ALP 1.1%
Incumbent MP
Graham Perrett, since 2007.
Geography
Southern Brisbane. Moreton covers suburbs on the southern side of the Brisbane River to the south of the centre of Brisbane, including Sunnybank, Runcorn, Eight Mile Plains, Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Rocklea, Salisbury, Moorooka, Oxley, Corinda, Graceville and Fairfield.
History
Moreton is an original federation electorate. For most of its history it has been held by the Liberal Party and its predecessors, who held the seat from 1906 until 1990, but since 1990 it has become a bellwether seat, being won by the party that won the election nationally.
Moreton was won in 1901 by independent labour candidate James Wilkinson, a former member of the colonial Legislative Assembly. Wilkinson was re-elected as an independent in 1903, and rejoined the ALP in 1904.
Wilkinson lost Moreton in 1906 to Anti-Socialist candidate Hugh Sinclair. Sinclair held the seat for over a decade, representing the Commonwealth Liberal Party and the Nationalist Party until his retirement in 1919.
Sinclair was succeeded in Moreton by former state MP Arnold Wienholt, also a Nationalist. Wienholt only held the seat for one term, retiring in 1922.
The seat was won in 1922 by Nationalist candidate Joseph Francis. Francis held the seat for over three decades. He served as a minister in the first term of the Lyons government from 1932 to 1934, and again served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his retirement in 1955.
Moreton was won in 1955 by Liberal candidate James Killen. Killen was on the right wing of the Liberal Party, and held the seat for the next 29 years. At the 1961 election the Menzies government barely held on, and Killen’s seat of Moreton was the closest result. Indeed, Killen only held on due to Communist Party preferences leaking away from the Labor candidate. Killen served as a minister in the Gorton government from 1969 until 1971 but was dropped by William McMahon when he became Prime Minister.
Killen served as Minister for Defence in the Fraser government from 1975 until 1982, when a reshuffle saw him moved into a more junior role for the final year of the Fraser government. He retired in 1983 after the defeat of the Fraser government, triggering a by-election.
The ensuing by-election was won by Liberal candidate Donald Cameron. Cameron had previously held the seat of Griffith from 1966 to 1977, and then the seat of Fadden until the 1983 election, when he was defeated. He returned to Parliament as Member for Moreton and held it until the 1990 election, when he was defeated by Labor candidate Garrie Gibson, ending 84 years of Moreton being held by conservative parties.
Gibson held the seat until the 1996 election, when he lost to Liberal candidate Gary Hardgrave. Hardgrave served as a junior minister from 2001 until January 2007, when he was removed from the ministry in a reshuffle. Hardgrave lost the 2007 election to Labor candidate Graham Perrett.
Perrett’s 6% margin was cut to just over 1% in 2010.
Candidates
- Graham Perrett (Labor)
- Wayne Grunert (Citizens Electoral Council)
- Chris Mallcott (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Hayden Muscat (Future Party)
- Carolyn Ferrando (Family First)
- Malcolm Cole (Liberal National)
- Jeremy Davey (Palmer United Party)
- Bruce Fry (Rise Up Australia)
- Elissa Jenkins (Greens)
Assessment
Moreton is very marginal and in recent decades has swung as a bellwether. A uniform swing that gave Moreton to the LNP would give the Coalition 78 seats in the House.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Malcolm Cole | LNP | 35,182 | 43.40 | +2.56 |
| Graham Perrett | ALP | 29,190 | 36.01 | -12.12 |
| Elissa Jenkins | GRN | 12,882 | 15.89 | +8.74 |
| Steve Christian | FF | 2,787 | 3.44 | +1.97 |
| Lee Nightingale | DLP | 1,018 | 1.26 | +1.26 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Graham Perrett | ALP | 41,447 | 51.13 | -4.88 |
| Malcolm Cole | LNP | 39,612 | 48.87 | +4.88 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas:
- North-East – Annerley, Fairfield, Moorooka, Moorvale, Rocklea, Tarragindi, Tennyson, Wellers Hill, Yeronga.
- South – Acacia Ridge, Coopers Plains, Eight Mile Plains, Kuraby, Macgregor, Robertson, Runcorn, Salisbury, Sunnybank, Warrigal.
- West – Chelmer, Corinda, Graceville, Oxley, Sherwood.
