ALP 17.1%
Incumbent MP
Tanya Plibersek, since 1998.
Geography
Inner suburbs of Sydney. Sydney covers most of the City of Sydney and parts of the Leichhardt council area. The seat covers the Sydney CBD, Pyrmont, Ultimo, Surry Hills, Redfern, Waterloo, Alexandria, Erskineville, Glebe, parts of Newtown, and the southern parts of the City of Sydney, extending as far south as Rosebery.
The seat also covers Annandale and the Balmain peninsula, including the suburb of Rozelle. Sydney does not cover eastern parts of the City of Sydney such as Kings Cross and Darlinghurst, which are included in Wentworth.
History
Sydney was created for the 1969 election by the merger of the seats of East Sydney and West Sydney, which had existed since federation.
Sydney has been held by the ALP ever since its creation, and its predecessors had almost always been held by Labor.
West Sydney (which, despite its name, actually covered inner city suburbs like Darling Harbour and Pyrmont) always elected a Labor MP, although it was briefly held by a conservative party from 1916 to 1917, as its first MP was Billy Hughes, who as Prime Minister left the ALP and formed the Nationalist party. He proceeded to move to a different seat at the 1917 election, and the ALP held West Sydney from 1917 until its abolition, although Jack Beasley, who held the seat for eighteen years, left the ALP to join a Lang Labor breakaway party on two occasions in the 1930s and 1940s.
The seat of East Sydney was first held by George Reid, a former NSW premier and leader of the Free Trade party, from 1901 to 1909, when he retired. John West (ALP) won the seat in 1910 and held it until his death in February 1931. The ensuing by-election was won by Eddie Ward, who left the ALP later that year when he was one of a number of supporters of NSW Labor leader Jack Lang to cross the floor and bring down the Scullin government.
East Sydney was won at the 1931 election by John Clasby (UAP) who benefited from a split Labor vote, with the two Labor parties gaining 55% of the primary vote but enough preferences from the official ALP leaking to Clasby to see Ward lose. Clasby died a month later without taking his seat and Ward won back the seat at a January 1932 by-election, less than a year after he had previously won the seat at a by-election. Ward returned to the ALP in 1936 and the ALP held the seat from then until its abolition in 1969.
The new seat of Sydney was first won in 1969 by Jim Cope. Cope had previously held the seats of Cook and Watson before their abolitions. Neither seats have any connection to the modern seats with those names. Both Cook and Watson had covered parts of South Sydney now covered by Sydney. Cope had won Cook at a 1955 by-election following the death of the previous member, but the seat was abolished at the general election in the same year. Cope then held Watson from 1955 until it too was abolished in 1969, at which point he moved to the new seat of Sydney.
Cope held Sydney until 1975, and served as Speaker of the House of Representatives from 1973 until a dispute with the Whitlam government saw him resign in protest in 1975.
Cope was succeeded in 1975 by Leslie McMahon (ALP), who served until he was defeated for preselection before the 1983 election.
The seat was won in 1983 by Peter Baldwin, previously a Member of the Legislative Council who had become a symbol of the conflict between the Left and Right within the ALP in the Inner West in 1980 when he was brutally bashed in his home. Baldwin served as a federal minister from 1990 to 1996 and retired at the 1998 election.
The seat has been held since 1998 by Tanya Plibersek, who has served as a minister since the 2007 election. Plibersek served as Housing Minister in the first term, then as Minister for Human Services from 2010 until 2011, and as Health Minister since 2011.
The seat has always been considered a very safe Labor seat according to the two-party-preferred vote, but has recently become one of the strongest Greens seats in the country. The seat of Sydney has seen votes for the Greens of over 20% at the last three elections, and was the top-polling seat for the Greens at the 2004 election.
Candidates
- Jane Ward (Independent)
- Sean O’Connor (Liberal)
- Peter Boyle (Socialist Alliance)
- Lesley Mason (Christian Democratic Party)
- Joanna Rzetelski (Independent)
- Timothy Daniel Kelly (Palmer United Party)
- Leah Gartner (Bullet Train For Australia)
- Dianne Hiles (Greens)
- Tanya Plibersek (Labor)
Assessment
Sydney’s 17.1% margin is misleading, as the main competition to Labor comes from the Greens, not from the Liberal Party. If the Greens were to overtake the Liberal Party, and preference flows from the Liberal Party were similar to those in Melbourne and Grayndler, than the Greens would be very close to winning.
