LIB 5.7%
Incumbent MP
Dan Tehan, since 2010.
Geography
South-western Victoria. Wannon covers the southwestern corner of Victoria, including Warrnambool, Portland, Ararat and Hamilton. Wannon covers Pyrenees, Ararat, Corangamite, Central Goldfields, Glenelg, Moyne, Southern Grampians and Warrnambool council areas.
Redistribution
Wannon previously covered part of the Northern Grampians council area, which was transferred to Mallee. Wannon gained the Central Goldfields council area from Bendigo. This reduced the Liberal margin from 7.3% to 5.7%.
History
Wannon is an original federation seat, having been created for the 1901 election. It has mainly been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, with the exception of a number of short periods when it was held by the ALP, with the ALP last holding the seat up to the 1955 election.
Wannon was first won in 1901 by Free Trade candidate Samuel Cooke. Cooke was a former minister in the Victorian colonial government, and he held the seat for one term before heading overseas in 1903.
He was succeeded in 1903 by another Free Trader, Arthur Robinson, who was a former colonial/state MP in the Victorian Parliament. Robinson held the seat for one term, losing in 1906. He went on to return to the Victorian Parliament and serve as a state minister.
The ALP’s John McDougall won Wannon off Robinson in 1906, campaigning against Robinson’s anti-union views. McDougall was re-elected in 1910, but lost in 1913, and failed to return to the House of Representatives in other seats at the 1914 election, a 1915 by-election and the 1917 election.
McDougall was replaced in 1913 by Liberal candidate Arthur Rodgers. Rodgers served as a minister in the Hughes government from 1920 to 1922 He held the seat until the 1922 election, when he lost to the ALP’s John McNeill. Rodgers won the seat back in 1925, before again losing to McNeill in 1929. McNeill served as a minister in the Scullin government, before losing the seat yet again in 1931.
The United Australia Party’s Thomas Scholfield won the seat in 1931, and held it until 1940, when he lost to the ALP’s Donald McLeod. McLeod held the seat for most of the next decade, losing it in 1949 to the Liberal Party’s Daniel Mackinnon.
Mackinnon only held the seat for one term, with McLeod regaining the seat in 1951. Mackinnon went on to win the neighbouring seat of Corangamite in a 1953 by-election, and held it until 1966.
At the 1954 election, McLeod was challenged by Liberal candidate Malcolm Fraser. McLeod defeated Fraser with a 17-vote margin.
In 1955, McLeod retired, and Fraser won the seat with a comfortable margin.
Fraser was a right-winger within the Liberal Party, and sat on the backbenches for a decade before joining the ministry in 1966. He served first as Minister for the Army, then Minister for Education and Science, and then Minister for Defence.
In 1971, he resigned from the ministry in protest at John Gorton’s interference in his portfolio, triggering a party room vote which saw a tied vote, and John Gorton was replaced as Prime Minister by William McMahon.
Fraser served as a minister in the McMahon government and on the opposition frontbench in the first term of the Whitlam government. After Billy Snedden’s loss in 1974 Fraser challenged for the leadership. Under Fraser’s leadership, the Liberal Party obstructed Gough Whitlam’s government in the Senate, which eventually led to Whitlam being dismissed by the Governor-General in late 1975, and Fraser became Prime Minister.
Fraser won the 1975, 1977 and 1980 elections, but lost in 1983, and retired from Parliament shortly after.
The 1983 by-election was won by David Hawker, also of the Liberal Party. Hawker served as an opposition whip from 1989 to 1990 and as a frontbencher from 1990 to 1993, and again as a whip until the 1996 election.
Hawker served as a backbencher in the Howard government from 1996 until the 2004 election. Hawker was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives after the 2004 election, and served in the role until the 2007 election.
Hawker retired in 2010, and the seat was won by Dan Tehan.
Candidates
- Therese Corbett (Australian Christians)
- Michael Barling (Labor)
- Tim Emanuelle (Greens)
- Chris Johnson (Sex Party)
- Craig Haberfield (Family First)
- Dan Tehan (Liberal)
- Bradley Ian Ferguson (Palmer United Party)
Assessment
Wannon should be safely retained by the Liberal Party at the upcoming election.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dan Tehan | LIB | 38,813 | 46.62 | -5.94 |
| Judith McNamara | ALP | 24,502 | 29.43 | -6.74 |
| Lisa Owen | GRN | 5,016 | 6.03 | -0.95 |
| James Purcell | IND | 4,652 | 5.59 | +5.59 |
| Katrina Rainsford | IND | 4,066 | 4.88 | +4.88 |
| Ralph Leutton | IND | 2,582 | 3.10 | +3.10 |
| Jahzeel Concepcion | FF | 1,795 | 2.16 | -2.13 |
| Allan Marsh | IND | 1,080 | 1.30 | +1.30 |
| Robert O’Brien | IND | 745 | 0.89 | +0.89 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Dan Tehan | LIB | 47,697 | 57.29 | -0.18 |
| Judith McNamara | ALP | 35,554 | 42.71 | +0.18 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. The three local government areas in the north-east of the seat have been grouped together. Polling places in the other five local government areas have been grouped along council boundaries.
