Melbourne Ports – Australia 2013

1. You Know Who to descend on this profile in 3…2…1……

   An ALP majority in the Caulfield area shows how strong Michael Danby’s personal vote is in this seat. Caulfield is affluent and Liberal voting, but has a high Jewish population that supports Danby’s strong stand on foreign policy.

   When Danby goes the Liberals will have a real shot at winning the seat. But not before.

2. MDM, do you think calling the election on most holy of days in the Jewish religion could impact here? I think it could, although I think Danby should get over the line given the margin held.

3. Caulfield is remarkable given Libs held state seat even in 2002 (though I heard Labor candidate was worried he might win at one stage!). Danby has argued to keep Caulfield in seat even although it places Labor at risk without him

4. DB, observant Jews are used to doing postal or early votes as our elections are always on Saturdays. Therefore this election isn’t any different for them.

5. If one looks at the last state election vote in the seats that are in Melbourne Ports and superimpose it over Melbourne Ports we see that Caulfield, Brighton, Prahran are all Liberal while Albert Park saw the ALP (Foley) with 30% of the primary vote and the Lopez (Lib) got 39%. Foley won on preferences but Melbourne Ports is winnable for the Liberals.

   The Greens candidate is Ann Birrell who has stood in local council and state elections but I hear that this is going to be her last campaign.

   I saw Kevin Ekendahl out last weekend in Middle Park (were I live) campaigning. Danby rarely campaigns and I hear from a local Green (not the candidate) that many of the ALP branches dislike Danby and that he does not attend if invited to speak to branch members. Danby abstained in the gay marriage debate and in mainly interested in pushing Israel forward.

   Prisoner X was once one of his constituents I understand.

6. A plus for Kevin Ekendahl is that Danby has been our MP for 15 years which is far to long for a permanent and ideal backbencher, well until recently. He is now Parliamentary Secretary for the Art. The other plus is that the Caulfield Jews will want an MHR who is in government and that will be the Liberals after 14 Sep 13.

   Danby’s line are recent arrivals to Australia as his parents were Prussians or Poles in WW2 while Ekendahl’s family has been in Australia for well over a century or two.

   Danby’s parents changed their name from Danziger (or something like it) to Danby. Danby did a few years in the Australian Army Reserve 30 years ago but a cynic would say that this was not for Australia but for Israel

7. No secret Danby not popular among active branch members the non-Caulfield areas are inner-city left territory. In 1998 he lost local members vote to Tim Pallas. When Johan Schaffer sought Monash LegCo preselection be distributed a letter from Danby supporting his opponent Dick Gross.

8. Geoff Robinson – where is Dick Gross now. In the last TWO Port Phillip Council elections GROSS, Dick (as he appeared on the ballot paper) lost in Junction Ward (St Kilda Junction/St Kilda Rd area) first to the John Middleton (Greens) and recently to Andrew Bond (Liberal). The funny think about it was that Middleton had more primary votes (29%) in 2012 but Bond won on preferences, including many from Gross voters.

9. According to the Fairfax “Weekly Review Bayside & Port Phillip” online (06 May 13) another candidate for Melbourne Ports is Steven Armstrong, Stable Population Party (SPP).

10. With 4 months to the election its interesting to see that Jewish MP’s are raising the stakes.

    Kooyong’s Josh Frydenberg (Lib) wants to promote General Sir John Monash (Prussian Jewish background) to Field Marshall despite him dying over 80 years ago. Unfortunate this great Australian WW1 Corps Commander did not command an Army let alone 3 Armies that a Field Marchall would normally command.

    Michael Danby is talking up the honorary citizenship of the brave Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallenberg who disappears in Hungary during WW2 after helping thousands of Jews escape the Nazis. Wallenberg has a decades old memorial to him outside the St Kilda Town Hall (in Melbourne Ports) and recently a Swedish church in Kew, Vic had a new memorial commissioned recently. This is all good stuff.

    However another Swedish WW2 diplomat we are unlikely to see get similar recognition from Jewish MP’s for similar brave work is Count Folke Bernadotte who had link to Australian POW’s in Germany. See Folke Bernadotte Wikipedia for his story. The reason he will not be mentioned in Kooyong or Melbourne Ports is that after WW2 he was sent to Palestine but was murdered by Stern Gang terrorist. One of his killers later became PM of Israel a few decades later.

