ALP 2.5%
Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2007.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Petrie covers suburbs on the northern edge of the City of Brisbane, including Bracken Ridge and parts of Aspley. It also includes parts of Moreton Bay Regional Council, including Redcliffe, Scarborough and Deception Bay.
History
Petrie was created as part of the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and has always been a marginal seat, changing sides on many occasions. The seat has been a bellwether seat since 1987.
The seat was first won by Alan Hulme (Liberal) in 1949. Hulme served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1958 until 1961, when he was defeated by Reginald O’Brien (ALP), and Hulme won the seat back off O’Brien in 1963, before resuming a ministerial role.
O’Brien retired in 1972, and the seat was won by Marhsall Cooke. Cooke was not preselected by the Liberals in 1974, and he retired, with John Hodges winning the seat. Hodges held the seat for the Liberals until the 1983 election, when Dean Wells (ALP) won the seat. Hodges won it back off Wells in 1984, and Wells went on to serve as a minister in Labor state government from 1989 until 2004.
Hodges was finally defeated by the ALP’s Gary Johns in 1987. Johns went on to serve as a minister in the last term of the Keating government, losing his seat to Liberal Teresa Gambaro in 1996.
Gambaro held the seat for eleven years before losing to Yvette D’Ath in 2007.
D’Ath was re-elected in 2010 amidst a large anti-Labor swing in Queensland was a minimal 1.7% swing to the Liberal National Party.
Candidates
- Elise Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
- Thor Prohaska (Palmer United Party)
- John Marshall (Greens)
- Chris Thomson (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Tasman Spence (Family First)
- Luke Howarth (Liberal National)
- Geoff Cornell (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Yvette D’Ath (Labor)
Assessment
D’Ath managed to survive with a minor swing in 2010, but she faces a very tight race in 2013. If there is a significant swing to the LNP in Queensland she will struggle to survive.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Yvette D’Ath | ALP | 32,677 | 42.79 | -6.27 |
| Dean Teasdale | LNP | 30,590 | 40.06 | -2.76 |
| Peter Jeremijenko | GRN | 6,949 | 9.10 | +4.68 |
| Sally Vincent | FF | 3,829 | 5.01 | +3.14 |
| Gabriel Buckley | LDP | 1,604 | 2.10 | +1.79 |
| Lawrence Addison | DLP | 715 | 0.94 | +0.94 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Yvette D’Ath | ALP | 40,097 | 52.51 | -1.70 |
| Dean Teasdale | LNP | 36,267 | 47.49 | +1.70 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as South.
Those around Redcliffe have been grouped as East, and the remainder around North Lakes and at the northern end of the electorate have been grouped as West.
The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from 50.7% in the south to 54.2% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| East | 9.48 | 53.16 | 24,727 | 32.38 |
| South | 8.79 | 50.68 | 18,206 | 23.84 |
| West | 8.60 | 54.15 | 15,153 | 19.84 |
| Other votes | 9.32 | 52.10 | 18,278 | 23.94 |
I’m not asking what topics you were asking questions on. I’m asking for the sorts of questions you were asking. There’s a big difference, for instance, between “Do you feel that the current distribution of tax burden is unfair, and who is it most benefiting?” and “What are you going to do about the extremely unfair tax burden that your party has been placing on those who invest money?” (or “How can you accept a tax system that so harshly penalises the poorest in our country?”)
Or “What is your position on the question of marriage equality for same-sex couples?” and “How do you even justify your vote on the issue of marriage equality?”
What I’m trying to gauge is tone and attitude, rather than the topics.
I asked wht her position was with respect to those topics. I never asked her to justify her position. Just asked what her position was……is that enough? I was NOT aggressive in any way shape or form, not abusive, did not use “curse” words. I am not rude or abrupt by nature (and the fact my mother taught me manners).
Well Bella if you wanna whinge about the treatment use facebook don’t just say that one bad experience with Yvette means that she is like that to everyone and will not win
I’d expect Labor to retain.
thanks Ben, have already done so…..but its not “just one bad experience”…..and I didnt realise this was a forum for Pro Yvette ony contribution….when I was at Uni (yes I went to Uni, got my Masters, PHd etc) your pro stance may be viewed as “Dorothy Dix” style….maybe you can google that
It’s not a pro yvette Bella but you can’t seriously go on about the way she allegedly spoke to you. I’ve heard of tony Abbott being rude to a constituent at a post office but he’s still going to win
Let’s see…
1. Bella gets defensive when someone asks for clarification, and refuses to actually answer the question being asked.
2. Bella claims to have a PhD, but can’t even get the capitalisation for it correct.
3. Bella aggressively argues that Yvette D’Ath was overly rude to a non-aggressive question from her.
4. Bella gets angry at people expressing some skepticism about her claims, and plays the victim.
5. Bella spends a lot of time on a relatively minor site, posting these complaints, and there’s no sign of anyone else having such complaints – this sort of thing would be devastating to a candidate if there were any pattern of it.
I’m going to say it right now – I’m now HIGHLY skeptical. I have no opinion on Ms D’Ath, having not even heard of her before I started coming to this site, but I certainly have an opinion of Bella.
