Mitchell – Australia 2013

LIB 17.2%

Incumbent MP
Alex Hawke, since 2007.

Geography
North-Western Sydney. Mitchell mainly covers parts of the Hills, including Baulkham Hills, Castle Hill, Winston Hills and Kellyville.

History
Mitchell was created for the 1949 election. It has almost always been won by the Liberal Party, except for two elections where the ALP won the seat, and it has become a solidly Liberal seat over recent decades.

Mitchell was won by Liberal candidate Roy Wheeler in 1949. Wheeler was re-elected at every election in the 1950s, but lost Mitchell to ALP candidate John Armitage. Armitage only managed to hold on to the seat for one term, losing it to Liberal candidate Leslie Irwin in 1963, although he later held the safe Labor seat of Chifley from 1969 to 1983.

Irwin held Mitchell from 1963 until the 1972 election, when he was swept aside with the election of the Whitlam government, with Mitchell being won by Labor candidate Alfred Ashley-Brown. Ashley-Brown lost in 1974 to Liberal candidate Alan Cadman.

Cadman held Mitchell for over thirty years without rising to much prominence in the Liberal Party, and by the mid-2000s was one of only three MPs remaining from the time of the Whitlam government, along with Prime Minister John Howard and Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. Cadman served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the final years of the Fraser government and the early years of the Howard government, but didn’t rise any further.

After narrowly surviving a preselection challenge in 2004, Cadman faced a challenge in 2007 from prominent right-winger Alex Hawke, and decided to retire. Hawke easily won election in 2007, and won a second term in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Mitchell is a very safe Liberal seat.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Hawke LIB 52,465 62.66 +7.87
Nigel Gould ALP 22,046 26.33 -6.71
Colin Dawson GRN 6,363 7.60 +2.32
Brendon Prentice CDP 2,855 3.41 +0.82

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Alex Hawke LIB 56,229 67.16 +7.51
Nigel Gould ALP 27,500 32.84 -7.51

 

Polling places in Mitchell at the 2010 federal election. Baulkham Hills in green, Central in orange, North in blue, Winston Hills in yellow. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Mitchell at the 2010 federal election. Baulkham Hills in green, Central in orange, North in blue, Winston Hills in yellow. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. From north to south, these areas are North, Central, Baulkham Hills and Winston Hills.

The Liberal Party’s majority varied from 61.7% in Winston Hills to 71.8% in the north of the seat.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Central 7.19 68.52 21,296 25.43
North 5.76 71.76 20,605 24.61
Baulkham Hills 8.84 63.31 16,154 19.29
Winston Hills 8.12 61.66 10,179 12.16
Other votes 8.98 66.78 15,495 18.51
Two-party-preferred votes in Mitchell at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Mitchell at the 2010 federal election.

36 COMMENTS

  1. I’d like to get a radar in this electorate of what needs to change, theres a chance I could be running for this seat and I need to find out what the people are looking for in their chosen party.
    Are people sick of politicians….Good.. because I am not one.
    Muz

  2. My old electorate a lot more ethnically diverse these days hence Labor polling better in 2007 than for a long time.

  3. Geoff, I have some personal connections to Mitchell too. I think you will find the larger than average swing in 2007 was due to the treatment of Alan Cadman by Alex Hawke. There was extensive local coverage of how Cadman go rolled by his own party. It came across very poorly as Cadman was a popular local MP who attended every community event under the sun – sport clubs, ethnic groups, churches, schools. The swing back to the Liberals in 2010 in Mitchell was larger than the average swing back. Again this indicates the faithful returned to the party after initially expressing their anger at Mr Cadman’s treatment by Mr Hawke.

  5. OK.. key issue there.. id love to get many more of the key federal issues for Mitchell, having a good read up on the other boards too.

  6. I am running as a candidate for Palmer United.. Announced this morning. PLEASE Send me and federal level issues that I can take to my party. I have a nice list so far. but always good to hear from people.
    I will soon meet with people “Polly’s in the Pub” and I will also see where people think I should make the most impact.

    Thanks

  8. Thanks Blui3
    He certainly gets the headlines, and speaking honestly, it what he needs to do, and probably will continue to do. Its good PR.
    My opinion on NBN is that we have spent far too much for it (Australia’s largest ever single spend on one project) However I think Super Fast Broadband is needed to the door. I think our lives will change because we get it.
    I think Mr Palmers point is that for the money it will end up costing us, it will be paid off for many years. it also doesnt hit the budget as they deem these as infrastructure. Again his point is whether the 100 million was spent well..
    I met him last week and I can honestly say he is a good guy. Very inspirational and i hope he can make a real impact in Canberra.

