ALP 1.0%
Incumbent MP
Deborah O’Neill, since 2010.
Geography
Robertson covers the southern half of the Central Coast. It covers most of Gosford LGA, with the exception of a few suburbs on the border with Wyong LGA including Wamberal, Matcham, Holgate and Mt Elliot. Major centres in the electorate include Gosford, Erina, Terrigal, Woy Woy and Umina.
History
Robertson was first created in 1900 for the first federal election in 1901. The seat originally was an inland seat particularly covering Dubbo and Wellington and the Upper Hunter. It quickly moved towards the Central Coast, which it first covered in 1913.
The seat continued to shift and at one point also covered the coast to the north of Newcastle, before firmly settling on the Central Coast in 1974. The 1984 redistribution saw the seat take its current shape covering the southern half of the Central Coast.
For most of its history the seat was dominated by conservative MPs before mostly supporting the ALP over the last forty years. The seat was held by Henry Willis who won it for the Free Trade Party and maintained his hold until he lost it in 1910 to William Johnson of the ALP. Johnson only managed to hold the seat for one term, and was the only Labor member for the seat before the Second World War. He was succeeded by William Fleming of the Liberals, who proceeded to represent the Nationalists and joined the newly-formed Country Party in 1921. He ran for the seat as a Country Party candidate in 1922 and came third, with Sydney Gardner of the Nationalist Party holding the seat. Gardner maintained the seat until 1940, joining the United Australia Party in 1931.
At the 1940 election Gardner was one of two UAP candidates to run in Robertson, and came third on primary votes, and the other UAP candidate, Eric Spooner, won the seat on Gardner’s preferences in a close race with the ALP. Thomas Williams of the ALP won the seat in 1943 and held it until 1949, when he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Roger Dean. Dean held the seat until he resigned in 1964 to become Administrator of the Northern Territory. His successor, William Bridges-Maxwell, won a by-election and was reelected in 1966 before being defeated by the ALP’s Barry Cohen in 1969.
Cohen held the seat for 21 years, serving as a minister from 1983 to 1987 in the Hawke government before retiring in 1990. He was succeeded by Frank Walker, who had been a minister in the state government before losing his seat in the 1988 state election. Walker served as a minister in the second Keating government from 1993 to 1996 before losing his seat to Jim Lloyd of the Liberal Party.
Lloyd held the seat for the entire length of the Howard government. He saw off Belinda Neal in 1998, when she resigned from the Senate to run for the seat. Lloyd was a minister from July 2004 until he lost his seat to Neal at the 2007 election. The seat was the ALP’s most marginal victory at the 2007 election, with Neal winning by 184 votes.
Belinda Neal was a controversial MP, and she lost preselection in 2010 to Deb O’Neill. O’Neill retained the seat for the ALP with an increased margin.
Candidates
- Jake Cassar (Independent)
- Paul Sheeran (Democratic Labour Party)
- Lucy Wicks (Liberal)
- Steven Whitaker (Palmer United Party)
- Holly Beecham (Christian Democratic Party)
- Lawrie Mckinna (Independent)
- Kate da Costa (Greens)
- Douglas McFarland (Australian Independents)
- Deborah O’Neill (Labor)
Assessment
Robertson was one of the few seats in New South Wales where Labor gained ground in 2010. It’s difficult to see how either party wins in 2013 without winning Robertson, and it will be a key seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Darren Jameson | LIB | 37,151 | 43.53 | -2.11 |
| Deborah O’Neill | ALP | 33,935 | 39.76 | -3.15 |
| Peter Freewater | GRN | 7,671 | 8.99 | +1.79 |
| Graham Freemantle | CDP | 1,544 | 1.81 | -0.40 |
| Melissa Batten | IND | 1,513 | 1.77 | +1.77 |
| Jake Cassar | IND | 1,077 | 1.26 | +1.26 |
| Michael Jakob | FF | 749 | 0.88 | +0.07 |
| Nicole Beiger | LDP | 581 | 0.68 | +0.68 |
| Don Parkes | ON | 568 | 0.67 | -0.39 |
| Michelle Meares | IND | 552 | 0.65 | +0.65 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Deborah O’Neill | ALP | 43,520 | 51.00 | +0.91 |
| Darren Jameson | LIB | 41,821 | 49.00 | -0.91 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas.
Most booths are in the eastern part of the seat near the coast, and these have been divided between the three main centres of Gosford, Erina and Woy Woy. The remainder of booths in the sparsely-populated west have been grouped together as “West”.