Yeah, same general outlook from me. Is being on the “do not contact” list something like being issued with a restraining order?
Glen & Observer. Get over it. You both would be singing different tunes if it was a LIB that was being rude. Bella has every right to make a complaint about her local member!! Hope you two never have!! WATCH THE REACTION!!!
Bunny, she has the right to make a complaint. She has no right to not be questioned on her claim, or for people to accept it at face value without scrutiny. And no, I wouldn’t be singing a different tune, unless there was broader evidence that the Lib candidate was doing it.
The original reason that people on here called Bella out wasn’t her complaint – it was the assumption that, because Ms D’Ath had acted in that way to her, specifically, that therefore Ms D’Ath was going to lose her seat. People pointed out that there’s little evidence that isolated cases of such things have rarely ever had that effect, and that this site, which is more interested in predictions and observations of the polls, isn’t so much interested in an anecdote, as they are in what impact it would have on the polls. Bella got more belligerent over it with each post, resulting in our current attitude toward her. She has brought it on herself, and it has nothing to do with political bias. Like I said – I have no opinion one way or the other about Ms D’Ath. I only have an opinion, at this point, of Bella.
sorry guys, but I get a bit upset when I feel ganged up on. Didnt mean to upset anyone of you,. I will keep my opinions to myself in future
oh and I am trying to type on an iPad, its a bit unusual for me…..so I once again apologize if my “capitilzation” isnt correct
Bella, democracy has room for robust debate. Yours included!
Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor eases from $1.35 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.90 to $2.70.
Lurch,
This is my old electorate I am interested in the odds over the next few weeks I like your updates.
regards
Grassy
Support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows that support for Labor eases from $1.25 to $1.40 whilst support for the Coalition firms from $3.50 to $2.75.
Lurch – some polling by Reachtel taken last night has the Coalition in a much stronger position than expected. I don’t know if they have been publicly released, however, one poll is that Rudd leads Glasson in Griffith by only 54.5/45.5.
Hence I’d suggest a number of these betting agencies are going to move towards the Coalition in QLD in the next few days.
Rudd only winning by 54.5? What?
ReachTEL seems pretty pro-Coalition this election tbh.
morgieb, to be honest, ReachTEL and Newspoll are pretty much in line with what the internal polling in the marginal seats are suggesting.
Encouraging news for the LNP according to Sports Bet.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows that support for Labor eases from $1.40 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.75 to $2.60.
Better news for Labor according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Petrie shows that support for Labor tightens from $1.40 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.70 to $2.90.
Good news for Labor according to Sports Bet.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor firms from $1.55 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.60 to $2.90.
More encouraging news for the LNP according to the betting sites.
This evening, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.45 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.90 to $2.55. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.35 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.90 to $2.70.
Surge of support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.
Currently, Centrebet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.65 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.90 to $2.15.
More support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor eases from $1.35 to $1.57 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.90 to $2.15.
It would be great for the LNP to take Petrie. I’m starting to feel more confident.
Yes it would be great for the LNP! But it wouldn’t be the best outcome for real effective democratic representation for the voters of Petrie if either of the duopoly parties win. Only the Palmer United Party allows their candidates to represent what the voters really think. So if you want real democracy in Petrie you need to think about that.
Oh yes, great news for democracy if Palmer has representative sin parliament ensuring his mining projects can go ahead. of course he isn’t a lobbyist as he is only lobbying for his own mining interests not someone else’s.
Oh? Is that right, Thor? So why is it that the Pirate Party actually asked its constituents to decide the order of candidates on their Senate preference listings, while the PUP did backroom deals? And what makes the PUP any more for-the-people than the Greens, the KAP, or Family First?
I suggest you find a better way to assert your worthiness for parliament, by putting forward real proposals and a specific vision for your electorate.
‘Qld Observer’ / ‘Glen’, You obviously have done no research into me or my published position on representing the electorate and what is important.
Firstly if there was an issue to do with mining and Clive’s interests were involved his stated position is that he would absent him self from the vote.
Secondly if I was elected then ANY issue / policy that I would vote on would be determined by the voters of Petrie NOT the party platform and NOT what Clive or anybody else out side the electorate said.
The major parties are either denying that there is a homeless problem in Petrie or are down grading its importance.
I find it completely unacceptable that in a country as wealthy as ours that there are so many people who are jobless, homeless and hungry. How can we build for the future if we can’t take care of the present. If elected I will fight to make sure everyone in Petrie has a roof over their heads, food on their table and a job so they can take care of themselves and their family. And I’ve got a better way to do this than the current parties.
For more info see: http://votewrap.org.au/
Thor Prohaska
Who are you preferencing on HTVs? Split ticket or LNP ahead of the ALP?
DB – HO will be advising me today on what the party preferencing will be on the HTV cards. Personally I think every voter should make up their own minds on who to preference. Thor
Hot of the press!
