Rankin – Australia 2013

ALP 5.4%

Incumbent MP
Craig Emerson, since 1998.

Geography
Rankin covers suburbs in both the City of Brisbane and the City of Logan in the southern parts of the greater Brisbane region. Suburbs include Algester, Calamvale, Hillcrest, Regents Park, Heritage Park, Crestmead, Kingston, Chatswood Hills and Springwood.

History
The seat of Rankin was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Labor Party. It originally covered Beaudesert and the Gold Coast hinterland but it has gradually moved into safer areas closer to Brisbane.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor MP David Beddall. Beddall had won the marginal seat of Fadden off the Liberal Party in 1983 before moving to Rankin. Beddall joined the Hawke ministry after the 1990 election and joined the Labor cabinet after the 1993 election, serving as a cabinet minister until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. He retired from Rankin in 1998.

Rankin was won in 1998 by Labor candidate Craig Emerson. Emerson joined the Labor shadow ministry following the 2001 election, and has been a minister in the Labor government since the 2007 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Craig Emerson is not running for re-election.

  • Neil Cotter (Greens)
  • Chris Claydon (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Bill Rogan (Palmer United Party)
  • Jim Chalmers (Labor)
  • David Lin (Liberal National)
  • Chris Lawrie (Family First)

Assessment
Rankin has always been held by the Labor Party, but a margin of 5.4% is certainly not safe, particularly considering Queensland’s experience of large swings. The LNP will be hoping to gain this seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Emerson ALP 36,090 45.15 -10.98
Luke Smith LNP 29,652 37.10 +2.63
Neil Cotter GRN 8,956 11.06 +6.61
Alexandra Todd FF 5,231 6.54 +3.44

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Emerson ALP 44,289 55.41 -6.26
Luke Smith LNP 35,640 44.59 +6.26
Polling places in Rankin at the 2010 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rankin at the 2010 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Polling places have been split into four geographic areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as “west”. Booths in the City of Logan have been split into South, East and North-East.

The ALP won solid majorities of over 60% in the two areas of the east and the south. The LNP won smaller majorities (51-54%) in the west and the north-east.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 11.56 61.91 17,022 21.30
South 11.27 62.45 16,981 21.25
West 11.07 48.78 15,747 19.70
North-East 11.61 46.68 12,299 15.39
Other votes 10.65 54.38 17,880 22.37
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.

63 COMMENTS

  1. Another seat to watch on election night.

    There is around a 4% two party preferred swing against Labor in Queensland since the 2010 election. Sports Bet odds has Craig Emerson favoured to retain this seat for Labor. My prediction based on the current polls is that Craig Emerson will retain this seat by a handful of votes.

  2. Another one showing larger swings than the state average. Would not be at all surprised if the LNP were to gain this.

  3. I think Lin’s lack of personal vote in the electorate might make it hard for him to win the seat. He is throwing everything into it and campaign hard though. Hope he gets up.

  4. Rosemary Smith
    Posted April 17, 2013 – not sure that what you suggest is an issue as there will be no sophomore surge to Emerson. I think this will be quite close given current voting intentions.

  6. A check on the Centrebet site this morning shows the gap between Labor and the LNP has narrowed in this seat. Private polling (thanks DB), published opinion polls, unpopularity of the Prime Minister and the Labor brand suggests Craig Emerson is in trouble and is in the fight of his political life to retain this seat for the government.

  7. I was hopeful that David Lin could pick this up and he has proven to be a strong cnadidate in terms of work ethic and promotional matters. Still I have concerns that after the state election and the resulting anti Newman media in the past year may put the seat out of reach. This is naturally a very strong Labor area.

    Still Lin is high profile and working hard, plus this seat is very ethnically diverse which will help Lin.

  8. Would agree that this will be one of the closest contests in the country. Although Woodridge stayed in Labor’s hands at the Queensland State Election, Algester, Logan, Waterford and Algester swung heavily to the LNP. I think David Lin starts the favourite to win this seat.

  9. Bad news for Craig Emerson.

    According to Centrebet the momentum continues with the Coalition. This afternoon the odds in Rankin show that Labor has drifted from $1.28 to $1.32 whilst the LNP has tightened from $3.20 to $3.00.

  10. I think I see a pattern here – all these seats where the odds for Labor are lengthening and the odds for the Liberals are shortening – I can’t imagine all those people betting have much inside information about these individual seats. Seems much more likely that it reflects an overall expectation that the Coalition are going to win the election. Even if the polls aren’t widening, Labor is running out of time to turn it around, so the odds lengthen.