11. The redistribution had proposed Caulfield be removed and placed in Higgins, being replaced by South Yarra and Prahran. This would actually have worked better logically, but Danby successfully argued against it, presumably because it would have deprived him of his Jewish base.

    The whole argument about Danby, Caulfield, and the Jewish vote turned a bit nasty in some quarters during the comments and public hearing process….

12. During the redistribution Danby argued that not altering the boundaries to much would actually disadvantage him and that the original proposal by the AEC would be better voter wise for him but as we see above the final redistribution with minor changes actually gave him a 0.3% advantage. Danby fibbing again and the silly AEC panel fell for it.

13. From my recollection, the ALP’s (including Mr Danby’s concerns) were that the draft boundaries would have made Melbourne Ports more vulnerable to a Greens victory as some of booths in Prahran and Windors (which would have been included) have Green votes in the 24% to 30% range. I believe the current boundaries are more favourable to the Liberals that what the AEC orginally proposed.

    The latest newspoll places Mr Danby in a vulnerable position if any of his key supporters defect. Personally I would watch how the Marriage equality debate plays out in this electorate, as the gay community appears to be the only other community in this electorate with the numbers to trigger a change.

14. Sandbelter – in 2013 this is more likely as in the state seats that cover Melbourne Ports all are Liberal (Brighton, Caulfield and Prahran) while in Albert Park the Labour MP only get 30% of the primary vote (he won on preferences though). Read my earlier comment about the Caulfield Jews wanting an MP who is in Government and that will be the Liberal candidate Kevin Ekendahl

15. Danby abstained in the gay marriage debate on Parliament recently despite there being a large gay population within his electorate. Another example of Danby fence sitting and not committing himself to anything except to an alien country Israel.

16. So we actually had the ALP MP arguing AGAINST boundaries that would have strengthened his (& his party’s) position? I guess thats the same as Shorten continuing to back Gillard, secure in the knowledge that when they lose, he’ll be the new LOTO.
    Self interest trumps party loyalty..

17. The erratic Michael Danby flipped his lid on 23 Jun 13 at the opening of a kindergarten (a German word) in St Kilda. Some children and toddlers came to the opening having been given a free balloon further down the street.

    The blue balloons has the word Ekendahl on them. After berating female kindergarten and council staff about the balloons being against the rules he stormed out with the adults and children looking confused and upset.

    This is not the first time Danby has behaved badly. Usually on election day his minders have to take him away soon after lunch time he is so stressed out he is an embarrassment. You see election day is the only day he does a full day’s work having to visit all those polling stations.

18. Gonna call BS on that one. Pretty much anything Mr Jackson says about Mr Danby can be considered as such.

19. PJ – I was at the kindergarten opening yesterday which was, at 60 years old, the first time I had ever been to a kindergarten. My mother raised we kids and I baby sat my sister child often at weekends in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s.

    I have seen his erratic behavior on election days too as I live in Melbourne Ports.

    I listened to Danby in Parliament this morning (24 Jun 13) on News Radio talking about a Parliamentary Committee trip to East Timor and Indonesia. He seemed confused as if he had not prepared his brief and stumbling report on the MP’s trip. Perhaps he was still regretting not having his red balloons for the kiddies. Danby has truly passed his use-by date.

    I could tell you about the fridge magnets he sent out with ANZAC Day on 24 Apr 13 or with the NSW school holidays marked instead of Victoria’s ones (different dated). Dumb & Dumber.

20. Have not heard Danby comment on the kiddy porn art at the Linden Galery in St Kilda either. Danby is a real fence sitter on most things.

    I had to ask the police to check it out and a week later they raided the Linden and confiscated the offending “art”. Charges are likely the police say. Danby is a new Parliamentary Secretary for the Arts although at the Kindergarten opening he said he was a Minister for the Arts.

    Dandy state clone in Albert Park District, Martin Foley MLA, has been busy supporting the Linden Gallery kiddy porn show but perhaps the fact that the Chairman of the Galleries board is Sue Foley may be influencing his decisions. Sue and Martin are close relatives I understand.