Despite these underlying strong conditions for the Greens, it’s unlikely to happen in 2013. Even if the Greens’ vote goes up, which is possible, the Greens are unlikely to close the 4.35% gap with the Liberal Party in circumstances where the Liberals should also gain a solid swing.
The decision of the Liberal Party to preference the ALP ahead of the Greens has closed any window of opportunity for the Greens to win.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 34,362 | 43.29 | -5.92 |
| Gordon Weiss | LIB | 22,307 | 28.10 | +1.20 |
| Tony Hickey | GRN | 18,852 | 23.75 | +3.44 |
| Brett Paterson | DEM | 1,256 | 1.58 | +0.48 |
| Jane Ward | IND | 1,226 | 1.54 | +0.30 |
| Christopher Owen | SEC | 718 | 0.90 | +0.90 |
| Denis Doherty | COM | 656 | 0.83 | +0.83 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tanya Plibersek | ALP | 53,235 | 67.07 | -2.25 |
| Gordon Weiss | LIB | 26,142 | 32.93 | +2.25 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas, based on the key suburbs: Balmain, Annandale-Glebe, Newtown-Erskineville, with the remainder divided into Inner Sydney and South Sydney.
The ALP topped the poll in all five areas, varying from 41% in Inner Sydney to 47.4% in South Sydney. The Liberal vote varied from 16.5% in Newtown-Erskineville to 32.1% in Inner Sydney. The Greens vote varied from 18.8% in South Sydney to 34.8% in Newtown-Erskineville.
| Voter group | GRN % | LIB % | ALP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Inner Sydney | 22.07 | 32.05 | 41.01 | 16,273 | 20.50 |
| South Sydney | 18.76 | 29.23 | 47.37 | 11,597 | 14.61 |
| Annandale-Glebe | 25.31 | 23.12 | 46.85 | 11,015 | 13.88 |
| Balmain | 22.08 | 31.27 | 42.79 | 10,348 | 13.04 |
| Newtown-Erskineville | 34.81 | 16.50 | 43.97 | 7,878 | 9.92 |
| Other votes | 23.66 | 29.73 | 41.06 | 22,266 | 28.05 |
Unlike Grayndler, Sydney still has some pockets where the Liberal vote is quite strong (inner city apartments, etc), so I can’t see the Greens winning anytime soon. I doubt they’ll even finish second any time soon…….
Yes, I question the comment, “the main competition to Labor comes from the Greens, not from the Liberal Party.” This overlooks the fact that the Liberals have never been out-polled by the Greens in this seat. As is stated later on in the profile, 2013 won’t be a year where the Greens break this record.
It will be interesting to see if the Liberals can win some booths here this year. In 2010, they missed out on winning Millers Point by just 2 votes (TPP). A uniform swing of 4% would net Pyrmont, Rosebery and Sydney Town Hall as well. Less likely here, but once over 7% Lord Howe Island and Zetland South come into play. Over 8%, Rosebery West. At 10%, Bald Rock and Balmain… (!)
Sydney, like Grayndler and Melbourne, are areas with a large proportion of people who vote Green, and are held (or was held previously in Melbourne) by the ALP.
As long as the Liberal Party come second in Sydney, Greens preferences will flow overwhelmingly to Labor and ensure a very large 2PP margin.
This was also true in Grayndler and Batman until 2010, and in Melbourne until 2007.
The Liberal Party are no competition for the Labor Party in this area – they don’t come close to reaching the vote they would need to win – they would need close to 50% of the primary vote due to unfavourable preferences.
On the other hand, Liberal voters (and the party itself) have been much more willing to preference the Greens in Sydney and in other similar seats in the past, and if the Greens poll ahead of Liberal the margin is usually less than 10%.
We saw in Grayndler and Melbourne that a seat that was safe on paper ended up with a Labor margin of less than 5% after swapping of the second and third candidates in 2010 and 2007 respectively. If the same happened in Sydney, the margin would likely be similar.
Of course, the Liberal Party may choose to preference the ALP ahead of the Greens and this would leave the Greens further away from winning, but still closer than if the Liberals come second. I don’t think the preference decision is locked in yet.
I don’t think any of these long-term underlying conditions contradicts my later statement that, in current circumstances, this breakthrough is unlikely to happen at this election. However we now have three seats similar to Sydney where a similar breakthrough has happened at the last two elections, with a total transformation of the seat’s official margin from very safe to marginal.
