ALP 5.8%
Incumbent MP
Bernie Ripoll, since 1998.
Geography
Oxley covers the southwestern suburbs of the City of Brisbane and eastern parts of the City of Ipswich. Suburbs include Redbank, Forest Lake, Richlands, Durack, Inala, Jamboree Heights and Jindalee.
History
The seat of Oxley was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1949 election. After first being held by the Liberal Party for a decade, it has almost always been won by the ALP, except for the 1996 election, when it was won by disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson, who later formed the One Nation party.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron served as a minister in the Menzies government from 1956 until his defeat at the 1961 election, when he was defeated by former police officer and Labor candidate Bill Hayden.
Hayden served as Member for Oxley for 27 years. He joined Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1972, and served as Treasurer for the final five months of the Whitlam government in 1975. Hayden was elected Leader of the Opposition after Gough Whitlam’s resignation after the 1977 election, and led the party to an improved position in 1980.
Hayden faced a leadership threat from former ACTU president Bob Hawke, who had entered Parliament in 1980. Hawke failed to win a ballot in 1982. In early 1983 Hayden resigned as leader and was replaced by Hawke, only hours before Malcolm Fraser called an early election. After Bob Hawke’s win, Hayden was appointed Foreign Minister. He served in this role until he was appointed Governor-General in 1988, at which point he resigned from Parliament.
The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Les Scott. Scott held the seat for the remainder of the Hawke/Keating government, up to the 1996 election. The Liberal Party preselected former Ipswich councillor Pauline Hanson as their candidate in 1996. Shortly before the election she was quoted in local papers criticising government assistance for indigenous Australians, which resulted in her disendorsement as a Liberal candidate. With the ballot papers already printed with the Liberal Party’s name attached to Hanson, she gained a high profile and managed to win the seat with a large swing.
Hanson was a prominent independent MP and, in 1997, founded the One Nation party in support of her political views. The party had a strong result at the Queensland state election in early 1998 and she was predicted to perform strongly at the next federal election. Her hopes fell short at the 1998 election, where One Nation only managed to elect a single Senator, despite a national result of over 8%. Hanson contested the new seat of Blair, which now covered Ipswich, which had previously been included in Oxley. Despite coming first on primary votes, Hanson lost due to the ALP and Liberal Party swapping preferences.
Hanson continued to lead One Nation until 2003, running for the Senate in 2001 in Queensland and as an independent for the NSW Legislative Council in 2003 with the support of the original One Nation party, against the breakaway One Nation NSW party. She went to prison in 2003 for electoral fraud over the registration of One Nation in Queensland, but this was overturned later that year. Despite vowing not to return to politics, she ran as an independent for the Senate in Queensland in 2004 and 2007, and for Beaudesert at the 2009 Queensland state election. She has since decided to move to the United Kingdom, and is not expected to stand again.
Hanson’s seat of Oxley was won in 1998 by ALP candidate Bernie Ripoll, and he has held the seat ever since.
Candidates
- Andrew Nguyen (Liberal National)
- Frank Karg (Democratic Labour Party)
- Martin Stephenson (Greens)
- Kathleen Hewlett (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Scott Moerland (Rise Up Australia)
- Ricky Tang (Palmer United Party)
- Bernie Ripoll (Labor)
- Carrie McCormack (Family First)
Assessment
Oxley has been a long-standing Labor seat. Only once was it lost, to Pauline Hanson in 1996. Despite this long history, a margin of less than 6% for a Labor seat in Queensland is far from safe.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 31,985 | 44.71 | -10.91 |
| Tarnya Smith | LNP | 27,431 | 38.35 | +2.97 |
| Des Hoban | GRN | 8,436 | 11.79 | +6.49 |
| Timothy Stieler | FF | 3,682 | 5.15 | +3.18 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Bernie Ripoll | ALP | 39,894 | 55.77 | -5.57 |
| Tarnya Smith | LNP | 31,640 | 44.23 | +5.57 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Ipswich have been grouped as ‘South-West’. Booths in the City of Brisbane have been split into South-East and North.
The ALP won majorities of over 60% in the south-east and south-west, while the Liberal National Party won over 57% of the two-party vote in the north of the seat.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 10.89 | 61.05 | 21,979 | 30.73 |
| South-West | 11.92 | 62.49 | 19,351 | 27.05 |
| North | 11.82 | 42.89 | 16,518 | 23.09 |
| Other votes | 13.03 | 53.34 | 13,686 | 19.13 |
Double blow for Bernie Ripoll.