The ALP won a majority of the vote in Woy Woy and Gosford, while the Liberal Party won a majority in Erina and the West.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP% | Total votes | % of votes |
| Erina | 8.55 | 47.69 | 23,807 | 27.90 |
| Woy Woy | 9.07 | 56.41 | 20,523 | 24.05 |
| Gosford | 9.35 | 53.12 | 17,622 | 20.65 |
| West | 11.19 | 42.61 | 1,868 | 2.19 |
| Other votes | 8.90 | 48.47 | 21,521 | 25.22 |
From the look of it, Neal’s loss of preselection in 2010 was the best thing that happened to Labor in Robertson, as the rest of the country largely swung against Labor but this seat went the other way.
I saw a recent DAILY TELEGRAPH story in which the Liberals were tipped to have a struggle against O’Neill. And I recall reports of the Liberals having trouble among the grassroots after candidates in both this seat and neighbouring Dobell were imposed on them.
If O’Neill somehow holds this seat, unless the poll predictions of a Labor routing across the nation change between now and September, she’ll be a hero among Labor people.
I don’t believe Labor can hold this but O’Neill will have a sophomore surge. The internal polling I’ve seen on the Central Coast would not give much hope for Labor, albeit, it is probably not quite as bad as some outer metropolitan Sydney seats.
Paul Sheeran has been selected to run in Robertson for the DLP.
I wish him all the best and hope that Robertson can benefit with his experience.
http://www.dlp.org.au/candidate-for-robertson-paul-sheeran/
This will come down to the wire, Deb is still popular in the area
Labor is done in this electorate no contest.
A young fellow, well actually I don’t know how old he is, but he seems like a nice young fellow, called Douglas McFarland is the Australian Independents candidate for Robertson.
Please note my name only has one “T” in Whitaker. Palmer United candidate for Robertson.
DB
Looking at this seat i struggle to see how Craig Thompson’s dramas would not have a big effect. The central coast is 1 area. It is still a mystery as to how the libs failed to pick this up in 2010. How could the Belinda Neil saga not have been the deciding factor??
Hi – it’s often tricky to tell when names are printed in caps only, but my surname is “da Costa”, thanks – Kate, Greens candidate for Robertson
Lucy Wicks has been running a very strong campaign here and I expect her to get up here. This seat will be won or lost in Woy Woy, with many of the voters around there being either retirees or young families.
if thats the case then thats good for labor. Is generally an area where people aren’t engaged and can be put off by major campaigns. I expect Deb to get a surge here and hold onto the seat
Lawrie McKinna running as an Independent as “team Central Coast” with Nathan Bracken in Dobell. Rumor has it that both are expected to preference the Coalition on how to vote cards.
Media coverage of that, also posted on Dobell page. Gosford Mayor Lawrie McKinna running as independent backed by John Singleton
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/central-coast/millionaire-john-singleton-to-fund-lawrie-mckinna-and-nathan-bracken-as-independents-in-robertson-and-dobell/story-fngr8h0p-1226695292365
“Rumours” are absolute crap, they are preferencing the best party with the best plans for the coast, which neither coalition candidate has.
Observer – Singleton owns 2GB. 2GB is pro-Coalition with the most successful talkback hosts in history. I doubt very much that Singleton is going to allow either to preference Labor. A source has told me that both will preference the Coalition. Let’s wait and see.
“a source”. Allan Jones has endorsed the labor candidate for Barton. 2GB isn’t pro labor but its not as anti-labor as you make it appear and knowing the 2 candidates they will preference the better party for the coast and that is labor
Just got a call from a mate in a polling company, says labor ahead here by a reasonable margin
Observer, don’t blame me. I am reliably informed that both will preference the Coalition. If my sources are incorrect I stand corrected, but I must say that your commentary towards me is rather pelulant, but not unexpected.
I will be highly surprised if either candidate preferences the ALP.
Observer, internal polling indicating a close Coalition gain with primary support at 45%.
Thats pretty much what the company got however, greens increasing their vote here and labor. Plus on the Q of how commited are you of voting this way on election day: 29% for the libs say uncommited as opposed to 10% for the ALP
Observer I hope your wrong! But then again the CC does have a lot of welfare recipients. The social demigraphics does play well into Labor’s hands with all their spending.