A quick internet search reveals that on April 3 the Socialist Alliance pre-selected their national co-convenor, Peter Boyle, as candidate for Sydney. That takes us to four candidates so far.
Ben, you’re underestimating the growth in Liberal support: in 2010 there was one Lib Councillor in Leichardt, and 1 in Sydney City; there are now 4 in Leichardt and 2 in Sydney; the Libs came very close to winning Balmain for the first time at the state election, and performed credibly in Sydney, where Clover Moore has avoided being tarnished by the corruption scandals around Labor.
I’d expect a slight rise in the Green vote overall, and a significant rise in the Liberal vote, partly from national issues; partly from the stench surrounding NSW Labor; partly because TP is a low profile “job for life” pol; and in good measure because the Libs are building strength and profile in hitherto weak areas like Surry Hills and Alexandria. I don’t see the Liberals improving much in Glebe/Annandale, and think there might be a relatively weaker performance in Balmain/Birchgrove (this was the area worked heavily by Gordon Weiss, the Leichardt councillor, in the 2010 election) but expect significant improvements elsewhere in the seat.
If Labor hold the seat, it is likely to be on Green preferences.
I’m sure the Liberal vote will go up, but Sydney includes lots of areas very unfavourable to the Liberals. Sure they may do well in the CBD, Pyrmont, Ultimo and Balmain but I doubt they will get very far in South Sydney or that area.
Their best areas in Balmain and Sydney in 2011 are not contained in this seat (Paddington and Haberfield).
The Liberal vote in inner Sydney is likely to increase over time through development and demographic change, as has been happening.
I live in this electorate, I agree with Sacha, over the years there has been a demographic change and more family oriented Liberal voters have moved in, at least in the area I live in. I don’t think the Greens are Labor’s competition, the Liberals will increase their vote in the area, while both Labor and the Greens will decrease.
The large new developments (e.g. Barangaroo, Chippendale) point to an increase in the Liberal vote in inner Sydney. It seems likely the Liberal vote in Balmain will not decrease. The Greens and Liberal vote will probably increase in Redfern/Waterloo (the Greens vote has been increasing there) and Zetland/Green Square with ongoing development in those areas. This suggests the seat will be a Labor/Liberal contest for the foreseeable future.
It is worth remembering that, as at state level, the seat is growing fairly rapidly, and in its “core” areas.
Whether it becomes a more Lib/Lab seat in future will depend on the areas that come out: if Balmain is excised it is more likely to be Green/Lib; but if Newtown and Marrickville are moved into Grayndler, it is much more Lib/Lab. My thinking is that it will be the southern areas that are cut – which means losses for all three parties, but with a tendency to focus on areas Sacha Blumen has rightly suggested are more Lib/Lab territory. The best hope for the Greens (overall) would be for Grayndler to absorb Newtown and Marrickville, and lose some of the more Liberal areas to its north.
Oops, typoc … if Balmain is excised, it is more likely to be Green/Lab …
Ben Raue
Sorry,Most of my last post on Wentworth ,was actually concerned more with Sydney. This seat is vulnerable to the Greens. Other posters seem to miss the point that if the Greens come 2nd the ALP loses. It is not like Grayndler where the Lib preferences are insufficient. Post 2016 the re-distrbution effects will be critical.
That’s assuming the Libs preference the Greens
I think the Greens are well on the downward slide. Thank goodness. According to the latest polls, they have only a third of their voter base left. If my memory serves me correct, didn’t they do very badly at the Council elections.?
QO & Shirl
Yes making that assumption.
The Greens may be on a downward slide elsewhere, but probably not in the inner city. They could just as easily INCREASE their vote here!!!. I mean bear in mind these folk do have a very, “DIFFERENT” (I’M GOING TO BE POLITE!!) view , of well:- everything.!!!
Also i made the point that an independent with good progressive/ green credentials. Clover Moore would walk in, or say the new state member (for Sydney, or Balmain) ,in a few years time…
@ winediamond. I didn’t spend a good part of a year in the Newtown/Marrickville area with all the BDS action there not to realise “these folk do have a very, “DIFFERENT” (I’M GOING TO BE POLITE!!) view , of well:- everything.!!!” In saying that look what happened to Marrickville Council at the local level. Annihilated. The Libs even took 2 of the Greens seats.