The south makes up a majority of votes cast. The ALP won a 56% majority in the north-east, and the LNP narrowly won in the south and west.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 12.75 | 49.73 | 34,244 | 42.22 |
| North-East | 20.86 | 56.43 | 16,618 | 20.50 |
| West | 17.75 | 48.44 | 11,463 | 14.14 |
| Other votes | 16.09 | 50.65 | 18,754 | 23.14 |
This is my home seat. I only moved here last year, but from what I’ve seen of the current member, Graham Perrett, he seems like a relatively good local member.
It doesn’t really bother me who wins the election overall, but I hope the ALP can take some votes back off the Greens, particularly in the northern section of the seat (my area).
Perrett has to be good. Any Labor MP or candidate in marginal or fairly safe seats to have held on against the Queensland backlash over the ousting of Kevvie in 2010 has to be good. D’Ath in Petrie is similar in that respect. Perrett arguably should be dead meat as far as the next election is concerned – but Newman’s public service job cuts might save him.
This is one Queensland seat where Labor may not do as badly, I still think they’ll lose due to having such a wafer thin margin. However, Graham Perrett is a good local member, and due to the State Member Carl Judge leaving the LNP fold, people may be hesitant to vote LNP federally in this seat. Labor could successfully sandbag this seat.
I agree with electionlova on this Graham Perret is pushing hard !
I agree with Warren Grzic. I am a long time Labor voter and reside in the heart of the Moreton electorate and also believe that Graham Perrett will lose this seat. Most voters seem to distinguish between Federal and State issues such as Premier Newmans Public service job cuts and this will not save Graham Perrett in Moreton. Just ask Victorian voters in 1996 federal election when Jeff Kennetts Public Service job cuts did not prevent Labor losing some seats there.
Sports Bet as of tonight have the following odds for the winner in Moreton: $1.20 Coalition, $4.00 Labor.
Update on latest odds from Sports Bet on the winner in Moreton: Labor has firmed from $4.00 to $3.65 whist the Coalition has drifted slightly from $1.20 to $1.24. However, I still believe Graham Perrett is on track to lose this seat especially as the current Prime Minister is unpopular in Queensland.
The recent polls show there is a about a 4 to 5 two party preferred swing to the Coalition in Queensland since the 2010 election. On these figures Moreton will be the first seat to fall to the Coalition in Queensland.
Well thats it for Mr Perrett, I had some confidence for him in February but now being March 26th 2013 the electorate have had enough.
Mr Perrett has openly backed Ms Gillard and I feel that this will place a BIG RED TARGET on his back and he will suffer a swing of 7.0% plus against him.
Surprisingly the latest Sports Bet odds in Moreton show that Labor has firmed from $3.65 to $2.75 and the Coalition has drifted from $1.24 to $1.40.
However, I still believe that Graham Perrett will lose his seat especially as the recent polls have Labor heading for a result like the 1975 or 1977 election loss.
I can’t see Labor holding on to seats with large Green votes. The Greens will lose a lot of votes here and that can only help the LNP. Yes Perrett is a good local but he is without a sophomore surge this time and therefore, this is already built into his vote.
I also question whether the Greens will actually win a Senate seat in QLD this time.
I agree DB. There has been little movement in Sports Bet odds in this seat in recent weeks but it still shows the Coalition are strongly favoured to win this seat. Apart from the large Green votes, there is still strong unpopularity with the Labor brand and the Prime Minister in Queensland. Therefore, this makes it difficult for members like Graham Perrett, especially in a marginal seat, to retain it for the government.
This morning the latest odds from Centrebet on the winner in Moreton show that Labor has drifted from $3.40 to $3.60 whilst the LNP has firmed from $1.24 to $1.22. Therefore, Graham Perrett who is my local member will need a miracle to retain this seat for the government.
These results with recent opinion polls show that Labor is heading for a federal election loss in terms of two party preferred votes results similar to 1975.
Lurch – actually worse based on the 4 major polls this week
Thanks DB – I also noticed the 2 party preferred votes in the 4 major polls this week. If the two party preferred vote in Queensland drops below 39.8% which was achieved in 1975 then Labor will only hold one seat – Griffith.
More bad news for my local member Graham Perrett.
The momentum continues with the Coalition in Moreton with the latest Sports Bet odds showing that Labor has drifted from $2.75 to $2.90 whilst the LNP has firmed from $1.40 to $1.35.