Observer, if the Liberals get 45% as you say (which means our sources are both saying the same thing) then I cannot see the ALP winning the seat. The Greens are not increasing their vote here from what I have seen and given the number of candidates, the Coalition will get at least 50% of preferences other than the Greens.
Look DB my issue is that the reason you are my favourite contributor is because you have internal polling but most of the time you just say coalition has this in the bag, you never give an exact figure which make me start thinking, is this polling actually true or made up. I’d like to see actual numbers to give credibility to your claims
Well actually DB on the poll i was told about, based on allocated preferences, Labor leads 53/47
Many Coalition-aligned candidates tend to run as Independents for NSW local government – is this the case with Mr McKinna?
Observer – there is a clear reason I am not providing the exact numbers so close to the election now. I’m not giving our opponent trolls a heads-up.
But you do realise that the ALP does do polling in every Key seat constantly, I don’t think Dastyari hangs around here to get polling numbers, he probably commissions his own
I’m getting sick of DB being baited when you don’t like what he has to say. He doesn’t seem very partisan at all. What he says lines up with what I have been hearing and what the publically released polling is stating, which is a stark contrast to Observer’s posts where Labor seems to always be ahead despite what every other reliable source is saying.
This is the only poll I have seen and have shared QO. In Macquarie I shared what a campaigner told me, in Herbert I said what someone I know working on that campaign said based on alocated preferences. Find these posts where I say labor is ahead QO, wheter you want to accept the fact that a seat DB says is gone today may not go on election day is up to you, but realistically QO if you don’t want to accept what I say fine but don’t you dare try and give my sources less cred, that is just so rude and so unrealisitc if you think one seat is gone already
QO – thank you. And ditto. PS: I can put up with baiting from lightweights.
so DB what makes you think your sources are more credible then mine? Yours are party affiliated mine are actually from the independent polling companies. his is proven when you say not looking good for labor and within reach for the coalition, are these the same margins?
Ok Observer – Bennelong, Longman, Greenway, Lindsay for starters off the top of my head.
well QO
Greenway-DB said it himself that it was only 52/48, margin error for individual seats are much higher then nation wide polling,
Lindsay- Yes recently because theres an article in the Australian that says polling at the start of the campaign was actually 51/49 to the libs which i pointed out
Longman- I do think that labor will win this because its very marginal, its in QLD, Beattie would be here if they didn’t think they could win it, the MP is too young and that would put people off.
Bennelong- Rudd wouldn’t be there if labor didnt think it was winnable. And the quality of candidates is labors big plus when considering he is Asian, he has been asked to run for the libs and is in business himself and actually lives in the electorate
And I’m sorry if i find it hard to believe that when this morning it was rumoured the two central coast candidates were just rumoured and then when they are announced all of a sudden DB is able to say that the libs will be getting there preferences claimed by a source. That is party affiliation playing its role
Arguing about internal polling is really pointless, even more so getting upset about anothers asserted numbers. A campaigns tactical discussion would be more interesting to the casual observer.
I do think that if anyone has access to internal numbers and you post the assertion that ‘Party X is ahead’ then with respect one really should state the numbers, the source and ideally the date of the polling. However, I also understand that some may not wish to engage in full disclosure of internal polling for obvious reasons.
I treat most internal polling as suspect until it accords with public released, reputable specific seat polling. It is just extra info which helps to make up the mosaic of an impression of what we think is going in the electorate. Most of what we are all doing here is speculation at best given that only one poll really counts. We should all remember that.
Considering Mckinna supports NBN and opposes the liberals plan, not great for the libs in regards to preferencing especially since NBN is a huge investment on the coast
Not good for the ALP if accurate. I do wonder if the result is ‘skewed’ to one seat more than the other?
#Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson 2 Party Preferred: ALP 46 LIB 54 #ausvotes
#Newspoll Seats of Dobell & Robertson Primary Votes: ALP 35 LIB 50 #ausvotes
“Labor support in the seats of Robertson and Dobell has fallen seven percentage points since the 2010 election on a two-party-preferred basis, which would put Liberal MPs into both seats. ”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/election-2013/rudd-alert-alp-facing-rout-in-its-key-marginals/story-fn9qr68y-1226698083256
Small sample but continues to confirm a swing to the Coaltion in this election is more likely than not. From my pespective, I believe the Coalition will win Robertson. Not entirely sure on Dobell.
