Macquarie – Australia 2013

1. It’s a sign of how poor the Liberal campaign was in NSW in 2010 that they barely fell over the line here.

   I’d expect an above-average swing to the Liberals here.

2. I wouldn’t be surprised if this seat falls to labor, the liberals won’t see this as a focus, putting more effort into gaining seats like barton and kingsford smith. This is one of the few liberal seats with a great quality ALP candidate. The Blue Mountains should hold for labor but the Hawkesbury will be key and whether labor runs a postal vote campaing/pre-poll campaign

3. Susan Templeman is a good candidate. If Labor is running to win majority Government – and a few more good polls will significantly change campaign direction for both sides – this is the kind of seat they’ll need to win. I don’t know much about Markus, but if she’s done a half-decent job she should get a sophomore surge in the mountains half of Macquaire, which will make this more difficult for Labor.

   Macquarie is probably the only target seat for NSW Labor. I still think they will try to consolodate Greenway/Robertson/Banks etc and hope for pick-ups in QLD and WA.

4. Observer
   Markus is a weak candidate. It is doubtful she will get a sophomore surge.
   Clearly you are not from NSW. Nothing will get the ALP past the stench of NSW Labor. They have no chance in this seat or any other lib seat.

5. winediamond
   I said nothing about Markus although I agree she is a weak candidate compared to Templeman. I am from NSW and clearly you are yet to learn from elections. The swing in the city is far bigger than in other areas. Maquarie won’t swing the same way greenway or banks might, at the last election Maquarie saw no swing like in Blaxland or Watson. To suggest this will be an easy retain for the libs is foolish, its in play. Rudd know is, he wouldn’t go there if he knew it couldn’t be won. I know this area winediamond and this generally bucks the trend and will do the same this election

6. I agree with Observer. Markus was elected in Greenway with a lot of help from the party machine, plus from the neighbouring Member for Mitchell Alan Cadman. Her Liberal predecessor in Macquarie Bartlett also benefitted from Cadman’s help. Cadman’s safe margin and good community links in Mitchell enabled him to use his actual campaign resources and finances to help Bartlett and Markus get into their respective seats.

   The time lapse since Cadman leaving and whether Hawke assists Markus could be rather decisive here.

7. Observer
   Templeman managed to hold the High water vote Bob Debus achieved in 2007, in 2010 in the mountains, with a lot of Green prefs. Whether this is due to her skill, or the impotence of Markus is debatable. The reverse(in a smaller order) happened in the Windsor end. This was before the savagery of the 2011 state election.
   Just as i doubt Markus will get or deserves a sophomore surge, it is almost beyond comprehension she could be as ineffectual as last election !!!
   I repeat my 2 assertions.

8. This is the thing about state elections especially in areas like this. By state results, the ALP will be smashed in Richmond and Page and Roberston. Areas like this tend to seperate their state and federal intentions. It can be useful but Templeman has a small business she understands what its like and most of the electorate is dependent on local factors like business and roads. This will be a winnable seat but I think the LIBs will be looking at the quality of candidates in all seats and Markus isn’t as talented as say Feenley in Kingsford Smith. Other seats will get priority over this at Lib office. She hasn’t been a local long, even though her leaflets say otherwise and the carbon tax is a big campaign platform for her which hasn’t been working now that people know the claims were lies

9. Observer
   Re Page, & Richmond. OPVs – expiration of green preferences. For pity’s sake compare like with like.

10. Winediamond maybe I should remind you the results

    Richmond take in Tweed (62.1 for Nats, 21.4 ALP), parts of Ballina (57 for Nats, 11.9 for ALP) and Lismore (61.2 for Nats, 13.2 for ALP)

    Page takes in parts of Ballina (57 for Nats, 11.9 for ALP), Clarence (56.7 for Nats, ALP for 28) and Lismore (61.2 for Nats, 13.2 for ALP)

    can’t really see how compulsory preferencing would have got labor over the line winediamond, can you?

