of the ALP’s move to cater to the left/Green elements within society this area will over time, become more and more friendly to the Coalition. Nevertheless, I think that it will not be enough to overcome the swing back to Labor…this time…
Wreathy
Thanks for that. THIS time, right ?!!.
Labor has selected well in this seat with Leisa Neaton, I’d expect a swing of 4-5% to Labor TPP here. Turnbull won’t appeal to these natural Labor voters. Michelle has been a strong advocate for Capricornia this past term, but it will likely be her only term.
PRP
Do you think the current imbroglio in Townsville, over the nickel refinery, will have an influence here ??. What has Michelle Landry accomplished for Capricornia ?? I take your word for it , but i’m curious.
If she really has done a stellar job, maybe she has a chance ??. There was after all a combined 13.5% PUP, Katter vote here
Should be a Labor win, all things being equal. Although it will be interesting to see if the whole Rob Pyne “Labor don’t care about northern Queensland” thing has any impact federally.
MM
This seems to be a “message”,if not THE message.
Pyne, Katter,Entsch et al, seem to to be pretty bloody loud about it too !!!.
Frankly it is a good message, & not without foundation, or validity.
@BenRaue – minor typo in the last paragraph – It’s Isaac, not Isaacs.
It’s surprising that they didn’t do better in Isaac in 2013 given Peter Freeleagus is a long standing councillor in Moranbah. As this seat would naturally lean to the ALP, it’s smart they’ve preselected someone from the Rockhampton base.
Prediction: easy ALP gain.
It is interesting to note that Mackerras thinks this as a seat the Coalition could actually hold. Whilst I fiercely disagree with him and do not hold his view in high esteem (he has been quite wrong before) it is certainly an interesting position. Someone who aligns somewhat more with your view Winediamond it seems?
W of S
It is uncomfortable to find oneself on the side of Mackerras.
However i sense the LNP stand a better chance here than in other marginals. Frankly if these people (in fact ,most QLDers) knew what was best for THEM. They would vote for Katter.
Perhaps after Xenophon shows them how it’s done….??
The great unknown here is what happens to the 8% who voted PUP? That’ll be decisive.
Ignoring this, I think this is an ALP win, given the strength of the candidate, but it’s possible PUP voters could fall back into the LNP and deliver them victory.
Macca- GC
Yep. That thought occurred to me too.
on pure numbers alone – this should be a ALP gain – but being a resident and knowing the feel – Landry surely has the sophmore swing going for her – expect this to be winnable easily
alexskotty
Thanks. Terrific to hear from a local. Would you hazard a guess at what margin Landry might have built in reality ???
@Alexskotty, give us the local perspective on Landry. What do Capricornians think of her?
I think the margin is just too low here. The sophomore swing and the loss of mining workers may help the LNP but I would counter that by the anger in those mining communities and a swing back to Labor in Rocky. Also the Palmer vote is likely to partly go back to Labor, though some to Katter. I think Katter pulls just over 15% here. I am surprised by the lack of one nation candidate plus I know Lazarus was really trying to get a candidate.
I think the margin is just too low here. The sophomore swing and the loss of mining workers may help the LNP but I would counter that by the anger in those mining communities and a swing back to Labor in Rocky. Also the Palmer vote is likely to partly go back to Labor, though some to Katter. I think Katter pulls just over 15% here. I am surprised by the lack of one nation candidate plus I know Lazarus was really trying to get a candidate.
Sportsbet has Labor ahead, here:
Labor 1.50, LNP 2.50
suspect Labor could win this seat on a increase in Rockhampton alone
Still very close with Newspoll 2PP at 50% each
Amazed it’s that close – I thought Labor would have a decent lead here.
The changing composition of the LNP/ALP voting demographics have really hurt Labor here it seems. If the Coalition holds this seat it would be the first time since the 60s!
It is great live in such a marginal seat. Big promises from both sides. Don’t write off Landry. She has been a tireless worker. As usual, the unions have made their presence felt in Rockhampton. Their constant hectoring isn’t always a plus for the ALP.
I think the mistake here is to assume that all those who lost their jobs will still be living in the electorate.
I know in everyone said that the decline of mining jobs (+ this being a natural Labor seat) would have killed the LNP.
As we now know, predictions are showing a close result so either the job-seekers don’t care (unlikely IMO) or they are no longer in the electorate and have moved to find a job.
Just to clarify, I am not saying that this is the definitive reason for the supposed (and I do emphasise the word ‘supposed’) closeness in Capricornia, but am instead offering up only one of many possible reasons.