The gap between the major parties continues to narrow in Oxley according to two betting sites.
This morning Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifting away from $1.50 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP firming from $2.30 to $2.15.
The momentum of support for the LNP is also reflected in the latest Sports Bet odds in Oxley with support for Labor deteriorating from $1.39 to $1.60. In contrast, support for the LNP strengthens from $2.90 to $2.25.
I have just moved to this electorate and did a bit of research on candidates – Bernie Ripoll seems to be one of those from the class of 1998 who have just not really achieved or contributed much more than the usual local member scripted guff you hear from the party machine. A shame Palmer United do not have a candidate in Oxley – I would prefer if they did.
I will be voting Kathleen Hewlett Katter’s Australian Party, Sick of the two big parties. TIME FOR A CHANGE. Bob Katter’s policies are worth having a look at.
Lol, says ‘Confused.’
Sorry, no judgement on your vote, but the wording made me chuckle.
Surge of support for Rudd Labor with the gap widening between the two major parties.
As of today, Sports Bet odds in Oxley shows that support for Labor has tightened from $1.60 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP has dwindled from $2.25 to $4.00.
Still think that Nguyen is a chance here. A lot of people saying how lazy Ripoll is and as he claims, “Bernie works for you” they are wanting their money back as he is a dud employee.
Support for Rudd Labor is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds.
This morning Centrebet odds in Oxley show that support for Labor firms from $1.60 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.15 to $4.00.
With or without Rudd, Nguyen can win the seat. This candidate brings a completely different dynamic to the seat that no other LNP candidate in any other seat brings at the moment. His personal support especially in the safe ALP areas of Inala etc is pretty strong. Although he may not win those booths, he will obtain a 2PP vote higher than any other conservative candidate out there -10-15% swings in those booths alone. I’m also confident he will be able to turn Forest Lake around as well.
Further surge in support for Rudd Labor in this seat.
This afternoon Centrebet odds in Oxley show that support for Labor firms from $1.20 to $1.10 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $4.00 to $5.50.
Yeah, with K Rudd as PM, I’d say the chances of an LNP win here are slim. Rudd’s will make a big difference in the Centenary suburbs, where the LNP may still win a majority, but with 51/52% rather than 57%, and in the south-west, which will help to offset some potential flow to the LNP candidate in the Inala/Forest Lake area
@Macca-BNE: Your figure seems to be a little bit too low looking at some of the polling. 51/52% indicates Rudd will win some booths in the Centenary, at his peak in the 2007 Ruddslide the LNP won Jindalee- 61%, Jindalee- 55%, Jamboree Heights- 53%, Middle Park- 53% then the Oxley booths come out at about 51-52% but they are only a few hundred votes each vs a few thousand for the old Ryan booths.
I have trouble seeing how this seat would go with Rudd in the leadership and on current polling. This was one Labor had to worry about but would probably hold before the change. Given that Queensland has flipped from one of Labor’s weakest to one of its strongest states, it would seem this is a Labor hold even if national polling slips back to the 45% 2PP range again.
What everyone is forgetting about this seat is it will not go with the uniform swing. It will be higher than the uniform swing by about 3-6%. I would say the seat is either line-ball or Nguyen is just ahead. Ripoll’s failure to work the safe areas of Inala, Durack etc is going to kill him and I believe Nguyen has worked the marginal booths to death… so much that they are probably sick of seeing him.
But given that Queensland seems to be swinging Labor, Nguyen needs to buck the trend by like 8-10%. Very, very hard for even if what you say about his campaign ability to do.
And I can’t really see him appealing to the South-West of the district much either.
@morgieb. You are assuming the poll figures stay the same. The 51-49 national poll is the best Rudd can do. Those QLD swings are unrealistic, even for Rudd. It’s the sugarhit the electorate has been asking for and the sugar will be less sweet as the campaign forges ahead particularly if the election is going to be in October.
QLD will see seats won and lose from both sides. All I am saying is that Nguyen’s personal vote is being massively underestimated by both sides of politics. Finally, a personal vote isn’t just gained by working hard for 12 months (as many candidates can do that)… a personal vote comes from their connection with a particular part of the community.
Just saying.
More support for Rudd Labor in this seat.
The latest Sports Bet odds show that support for Labor firming from $1.20 to $1.08 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $4.00 to $6.50.