The Greens lost one out of five seats in Marrickville at the council election. Hardly annihilated. The Liberals gained one seat. The other Liberal won an independent seat.
What polls say that the Greens have dropped to one third of their previous vote? Most polls I see on average have the Greens down, but only slightly.
Well Ben, to be fair, Pollbludger seems to think the Greens are down about 25% since the last election and it my view that polls tend to overstate support for the minor parties and ‘others’. I have actually predicted the Greens will poll less than 9% at the next election and could well be below 8.5%. Just my view from what I have seen.
I believe Greens supporters should hope Gillard remains PM because if Rudd gets the gig, then I reckon the Green primary vote would fall further.
Ben I think it was a poll that Andrew Bolt posted. I think
The Greens had control of Marrickville with the deal they did with Labour. I was very involved with that fiasco and know more than I am at liberty to divulge, as much as I’d like to
@DB. I don’t think anything you said contradicted what I said. The polls do indicate the Greens vote is down, but I think the margin of error makes it hard to say how much of a decline. You’re also right that polls have a tendency to over-estimate the Greens vote, but my point remains that this is very different to the Greens being reduced to one-third of the previous vote.
Shirl, if you actually knew anything about Marrickville Council you would know that Labor and the Greens have never shared “control” through any “deals”. The two parties have always been in opposition. The Greens have only had the mayoralty twice since the ALP lost their majority in March 2004: never with the support of the ALP. The ALP and their conservative independent allies have held “control” of the council for more time than the Greens.
I believe the Greens support towards the cities will remain firm for the most part. I think it will be the areas outside of their strong polling areas that will suffer. It will be interesting to see how many Senate quotas the Greens are able to obtain in this election.
Many Green voters are not committed leftists, many in 2010 wanted to turn back the boats a la Abbott. Not surprising in context of a Liberal surge that Green vote would fall, but Greens will probably have larger share of the total left vote than in 2010.
Tanya Plibersek is one of the better ALP MP’s and she in pro Palestine which I like too
A. Jackson of M Park
If it is accepted that the ALPs obsession with attacking Abbott is a blunder, then what does that say about the leading perpetrators???. Plibersek is a leader of the “Handbag hit squad”. An ugly look for sure, & a proven turn off for male voters. The division, & prejudice this govt, & it’s members have created is disgusting. (one of) The purposes of govt is to bring people together, & to govern for all australians, not just some. Plibersek is nothing more than a revolting political animal, who will do, & say anything for the slightest political (or presumably any other) advantage.
winediamond – I dislike people who hide behind a screen name as I think they are cowards. Incidentally I am not an ALP voter in Melbourne Ports where I live. Michael Danby MHR is always put last on the ballot paper as he is a lazy and incompetent.
Ben,in answer to your last point. The Greens and Labour sure did make a deal at Marrickville. A big one. I cannot say more.
@ Adrian Jackson of Middle Park Vic
I don’t really want to get into international politics here, but just answer one question please.
You say you are “pro Palestine”, which part of traditional Palestine are you referring to?
East or West of the River Jordan.
Ben I apologise for going off topic, you are welcome to delete this comment if you see fit.
Roman Palestine – all of it.
A Jackson
Some of us are not free (from consequence) to put our name out on media, for reasons ,& concerns,not apparent to others. If you feel so inclined to make arbitrary (& offensive) judgements without regard to fact, go ahead.
BTW i remember your previous statements about Danby, & needed no reminder.
Yawn – bye bye
Shirl, apparently he was expelled from the Liberal party because he banned Americans and Israelis from his pub. Nuff said.
morgieb what are you talking about?
It was to the pro-Palestine thing. Misread the post though.
Troy Wilkie is the Palmer United Party candidate here
http://palmerunited.com/2013/06/clive-palmer-announces-troy-wilkie-as-palmer-united-party-candidate-for-sydney/
morgieb – Actually I was suspended for 12 months 10 years ago but I did not rejoin the Liberals. I banned Yanks from my B&B as a protest against the murderous invasion of Iraq while the Israelis are banned because of their fascist mistreatment of the Palestinians.
I lifted the ban on the Yanks when Obama withdrew the troops from Iraq but the Israeli ban is still on. That said I have never received a booking request from Israel ever in 18 years funnung my tax minimisation B&B but I did have a local Jewish man book in a few years ago. Its not a Jewish thing: its about Israeli fascist zionism (a political movement).
