LNP 0.8%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Landry, since 2013.
Geography
Central Queensland. Capricornia covers the Queensland coast from Rockhampton to just south of Mackay.
History
Capricornia is an original federation electorate. After changing between a number of parties in early decades, the seat was held by the ALP for most of the last half-century, with the exception of two wins by the Country/National Party at particular low-points for the ALP, before the LNP won in 2013.
The seat was first won in 1901 by independent candidate Alexander Paterson. Paterson didn’t run for re-election in 1903, and was succeeded by the ALP’s David Thompson.
Thomson lost in 1906 to the Anti-Socialist Party’s Edward Archer. Archer too was defeated after one term, losing in 1910 to the ALP’s William Higgs.
Higgs was a former Senator for Queensland, who held Capricornia for the next decade. He served as Treasurer in Billy Hughes’ government from 1915 to 1916, resigning over Hughes’ support for conscription. Ironically he later left the ALP in 1920 and ended up in Hughes’ Nationalist Party. He failed to win re-election as a Nationalist in 1922, losing to the ALP’s Frank Forde.
Forde was the state MP for Rockhampton, and rose quickly in the federal Labor ranks. He served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, being promoted to cabinet in the final days of the government in 1931. Forde became Deputy Leader of the ALP in 1932.
Forde contested the leadership of the party in 1935, losing by one vote to John Curtin, having lost support due to his support for Scullin’s economic policies. He served as Minister for the Army during the Second World War on the election of the Curtin government.
Forde became Prime Minister in July 1945 upon the death of John Curtin, and served eight days before losing a leadership ballot to Ben Chifley. He served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence in the aftermath of the Second World War, until he lost Capricornia at the 1946 election, despite the ALP winning a comfortable victory.
Capricornia was won in 1946 by the Liberal Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson moved to the new seat of Dawson in 1949, and went on to serve as a minister in the Menzies government before retiring in 1963.
Davidson was succeeded in Capricornia in 1949 by Henry Pearce, also from the Liberal Party. Pearce held Capricornia for twelve years, losing in 1961 to the ALP’s George Gray.
Gray held the seat until his death in 1967, and the ensuing by-election was won by Doug Everingham. He served as Minister for Health in the Whitlam government, but lost Capricornia in 1975 to Colin Carige of the National Country Party, winning it back in 1977. Everingham then managed to hold the seat until his retirement in 1984.
He was succeeded in 1984 by Keith Wright, who had been the Labor leader in the Queensland parliament since 1982 and member for Rockhampton since 1969. Wright held Capricornia until 1993, when he was charged with rape, leading to him losing his ALP endorsement. He contested Capricornia as an independent, but lost to ALP candidate Marjorie Henzell.
Henzell held the seat for one term, losing to National candidate Paul Marek in 1996. Marek also held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Kirsten Livermore in 1998. Livermore was re-elected in Capricornia in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
Livermore retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Michelle Landry won the seat with a 4.5% swing.
Candidates
- Kate Giamarelos (Greens)
- Laurel Carter (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Lindsay Temple (Family First)
- Michelle Landry (Liberal National)
- Ken Murray (Independent)
- Leisa Neaton (Labor)
Assessment
The LNP holds Capricornia by a very slim margin, and certainly shouldn’t take this seat for granted. On the other hand, the LNP should benefit from incumbency which could blunt any swing.
Polls
- 50-50 – Newspoll, 13-15 June 2016
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 33,608 | 39.6 | -0.8 |
| Peter Freeleagus | Labor | 31,450 | 37.0 | -8.7 |
| Derek James Ison | Palmer United Party | 6,747 | 8.0 | +8.0 |
| Robbie Williams | Katter’s Australian Party | 4,708 | 5.5 | +5.5 |
| Hazel Alley | Family First | 3,274 | 3.9 | +0.4 |
| Paul Bambrick | Greens | 2,910 | 3.4 | -2.1 |
| Bruce Diamond | 1,777 | 2.1 | +2.1 | |
| Paul Lewis | Rise Up Australia | 439 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
| Informal | 4,614 | 5.4 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 43,109 | 50.8 | +4.5 |
| Peter Freeleagus | Labor | 41,804 | 49.2 | -4.5 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Isaac Regional Council area have been grouped together. This area has the smallest population but covers the largest areas. A majority of voters live in the Rockhampton council area. Booths in this area have been split between those in the Rockhampton urban areas itself and those outside of it. Booths in the Mackay and Whitsunday areas have been grouped as “North”.