Bad news continues for my local member Graham Perrett.
The momentum is still with the Coalition in Moreton. This afternoon, the odds from Centrebet on the winner in this seat show that the LNP has firmed from $1.22 to $1.15 whilst Labor has drifted from $3.60 to $4.05.
Lurch – I’ve heard internal Labor polling puts this at about 57/43 to the Coalition so I suspect there is some insider knowledge movement here in the betting. I haven’t seen Liberal polling in this area for a while.
That’s an eight percent swing… Seen statewide only Rudd would keep his seat.
News gets even worse for my local member Graham Perrett.
According to Sports Bet odds this afternoon in Moreton the LNP has tightened from $1.35 to $1.13 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.90 to $4.25.
Got some good Graham Perrett propoganda in the mail the other day (complaining about the current draft Brisbane City Plan and blaming it on Lord Mayor Quirk and Premier Newman). I really hate this sort of blame game between levels of government, and I’ve never thought it really helped. Generally most people understand what issues are local issues (as this is), what are state issues and what are federal issues.
Is it just me or does anyone else think this is a bad campaign tactic?
Perhaps. You may be surprised how many people don’t understand the responsibilities of the different levels of government.
Yeah, I can understand confusion where funding may come from multiple sources (health, education, major roads), but most people would understand that City Planning is the responsibility of the City Council. In the way that people know defence and immigration are federal responsibilities and most major roads are a state responsibility.
Better news for my local member Graham Perrett with a boost of support for Rudd Labor.
According to the latest Sports Bet odds in Moreton the gap is closing between the two major parties with support for Labor strengthening from $4.25 to $2.70 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.13 to $1.40.
Internal polling now shows that Perrett would retain this seat.
Thanks for the internal polling DB.
Support for Rudd Labor is also confirmed in the latest Centrebet odds.
This morning Centrebet odds in Moreton show the gap between the major parties has closed significantly with support for Labor strengthening from $4.05 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP dropping from $1.15 to $1.80.
Wow, didn’t expect Perrett to be in front despite the change of leader. It will be interesting to see if this holds. I may go bet on Cole.
QO
Whatever happened to Perrett’s absolute commitment to resign if there was a change in leadership??. Truly gutless.
Well winediamond, you might recall that those comments weren’t made at the recent challenge. If you wanna talk gutless, what about Bronwyn Bishop knifing turnbull so she could have a junior portfolio, or Costello causing all the trouble about leadership in government and when they are in opposition, walks away
Surge for Rudd Labor is also confirmed in the latest Sports Bet odds.
This morning Sports Bet odds in Moreton show the gap has closed between the major parties with support for Labor firming from $2.70 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.40 to $1.60.
Observer
Wasn’t aware there was a timing qualification. Don’t recall one ever being made. So Costello is gutless ??. So what??. So Bronny wanted a deal?? . So what??. Perrett is still gutless. Just cause you set a low bar, does’t mean anyone else has to tolerate excuses.
Should this seat fall to the LNP, I find it very hard for Labor to win overall. It would suggest the swing in QLD with Rudd is not going to be as great as the ALP need to offset losses in other states.
I’m with you DB. While the ALP is looking to gain seats rather than just save the furniture, I really don’t know that they’ll be able to. There’s no doubt that they’ll do a lot better, but no guarantees.
This mornings Quarterly Newspoll with the LNP leading the ALP by 59-41 suggests that the ALP needs to do more work if its to win back the Seats it lost in 2010, even with Rudd as leader. Sportsbet currently has the LNP at $1.60 and the ALP at $2.00 for Moreton. Almost all of the Seats that the LNP won off the ALP in 2010 have the LNP at rather short quotes to retain their seats.
Worth noting that that poll is for state seats/politics not federal.
Hi PJ, I acknowledge that I didn’t mention that, but the message is still the same.
Angus, I don’t think it’s necessarily fair to apply a state poll to the federal electoral situation. People generally can differentiate between the issues and the personalities present at the two levels of government.
I’ll leave it to other people to determine their opinions on federal Labor, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that Queensland Labor is a rabble and almost everyone would agree that regardless of what happens federally, there is a 0% chance of the ALP winning the next state election.
Most, if not all, of the quarterly poll was done before the spill, so to the extent it is possible to translate state polling into something useful for analysing the next election, it can’t be done with this.