Have a look at the BCC election results for 2008 and 2012 and you may see something hidden in them.
Very true Mr Craig.
People are underestimating what can happen out here.
Mr_Craig and Rosemary – either you don’t live in Brisbane, you haven’t lived here long, or you haven’t been interested in politics until recently.
We definitely do not see much overlap between party votes at local level and at federal level, in Queensland’s south east. People routinely vote one way at the local elections, and a completely different way at the federal elections, even when they’re at around the same time.
What’s more, Queensland has a tendency to have a kind of “overcorrection” pattern, where if two levels of government are held by one party, we tend to vote for another party in the other level of government. The Brisbane area has LNP at both local and state level; they’re less likely to therefore vote LNP at the federal level than they would be if Labor was in a local or state level.
Nguyen is definitely a chance here. Agree with Rosemary he has worked the marginal booths to death. Very energetic and has been everywhere for the past 12 months. Ripoll on the other hand does seem quite lazy, he seems to have neglected the inala area in recent times.
Also important to note that Nguyen has the official support of the Vietnamese Community, some 7,000 of whom live in the area. I believe his chances are being understimated, however would be much higher had Rudd not have returned for sure. Keep an eye on this one. Should be interesting.
Hello Glen, you didn’t think it was interesting that Richlands Ward swung 20%+ in Labors favour at the local elections but most other wards swung to the LNP- most notably Matthew Bourke in Jamboree the ward right next door who swung close to 25% in LNP favour.
Kind of defied the rest of Brisbane trend there 😉
But obviously Glen you haven’t been living in Brisbane all that long to have missed that 😉
7000 Vietnamese people doesn’t seem very high in my opinion. It might be the difference in a marginal electorate but less so in a safe-ish one. Fowler this isn’t – the Vietnamese population there is 4 times higher, although I will admit here the Vietnamese population isn’t insignificant.
Although movement against the grain in Inala wouldn’t surprise me, Nguyen would still need to perform well in Ipswich (which I think will be less welcoming to him) and the Centenary Suburbs (which are solidly LNP anyway). From your statements it looks like it’ll behave differently to the rest of Queensland, but absent a Rudd implosion I can’t see Nguyen winning.
DB, any thoughts?
The Federal election for Oxley seat I feel will be anyone’s game Ripoll (Lab) works for you have not even seen him in this area Nguyen (LIB) may have a chance bit my opinion is he to young with not enough life skills no PUP party Hewlett (KAP) dark horse seen her around everywhere lot of people talking about her undecided Karg (DLP) do not know anything about him perhaps another dark horse never seen him Stephenson (GREENS) ???? Dickinson (PPAIP) ?????
@Jindalee.
Do you know how old Nguyen is and what age do you think it is appropriate for someone to run for Parliament?
OK, that’s a little confusing. Andrew Nguyen is running for the LNP in Oxley, and Andrew Nguyen is running for the Liberal party in Fowler. The Oxley Nguyen will be 30 years old by the end of the year (gotten from his Facebook page, which provides a birthday and year), while the Fowler Nguyen is apparently 70 years old.
Based on what I’ve been reading, the Andrew Nguyen the Younger has a much better shot of winning. But I’ll elaborate on that over on the Fowler page.
More support for Labor according to Centrebet.
This morning, Centrebet odds in Oxley show support for Labor tightens from $1.12 to $1.10 whilst support for the LNP eases from $5.25 to $6.00.
I long for the old Ryan suburbs being given back to Ryan. Sick of being lumped into suburbs that are not in the same socioeconomic circumstance and so having a member who does NOTHING to represent us. Bernie Ripoll is an invisible man. Despise him.
Here here I am over the cookie cutter do nothing Bernie. Labor for a very long time have had the attitude of they could put a trained monkey in to the seat of Oxley and the ever so faithful blind money Labor voters would just vote them in. Until the array of Labor lackies are gone in the area then we are in for more of the same unfortunately. I hope and pray that Andrew gets in. He is a hard worker and decent fellow people have to really think hard this time around and if they vote in Bernie again then more fool them and pity the rest of us who ever so much want a change.
Chris and Alice. I suggest if you dislike Bernie that much then vote for Andrew Nguyen. People are calling me a stooge for saying there is an upset here on the cards… but I still believe it. And the stooge in me thinks we will lose Brisbane and maybe Bonner…
Don’t worry Rosemary I will be voting for Andrew. I will not even be giving preferances to anyone else either it will be one vote and one vote only that will be for Andrew. All you have to do is look around Oxley and see what Bernie does and let his merits speak for themselves. He does very little and only spits the Labor dribble and diatribe no voice of his own.
