Petrie – Australia 2013

ALP 2.5%

Incumbent MP
Yvette D’Ath, since 2007.

Geography
Northern Brisbane. Petrie covers suburbs on the northern edge of the City of Brisbane, including Bracken Ridge and parts of Aspley. It also includes parts of Moreton Bay Regional Council, including Redcliffe, Scarborough and Deception Bay.

History
Petrie was created as part of the 1949 expansion of Parliament, and has always been a marginal seat, changing sides on many occasions. The seat has been a bellwether seat since 1987.

The seat was first won by Alan Hulme (Liberal) in 1949. Hulme served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1958 until 1961, when he was defeated by Reginald O’Brien (ALP), and Hulme won the seat back off O’Brien in 1963, before resuming a ministerial role.

O’Brien retired in 1972, and the seat was won by Marhsall Cooke. Cooke was not preselected by the Liberals in 1974, and he retired, with John Hodges winning the seat. Hodges held the seat for the Liberals until the 1983 election, when Dean Wells (ALP) won the seat. Hodges won it back off Wells in 1984, and Wells went on to serve as a minister in Labor state government from 1989 until 2004.

Hodges was finally defeated by the ALP’s Gary Johns in 1987. Johns went on to serve as a minister in the last term of the Keating government, losing his seat to Liberal Teresa Gambaro in 1996.

Gambaro held the seat for eleven years before losing to Yvette D’Ath in 2007.

D’Ath was re-elected in 2010 amidst a large anti-Labor swing in Queensland was a minimal 1.7% swing to the Liberal National Party.

Candidates

  • Elise Jennings (Rise Up Australia)
  • Thor Prohaska (Palmer United Party)
  • John Marshall (Greens)
  • Chris Thomson (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Tasman Spence (Family First)
  • Luke Howarth (Liberal National)
  • Geoff Cornell (Citizens Electoral Council)
  • Yvette D’Ath (Labor)

Assessment
D’Ath managed to survive with a minor swing in 2010, but she faces a very tight race in 2013. If there is a significant swing to the LNP in Queensland she will struggle to survive.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath ALP 32,677 42.79 -6.27
Dean Teasdale LNP 30,590 40.06 -2.76
Peter Jeremijenko GRN 6,949 9.10 +4.68
Sally Vincent FF 3,829 5.01 +3.14
Gabriel Buckley LDP 1,604 2.10 +1.79
Lawrence Addison DLP 715 0.94 +0.94

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Yvette D’Ath ALP 40,097 52.51 -1.70
Dean Teasdale LNP 36,267 47.49 +1.70
Polling booths in Petrie at the 2010 federal election. South in green, West in yellow, East in blue.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been grouped as South.

Those around Redcliffe have been grouped as East, and the remainder around North Lakes and at the northern end of the electorate have been grouped as West.

The ALP won a majority in all areas, varying from 50.7% in the south to 54.2% in the west.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
East 9.48 53.16 24,727 32.38
South 8.79 50.68 18,206 23.84
West 8.60 54.15 15,153 19.84
Other votes 9.32 52.10 18,278 23.94
Two-party-preferred votes in Petrie at the 2010 federal election.

121 COMMENTS

  1. Luke Howarth is the LNP candidate for this seat, and Labors’ Yvette D’Ath is running again. The Greens are running John Marshall here. Should be an easy gain for the LNP

  3. As always, Yvette can rely on rivers of cash from her AWU mates, but I suspect it won’t be enough this time. I live in this seat, and the LNP are running a strong campaign. Barely hear or see anything of Yvette now days.

  4. Well sadly I have to agree with “electionlova” Ms D’ath will lose her seat, as she has publically backed Ms Gillard and was seen walking triumphantly with the Gillard backers to the caucus meeting for the recent spill election.

    Voters will not forget that especially Queenslanders.

    It is 5 months plus until September but Ms D’ ath: prediction she will comfortably lose her seat with a 7 % swing against her.

  5. As a Labor voter I agree with Grassy and predict that Yvette D’ath will also lose this seat.

    Latest Sports Bet odds in Petrie confirm this prediction showing that Labor has drifted from $2.30 to $2.50 whilst the Coalition has firmed from $1.57 to $1.50.

  7. Thanks DB. As of this morning the momentum continues with the Coalition in Petrie. Latest Sports Bet odds show Labor is steady at $2.50 whilst the Coalition has firmed from $1.50 to $1.45.

  8. More bad news for Yvette D’ath in Petrie.

    The momentum continues for the Coalition in Petrie. Latest Sports Bet odds show the Coalition has firmed from $1.45 to $1.33 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.50 to $2.65.

