Senate – Queensland – Australia 2013

1. LNP Qld Senate candidates for the 2013 Federal election: Senator Ian Macdonald, James McGrath, Matt Canavan, David Goodwin, Dr Theresa Craig and Amanda Stoker.

2. The LNP will easily get their top three candidates elected (Ian Macdonald, James McGrath and Matt Canavan). Labor will get their top two (Chris Ketter and Claire Moore) and the final spot will be a three way battle between Katter’s Australian Party, the Greens (Adam Stone) and Labor’s Mark Furner. Senator Furner’s chances of re-election are very slim.

3. I agree that LNP will get 3. I think the ALP will get 2, and I reckon KAP will get the last off Liberal or other minor right preferences. The Greens vote will fall too much in QLD for them to hold on.

4. There is an outside chance that the LNP get 4 Senators. Especially if they replicate the state election result and get half a quota. I imagine for instance the Greens would preference LNP above Katter and the UAP.

5. The more I hear the less likely my statement about the Greens. They will preference Katter due to CSG. I don’t know about Palmer though.

6. I’ve been thinking about our senate race and the possibility of a result where the LNP get 4, Labor get 1 and 1 minor (KAP or GRN). The more I think about it, the less likely I think either the LNP getting 4 or Labor getting just 1 is. My prediction is on primarys, LNP get 3 and ALP gets 1. It’s then down to the ALP, GRN and KAP to fight it out for the last 2 seats. KAP gets a seat next (off LNP surplus and minor right parties like FF, LDP, Shooters and Fishers), followed by the ALP just securing their second seat ahead of the Greens.

7. In my opinion I never thought the coalition would secure a fourth seat as the minor parties will likely preference each other. Looking back at the 2010 senate result in Queensland the left could barley get above 3.13 of a quota with the Labor+greens+ sex party vote. If you consider the sex party vote to not go 100% to the left it was even less. Fact is one of the minor parties be it katters party, Clive’s party, or another minor will win the senate seat. There is no way that Labor and the greens will win more then two seats in the state.

8. It is highly unlikely but the LNP preference negotiator is the same person who secured the fourth spot in 2004. So if the preferences go the right way and the vote is high enough who knows.

   I agree that the Greens won’t win the 6th seat. if they win a seat it means Labor is left in 1. This is highly unlikely though.

9. The Coalition managed to win four seats in 2004 because they ran two separate tickets – if the LNP had run a single ticket, as they will do in 2013, they would not have won three.

10. Increasingly I am thinking that the Greens won’t win the last spot and it will go to KAP. The LNP will get 3 and Labor will get 2.

11. What is likely to be the impact of Palmer’s party and Katters’ mob? Their votes it seems to me are not going to come from the group who are at this stage still going to vote ALP. Therefore they must come from LNP voters -Every vote that goes to them raises the possibility of a leakage away form the LNP, no matter how small.

12. I disagree with you on two accounts. First I think Katter’s pro union anti-privatization stance will help him pick up support on the left. He will pick up equal amounts of Labor and Coalition support. Also in my opinion Palmer and Katter are going to have a very strong preference flow between each other and one of them is more or less assured to make it into the final count for the senate there by there eliminating any leakage. The Coalition in opinion is also very unlikly to make it into the final count for the last seat.

13. Kap is going to pick up about 35% of the vote from the Left and 65% from the right. The odds of KAP picking up the 3rd left seat is highly likely, in fact I would be surprise if they do not poll better then the Greens

14. Labor will get one seat in Queensland.

15. In the Senate?

16. Labor will get 1 in the Senate and 1 in the Lower House. They will be lucky to poll 18% in the Senate. The Libs will get 3, Labor 1, Greens 1 and someone else the 6th in the Senate. The Greens will get elected on Labor preferences.

17. I disagree Mark. I think there’ll be some leakage from the Greens back to Labor, which will partially offset the leakage from Labor to LNP. Labor will get one on primary, with Greens preferences pushing Labor above 2. On the right, the LNP will get 2 on primary votes, with at least one seat going to either KAP or PUP. Given the right preference deals, I could foresee a situation where Shooters, KAP or PUP preferences push one or the other ahead of the 3rd LNP candidate at the final moment.

18. 18%. Come on. I expect Labor to get about 1.7-1.8 quotas and the Greens to get 0.7-0.8 quotas, which may be enough for three seats, but there’s every chance one will miss out. From what I’ve seen, QLD is looking like Labor’s worst state in a primary vote sense.

19. Macca – You’ve only got five seats accounted for. You could be right though, the Greens preferences could give Labor 2 seats instead of the Greens winning one themselves.

    That would leave the LNP with three and the right wing squabblers with one.

20. No, I’ve got 6. 2 Labor, 2 LNP, 1 to either KAP or PUP and 1 to either LNP, KAP, PUP or Shooters (eliminating which ever party got the 5th seat).