  11. Anyone realise that Centrebet’s odds are way harsher that Sportsbet for the Coalition?

  12. Better news for Craig Emerson.

    This afternoon Sports Bet odds in Rankin show that Labor has firmed from $1.50 to $1.33 whilst the LNP has drifted from $2.30 to $3.00.

  14. Worrying news for Craig Emerson.

    This afternoon Centrebet odds in Rankin show that Labor has eased from $1.32 to $1.36 whilst LNP has firmed from $3.00 to $2.80.

  15. Momentum continues for the LNP.

    This morning Centrebet odds in this electorate shows the gap continues to close for the major parties, the price for Labor plummeted from $1.36 to $1.50 whilst the price for the LNP firmed from $2.80 to $2.35.

  16. If Julia remains leader until the election Mr Emerson will lose this seat. Mr Emerson has backed the wrong horse, LNP are quietly confident this will be close.

  17. I recon regardless of who leads this will stay, polls will have dreadful results now but once abbott is scrutinised during the election, people will be turned off by him

  18. Observer

    That would be a more valid perspective if it weren’t for the fact that he already faced that scrutiny three years ago. Like others, I tend to believe the lead will narrow during the election campaign, as tends to happen. But Queensland 2012 shows we can’t be too sure about that either.

  19. Observer

    This time it feels different I support Labor, but there seems to be wave of “I have had enough” which doesnt seem to be going away. I thought Labor might do better in QLD, but maybe not.

    I hope your right though !

  20. Another blow to Craig Emerson with the gap closing further between the major parties.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Rankin show that support for Labor drifting from $1.50 to $1.65 whilst support for the LNP strengthening from $2.35 to $2.10.

  21. Slight improvement for Craig Emerson.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Rankin show that support for Labor has firmed from $1.65 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP has eased from $2.10 to $2.25.

  22. I still see this as a knife edge seat. If I were to bet today, I’d suggest Emerson might just hang on by a percent or two.

  27. Boost in support for Rudd Labor with the gap widening between the major parties in this seat.

    According to the latest Sports Bet odds in Rankin, support for Labor firms from $1.33 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $3.00 to $4.00.

  28. Support for Rudd Labor is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Rankin show that support for Labor firms from $1.55 to $1.24 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.25 to $3.50.

  29. Further support for Rudd Labor in this seat.

    This afternoon Centrebet odds in Rankin show support for Labor tightens from $1.24 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP eases from $3.50 to $4.00.

  30. More support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Rankin show that support for Labor firming from $1.20 to $1.10 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $4.00 to $6.00. The momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor strengthening from $1.20 to $1.14 whilst support for the LNP easing from $4.00 to $5.00.

  31. Does anyone have any data on effects of a retiring incumbent? I think this will be tough for the LNP now, but with a new ALP candidate who knows.

  32. Rosemary, it is normally worth about 2%. I’d say for Emerson it is a bit higher given he was a senior minister. Say 3%.

  33. I have my doubts it is winnable now, but it won’t be due to the efforts of David Lin. He is high profile with his big bus, multiple cars, billboards, road sides and his very prominent office.

  34. I don’t think a reasonable prediction can truly be made for this seat at least until the preselection for the ALP candidate is completed. The right candidate would hold the seat comfortably. The wrong candidate would hand it to the LNP. Mind you, I don’t know who the right candidate is, yet, although, as I live in Forde, I know enough about Brett Raguse to say that he wouldn’t be a massively bad choice.

  37. That’s quite a crime beat up. He self reported two of these incidents.

    mind you the crikey journalism standard is pretty low. I was reading the YLNP scandal piece. They say Riley is the president and on the senior party exec. Both not true. Pretty average fact checking.

  39. Queensland Observer – let’s be honest, quality journalism doesn’t really exist in Australia, outside of a few specific journalists. If Crikey got two things wrong, that still puts them ahead of the typical article from News Ltd, and about par relative to Fairfax articles.

  44. Surge of support for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor drifts from $1.10 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $6.00 to $3.50. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.14 to $1.18 whilst support for the LNP firms from $5.00 to $4.25.

  45. More momentum for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor slips from $1.25 to $1.30 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.50 to $3.30.

  46. Setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor drifts from $1.30 to $1.33 whilst support for the LNP frims from $3.30 to $3.00.

  47. Another setback for Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor eases from $1.18 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $4.25 to $4.00.

  48. Further setback for Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor slips from $1.20 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $4.00 to $3.60.

  50. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor drifts from $1.25 to $1.28 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.60 to $3.40.

Newer Comments »

Comments are closed.