  9. Continuation of bad news for Yvette D’ath.

    Latest Centrebet odds in Petrie show the Coaltion has firmed from $1.72 to $1.37 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.00 to $2.90.

  11. Rosemary Smith, the problems the LNP face with Scott Driscoll are nothing in comparison to the problems Labor faces in general this election. There is more to this seat than the State Seat of Redcliffe. The LNP will win Petrie.

  12. Well the question is whether those who voted LNP at State are willing to vote for them again at Federal… and looking at that at the booth breakdowns a lot of those booths in the State seat of Redcliffe are ALP. I think LNP will still win but it will be tight. Without the Driscoll problem it would have been a walk in.

  13. News gets wprse for Yvette D’ath.

    Sports Bet odds this afternoon in Petrie show that the LNP remains stationary at $1.33 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.65 to $3.00.

  14. I moved to this electorate area in 2011. Iam from a very strong Labor background. My grand father was a prominent union man, my father was good friends with Bob Hawke and Gough Whitlam. They both attended myfathers funeral. I askedsome questions of Ms D’ath. Apparently she didnt like my questions and has put me on the “no contact” list. I didnt think any labor supporter should be placed on this list ever! But shesays shedoesnt need my vote…….so be it. Enjoy working at Maccas Yvette

  15. Bella rozenberg, I too was a Labor voter lived in North Lakes I have moved away, but my wife’s family are traditional labor voters, her grandfather was very high up in the Labor party in Queensland in 50’s and 60’s, he would be disgusted in the Labor brand and their self serving attitude.
    Again Grow up Labor this includes Ms D’ath

  16. Bella you do realise that in any office, an MP is given the questions by staffers so you shouldn’t really be annoyed with y’vette, it should be the staffer

  19. Hi Folks,

    My name is Thor Prohaska and I would like to introduce myself as the Palmer United Candidate for the federal seat of Petrie.

    I see you are all very focused on the Labor/LNP contest. Well the one thing that they don’t offer that we do is to represent what the electorate thinks. Whereas any member of either of the other parties have to toe the party line.

    As the PUP candidate for Petrie I pledge that I will faithfully represent without fear or favour what the voters of the Petrie electorate think on all policies and issues.

    It doesn’t matter what your political views are I will put what you and the electorate thinks first.

    For example, if the majority in the Petrie electorate wants the sky to be Orange and I and/or the Party think that it should be Blue then I will argue for Orange and vote that way on your behalf.

    So a vote for me and the PUP in Petrie is a vote for genuine representation. Why settle for anything less?

    Let the contest of ideas begin.

    Regards, Thor

    P.S. Whoever is administering this page could you please correct the spelling of my surname. It is Prohaska no Prohasky. Thanks.

  20. To the moderator. I see that something went wrong when I was typing this message and I have made a typo at the start of the post where I typed ‘prohaand ska’ and it should have been ‘Prohaska and’. Can you please correct it. And once you have corrected my name could you please delete the P.S. at the bottom of the first post. Thanks.

  22. Further blow to Yvette D’ath.

    This morning the Centrebet odds in Petrie show the gap has widened between the major parties. Support for the LNP has firmed from $1.37 to $1.28 whilst support for Labor has drifted from $2.90 to $3.25.

  23. News gets worse for Yvette D’ath.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Petrie show that the gap between the major parties continues to widen. Support for the LNP strengthens from $1.28 to $1.25 whilst support for Labor continues to drift from $3.25 to $3.40.

  24. D’Ath should’ve lost this seat last time, especially as Queenslanders revolted against Labor’s knifing of their Kevvie. She clearly had something to have survived that backlash. It’s hard to see her hanging on this time.

  26. Does anyone think D’Ath may hold on here now that Rudd is back? Word is they love Rudd in this area and it was anti Gillard sentiment that was gonna cause this backlash? A visit from Rudd might work.

  27. Yeh I mean LNP haven’t done themselves proud in this area, particularly with a certain state member. if she is promoted which many are tipping, she’ll be closer to Rudd and the people probably will vote her back. She also has strong support from unions (volunteers)

  29. Surge in support for Rudd Labor with Yvette D’ath very slightly favoured to retain this seat.

    According to the latest Sports Bet odds in Petrie, support for Labor firmed from $3.00 to $1.75 whilst support for the LNP diminished from $1.33 to $2.00.

  30. Support for Rudd Labor is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Petrie show that support for Labor strengthens from $3.40 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.25 to $2.15.

  31. Further support for Rudd Labor in this seat.

    This afternoon Centrebet odds in Petrie show that support for Labor shortens from $1.60 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.15 to $2.30. The latest Sports Bet odds in this electorate also show that support for Labor tightens from $1.75 to $1.62 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.00 to $2.20.