The Liberal Party won a majority in five of the areas, varying from 53.7% in Glenelg to 68.4% in Corangamite. The ALP won a 54.7% majority in the north-east.
| Voter group | LIB 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| North-East | 45.35 | 16,233 | 26.27 |
| Warrnambool | 53.75 | 13,755 | 22.26 |
| Corangamite | 68.36 | 8,711 | 14.10 |
| Southern Grampians | 58.79 | 7,927 | 12.83 |
| Glenelg | 53.71 | 7,688 | 12.44 |
| Moyne | 61.25 | 7,469 | 12.09 |
| Other votes | 58.18 | 24,135 |
Catholic vote on coast once balanced grazier hinterland and made this marginal but they deserted Labor after split (1954 was sign of Catholic disaffection). Messy preselection & Hawker retirement didn’t hurt Libs that much.
Are the Central Goldfields towns normally THAT good for Labor, or is that a reflection of Labor’s strong performance in Bendigo?
If the latter, we should expect to see a decent swing in those areas now that they’re in a safe Coalition seat.
Central Goldfields towns are very strong Labor one of the poorest regions in Vic
politically very close to the premiers state seat……. the area appears to be changing…..is closer than I would have expected……
Even the Premier’s seat, South-West Coast, very very nearly went Labor in one of the Brackslides (within 1% of memory serves). Labor has done well to remain relatively in the contest in this part of the state. I would guess that Warrnambool students and remnants of a shipping industry in W’bool and Portland help, but it’s hard to see Labor ever having a shot in anything but the most comprehensive of election victories.
Labor have chosen 48 yr old Michael Barling this time round for Wannon. https://www.facebook.com/Vote1MichaelBarling
The Greens candidate is Tim Emanuelle
http://www.standard.net.au/story/1542104/green-and-keen-new-face-in-wannon-race/?cs=72
Michael Barling is an excellent candidate, much better than the incumbent who has failed to make an impression, unlike Hawker who will go down in history at the worst ever, most biased speaker, in the history of the parliament. People are begining to realise that after more than 50 years the conservatives have done nothing for western Victoria & that includes the stae polies.
It appears Michael Barling is campaigning seriously…..but a 7% swing is a big ask
I think this seat will be a much closer contest than people think. The redistribution has this seat at a 5.7 swing which is within the definition of ‘marginal’. The impact of this redistribution to include a strong Labor area is yet to be seen, and while most people think Dan Tehan is a nice bloke, he was dropped into the seat by the Libs and has never looked entirely comfortable pretending to be a Hamilton farmer. Michael Barling is a well-known local, with strong connections to the area, and presents a real competition comparable to that of Roy Reekie who took on Denis Napthine and, I believe, got within 250 votes for the state seat. As Antony would say, one to watch!
Spot on Mal!
Can some one tell me how much of the state seat of Ripon is in this seat?
80%
‘
The overlap look like less than half of Ripon / about a quarter of Wannon, by the looks of the VEC’s new post-redistribution map. Shires of Central Goldfields, Pyrenees and part of Ararat (including the town itself). Looks like Ripon is split between Wannon, Mallee and Ballarat (it moved north and east in the redistribution).
thank you
Margin is 5.7 but we need to be more marginal , Michael is doing a great service to us as the closer the better!
Sheepvention, a 2 day sheepfest in Hamilton finished yesterday. Conservatives made no impression, Gayle Tierney & yesterday Michael Barling, made a very good impression. Dan Tehan was in Warrnambool yesterday with Ms Nobody Julie Bishop, went to 2 local Liberal businesses, then went into an empty street to be greeted by…. no one! Typical Liberal stuff up! He should have been in Hamilton for its bigest event of the year!
Based off of the graph the 2PP in this electorate appears to be snaking it’s way slowly in to the marginal and perhaps even ALP winnable column.
Can anyone tell me why the Nats aren’t a factor in this electorate? Seems odd given to rurality of the electorate.
Balmain, its a “gentlemans” agreement, no Nats in Wannon! Bit strange seeing the Libs help the Nats to win Lowan!
Any one spotted the federal member or has he gone back to Bentliegh?
He only pops in for phot ops & 1 liners…
This is becoming more urban hence the slow improvement in Labor vote, but even Warrnambool is very much a country town with a strong conservative tradition, even the poor areas vote Lib unlike the poor areas of Bendigo. Labor couldn’t win Warrnambool-Portland state seat even in 2002.