The LNP won majorities of 53-54% in the north of the seat and in the Livingstone area outside of Rockhampton.
Labor still managed almost 55% of the two-party-preferred vote in Rockhampton, making up a large part of the seat, and narrowly won in the low-population Isaacs area.
| Voter group | PUP % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 6.7 | 45.2 | 25,199 | 29.7 |
| North | 10.7 | 53.1 | 12,606 | 14.8 |
| Livingstone | 7.7 | 53.9 | 9,617 | 11.3 |
| Isaac | 9.9 | 49.7 | 4,746 | 5.6 |
| Other votes | 7.6 | 53.4 | 32,745 | 38.6 |
Turnbull should step down due to poor health – his ‘victory’ speech was insane
I don’t know that 1943 had much to do with the disarray of Menzies and Fadden in 1940-41. Curtin’s was also a minority government. The landslide of ’43 was an endorsement of his wartime leadership.
DW
Turnbull does have a choice. It is simply the reality that he does not have the good judgement to make the correct one !!!.
@DW I disagree. The voters chose Labor not just because of good leadership (although that was obviously part of it) but because they were unwilling to return to a split Coalition. Remember even in 1943, the Coalition was still a mess – both parties had splintered in every state.
winediamond – I’m not clear on what you think the “correct choice” is.
Is it sending Australia back to the polls? If so, that will destroy the Liberal party as NXT, One Nation, Katter Party, etc, will capture heaps of extra votes in protest at the Liberals.
Is it forming a minority government? That would be the “poisoned chalice” that DW referred to, right?
Is it letting Labor take a shot at it? That could backfire, as Labor’s big policies are ones that most of the minors/independents support, or are at least closer to Labor than Liberal on the topics. Labor could probably get away with spending the next couple of years treading water and passing things that the crossbenchers agree with them on, then calling an election, whereas the Liberals can’t really do it when their biggest policies are things that the crossbenchers campaigned against.
I have to agree that the Liberals may end up having to drop Turnbull – it would allow them to pivot, claim that the big Liberal policies were Turnbull policies, and draw up a new priority list that crossbenchers will be more open to.
Glen
The correct choice is for him ( Turnbull ) to resign. He simply does not have the patience, humility, diplomacy, etc, etc. to do the job required.
Whomever attempts to govern will need these qualities is spades There will be endless negotiation, communication, & accommodation .
Whilst Shorten has long experience in these situations, any attempt to govern on those terms would end in tears. He will too readily compromise the national interest, as is his way. Sometimes it’s better to have no deal, than to make one that is too costly. AS Gillard refused to learn. The result is history.
IMV Shorten has little experience in safeguarding a higher purpose.
If labor attempt to govern as they did in 2010 the result will be the same this time. You may like their policies. However they will be judged on their governance, as they were in 2013.
The libs will be terrified of executing Turnbull, & it would be a mistake. It would be wiser for them to wait , & allow the humiliation of this outcome to take it’s toll.
I doubt Turnbull will last long.
The real question is who will lead next. Unless it is Christian Porter, failure is assured.
BTW Australia probably will be sent back to the polls. the question will be why , & when. IMV there is currently just as much chance that would (ultimately ) decimate the ALP, as the libs. The circumstances will not be known for months , or years.
Let me know if i’ve overlooked something
cheers WD
One thing to remember with talks of another election shortly is that any election held before July 1, 2018 must be House-only (unless a fresh double-dissolution trigger is engineered and used, but I can’t see either major party going down that path for a long time to come).