  9. Thanks to the tally Room editor for adding me. If others want to email me direct, my email is murrayformitchell@gmail.com
    I have lots of other stuff to do to connect to people in Mitchell and Id be greatfull for any support / assistance / tips / tricks (Im sure there will be some tricks)

    Appreciated.

  10. I exprect PUP to do well here probably appealing to the older residents and if Alan Jones continues his campaign against Alex Hawke then this could see the margin whittled down by 7% VS PUP

  12. If murray is a good candidate pup could push 5 percent. Mitchell used to have a solid democrats vote.

  13. Sounds like I need to contact Mr Jones. Morgieb is also right in so far as its brave, and we know its a large task. But we have to have a go.
    Thanks… I am listening.

  14. Does anyone know who is sitting for ALP and any Independents?
    I am organising through Hills District Times and the Rouse Hill Times a Polly’s in the Pub night.

    A forum where public can enjoy an informal chat with us all and to ask the hard hitting questions. Hopefully somewhere like Castle Hill RSL, date to be determined.
    I am sure MP Alex Hawke will support it, so we need the others to get nominated and join in.

  15. Who is going to help with my “HOW TO VOTE” Cards

    Vote: 1 – Palmer United Party
    Vote: 2 – ????????????????
    Vote: 3 – ????????????????
    Vote: 4 – ????????????????

  16. Having lived in Mitchell, I have to say that it is extremely doubtful that any party will eat into Hawke’s advantage in this election. This seat, especially at the Kellyville/Castle Hill/Rouse Hill end, are enthusiastic supporters of Tony Abbott. This is not a moderate Liberal seat, by any stretch of the imagination.

    I can’t see Nigel Gould, who ran a campaign good enough to win in any marginal seat last time, running again for Labor. Gould’s success in 2007 came off the back of the Cadman factor, as well as the fact that he is a church-goer. A lot of people would have voted for Nigel, had he been a Liberal in 2010. If anything, the Liberal margin is around 5-6% down 2PP off what it should be, and that comes back to the fact that Alex Hawke does not appear to be that well liked in the electorate.

    Liberal 70-30 2PP here.

  17. Wow.. Thats brilliant.. I did read the Cadman factor. We haven’t yet got all the names and Mr Palmer is not letting on with any preferences, but its unlikely people will vote 1. LIB 2. ALP so we are going for the “Get rid of ALP, but we don’t think Tony’s doing a good job” vote.

    I was surprised he didnt go for gold today with an attempt at a no confidence vote against the Labor party.
    Personally Id like to see Joe Hockey run, and to see the return of the ever smiling Mr Costello, who would probably be the best credentialed treasurer for the job. BUT because they didn’t, I gave up on them.

  18. As stated earlier I have a lot of connection to Mitchell and you could probably tell a lot of respect for Alan Cadman. In fact I will be visiting the seat between now and the election. I wish Murray well as he seems enthusiastic, but really think it will be hard for him to make much of an impact in this seat. I may email you Murray as I know Liberals who vote for Hawke out of necessity and would like a chance to consider another conservative aligned person.

    I agree the swing was about Hawke and Cadman rather than Gould. I also know people in the electorate who know Gould through community organisations. Let’s just say the reputation he had may have hurt.

  19. Nigel Gould no longer lives in the electorate or the state i believe, he is living in Melbourne, I think that Labor will struggle to get a quality candidate but PUP should do OK here not enough to cause trouble to Hawke but enough to come 2nd and have a final result very similar to the current margin, unlikely he will get 70%+

  21. Thanks for the confidence, Id say we’d be fairly chuffed to give it that sort of shake.
    Starting to get lots of emails now coming in on issues, I will post some more tomoz to see if i can get at the heart of it.

  22. Morgieb Yes – Queensland is where they appear to be getting lots of traction, but with the collapse of the ALP I’m keen to find out who will run against Alex Hawke for Labor, so PUP could be the real alternative party. I dont think Mr Palmer makes it a secret that he has LNP values.

  23. So far these are the issues (filtered for federal) as lots of people are also putting local government issues in.
    Seat of Mitchell
    1. Cost of living – electricity – petrol – groceries
    2. Peak hour traffic – Always bad – Lots of hours driving – no family time
    3. Not that many entertainment complexes
    4. Superfast Broadband and getting it IN to the homes
    5. Breakdown of Families, complexities in Federal and Family Court issues.
    6. Mental Health
    7. Government seem to waste time and far too much of peoples money on talk, no action.