Dont agree. Labor will win Warrnie, probably Hamilton & certainly Maryborough. Will that be enough to drag us into the 21st century? Probably not! We need another generation to die out probably! But, If we can make it marginal just watch the money flow in! People will see that the current Lib state Govt has denuded the area of money & that will make a difference.
“But the times they are a changing”, Dan Tehan has done little for the electorate , the electorate feels they have been taken for granted for too long , the only way we are going to be taken seriously is to make Wannon Marginal , it must be close so no matter who get to go to Canberra must work for the good citizens of Wannon. This is the electorates time to shine Labor running a Warnambool local is a good strategy to change the liberal stronghold , watch this space!
interesting this seat is changing hence a almost zero swing in 2010 with a good Alp candidate who has worked hard and a lib candidate who seems lacklustre…… maybe maybe maybe
Warnambool would be the biggest town in the electorate and Portland would have a strong Alp
vote…… if Labor could poll say 56 57 % there who knows.
Like “Sophie’s seat ” north east a coalition vote cannot be assumed
Barling is a very strong candidate son also captains One of the key Warnambool footy teams, Michael has teached for 17 years locally , he understands the commununities of Warnambool and
Wannon well,
All makes for a very close contest!
We can only hope people see the quality of Mick Barling against the “photo opp” of the incumbent. Dan Tehan has sat on his arse, only getting up to be photographed for the paper. Very little Fed money for Wannon. Promise for Warrnambool cancer centre a big con as we know the Libs will slash the health budget if they get in. Labor investing in education around the area as quickly as State Libs take it away.
Dream on people…… Not even the Pope could beat Dan the Man. Nothing to see here.
Indeed Cyril, there is nothing to see in Wannon. The reason for that is 55 years of Liberal neglect, people are begining to realise that Cyril. Cant wait to see the result.
THis seat and Indi could be the suprises of the election
Warrnambool is I think the key to this election in this seat
Mick, that is a big part of the scenario, no doubt. But Maryborough is worth about 1.5% to 2% in itself, for Labor. We have won Hamilton before, and If we manage to do that again come sept 7th things will indeed be interesting. People like Cyril sadly do nothing for the electorate! We need change, we MUST have change, we can not continue to be the “toenail” (Kennett’s words!) of the state for any longer. The state seat of Lowan has to shift too. We get nothing from the conservatives, never have.
Come on guys get real, and the ALP will do something for Wannon? It is a rural seat with a conservative base. Not a bad standard of living compared to some electroates. ALP too busy saving the furniture elsewhere as if they care about Wannon………
Hey Cyril , they better start caring as our numbers say Wannon will be Marginal after the 7th !
Well on the figures from 2010 the ALP will have to improve dramatically in the bool and Hamilton for the seat to be marginal. Cannot see that happening……You now have a Liberal premier in the bool…..ALP aren’t as popular as they were in 2010 and the past 3 years hasn’t produced anything to write home about. The redistribution isn’t big enough to make a dramatic impact……..If you want to live in a marginal electorate I suggest its time to move elsewhere……
LOL, Cyril, doesent Dennis have anything for you to do!
Only trying to place some reality into the debate Stafford hall. Look, its good to dream but I am only going on the facts and results from 2010…. I don’t see the shift being on here. Its a different situation to Indi where you have an unpopular local member and a strong indep who is going to get ALP preferences and give the seat a shake. Can’t see where the ALP votes are going to come from to make it marginal ……….open to suggestions ……… A strong ALP candidate from the bool may help a bit but is that enough to turn some of the booths that went heavyily to Libs last time?
Cyril, its your sort of thinking that has held Wannon back. The only money spent in Wannon has been Labor money. State wise, its even worse for the Fiberals. Napthine has never been a good local member & nearly lost his seat here. They hunted him out of Portland & he now pretends to liver in warrnambool, but is actually living in Melbourne closer to his mates. Since becoming prem Napthine has continued the lieberal lie. Continued to take large amounts of money out of the economy whilst handing out 2 shilling pieces to the crowds. The move is on…
Cyril, I dont know where you get your figures on popularity from, but try another vending machine, the one your using is wrong! And to say the last 3 years hasent produced anything, I think indicates your either a fiberal troll or you read the herald scum, or both!
Cheers, see you at the celebrations of a 4-8 seat Labor victory on sept 7th! If Wannon wants to join the party, please vote 1 Mick Barling, & 7 Dan, the do nothing man!