  32. More support for Rudd Labor in this seat.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Petrie show that support for Labor strengthens from $1.62 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.20 to $2.75. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this electorate with support for Labor firming from $1.55 to $1.45 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $2.30 to $2.55.

  34. Momentum continues for Rudd Labor in this seat.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Petrie show that support for Labor tightens from $1.40 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP dwindles from $2.75 to $3.50.

  35. Does anyone else think these polling market changes are too strong?

    While there’s no doubt K Rudd’s made Labor more competitive, it seems like the odds have swung WAY too much toward them. Some of their odds are now as strong as the LNP’s were against Gillard-led Labor, and there’s no suggestion the ALP is going to run away with this election.

  36. Macca-BNE.

    The change in the odds seems reasonable. Suppose internal polling for this seat indicated a 6% swing away from Labor under Gillard and a 1% swing to Labor under Rudd, both relative to 2010 (I don’t have any access to internal polling, but BludgerTrack’s national average shifted by 7% between June and July, so it’s plausible that this seat moved by a similar amount). That corresponds to a LNP result of 53.5% in June and a Labor result of 53.5% today, which would justify the odds flipping from $1.25 for the LNP to $1.25 for Labor in the same time frame.

    As to the bigger picture, Labor being a warm favourite in some seats they already hold doesn’t mean they’ll run away with the election.

  37. Macca BNE
    In answer to you. Yes i do. 3 YEARS of polling , against 3 weeks ??. It just defies reason. Going into a polling booth , & choosing a govt for the future 3 years is very sobering. The dominant influence is the memory & satisfaction with the previous 3 years experience .

  38. Another interesting perspective is to look at the betting across all seats. Kevin Bonham did this recently, and Labor were favourites in 63 seats, while the Coalition were favourites in 84-87 seats (it wasn’t clear from his post what was happening in the Green and independent seats). So the gamblers still favour the Coalition pretty strongly, even if they’ve changed their minds on a few individual seats.

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/poll-roundup-and-seat-betting-watch-16.html

  39. Edward Boyce, I’d also suggest what the very experienced Bonham points out somewhat reflects the internal polling of both parties from what I am hearing. Whilst there is a swing to Rudd Labor and a fair bit of momentum, it’s not enough to win an election despite the mainstream poll indicators showing a much closer result.

  40. At the time of my last update it was 85-63-2 in seat favourite terms (higher for Labor in projected seat totals); only Denison and Kennedy have neither Labor nor Coalition faves.

    I am starting to wonder now how much of the discrepancy between the odds and polls is based on factoring in the possibility of a Turnbull comeback.

  41. Good news for Yvette D’ath.

    This morning Centrebet odds in Petrie show support for Labor has firmed from $1.45 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP has eased from $2.55 to $2.90.

  42. i dont doubt that there is a swing back to Labor BUT there are many who would NEVER vote for D’ath. The ACTU rang me during the week for a survey and were surprised when I told them my views. I guess the only “survey” poll that matters is the one on Election Day

  43. Wow Bella it’s a shame that ur one experience is preventing you from contributing anything interesting or valuable on these posts

  46. sorry but I think its a valid point that the personality and how the candidate interacts with her constituents is actually a VALID point!

  47. also I asked several questions, not just one…..over a six month period and every time I saw her at a shopping centre. I asked them in a respectful way. I was fobbed off each time. Then I was told that I had been put on a no contact register ?

  48. Well ‘Observer’ that doesn’t sound like a one off bad experience. I agree with Bella that a ‘representative’ needs to listen to all voters in an electorate. However, I can empathise with any of the major party reps because they have to toe the party line and they have no easy process to capture dissenting positions from the party platform. I only agreed to be the Palmer United Party candidate for Petrie because the party gives us the freedom to represent what the majority of voters think even if it is at odds with the party platform. Roll on democracy!!!

    P.S. Bella I’d be interested to know about the issue you wanted to discuss with the current member. If you want please call me on 0419 344 806

  49. Bella, I’m curious – what sort of questions were you asking? If you’re going to make claims about the candidate on the basis of how she reacted to you asking questions, then I think it’s only fair to provide the context.

  50. I asked what her position was on the following
    Fair indexation on Defence Pensions,
    Marriage Equality,
    Refugees/Assylum seekers
    Changes to Centrelink
    Environmental Management
    Wildlife protection
    proposed changes to Long Service Leave
    Taxation
    and No, I am not a nut. These things are important to me and I asked the other candidates the same questions. They gave me strightforward answers. She did not……and then put me on the do not contact register.

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