    I just think that this would take into account that the ALP will lose votes to the LNP and to KAP, Greens will lose votes to the ALP and the LNP will lose votes to KAP and PUP. Plus, Keith Douglas’s performance in 2010 shows how good preference deals can get a party with relatively few votes at least close to the line.

21. Theoretically if the Greens put the Australian sex party ahead of Labor and the green vote goes below around .7 of a quota they have a very slim chance of taking a seat away from Labor with Green preferences.

22. I imagine that it’ll be LNP 3 seats, Labor 2, and who-knows 1.

23. With the jump in support for Labor, I would now be betting on 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 KAP and 1 more for one of the major parties

24. I still think the LNP will get three seats here. Four was never likely and now is impossible.

    Two seats could happen but I think LNP will be close enough to a full third quota that it will sneak over.

    I think Katter will be a victim in this and the Greens or labor will get the last seat which I previously thought would go to Katter.

25. I would think the LNP would get to 3, but KAP is probably less likely to get the last spot unless a deal is done with Labor ahead of the Greens.

26. This could be interesting. LNP might even lose their third spot to a minor right candidate, particularly given that Katter and Palmer should poll here.

27. Here’s how I see it. There are going to be around 50 parties running for the Senate in QLD. Labor will get 2 seats, Liberals will get 2 seats then there will be 2 seats up for grabs. I reckon the Greens won’t get in but two new minor parties will. It’s going to be a lottery for the two last spots. Tom.

28. The Lnp will still get three. If they don’t do so via full quotas they will get 2.8 or 2.9 and then creep over the line. The real question is labor vs matter for the sixth spot.

29. morgieb – No I think if the LNP are short 3, they will have enough to get to 3 from PUP/CDP preferences.

30. Perhaps, though I see Palmer preferencing Katter over the LNP. Though that’s just me. >_>

    And do the CDP have much of an impact in Queensland? Aren’t FFP bigger?

31. It’s hard to tell how PUP will preference – they may preference LNP over KAP, because while PUP is staunchly pro-business, KAP is incredibly not, in terms of their attitudes to things like trade, competition, etc. But having said that, Palmer himself clearly isn’t particularly enamoured with the LNP at this point in time – that’s why the party formed in the first place. My instinct is that KAP will draw more from Nats and, to a lesser degree, ALP, while PUP will draw most of its voters from Libs. And I think the question becomes whether PUP preferences based on politics or personalities.

32. 3 LAB, 2 LIB, 1 KAP

33. Another minor candidate of note here. Well-known anti-coal seam gas campaigner Brian Monk is running for the Stop CSG Party
    http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/candidates-chosen-for-stop-csg-party/1979587/

34. I still believe 3 lnp as they have drawn well on the ballot box and their candidates actually campaign across the state. McGrath and Canavan are putting in the km.

35. I actually think the chances are quite high that LNP and ALP only get two seats each, with one going Greens and one going KAP.

36. Well Glenn I believe that is more likely than labor grabbing three, but labor putting Kap above greens kill their chances. I see two full quotas each. Lnp near 3 and creep over the line while labor and pup flows to Kap electing them at the greens expense.

37. QO – the Greens nearly got a full quota on their own in 2010, and it’s likely that the Sex Party will put Greens high in their preference list (Greens + Sex Party made up 1.075 quotas). If the Greens can hold their primary vote in the Senate, they’ll win a seat, almost certainly.

    The risk for the Greens is the KAP taking some of the vote that went to them as a protest vote. But I think there’ll be more protest votes than ever at this election, despite what polling appears to say.

38. Fair enough except the sex party preferences the LNP in 2010 and helped get Mason up. I think the greens could get 0.8 quotas and still miss out thanks to the labor Kap deal.

39. QO, what are you talking about? Sex Party senate group preferences in Queensland in 2010 went like this:

    Sex Party
    Secular Party
    Carers Alliance
    Liberal Democrats (surprised at this one, actually – looks like a preference deal)
    Democrats
    Senator On-Line
    Greens
    Labor
    Socialist Alliance
    LNP (in reverse order)

    And then other groups after that. I suspect that you’ve confused first preference votes with total votes before being excluded. When they were excluded, they had 133,067 votes. First-preferences, they had 63,586. Meaning, more than half of their votes at point of exclusion were not first preferences. And 62,867 of their votes at exclusion came from the LDP (whose preferences went LDP, DLP, Independent group I, Climate Sceptics, Sex Party, Carers Alliance…) – most of that was LDP first preferences, and LDP put Liberals ahead of Labor (although it went first two liberals, then first two labor, then third liberal, then third labor).

    And it’s likely that a similar spread will happen from the Sex Party at this election.

