Parkes – Australia 2013

NAT 18.9%

Incumbent MP
Mark Coulton, since 2007.

Geography
Parkes covers large parts of western NSW, stretching from Dubbo, Mudgee and Wellington in the southeastern corner of the seat to Moree in the northeast and Bourke in the northwest. It covers most of Mid-Western Regional Council and all of 18 other local government areas, namely Dubbo, Lachlan, Narromine, Wellington, Gwydir, Moree Plains, Narrabri, Bogan, Bourke, Brewarrina, Cobar, Coonamble, Gilgandra, Walgett, Warren and Warrumbungle.

History
The seat of Parkes was created as part of the expansion of the federal Parliament in 1984 as a seat in the west of NSW. It has always been held by the National Party. It shares its name with an earlier seat of Parkes, which was located in suburban Sydney from Federation until its abolition in 1969. The seat of Parkes is named after early NSW premier Henry Parkes, rather than the town of Parkes, which is not contained within the seat.

Parkes was first won in 1984 by National Party candidate Michael Cobb. Cobb held the seat for 14 years, retiring in 1998 after being convicted of offenses related to rorting his travel expenses. He was replaced by Tony Lawler, who held the seat for one term, retiring in 2001.

The seat was won in 2001 by John Cobb. Cobb served as a junior minister in the Howard government from 2005 to 2007. The redistribution before the 2006 election shifted the boundaries of Parkes towards the abolished seat of Gwydir, with much of the northwest transferred into Calare, and Cobb was elected as the Member for Calare. He was succeeded in Parkes by former Mayor of Gwydir Shire, Mark Coulton. Coulton was re-elected in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Parkes is a very safe Nationals seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Coulton NAT 53,154 59.23 +11.07
Andrew Brooks ALP 19,081 21.26 -3.75
John Clements IND 9,146 10.19 +10.19
Matt Parmeter GRN 5,028 5.60 +2.68
Mick Colless IND 3,326 3.71 +3.71

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mark Coulton NAT 61,789 68.86 +5.19
Andrew Brooks ALP 27,946 31.14 -5.19
Polling places in Parkes at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, Dubbo in orange, East in green, North East in purple, North West in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Parkes at the 2010 federal election. Central in blue, Dubbo in orange, East in green, North East in purple, North West in red, West in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Those booths in the Dubbo council area have been grouped together. The other five areas each cover more than one council area, breaking down along the following lines:

  • Central – Coonamble, Gilgandra, Narromine and Warren.
  • East – Mid-Western, Warrumbungle and Wellington.
  • North East – Gwydir, Moree Plains and Narrabri.
  • North West – Bourke, Brewarrina and Walgett.
  • West – Bogan, Cobar and Lachlan.

The Nationals won a majority in all six areas, ranging from 58.5% in North West to 73.8% in North East.

Voter group GRN % NAT 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Dubbo 6.37 68.28 17,496 19.50
East 6.40 64.51 16,820 18.74
North East 3.11 73.81 13,859 15.44
Central 4.05 68.34 8,567 9.55
West 5.17 66.76 5,879 6.55
North West 7.82 58.51 4,066 4.53
Other votes 6.23 72.04 23,048 25.68
Two-party-preferred votes in Parkes at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in Parkes at the 2010 federal election. Click to enlarge.
Two-party-preferred votes in Dubbo at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Dubbo at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mudgee at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mudgee at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wellington at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wellington at the 2010 federal election.

4 COMMENTS

  2. Is that your personal prediction, so89, or do you have poll data or other such evidence for the claim?

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