Just thought I’d note that both Centrebet and Sportsbet have Labor ahead in odds in Moreton. Right now, Sportsbet has Labor at 1.67 and LNP at 2.10. Centrebet has Labor at 1.70 and LNP at 2.05.
Those odds are outrageous. If you are an LNP betting person… bet on Moreton now!
Glen, thanks for the post on the latest betting odds in Moreton.
These odds continue the support for Rudd Labor in this electorate. Centrebet odds show that support for Labor firms from $1.90 to $1.70 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.85 to $2.05. this momentum is also reflected in the latest Sports Bet odds with support for Labor tightening from $2.00 to $1.67 whilst support for the LNP easing from $1.60 to $2.10.
Further support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.
This evening, Centrebet odds in Moreton shows support for Labor tightening from $1.70 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP easing from $2.05 to $2.20.
I laugh. Sorry. It’s not going to be THAT bad for the LNP in QLD. Is Rudd so good that he would achieve a better result in QLD than ALP did at the LAST election while the other states lag behind?
Yes Rosemary yes he would
Yes, Rosemary, Rudd could achieve a better result in QLD than ALP did at the last election. Why? Because at the last election, many Queenslanders saw Gillard as the woman who deposed the PM, the local. The swing against Labor in Victoria was 1.9%, in NSW it was 6.8%. In QLD, it was 9.3% – the only ‘state’ with a comparable swing was Northern Territory, which saw a swing of 9.7%. ALP’s seat count dropped by 16 total at the election, and they lost 9 seats in QLD alone.
Rudd becoming PM again is going to see a swing in ALP’s favour at this election up here. On the flipside, we may see a significant swing against them in Victoria.
In other words, although Rudd is a lot better than you think, Rosemary, the reason why there’s so much expectation of ALP gains in QLD is that Rudd is a Queenslander. As many have pointed out, Queenslanders are a lot more “patriotic” to our state than you might expect.
Even though Rudd is a QLDer, I do not see how people can totally ignore the Government’s record and return QLD to the position it was in 2007. That’s not patriotic. That’s like saying the LNP should run Peter Dutton… I think the QLD issue is a bit overstated for this particular election. In 2007, Rudd was fresh and people had high hopes for him – QLDers were proud of him. In 2013, it is totally different. Even with the QLD effect to say the LNP would not pick up Moreton is outrageous. In other words, I think Rudd may save SOME furniture, but that he would save every seat is just not possible this time around.
Rosemary, either you’re not understanding, or your clear bias is preventing you from accepting what I said. We’ll ignore the question of the government’s record, as that’s not really relevant to this discussion (if you can’t separate your political views from your argument, then I’m not really interested in further explaining this effect to you).
Rudd is quite popular in Queensland. And Gillard “knifing” Rudd in 2010 angered Queenslanders: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland-voters-angry-at-kevin-rudd-coup/story-e6freon6-1225884678324
It’s not so much that having a leader from the state will boost your poll numbers. It’s that the PM’s home state will usually perform better than other states.
Queensland saw a bigger-than-expected swing against Labor in 2010. This election, it is likely to correct itself, so that if the nationwide swing is, say, 1% against ALP, then in Queensland it will probably be 2% in favour of the ALP. The reverse is likely in Victoria, although the extent of it is hard to judge.
Couldn’t agree more Glen
This chick also reckons the Liberals will win Oxley, which is held for Labor by 6%. Don’t argue with her. She’s a biased hack.
Moreton is most likely gone. If anyone can overcome the Rudd factor it is Malcolm Cole, but I don’t think he will.
Hi everyone.
This morning there were numerous “Rudd 4 Qld/Graham Perrett” signs staffed by Labor volunteers at the information booths in the northern end of the electorate.
I live in the northern end of the electorate and for the first time this year there were more Labor than LNP volunteers staffing information booths near the shopping centres.
I agree with the earlier comments that the Rudd factor is happening in this seat. Currently the sitting member Graham Perrett is the slight favourite to retain Moreton especially if he can win back the muticultural groups in the southern end of the electorate.
I noticed that on the weekend too Lurch. There were ALP volunteers out EVERYWHERE.
I live at Yeronga and on Saturday went over to Sunnybank and on that trip would have passed at least 10 groups of them, with only 1 LNP group out.
The ALP has definitely been reenergised.