ALP 11.2%
Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers large parts of the City of Bankstown. A majority of the seat lies in Bankstown council area, along with small parts of Fairfield, Holroyd, Parramatta and Auburn council areas. It covers the centre of Bankstown and the suburbs of Condell Park, Yagoona, Georges Hall, Bass Hill, Birrong, Chester Hill, Villawood, Yennora, Regents Park and parts of Fairfield and Granville.
Redistribution
Blaxland gained Auburn and parts of Lidcombe from Reid, Milperra from Hughes, and a small area from Banks. Blaxland lost Carramar and part of Villawood to Fowler, lost Guildford and Woodpark to McMahon and a small area to Parramatta. These changes cut the Labor margin from 11.4% to 11.2%.
History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.
Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.
Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.
Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.
The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election. Clare won re-election in 2010 and 2013.
Candidates
- Jason Clare (Labor)
- Suzan Virago (Greens)
- Gabriela Zabala (Socialist Equality Party)
- Felicity Findlay (Liberal)
- Clint Nasr (Christian Democratic Party)
Assessment
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat.
2013 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Clare | Labor | 43,568 | 55.7 | +4.8 | 55.0 |
| Anthony Khouri | Liberal | 25,579 | 32.7 | -0.6 | 33.3 |
| John Ky | Greens | 2,416 | 3.1 | -3.2 | 3.4 |
| Zali Burrows | Palmer United Party | 2,119 | 2.7 | +2.7 | 2.9 |
| Nafez Taleb | Katter’s Australian Party | 1,921 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2.0 |
| Juliat Nasr | Christian Democratic Party | 1,757 | 2.3 | +2.3 | 2.2 |
| Boutros Zalloua | Democratic Labour Party | 817 | 1.1 | +1.1 | 0.9 |
| Others | 0.3 | ||||
| Informal | 12,380 | 15.8 |
2013 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Clare | Labor | 48,025 | 61.4 | -0.8 | 61.2 |
| Anthony Khouri | Liberal | 30,152 | 38.6 | +0.8 | 38.8 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south. The centre and the south covers those areas in the Bankstown council area, while the north covers those in the new Cumberland council area.
The Labor two-party-preferred vote ranged from 60% in the south to 67% in the north.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 59.9 | 19,142 | 25.2 |
| North | 67.1 | 17,414 | 22.9 |
| Central | 62.0 | 16,498 | 21.7 |
| Other votes | 57.1 | 22,983 | 30.2 |
My prediction: Easy Labor hold.
Just out of interest, what’s with the big 64 booth in the south?
W of S
Milperra mate.