11. Observer
    Like for like . 2007 state results NOT 2011 We will need to compare 2011 state with 2013 fed

12. the 2010 federal election and the 2011 state election weren’t too far from eachother and yet the state results in richmond and page were nothing like the federal reesults and its not like polling in NSW went really bad all of a sudden, they were always bad. Thats the risk u take wen u compare state and fed seats

13. Comparing state and Federal results not usually very helpful way to proceed. Peter Brent over at the Mumble blog goes on about why this is the case from time to time in an entertaining way

14. I’d assume such comparisons are even less helpful in NSW and Qld due to optional preference voting.

15. Ben. Can you explain to me why you included in your analysis a Hawkesbury, lower mountains and upper mountains area but grouped another category as “Other Votes”? where are these others from? Mid-mountains? I applaud your work but this just leaves the analysis a bit threadbare seeing as they constitute the 3rd highest group and we don’t know exactly where they are. They could be the difference.

16. Hi Justin,

    Those three geographical categories cover all of the electorate – there is no other geographic area not mentioned. You can see on the map next to the booth breakdown that these three categories cover the entire seat.

    The ‘other votes’ are those votes that can’t be pinpointed to a specific location: postal votes, prepoll votes, absentee votes and votes cast at Sydney Town Hall. Since these votes weren’t cast at regular polling places we have no idea where these voters live within Macquarie.

    Sorry this isn’t explained, but it’s standard for all my profiles.

17. Susan Templeman is a fantastic, hardworking candidate who hasn’t stopped campaigning. She was very unlucky last time – In 2010 the liberal vote didn’t actually increase at all – Labor lost the seat because its primary vote fell slightly, and people voted for Independents who preferenced the liberals. The Labor vote actually increased slightly in the Blue mountains but fell sharply in the Hawkesbury, which is what saved Markus.

    However this time the liberals have stuffed up with their Windsor bridge fiasco, which might bring that area back into play. Now that Rudd is back, this seat will be one to watch.

18. Markus has been very low profile MP in my opinion. I don’t know how well she works the community groups around the seat. Anyone have much knowledge of this?

19. i live in the Lower Blue Mountains. Markus wil turn up to any community events going, stay long ehough to get her photo taken for her website or the local paper, then leave. She invites children from the local christian school to her office to learn about politics but isn’t engaged with public education at all as far as I can tell (completely unlike fellow Liberal Stuart Ayres, whose State seat takes in part of Macquarie). She has put time into services for veterans and volunteer organisations, typically those servicing or with membership from the older demographic, and many of the concerns she does promote, like cctv cameras for the mid-mountains, seem to be the concerns of that group. At a personal level she’s probably a climate change denier and anti-same sex marriage, but she hides behind party policy on both those issues so it’s a bit hard to tell what she really thinks. Apart from that, getting her photo taken with Abbott, Bishop and Mirabella in front of “ditch the witch” signs, or having one of the lowest contribution rates in the Parliament I have nothing much to say about her. Oh yes – I hope Templeman trounces her when we do get to the polls.

20. A possible Labor gain.

21. The fact that Macquarie is in play says a lot about Markus. It should be fairly safe Liberal looking at the seat.

22. I agree morgieb, this seat should be much safer than it is for the Liberal Party. Louise Markus isn’t the strongest possible candidate. Susan Templeman is a very solid candidate and is Labor’s best realistic chance of gaining a seat in NSW. Expect to see many announcements from Rudd + his minister’s in Macquarie in the lead up to the election.

23. Am not at all sure where some of the commenters on this page are from but Markus has been a bit more effective at massaging locals in the Upper Mountains than these pundits would have you believe. Markus has shaken off what seemed to be an early shyness and turns up to a wide range of community events and while she is not loved she is accepted. I thought it was telling that at the recent Winter Magic (the Upper Mountains’ Big Day Out) she scored a stall in the middle of main street while the other political parties were shunted off to the deadzone up a side street. This is going to be a good contest, as Templeman is an excellent candidate, but even the best candidates need a positive swing behind them to take the day and that’s not going to come from NSW. The conservative forces in the Hawkesbury are strong and with them behind Markus I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals strengthen their hold on this seat. The asylum seeker issue and disappointment in Rudd’s climate change policies will ensure an even stronger primary vote for the Greens (and the candidate seems pretty good there too) and while you’d think that might go to Labor, I wouldn’t be taking that for granted. I think Markus will hold on, although she really doesn’t deserve to.