Separately, note my comment from 6 April, which I repost here:
“I don’t believe Labor can hold this but O’Neill will have a sophomore surge. The internal polling I’ve seen on the Central Coast would not give much hope for Labor, albeit, it is probably not quite as bad as some outer metropolitan Sydney seats”.
This also seems to be the conclusions from the Lonergan (Lindsay) and Newspolls (Dobell and Robertson) out today.
KB has this insight;
“Update: the sample size for Robertson/Dobell is 505 respondents, which does leave a great amount of room for doubt about whether Labor is actually cactus in both of these seats, even assuming its position doesn’t improve. After all Labor’s result in the best of the two (whichever that is) would be at worst 46 off a sample of c. 252, which translates to a minimum 10% chance of being ahead, and hence a minimum 19% chance that Labor is currently ahead in at least one of the two seats. If the results are assumed to be less even than 46 apiece, that chance goes up. Still, it is much better not to be polling such results than to be polling them. “
Yappo – agree but would add this: in isolation it doesn’t mean much, but when combined with polls in other seats showing much the same thing or worse it adds to the flavour and feeling that this Government is cactus. We just don’t by how much at this point. Tomorrow should be insightful.
I still think that the Liberals will win this seat. But the presence of the local mayor, backed by Singo, at a time when Singo’s cash cow (by the name of Jones) is so unashamedly backing the Liberal Party and Abbott, does set the cat amongst the pigeons, albeit a little. How deliciously ironic it’d be if Singo’s man actually got up and won – how Singo and Jones would behave towards each other is enough to make some people want to be flies on the wall in their Pyrmont castle! (Yeah, I know, it’s just a dream – not gonna happen, sunshine.)
I dont think that Singo’s puppets will do that well. Often mayors under perform dramatically at federal or state elections. I think with NBN, major health funding this seat isn’t out of reach for labor and I think fewer candidates will play a role and i dont think the greens vote will drop here. I know the newspoll result wasn’t good but this is one area where labor has delivered and the region has really benefited from the government so will be close but Deb should do well
I also hear that young libs have to campaign here because the older members don’t llke Wicks and campaign in Dobell. Thats a huge issue because older people won’t connect with a young volunteer as well as they would an older volunteer.
That is a really poor comment Observer as I can tell you that there have been quite a few Young Liberals who have gone to both Robertson and Dobell, myself included.
Getting back to the discussion at hand: Having been travelling a fair bit to Gosford lately, the ALP campaign has been largely dormant, almost dead. The campaigning for Lucy Wicks has been relentless and I think that Robertson will fall, despite the Sophomore Swing that is sure to happen (As suggested by DB). I personally think that Wicks will get over the line 52/48 but that, unless something drastic happen, should increase her vote substantially afterwards.
As for McKinna, it is not too difficult for a major to go from Local to State but to go from Local to Federal is a big ask as there are major pockets all around. He would be campaigning on the back of the Central Coast Mariners and Singo. I don’t think he will get past 5%.
Hawkeye, its the truth and ur not one of those members.Thats what i thought about KS but so many people know of Matt and arre supporting him. This is anybodys seat
Deb O’Neill has worked very hard in Robertson and deserves a win even though her party is crap. The Liberal Candidate, Lucy Wicks was parachuted into the seat by devious means and from what I can see is totally useless. No one has ever heard of her, she went to School in Narara then promptly moved to Sydney. She does not have the backing of local business. In 2010 Darren Jameson the Liberal Candidate won in primaries by some 6000 plus but lost the seat to green preferences, a reflection of what happened across the Nation, hence a hung Parliament.
Don’t disagree with jan that Deb is been good for Robertson but the trend is towards labor and it looks like both Dobell and Robertson will become coalition wins – this is not a bad thing – i want both seats on central coast to be with the party in power – far better chance for us locals to get better services. Both Lucy and Karen will represent us well.
Hawkeye totally agree with your comments – thought Julia Bishop was great at Lucy’s campaign opening
Was up at Robertson again today and finally got a glimpse of the support that the ALP are given O’Neill in this seat (i.e. not much).
I think Wicks is looking the goods.
Jan
O’Niell is a labor party apparatchik as much as a former teacher. Have you heard any condemnation of her colleague’s behavior- NO !!!. She needs to go, along with most of her rotten bunch. Jim Lloyd worked his ringer off for Robertson, & his reward was to be replaced by….. “Do you know who i am” !!!.
Internal polling showing continued momentum to the Coalition throughout this campaign. I don’t think it is now possible for Deb O’Neill to win this seat.