PUP ‘How To Vote’ for Petrie:
1 – Prohaska, Thor ( PUP )
2 – Thomson, Chris ( KAP )
3 – Spence, Tasman ( FF )
4 – Howarth, Luke ( LNP )
5 – Jennings, Elise ( RUA )
6 – Marshal, John ( GRN )
7 – Cornell, Geoff ( CEC )
8 – D’Ath, Yvette ( ALP )
Thor, while I appreciate your full disclosure – Thank you, I don’t think it’s realistic to say that Clive would exclude himself from any parliamentary discussion on issues which might affect his business interests (however ethical it is to do so). If so, then he would need to exclude himself from any discussions on changes to the company tax rate (proposed by both major parties, including with Tony Abbott’s levy to pay for Paid Parental Leave). He would have to exclude himself from any discussions around industry transiting through the Great Barrier Reef, mining policies, industrial relations policies, and many more that I’ll leave to someone else to think of.
Most interestingly, if Palmer were to exclude himself from those discussions, he couldn’t provide any input on one of his biggest policies – repealing the mining tax!
Macca – exactly, he would be out of the chamber more than Katter. Plus if any other PUPs are elected they will be left in the chamber to ensure what is good for Clive gets up.
This is what I thought. It is unofficial but I believe PUP will be preferencing the LNP above Labor in all seats in QLD and perhaps across the country. Given it appears KAP and PUP are exchanging preferences in QLD, there is an outside chance that one of them could get someone up in one of the northern QLD HoR seats.
Overall though, it is really hard to see how the ALP will make the gains they need in QLD to retain Government based on the preferencing arrangements seemingly in place.
Thor – let me get this straight, it’s the party that is deciding how your HTV preferences go, not the candidate who is supposed to be trying to represent their electorate?
Hypocrisy much?
Macca-BNE, If Clive is elected to the house of reps then he is only one vote. There are another 149 reps who should be able to vote as their constituents want them to vote. Not the way the party whip tells them to. Only slaves are whipped. We need free men and women acting on our behalf. Remember it is the ‘House of Representatives’ NOT the ‘House of Politicians’.
QLD-Observer, So you don’t believe that any of the PUP candidates are going to vote the way their electorate wants them to. Well my fellow PUPs have that freedom. How they choose to exercise that is beyond my authority to comment. But if elected I won’t be putting Clive’s interests ahead of the voters of Petire. How much more clear to you want me to be!
Glen, why so hung up on how to vote cards? Yes the party is deciding this time but it is the voters who decide. However, when it comes to policy PUP representatives WILL be independent. That is the most important thing. BTW if it was up to me I would not have a HTV card.
Thor, no offence, but shouldn’t you be out campaigning – not blogging? I somehow doubt you are going to win many votes on here. I have rarely seen a candidate benefit from being hooked on online discussions about their results!
Thor has some good points, and the candidates I have met at PUP are a great group of straight shooting, honest people, who are putting themselves forward to try and improve the country. Which is probably the same as most other politicians. Most people have to sign up to one of the two major parties, because Australians don’t vote for the nest person, they vote for a party, and that party is usually based on who their parents voted for, or who their union told them to vote for.
The people on this forum are well informed and open minded, and are looking at the real world, not the media driven view most people see. The PUP policies cover a few issues, with the rest still being developed. So join the party and have your say 🙂
Given that all politicians have super policies, which hold shares in mining companies, so they all have an interest in ensuring the mining industry stays strong.
Gus, you are right that there is more value in talking to members of the electorate. The only reason I’m sitting on a computer is administration & organisation work that has to be done. It would have been nice to have three years to prepare like the established parties have but we’ve only had 3 months or so!
The big difficulty that the ALP will have in Queensland comes from the QLD 2012 election. A lot of the swing against them actually went to the KAP, with the majority of those votes exhausting. It will be a different dynamic with the compulsory preferencing but I can still see KAP playing a major role as it throws a spanner in the works of preferencing.
Good news for Luke Howarth
Sportsbet are posting $1.85 each for both Howarth and D’Arth today. I’m guessing that swing towards the LNP is happening, and I for one am grateful for it.
Another blow to Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor drifts from $1.57 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.15 to $1.85.
DB, have you seen any recent polling to suggest that this seat is a possible gain for the Coalition?
Lurch,
thank you for the updates, as it gets closer these odds will be a better indication than the polls
cheers again
I’d say Labor is still ahead in this seat Lurch to be honest.
Improvement for Labor according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Petrie shows support for Labor firms from $1.85 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.85 to $2.10.
DB, thanks again for the update.
Hi DB,
North Lakes has become quite a big suburb within the electorate of Petrie, it will be interesting how the vote in Redcliffe and Scarborough matches up against North Lakes for Ms D’ath.
?
Back to $1.85 a piece for Labor and LNP in Petrie.
Here’s some info for you about the LNP candidate, which god help us people of Petrie, if he is elected. His pest control company that he runs has had so many complaints they are seen as something of a joke. Shonky jobs, overcharging people, not fixing their mistakes etc. Do you really want someone like that representing an electorate? Sure D’Ath is a bit of a Gillard hack but she has at least achieved some projects for the electorate in her time.