21. Danby backed Gillard in a TV interview before the leadership vote.

    He may be the shortest lived Parliamentary Secretary for the Arts in memory as Gillard appointed him to this role only recently

22. If i were Rudd my line up:

    PM- Rudd
    Treasurer- Bowen
    DPM, Minister for infrastructure, regional development- Albanese
    Finance- Wong
    Defence- Kelly/Fitzgibbon
    Education- Jacinta Collins/Crean
    Broadband- Lundy/Albanese/Marles
    Attorney General- Dreyfus
    Community service, indigenous affairs- Macklin
    Foreign Affair- Bob Carr
    Environment- Tony Burke
    Agriculture, Fisheries- Crean/Fitzgibbon
    Trade- Crean
    Industry and innovation- Kim Carr
    Climate Change- Lundy/Marles
    Health- Plibersek
    Tertiary Education- Parke
    Immigration- Lundy/O’Connor/Marles
    Mental Health and Aging- Butler
    Home Affairs and Justice- Clare
    Employment, Workplace Relations- Shorten
    Resources and Energy- Gray

    The outer ministry should much be the same but if Lundy and Kelly are promoted to cabinet, could see Husic take sports and multicutlural affairs and Parke pick up Defence Material (Crikey suggested that Parke would be in cabinet and I believe Rudd will want strenght in the Senate given that 2 cabinet Ministers who are in the senate have walked away and Lundy is a senior Labor figure and probably won’t have anyone to turn to in replacing Rudd, although unlikely to get immigration as she is from the left but has held alot of positions in software shadow portfolios)

    Parliamentary Secretaries should see Rudd backers such as Stephen Jones, Shayne Neumann, Ursula Stephens, Lin Thorp (former state minister), Gai Brodtmann, Laura Smyth and some gillard backer safe such as Kelvin Thomson, Matt Thislethwaite, Andrew Leigh (looking to the future he is very talented), Sid Sidebottom, Danby, Yvette D’Ath.

    Its not in Rudds interest to burn all Gillard supporters as he is safe from any emerging leader either too unstable (Shorten) or to early (Clare, by which time Rudd will have retired). He will need to look for strong communicators which is why Lundy maybe in cabinet. The only reason Parke is mentioned because she has been listed on crikey as a possible cabinet minister although i suspect she will be in the outer ministry with sharon bird either to be dropped or promoted to cabinet. Rudd will also be weary of making too many changes which is why he has requested a number of public Gillard supporters to stay on including Danby, although he is reflecting, this should see a mix of new blood as well as old which is a strong cabinet and probably what Rudd needs

23. Observer – Its only for a few months anyway and the Winter recess starts now as well. They will all be off on those fact finding parliamentary delegations overseas ( to nice places in Europes mostly buy never Mali or Gaza) even though many are not standing for another term.

    I note Ambassador to the Antarctic is not listed but its a toss up between Shorten and Danby.

24. its expected to be announced today and the SMH has just reported Jacinta Collins is tipped to replace Garrett like my earlier prediction. I hardly think any MP would be considering leaving when they have an election looming at any time. If they don’t win their seats, they won’t have any delegations to go to

25. The one leaving parliament (not just ALP) will still go on their junkets before the next election. They go north every Winter

26. I think you will find Adrian that all MPs excpet some senators will stay

27. No they wont. This will be their last free junket

28. No local government referendum now. Port Phillip Council (within Melbourne Ports) just wasted $40,000 on it. 6 of the 7 councillors voted for the referendum campaign funding. The only councillor who voted against it was Cr Andrew Bond (Lib). I wonder if the other 6 councillors will put their hand into their pocket to pay the ratepayers back for any money wasted to date. All I have seen so far is some full page newspaper advertisements a few weeks ago – now long forgotten.

29. Adrian – the referendum isn’t cancelled, it’s just not happening at the time of the current election – it will be postponed.

30. The Coalition is likely to win the election and they are a states rights party not a centralist party like the ALP. Therefore it will not happen. The last local government referendums were all lost too.

31. I reckon the outcome is about 50/50 as we go in to the campaign.

    On the parties – the evidence of the past twenty years is that there are no states rights parties any more. Technological and economic change plus their inherent pragmatism have driven both parties to accumulate more and more power at the centre.

32. Would you vote for someone legalising marijuana and who has a name spelt backwards of RATS ASS

33. I am looking forward to the Meet the Candidates Forum which is usually held in St Kilda Town Hall. Has anyone organised one for the lead up to this election?

    On the Unchain Inc website (a political group within Port Phillip) there are some answers to questions asked of some of the main candidates (Lib, Green, ALP so far) but half the questions asked were on state issues not federal issues.