I only came here because of the post about the most number of comments in various electorates – and Sydney is close to where I live (inner west). Though I see someone has brought Palestine up… It’s a wonder there aren’t 1036 comments rather that 36!
Anyway, just doing my bit for the Ben’s WordPress stats. I don’t really have anything intelligent to say. Except that I quite liked Tanya (until last Monday’s Q&A)
Yes Q & A was great last Monday (01 Jul 13) and Tanya was funny with her verbal debate with Sophie Mirabilla. Sophie was a good campaigner in Victoria (against those Republican clowns Tim Costello, Peter Costello and Eddy MacGuire) for ACM 15 years ago but she has tuned into a neo- fascist on a number of issues after entering Parliament.
Another candidate has joined the field – up to seven candidates now, I believe: The Christian Democratic Party has endorsed Lesley Mason, “GM of the Mason Picture Co. (Advertising & Video Production)” for Sydney. The CDP contested Sydney for the first time in 2007, achieving 0.95%; their predecessor organisation the CTA ran once, in 1996, for a 0.65% result. I imagine that in 2013 they will struggle to break through the 1% barrier!
Citizens Electoral Councils candidate Adrian Ford has contested Sydney twice before, and achieved last place on both occasions: 0.18% in 2004, and 0.24% in 2007. Incidentally, those are not the worst results in the history of the seat: on two occasions (1996 and 1998) an independent candidate has finished with 0.15% of the vote.
It appears as though the Australian Democrats are gearing up to announce a candidate for Sydney, which would bring the total of announced candidates to eight. This would be a big field for Sydney: eight candidates was last achieved in 2004, and has only been exceeded twice – 10 candidates in 1996, and 11 candidates in 1998.
The Australian Democrats have contested Sydney at every election since they were founded in 1977. During the 1980s they consistently achieved 7%-8% of the vote. Their level of support was much more volatile in the 1990s, although they still outpolled the Greens as late as 1998.
The Australian Democrats best results in Sydney were 12.8% in 1990, and 10.9% in 2001, although those days seem long gone now – their average result in the last three elections here was 1.6%. My tip for this year is that, with a good candidate and a decent campaign, they might be able to push past 2%.
If polls suggesting a decline for the Greens are correct, and applicable in Sydney, more ex-Greens (of an age to remember Ridgeway / Haines / Chipp!) might park their votes with the Dems.
I wonder why Jane Ward isn’t standing? It will the first (State, Fed or local) election she has missed for as long as I can remember…
The ALP chose this electorate for their Caucus meeting yesterday – curious as Greens and (more importantly) Liberal voters way outnumber Labor now in Balmain. I was puzzled by that, until I saw the TV news of the Greens and Socialist Alliance chanters outside. The ALP couldn’t have been happier with the footage.
Developments on asylum policy are likely to firm up the Green vote to slightly under their percentage at the last election in the House of Reps. Kevin Rudd, by raising the ALP vote generally and alienating the left of the ALP on asylum policy is I think likely to succeed in ensuring the Greens return 3 Senators, perhaps even four, an outcome that looked highly unlikely a few weeks ago. Not what he intended but there you go
Actually Coco Bunter, if you look at the map you’ll see that the Labor vote comfortably outpolls both the Libs and Greens in Balmain.
You are right PJ, I meant the combined Greens/Liberal vote (carelessly expressed) outpolling Labor. In NSW elections, a Greens vote doesn’t necessarily go any further, which makes it anti-Labor. From memory the Libs do score first place in one Balmain booth (more to come). No doubt Ben will correct me if I’m wrong.
Combined Greens/Liberal vote has beaten the ALP vote for a while though?
Morgieb
Right. However as iv’e pointed out previously, for the green’s vote to be in any way relevant, they need to outpoll the libs, & receive their preferences. BTW I DO WANT THIS TO HAPPEN.
I will miss Jane Ward (if she doesn’t appaer on the ballot). When is the cut-off date for candidates? Surely she hasn’t forgotten?
Nominations close at Noon 15 Aug 13. Its on the AEC website
The CDP candidate here is remarkably young and funky looking for a Nile candidate. I wonder if she’s the first right-wing candidate with pink hair? (I’m sure there have been Sex Party candidates, if not Green/Labor ones).
Sydney will be Labor for as long as the popular Ms Plibersek is the candidate.