24. If today’s BML feels they have a better claim to the name due to living further up the hill, g*d bless ’em…

    Blue Mountains council has a Liberal Mayor presently, which may have had an effect on the positioning of stalls at Winter Magic. Markus never looks comfortable in public, and this no-show to a public forum of ideas is not unusual:
    http://www.rhsgnews.com.au/story/1668789/greens-promise-extra-2-billion-for-schools-plan/?cs=2132

    Yes, people who would prefer to see Templeman as the Federal representative shouldn’t count their chickensvotes before they are cast, and I agree that the Greens appear to have a strong candidate. It should be a very interesting contest.

25. Thanks Glenbrook Local. I have edited the other commenter’s user name to clarify the different commenters and will email that user to ask them to not do so again.

26. My sincere apologies – I really did not mean to do that. I think I must have been half asleep. Sorry Glenbrook Local.

27. No offence taken 🙂 There was a call for ‘local’ views, and I certainly scrambled for a minute or so to think of a (fairly obvious) name!

28. There seems to be a swing back to the Coalition here making it more likely a retain. A rather high primary vote to the Liberals here.

29. Quoting Lachlan ” In 2010 the liberal vote didn’t actually increase at all – Labor lost the seat because its primary vote fell slightly, and people voted for Independents who preferenced the liberals.”

    Based on last election there’s only 2197 votes difference 2PP! Start counting the factors that change people’s minds. The Windsor heritage bridge debacle may produce a slight improvement for Labor in that area, now that there has been a $500k pledge from Federal Labor for an independent study.

    The small party candidates will also be to watch – News at 11, or whenever the candidates are announced.

    I seem to remember a bit of a Labor kerfuffle with candidate selection in 2010 that may have led to some voters to change votes – wasn’t Templeman’s preselection rival the then BMC mayor, and there was a small flurry of accusations of dirty politics (of course)? Templeman has more than earned her place now….

30. I have voted Labor since 1984.
    For me Susan Templeman is not a credible Labor candidate.
    I will not be voting for Susan Templeman in 2013.

31. Macquarie is a strange seat in that it is essentially divided into three zones with different issues. The Liberals only won the seat because the Hawksbury was moved back into the electorate where Markus was the candidate in the 2007 election. In 2007 Macquarie covered the Lithgow and Bathurst region and was contested by the well known figure of Bob Debus.

32. If that’s true than blaxland local, then why did u vote for her last election? Or maybe you haven’t always voted ALP since 84

33. Also apparently the libs aren’t sure that the margin will save Markus which is why they have got Jackie Kelly to help in the campaign

34. Weird. Jackie Kelly doesn’t have any attachment to the Mountains/Hawkesbury, she’s a Penrith girl.

35. A personal friend of Markus’, allegedly. I’m not sure that’s wise strategy even if she’s short-handed in the office. People still remember what Kelly called “chaser-style pranks” from Lindsay in 2007, and antics like that aren’t likely to find favour.

36. Did Lindsey us to include badlands Glenbrook and that lower blue Mountains area?

37. I’m inclined to say that this seat could go either way.
    It depends on how popular Rudd is in the Blue Mountains and Hawkesbury regions, despite the apparent stench surrounding NSW Labor figures.

38. New poll showing a possible Labor gain, however, it doesn’t look good for them in many seats in western Sydney.

39. Queensland observer,

    Lindsay did include part of the Lower Mountains when it was created in 1984. All of the Blue Mountains council area was moved to Macquarie in the 2005-06 redistribution.

40. Like wat seats in WS and definition of not good

41. Two halves here conservative semi-rural Sydney fringe & green lefty Blue Mts, Markus not the best Lib to win votes on Mts (a Turnbullite would be useful here) but damage done in 2010.

42. Observer – what do you think?

43. I genuinely only see Lindsay, greenway close and possibly banks. Maybe 4 points behind

44. I haven’t seen nsw polling but if Kingsford Smith is in the equation as db mentioned in a different post then I guess Reid, parramatta can be added

45. KS is a very different seat to parramatta. Reid has more traditional labor voters but that could go, more likely to stay I think

46. I heard from a lib involved in the campaign that its not looking great and you’d rather be in the ALPs shoes here

47. Observer – I’d agree with that comment, however, I suspect a number of Sydney seats to go the other way (possibly 4).

48. Well wat seats because Lindsay is showing to be much closer (51/49)

49. says alot when Louise Markus is with Albanese and Templeman to turn on the NBN in the area

50. It is normal protocol to invite the sitting member to official functions in their electorate, because no matter how the Parliament divides up the elected member is that electorate’s representative. And Markus would have been mad to turn it down.

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