Morgan gallop poll listing KAP Laurel Carter at 11% (last week) local stated as high as 15% these preferences will have a big say in who holds the seat. Only nominated right at the close of polls so who knows.
I think it is close as Landry appears to have the business/establishment vote from where I sit. I think Labor is suffering from years of a member who has not acted for the citizens of Capricornia. Also do not forget that the Liberal government rubber stamped the largest coal mine in the world to the west and the follow on effects will be massive for Capricornia. This election will be close and I think it will come down to preferences. I would not be surprised if Landry is returned.
Galaxy poll out tonight has LNP 49%, ALP 51%
Those numbers are certainly not good for Labor. However, they probably expected this seat to drift away from them over time. Maybe not this time, but in 2 or 3 elections this may become more Liberal leaning.
This race is tightening a bit according to Sportsbet
Labor 1.60, LNP 2.25
My prediction: Likely Labor gain, Capricornia may be trending LNP, but only leaves Labor’s grasp in landslides like 1975, 1996 and 2013. The Coalition lost Capricornia in 1977 and 1998 respectively.
Race has tightened further.
Labor 1.75, LNP 2.05
Preciction: Labor will pick this one up
Prediction I mean, sorry about the typo
If Labor doesn’t pick this seat up (and I’m very concerned they won’t) they won’t pick up any seats north of this. Qld looking like it’s going to be a horror show for Labor.
@FtB I do find it interesting how Labor are doing well in the regions like in Flynn and Dawson, yet are having trouble here.
Just an amateur opinion:
1. I think Landry is a better local MP than Christensen or O’Dowd.
2. Having Senator Canavan based in Rocky with his office resources helps
3. Rocky’s economy is much more balanced. It has a strong agricultural sector and is less reliant on mining or tourism thus less voliatile than Dawson or Flynn. The economy is not hurting as much.
4. This is the beef capital of Rocky plus the inland cattle properties. Labor’s record in live exports still hurts them.
5. Landry has the sophomore surge factor unlike O’Dowd or George.
You combine all those factors and it starts to make sense.
5. Landry and Canavan have been very effective with pical media on issues that matter (hispital parking, Great Keppel Island tourism issues and ag sector stuff)
Local media *
Hospital*
@Qld Observer…That’s a great summary of why Capricornia is still competitive. It will be hard for Landry to hold on because of the overall swing…but if she manages, she’s likely to be entrenched for many years.
Labor ahead by a 1000 votes, this one could come down to the wire. Whether it’s enough for Labor withstand the postal votes is another question. Considering the swing against the LNP in North/Central Queensland they have performed better here to contain it.
The ABC had it on 50.2 for the LNP on election night. Very close.
Pretty impressive if the LNP hold this and lose Flynn and Herbert.
Morgieb…actually it was quite predictable, there’s a see of red ink in property prices from Caloundra right round the north coast to Perth and its now stretching into Adelaide. Gladstone, Townsville and Darwin are hurting with Tasmania also seeing very little movement in property values as well. These are the people left behind.
The biggest mistake the LNP made was not to realise this and via suggesting that property prices are liked with economic good times, in the regions were property prices are falling this came as an admission of economic failure to these voters. Frankly the Libs are lucky to message worked for them in Melbourne were they are poised to pick one and possibly two seats.
My surprise is that they didn’t do a clean sweep and pick up Dawson as well.
But I will make one prediction, because the economy is on the cusp of a major slow down which won’t really become apparent until November, Who ever who ever wins this election will lose badly in 2019 if we make it that far.
This one went as I expected. A much narrower swing than Flynn, Herbert or Dawson.
Sandbelter
Perhaps i’m not quite ready to agree with your property value theory. However i very readily agree that whom ever wins will be booted hard in 2019.
A truly poisoned chalice, if ever there was one !!.
Both Shorten, & Turnbull are so recklessly ambitious they would take the job under any circumstances. However IMV both would be unlikely even to survive a full term (until 2019 ) .
Indeed if Turnbull had any sense, he would resign right now. I cannot see him ever having the patience, or humility to negotiate with a cross bench .
Pretty much the same goes for Shorten, except he will have no reservations about spending as much (of our money) as it takes to get the job !!! Just as Gilliard did !!!
Federal minority governments have historically been disastrous for the governing party. The following election always destroys the incumbent – 1943 was a catastrophic defeat as was 2013 (which would have been much worse had Gillard stayed on).
Shorten can bide his time. The party has locked in behind him. With most of the incoming Senate cross-bench serving three year terms, the next election will be a good one to win.
Turnbull however has no choice but to accept the poisoned chalice.