Makin – Australia 2013

ALP 12.0%

Incumbent MP
Tony Zappia, since 2007.

Map of Makin's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Makin’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Northeastern suburbs of Adelaide. Makin covers most of Tea Tree Gully council area as well as parts of Salisbury council area east of Main North Road and a small part of Port Adelaide Enfield council area. Major suburbs include Para Hills, Walkley Heights, Modbury, Redwood Park, Tea Tree Gully, Golden Grove, Greenwith, Salisbury East and Salisbury Heights.

Redistribution
Makin expanded to cover an area to the west of the Main North Road previously part of Port Adelaide. The ALP’s margin was cut from 12.2% to 12%.

History
Makin was created at the 1984 election as part of the  expansion of the House of Representatives. It has begun to develop as a bellwether seat, having been won by the party of government at every election since its creation.

The seat was first won by ALP candidate Peter Duncan, a state MP who had served as a state minister from 1975 until the defeat of the Corcoran government in 1979. Duncan served as a federal minister from the 1987 election until the 1990 election, when he was demoted to a Parliamentary Secretary position which he held until the defeat of the Keating government in 1996.

Duncan lost Makin to Liberal candidate Trish Draper at the 1996 election. Draper held Makin for the entirety of the Howard government, although she never moved off the backbench. Her margin was cut to less than 1% at the 2004 election, and she retired before the 2007 election.

At the 2007 election the ALP’s Tony Zappia won Makin with a swing of over 8%. He gained an additional 4.5% swing in 2010.

Candidates

Assessment
Makin is now held by the Labor Party by a large margin, thanks to a cumulative swing of over 13% to Tony Zappia over two elections. That margin should be cut back substantially, but it’s unlikely to fall far enough to see Zappia lose.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Zappia ALP 43,114 50.58 -0.87
Liz Davies LIB 25,740 30.20 -8.07
Jasemin Rose GRN 8,604 10.09 +5.79
Mark Potter FF 5,089 5.97 +2.42
Michael Gameau LDP 1,081 1.27 +0.78
Anton Horvat ON 662 0.78 +0.20
Wayne Rich DEM 534 0.63 -0.74
Robert Stewart CLSK 409 0.48 +0.48

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tony Zappia ALP 53,014 62.20 +4.50
Liz Davies LIB 32,219 37.80 -4.50
Polling places in Makin at the 2010 federal election. North-East in blue, South-East in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Makin at the 2010 federal election. North-East in blue, South-East in green, West in orange. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. The majority of the seat’s population lies in the City of Tea Tree Gully, and these polling places have been split into North-East and South-East. Those in Port Adelaide Enfield and Salisbury council areas have been grouped together into West.

The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 57.9% in the north-east to 65.9% in the west.

The Greens vote varied from 9.2% in the north-east to 10.6% in the south-east.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 10.06 65.89 29,209 40.57
South-East 10.62 60.94 24,892 34.58
North-East 9.22 57.94 17,888 24.85
Other votes 10.94 60.49 16,808
Two-party-preferred votes in Makin at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Makin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Makin at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Makin at the 2010 federal election.

7 COMMENTS

  1. Ben – I think you’ve confused Playford – the amlgamation of Elizabeth and surrounding Munno Para, which is at the northern end of the seat – with Tea Tree Gully which is the bulk of the seat, based in the centre and south-eastern end.

    Zappia has done very well to move once fairly Liberal areas in the foothills – Tea Tree Gully proper, Banksia Park, Fairview Park – over to Labor. These areas had tended to be Liberal booths, even during the 80s. I suspect part of the story is social/economic change – fewer private sector managerial workers, as well as a turnover of what was a very strong level of support for the Liberals among older and socially conservative types. This area was something of a bible belt 20 years ago. The central to north-eastern quadrant is somewhat different – Greenwith and Golden Grove were planned developments of the late 80s and early 90s that absorbed “aspirational” voters from the northern plains of Adelaide; they are less Labour-inclined than the plains voters, but not by a great deal. That said, the booths in this area have had something of a tradition of high volatiliy – Florey, the state seat in the middle of Makin – has had double digit Liberal and Labour margins in the past 20 years, so it could still swing.

  5. The Palmer United Candidate for Makin is Andrew Graham. I was in Mayo but have been moved across as I have a history in Makin from 2007 (FFP). Thanks, Andrew Graham

  7. PJ
    Look it might well be total rubbish. However i did NOT make it up. Zappia has owned a small business,a gym i believe. So i can’t think he would have been impressed with this govt’s efforts in that area. If as is likely he gets re elected with a narrow margin, it would be a smart move to align himself with Nick Xenophon, who IS the most successful pollie in SA. Think about it

Comments are closed.