Alice, your vote will be informal if you do that. At the federal level, you have to number all of the boxes in the House. In other words, you can’t refuse to give preferences to other candidates. You’re going to HAVE to choose which other candidates get your preferences.
Also, the word is “drivel”, not “dribble”.
Alice, although I’m delighted you’re voting for Andrew Nguyen – you will need to follow his how to vote card in order for your vote to be formal. At a federal level you must number every box which means allocating your preference to other candidates (including Bernie Ripoll).
Good points Glen and electionlova. More than 800,000 informal votes in the 2010… you wonder what the result would have been if they all voted formally.
Went for a drive this morning through the Durack, Inala and Forest Lake sections of this electorate. From what I saw there seemed to be strong levels of support for the LNP – outnumbering ALP roadsides 4-1 and hearing lots of car horns in support.
I’m beginning to be swayed that this seat may swing more than the Queensland average towards the LNP.
Encouragement for the LNP according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Oxley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.08 to $1.14 whilst support for the LNP firms from $6.00 to $5.00.
Ron Dickinson is no longer running for Australian Independents…
Also, Carrie McCormack is running for Family First and Ricky Tang is running for PUP.
Sorry for the triple post. The ballot draw was on Friday and on Nguyen’s FB page, he drew number 1 and Ripoll drew 7 of 8 candidates.
It’s going to take me a little while to update all 150 seats to reflect the official ballot draw.
With Nguyen drawing number 1 and KAP preferencing the LNP in SEQ, it seems this election is the LNP’s best chance to pick up this seat since 1996.
Macca – it’s not clear who KAP will preference outside of the special ALP deal seats. Katter hasn’t actually said all other seats will preference LNP, just that it’s expected that most of them will.
As for the donkey vote effect, apparently it tends to be somewhere around 1-2% of the vote in the House… probably a little more, I’d imagine, in seats with a lot of candidates, and less in seats with few candidates. Personally, I’d rather see those people just put in informal ballots than skew the results in that way (unfortunately, it’s illegal to actually suggest that people vote informally, even though it’s better for democracy than donkey voting), and I’d love to see a reform that puts an extra box on the ballot that says “I dislike all of the candidates and choose not to vote for any of them” – too many people tick that box, and the election in that seat must be run again with new candidates.
Glen, I agree. And the election should be rerun if the number of informal / “I refuse to vote for any candidate” exceeds the TCP margin. Then parties might actually put some effort into telling people why they SHOULD vote for them, rather than why they shouldn’t vote for their opponent.
Have spoken to KAP preferences have not been sealed as yet Kathleen Hewlett feels a person voting for her is set in stone if they wanted to vote LNP or ALP they would have.
There is an article floating around from the Courier Mail which I will try to find stating that it is expected that KAP will be preferencing the Coalition ahead of Labor in the rest of the QLD seats except for the 4 central QLD seats already agreed with Labor. I’ll try and find the article again when I get time, but we can just wait and see I suppose.
It seems PUP will be preferencing the LNP ahead of Labor in QLD at least.
DB, I’ve read the same in a few places now, http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/labor-pins-hopes-on-preference-deals-with-katter-and-greens/story-fnbcok0h-1226699505033
I have $50 on the LNP @ $6.50 to win Oxley. I reckon Ngyuen can do it as Ripoll has done stuff all for the electorate and hasn’t been seen once, he is the Phantom. Odds on the LNP have shortened to $5.50 and I reckon they will keep getting shorter
Yep, let’s all vote in Libs and then we can stuff the country the same way Campbell has done to Queensland!
[SNIP – personal attack] the ALP have stuffed this country and there is evidence that since the LNP have come in that things are turning around since they have had to fix all of Beatty/Blighs mess. When will you rusted on Labor people get it that Labor always wrecks Australia and that the LNP have to step in to fix it.
philbo, there’s no need to get rude, and especially no reason to call somebody “simple minded” just because they disagree with you. If you can’t remain civil, don’t post at all.
General proclamations on how good or bad a party is are useless. Let’s stick to information on the seats. Lots of claims are made regarding Campbell Newman. The fact is his party is still polling 59% on a 2PP basis in the lastest Newspoll in QLD.