The truth does hurt doesn’t it Stafford Hall. Figures from Australian Electroal Commission site…….2010 election booth results. (Two Party preferred)….. You still can’t say locgically where the turn around of votes is coming from in Wannon…. Napthine will be judged at another time and place… The ALP record well from the last 3 years….. come on surely you aren’t going to try and defend that and hope that is your trump card to make Wannon marginal. NDIS on its own aint going to cut the mustard…….The people will decide…..4-8 seat majority to ALP…. well good luck with your projects….
Cyril, I have read all those figures, 3 years old. I’m not going to go over what Labor has done in the last 3 years, I dont have the room on this page. But nearly 500 pieces of legislation makes it the best parliament in history! Suffice to say, after the Howard years of middle upper class welfare, I’m not prepared to have another 3 years of the same under the nut case Abbott. I dont need to defend anything Labor has done, just as i’m sure you wont try and defend everything that the Fiberals have done, you know, recession, sacked workers, hospital beds closing, ambulances being used as hospital beds, failing roads, no infrastructure spending, & Napthaline flake wants to build an $8 billion tunnel! Spare me! The man is a nutter! And lets not get started on NSW, QLD, WA & the NT! If Abbott gets in, we are truely buggered! Nuff said, have a good election Cyril, & dont come crying to me if the fiberals get across the line!
Yes, 3 years old but its what we base our logic on for the upcoming election swings etc…. The government will be judged on its record by the people and really with the dysfunction and kaos and changing PMs when things get tough well…….enough said…… 15-20 seat coalition majority. Not bad considering you were looking at 30-40 under the previous PM……
Guys, please try to keep it civil and respectful, both of each other and of the parties you disagree with. You may feel that they aren’t the best party, and you may feel that their policies are inadequate, problematic, etc, but they are still worthy of respect because they put their hands up and put their entire lives in the public eye to do what they thought was right for the country. Doesn’t matter whether they’re Labor, Liberal, Greens, KAP, independent, or another minor party, they deserve at least the basic level of respect you show to your fellow human being.
No complaints from me Glen…. Bit of robust discussion never hurt anyone… I respect Stafford Halls position and its great he can express his opinion… Can’t see any mistreatment here either way….. I thought I was keeping it respectful and just putting my point across which originated about Wannon becoming marginal after the election……….
Yes I agree Glen we all believe that we all know which is the best party to lead Australia, The most important thing is respect and the fact we can freely acknowledge our opinion and vote for our beliefs spare a thought for the many others in the world who can’t for fear of their wellbeing and their families!
Glen, as we all know, respect has to be earned. I used to respect the conservative party’s out look, but havent been able to for about 10 years. Its been a gradual slide, picking up speed when they allowed Abbott to take over when it turned into a torrent!
I have no respect what so ever for them. And the LNP have no respect for the Mum’s and Dad’s of Australia. They only look to big business for their policies.
And I suppose I had better add, the LNP will even take $500 mill away from the car industry! And I suppose I had better add, its not just the Mum’s & the Dad’s they dont respect, its the Indigenous people’s, its the Gay community, In fact, its just about everyone except a small group who want to rule the world, people like Murdoch.
I admire the enthusiasm, but Stafford can you have some respect for the apostrophe?
According to Dan Napthine…oops Tehan…we poor folks in Wannon are better off to preference an invisible candidate (the Palmer Party’s Bradley Ferguson, who doesn’t appear to exist and, if he does, he lives in Queensland) rather than any of the other local candidates who are actually giving this seat a shot. I can only see this as a further example of how the Libs are nervous that Wannon will indeed slip further toward Labor after this election. It may be a two-election proposition, but the shift is happening as younger voters move into the frame and redrawn boundaries change the demographic.
Qld Observer… no way, that would be Dan Tehan the parachute man… And Mal, that is correct, it will return to Labor, one day! Sooner rather than later… apostrophe, exclamation mark… full stop
Greens candidate crowned winner of Wannon candidate debate
http://www.standard.net.au/story/1722396/greens-emanuelle-impresses-at-candidates-forum/?cs=383
I’ve just chucked a bunch of numbers into a spreadsheet, and I don’t see any evidence of Wannon trending towards Labor. At every election since 1990, the Libs have gotten between 10.16% and 12.61% better than their Vic state-wide 2pp. Wannon very closely tracks the Vic result (which has been trending towards Labor over the last two decades, since the whacking they got after the state bank collapse).
The latest redistribution (1.6% in Labor’s favour) should be more-or-less cancelled out by Tehan’s sophomore swing. Add on a general swing to the Libs (Bludgertrack reckons 4.7% at the moment), and Wannon’s 2013 margin should be well above 10%.
Thats what I would have thought would be more accurate Bird of Paradise. Unless Wannon is an out there electroate ( as you’ve described ) there is no way its going to buck the trend. Even if the ALP candidate is strong in the bool he is still the ALP candidate and the “good bloke act” does have its limitations……