34. ANON – would a candidate’s name spelled backwards really influence your vote?

35. The gay LIB candidate is apparently campaigning very well, including with his partner, in a seat with a high gay vote. However, he is not exactly being helped by his leader with today’s statement;
    on SSM, “radical change based on the fashion of the moment”.

36. I got a Michael Danby leaflet in the letter box on Monday and it was all about state issues not federal issues – oh dear !!!

37. Nine candidates standing in Melbourne Ports and ninty seven Senate candidates in Victoria.

38. Observer
    Posted June 27, 2013 at 10:53 PM

    Nah…..I’d give all the Ministries to Rudd.

    ….

    I still reckon Danby should be ok here.

39. Umm DB what have you been smoking. I gave a line up and listed rudd as pm only, no other ministry

40. Labor retain, probably suffering a below-average swing.

41. The powerful, mainly St Kilda based, residents group UnChain Inc which opposed the overdevelopment of the St Kilda Triangle site next to Luna Park a few years ago and which resulted in the removal of most of the Port Phillip Councillors, the resignation of the CEO and some senior managers moving on, says that they recommend that voters put the Greens 1st, Liberal 2nd and Labor 3rd in Melbourne Ports which really means a vote, after preferences, for the Liberal candidate

42. I’m going to go out on a limb and follow my gut feel here.

    Given Rudd has been in this seat three times now and the complete absense of Danby posters in Caulfield (something I’ve never seen before, Danby’s camplaigns are typically well oiled) and the reports in the press of two separate how two vote cards, I think Danby is in more trouble than what is generally appreciated.

    Too close to call, but wouldn’t be surprised anymore if the Libs pick this one up.

43. Sandbelter – you could be right. I have got leaflets in my letter box for only 3 candidate Ekendahl, Birrell and Danby. 2 leaflets from Birrell, 2 from Danby (but early in the campaign), and 5 leaflets from Ekendahl (all with differing new information and in different formats).

    One of Ekendahl’s leaflets was a 16 page summary of the Liberal “Our Plan” document waved around by Abbott and others at media interviews. I have not seen any Danby posters in the coastal part (where I live) of Melbourne Ports either.

    When I voted on 20 Aug 13 these 3 parties had helpers handing out HTV cards but an ALP women (who claimed to work for Dandy) was “offended” when I briefly pointed out to the Liberal helper some of Danbys cockups in the past.

    A calandar mailed out in 2006 with NSW not Vic school and public holidays marked. Vic school holidays are different dates and Labour Day was on a NSW date and Melbourne Cup was not show as a consequence. I still have that calendar.

44. When I was in the Liberals (1994-2003) I used to put up Liberal posters. I travelled 100’s kms one campaign around Melbourne Ports putting up and replacing stolen posters. I think times have changed and posters are mainly used now at polling places.

45. There’s only Liberal posters in Caulfield atm.

    One thing in the blogs in the Jewish press (re Danby) is there is a real zeitgiest for change. A couple of commentators have questioned the calibre of past Liberal candidates and expressed a preference for some of the more senior serving Glen Eira city councillors. Nevertheless, their public support for Ekendahl could be pivotal in the Glen Eira end of the electorate where the Libs gets 65% of the vote in a state election but only circa 50% at a federal election.

    But I stand by my call. Melbourne Ports is only winnable for the ALP on the back of Danby’s personal vote supported by a well oiled campaign. There is nothing well oiled about the campaign this time making the seat uncertain.

46. Sandbelter
    If Danby survives, & sadly he probably will. It is only due to the absolutely appalling job the AEC did with the fed re-distribution in 2010. Melbourne Ports is nearly 9% UNDER quota !!! (the most in VIC) . How did that happen ????.With another 10,000 odd voters from Goldstein, or Higgins surely that is a 2-3 % impact at least???. Probably it will be the margin he is left with.

47. Just got a leaflet in my letter box from the Animal Justice Party.

48. I though the original AEC redistribution was best and more compact instead of the ridiculous shape the electorate remained in after lobbying from Danby. I went to the AEC committee public consultation meeting and put in a submission but the weak committee cow-towed to Danby.

49. Melbourne Ports has strong growth now so IIRC they deliberately put the enrolment low to allow for future growth. Maybe that just hasn’t happened to the extent they thought?

    Other thing is Melbourne Ports would have a fairly large transient population, lots of students and renters, etc. This would keep the enrolment low even if the population was about average.

50. Just got a leaflet in my letterbox from the Palmer United Party.

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