    If you have more pressing items, I meet with Palmer United next week.
    Thanks

  24. MS, this is really not the place to campaign or an appropriate place to solicit help in my view – Ben may disagree.

    I really do hope that the Tallyroom doesn’t end up being a site for candidates to advertise their poorly worded & seemingly not well thought out policies (a simple link to your parties website would suffice if it was needed), nor to solicit help for their campaign.

    Alas…..

  25. Thanks Yappo, I didn’t see the comment asking for booth workers at the time, but I have now deleted it and the follow-up comments.

    Murray, this is not the place to organise your campaign and seek out volunteers.

  26. I tend to agree, the tally room site seems to be is the sound of one hand clapping.
    Unsure why I wouldn’t be used to drum up support or discuss issues in a fully democratic method, but most conversations are with myself and the administrator.
    I remain truly honest and less bureaucratic than more rules thrown at people to silence them.
    Stand up people.. get excited.
    This post is MOST likely to be silenced by people in power..(the awesome power of owning a domain name that cost $10 and a free script to run it) and in direct opposition of free speech, and ones right to recruit booth workers via blogging websites that I thought were popular.

    “The candidate for Mitchell”…….”The candidate for Mitchell shall resume his seat”

  27. Murray, this website is about discussing the election, it’s not to be used as a tool for your own campaign. I’ll tolerate you occasionally promoting your candidacy but actively asking for people to help your campaign is too far – use your own website.

  28. Mr Schultz, you seem to have a flawed conception of freedom of speech. You have the right to freedom of speech, but you do not have the right to use someone else’s megaphone to do so. This site is not a recruitment tool, and the owner of the site has the right to prevent it from becoming one, as it is his site. It is not a publicly funded site, and thus you have no inherent right to even post here.

    The fact that you posted that little diatribe, effectively proclaiming that you were being singled out and silenced, demonstrates to me that you are not a truly serious candidate for this seat. I wish you luck in your campaign, but I suggest that you keep your hopes in check, because you are almost certainly going to be disappointed by the outcome of the election.

  29. Hardly disappointed, and perhaps I already have a reality check, and perhaps you don’t understand my motivations.. actually….I know you don’t.

    If the megaphone is sitting on the soap box and inviting people to speak, one would could talk gently to the crowd OR use the megaphone provided. Use some common sense, world is filling with do~gooders.. There were no rules about posting in Mitchell via this blog, why wouldn’t i raise issues that are real to the electorate and drum up some passion doing so. I AGREE this site is not the platform but more-so because of its patronage rather than your imaginary rules. I fail to agree with your red tape approach to rules and regulations when they are non existent.
    You are also right in that Greens member Ben has the right to stop the site being used for recruiting.. AND he CAN AND has done…, so whats the issue?

    Thank YOU! For some posts that are finally getting these boards ticking.

    Candidate for Mitchell you will be removed from the house…..!

  30. The impression that I have is that this will be one seat where an inexperienced minor party candidate will not poll more than a few % but that that candidate will make for a turbulent, ‘circus like’, chaotic campaign that will annoy the heck out of the two majors.

  32. Could the candidate Murray Schultz kindly elaborate on his ‘ helping disabled children in Sydney for 15 years with his small business’ ?- I have looked through your CV and haven’t been able to join the dots on that one ?

  34. That kind of information should be public knowledge and readily available for any of your local voters to see- I’m asking you on a public forum to elaborate on your services to disabled children in the past 15 years.
    It’s an emotive issue and has the potential to attract much needed voters, so I would like to see that you can substantiate your claims of serving the community ?

  35. PUP website overstated the years, and I asked them to correct that, it definitely wasnt in my bio to them. Perhaps its because I have a special needs son who is 15 this month and I have worked with organisations he is associated with since his diagnosis. With my business (11 years) my work has been with disable and special needs children centres. I have had many letters of thanks from Starlight, House with no steps and others..I even have a letter of praise from a former premier.

    Now I ask you to be 100% truthful of your position as you posted ANON unless your last name is VOTER. Sorry but I can smell agenda in the air.

  36. Murray, you may be the nicest chap in the world, with the best and brightest ideas for the seat of Mitchell. But I can’t possibly vote for you. I just can’t get past the fact that you represent Mr Palmer’s party.

    I don’t know Mr Palmer other than through the media, but the impression I have of him is that he is incredibly rich and his only agenda is to do whatever it takes to stay that way. Anything else that comes out of his mouth is just window dressing.

    In my view, that is not a good platform for a political party. Put simply, the thought of Mr Palmer having a bigger say in the running of this country than he already does (through his media appearances) makes me physically sick.

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