40. Glen said: “I actually think the chances are quite high that LNP and ALP only get two seats each, with one going Greens and one going KAP”. But the LNP will get close to 50% of the primary vote. How will they not get 3 quotas? The left won’t get enough to get 3 up in this election in QLD.

41. DB – I’m skeptical that the LNP will do that well, especially in Queensland. The numbers in the polls don’t seem reasonable, to me.

    I could see LNP managing maybe 38%, KAP (plus PUP and probably FF preferences) getting to 14.5%, Greens+Sex getting to about the same, Labor getting to 28%, and then preferences pushing Labor over the line (you need about 28.6% of the vote for two quotas, and Carers, Democrats, and leftover Greens+Sex preferences should manage that).

42. My apologies, I mistook Mason saying sex party preferences won him his seat . They did but that didn’t mean the LNP was above the greens.
    That said I still believe the LNP will get three or near three quotas. Kap labor greens three way battle for the last spot.

43. Glen Druery who runs the minor party alliance has lied to heaps of parties about preferences. He said that he was giving all these parties preferences for the Shooters and Fishers party and Fishing and Lifestyle party but has reneged on lots of deals. He has taken all their votes and is not giving them back. He is paid by Fishing and Lifesyle to get Fishing and Lifestyle elected in QLD so when he saw that F and L were losing, he lied and cheated. Fishing and Lifestyle will probably win QLD but they shouldn’t. They will have lied and cheated their way in just like Stephen Fielding did years ago,

44. This is just plain weird! Why the heck would ONP be doing that?
    “One Nation in QLD go Katter then Greens ahead of Fishing and Lifestyle Party and majors”
    https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenABC

45. Palmer preferencing Greens here, and surprisingly high in other states too. Greens lose ALP but gain Palmer. Stone could get elected after all – 8% GRN, 4% PUP, 2.5% micro feeders is not impossible.

46. So much to say… the LNP will get about three quotas and the ALP will get just under two quotas. They will probably get their 2nd senator, but there’s a small chance it will go to the Greens instead.

    The final spot is a lot of fun.

    Family First has done very well with preferences… coming from Shooters, Fishers, One Nation, Christians, Palmer, seven micro-parties, and excess Liberal vote (if any). That could take them to ~10% and put them into the “end game”.

    Katter gets nearly no preferences… only DLP and the insignificant Protectionists. Recent polls suggest he could get less than 5% and might well drop out early.

    Sex Party picks up preferences from HEMP, Democrats, Independents, and six other micro-parties, which could take them up to 4-5% of the vote.

    Liberal Democrats get preferences from Smokers, Stop the Greens, Republicans, and Rudd’s brother, which could take them up to 4-5% of the vote. If the LDP gets in front of Sex, then they get Sex/HEMP preferences, taking them to 8%. That would put them ahead of Katter, and they get Katter/DLP preferences, taking them over 10% and into the “end game”.

    So we could have Greens, Family First and Liberal Democrats fighting it out for the last spot. If the Greens fall… LDP is elected. If Family First falls… LDP is elected. If LDP falls… Family First is elected. Take your pick. My hope is that the LDP makes it over the line just so that the Australian chatterati can be perpetually confused about whether to say a libertarian is “left wing” or “right wing”. 😉

    In the bonus round, if the Labor vote falls so that their 2nd candidate is behind the Greens, then two of the above three might be elected.

47. BTW, for the list of candidates, Gabriel Buckley is running for the Liberal Democrats, the fantastic Rachel Connor is running for Smokers’ Rights, and John Rooth is running for Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop the Greens).

    Also, you’ve got the wrong first candidate for Family First (Aidan McLindon), and the 21st century mob aren’t running a candidate.

48. How many parties has McLindon been in? Must be at least four.

49. John, love your website, but I think wearing your LDP hat makes you a little optimistic here. I have had a read through and it appears as though the LDP have done well but One Nation seems to have placed in front of it on many of the tickets you mentioned. So preferences would go there and LDP would be eliminated.

    Also wouldn’t the Shooters and Palmer both come into play?

    Maybe I haven’t read it properly though’ happy to be corrected.

50. I couldn’t find a better place to put this, so I put it here.

    “The LNP now anticipates retaining its existing seats, and aspires to further snare Moreton (Labor margin 1.1%), Petrie (2.5%), Lilley (3.2%) and Capricornia (3.7%). However, contrary to the findings of last week’s automated phone polls, both sides consider Peter Beattie’s tilt at Forde (LNP margin of 1.6%) to be “hanging in the balance”. A “senior ALP insider” is quoted saying the party still has hopes for the Townsville seat of Herbert (2.2%), where Peter Beattie was campaigning on Monday, and to a slightly lesser extent for Brisbane (1.1%), where Labor started the campaign as short-priced favourites”. Source: Pollbludger

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