Rankin – Australia 2013

ALP 5.4%

Incumbent MP
Craig Emerson, since 1998.

Geography
Rankin covers suburbs in both the City of Brisbane and the City of Logan in the southern parts of the greater Brisbane region. Suburbs include Algester, Calamvale, Hillcrest, Regents Park, Heritage Park, Crestmead, Kingston, Chatswood Hills and Springwood.

History
The seat of Rankin was created in 1984 as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. It has always been held by the Labor Party. It originally covered Beaudesert and the Gold Coast hinterland but it has gradually moved into safer areas closer to Brisbane.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Labor MP David Beddall. Beddall had won the marginal seat of Fadden off the Liberal Party in 1983 before moving to Rankin. Beddall joined the Hawke ministry after the 1990 election and joined the Labor cabinet after the 1993 election, serving as a cabinet minister until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996. He retired from Rankin in 1998.

Rankin was won in 1998 by Labor candidate Craig Emerson. Emerson joined the Labor shadow ministry following the 2001 election, and has been a minister in the Labor government since the 2007 election.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Craig Emerson is not running for re-election.

  • Neil Cotter (Greens)
  • Chris Claydon (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Bill Rogan (Palmer United Party)
  • Jim Chalmers (Labor)
  • David Lin (Liberal National)
  • Chris Lawrie (Family First)

Assessment
Rankin has always been held by the Labor Party, but a margin of 5.4% is certainly not safe, particularly considering Queensland’s experience of large swings. The LNP will be hoping to gain this seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Emerson ALP 36,090 45.15 -10.98
Luke Smith LNP 29,652 37.10 +2.63
Neil Cotter GRN 8,956 11.06 +6.61
Alexandra Todd FF 5,231 6.54 +3.44

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Craig Emerson ALP 44,289 55.41 -6.26
Luke Smith LNP 35,640 44.59 +6.26
Polling places in Rankin at the 2010 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Rankin at the 2010 federal election. East in green, North-East in yellow, South in red, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Polling places have been split into four geographic areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as “west”. Booths in the City of Logan have been split into South, East and North-East.

The ALP won solid majorities of over 60% in the two areas of the east and the south. The LNP won smaller majorities (51-54%) in the west and the north-east.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 11.56 61.91 17,022 21.30
South 11.27 62.45 16,981 21.25
West 11.07 48.78 15,747 19.70
North-East 11.61 46.68 12,299 15.39
Other votes 10.65 54.38 17,880 22.37
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Rankin at the 2010 federal election.

63 COMMENTS

  1. Does anyone know if you can take multi bets on Sportsbet for election, similar to footy games….I won’t be doing that because I can’t morally bet against the ALP but seriously looking at some of the odds for Qld seats, people could make a fortune. Don’t worry what previous trends for seats were, in the last Qld state election Labor lost seats like Lytton and Sandgate which were considered safe. Rankin is a very, very good chance to to go the LNP, so is Oxley and Griffith, in fact I’d almost write off Oxley and Griffith for the ALP now. That’s quite a bit of money one could make. Add Capricornia which is a certain gain for the LNP (yet somehow they’re still the underdogs) and you can drown your sorrows (if you’re an ALP person) and go on a holiday with your winnings. Then we get into west Sydney seats where the Coalition are the outsiders in seats like Werriwa and McMahon which are gonski for Labor…..more money to be made.

  2. Rudd for PM’s just trying to put the mozz on the Coalition now…!

    You can’t really be that pessemistic can you? Rankin, Oxley, McMahon, Werriwa all “goneski”??

  3. Ha ha nah Mark, I’m just bitter, I guess I’m warn out trying to help and convince people to vote Labor in an unwimmable election…I’ve finally conceded it’s gonna be a blood bath. The Murdoch Press brain washes so many people and people don’t like to back a loser….they see the polls and they jump on board. It’s what happened in Qld last year. I say those seats are gone because if Rudd can be trailling 53/47 (and that’s an official poll) in Griffith, easily Labor’s safest seat in Qld, held by 8 percent, then he’s in deep trouble. I guess that’s assuming the swing is uniform, but usually swings are.

  4. The Margin in Werriwa is not enough for Labor to defend in a time when western Sydney has desserted them and McMahon reeks of what happened in Lindsay in 2007. The pamphlet lies the Coalition tried to get Labor with backfired and it caused Labor to win that seat by more than they probably wouled have. I fear the same thing may happen there with the attacks on Ray King.

  6. Yes Croc, but he’s one of their smarter ones. The people of Australia will wake up on Sunday to a country run by a cabinet of the same faces that were so on the nose 6 years ago and a cadre of nodding dills behind them. Abbott likes to bang on about how his cabinet is “stable” – stagnant is closer.

  8. Rudd for PM: “Rankin is a very, very good chance to to go the LNP, so is Oxley and Griffith, in fact I’d almost write off Oxley and Griffith for the ALP now.”

    What do you base this statement on? Rankin appears likely to be a hold. But do have that holiday, trust your gut and put down a few thousand …..

  10. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor eases from $1.33 to $1.38 whilst support for the LNP firms from $3.00 to $2.80.

  11. Yappp, I base it off the Qld thing, when the state swings, it swings and produces catastrophic losses. Whitlam’s landslide loss in 75, Labor left with 1 seat Oxley….Keating landslide loss in 96 Labor left with just Brisbane and Rankin. Brisbane is now in LNP’s hands and won’t change and Rankin is now a marginal seat. This loss will be worse than Keating 96 so do the maths.

  12. Well Rudd’s Rankin candidate said this about his boss!

    “As Wayne Swan’s Chief of Staff, Labor candidate for Rankin Jim Chalmers did not deny writing these words about Kevin Rudd on behalf of the former Treasurer (in an interview with ABC News published 22 August 2013):

    “For too long, Kevin Rudd has been putting his own self-interest ahead of the interests of the broader labor movement and the country as a whole. Kevin Rudd (had) all the opportunities in the world and he wasted them with his dysfunctional decision making and his deeply demeaning attitude towards other people”

  13. Another setback for Labor according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Rankin shows support for Labor drifts from $1.38 to $1.45 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.80 to $2.70.

« Older Comments

Comments are closed.