Longman – Australia 2013

1. Michael Caisley is Labor’s candidate. I think Wyatt Roy will easily win this seat, he’s worked very hard in his first term and always out in his electorate. I live in the seat next to his, and never see his Labor opponent.

2. Yet it doesn’t change that he’s a 22 year old without any life or workplace experience or an education that would assist him in the job.

   No doubt he has good advisors.

3. Roy will get back easily.

   Full credit to the young man to put his hat in the ring when no body thought the LNP had a chance of winning Longman.

4. Longman was a seat held by Labor by less than 2%, it was perhaps the most surprising ALP pick up in 2007. Most people, and certainly not nobody, expected the Libs to pick it up in 2010. Really, it was only their choice of candidate that kept the ALP in the race last time round (if memory serves, it was only a late-campaign gaffe by the incumbant Labor MP that changed the polls to Roy).

   Don’t get me wrong, I think Roy has done very well for himself and should be commended for putting his hat in the ring, as you say, but it doesn’t change that he doesn’t have the experience or know-how required for this level of public office.

5. I totally disagree with you PJ. I think Roy is a fantastic local member and the reason for that is that he has recognised that because of his lack of prior experience, he needs to be more receptive and listen more to the broader community.

   Don’t get me wrong, I think that talent is very rare and there are extremely few people who could be such a good member off so little experience, but Roy is one of them. I think that many of his constituents who had those doubts at the last election will be drawn by his performance in this term and we could easily see his margin jump to 10%+

6. If Roy can win, which I think he win, then he has done a tremendous job. Good on him for taking his chances and being elected at such a young age. He still has a lot to learn, but that is to be expected.

7. Re Macca-BNE He will get a sophomore jump in the vote – that is fairly uniform for a newly elected member – probably 1-2% plus whatever swing is on in Queensland. Individual candidates of major parties do not attract large personal votes.

8. I disagree Doug, I think that many good individual candidates can attract a reasonably large personal vote – it’s just that they have to work for it.

   If it weren’t for large personal votes, members who quit their parties to become independents would never get re-elected (Think Bob Katter, Rob Messenger, etc.)

   Don’t get me wrong, it’s rare that a personal vote is large enough to really make a large difference – the party is almost always the more dominant factor, but for some very good local members, it can save them in close elections when the swing is away from their party.

   I think that if you consider the typical member’s personal vote to be 1-2%, there’s no reason why a very good local member’s personal vote can’t be more like 5-8%.

9. Macca-BNE – such a personal vote may be achieved by a major party candidate in a Federal electorate but it is reasonably rare in city electorates. On these matters I defer to Peter Brent at Mumbles blog who has done a fair amount of work on the evidence on this issue.

   The smaller the electorate (state and territory) the more significant local factors can become.

10. Roy should win comfortably with the sophomore surge if the polls stay around where they are. Labor couldn’t win it with a sophomore surge in 2010 so they have little hope here.

11. Macca-BNE is right politicians can ttract a personal vote but thius very seldom occurs in Metropolitan seats such as Longman.

    Katter and Messenger represent rural seats with Provincial NEwspapers and Radio Stations. THis gives them a greeat advantage over MEtropolitan Politicians who compete for time on State TV and Radio.

    Wyatt Roy has worked hard as an MP but I doubt if the electorate know how hard he has worked. His predecessor Jon Sullivan and Sullivan’s predecssor Mal Brough also worked hard.

    I have heard no personal hostility about Roy in Longman. MIchael Caisley is certainly not working as hard as Roy did to get elected.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

12. I have a question … what has Roy acheived in his time as MP?
    By his own admission on the 9 news a few months ago when asked this same question by Andrew Lofthouse he said he saved a bus stop from being moved in Caboolture & he set up an app so constituents can contact him. I don’t know about you but that is a poor record for 3 years work!!
    Roy pulls in $220k pa + another $100+k pa in electoral allowances & he saves a bus stop & sets up an app … woohooo aren’t we lucky to have him NOT!!
    I & several people I know are involved in many community groups to which he has been invited to attend functions, events etc & he has not turned up to one .. nada .. zilch!! I hear he only turns up to things that have many LNP members or supporters & bugger the rest of ’em!
    This kid never finished his uni degree, he’s never had a real job (except now as an MP) & he wants another term … hmmm maybe this time he can save 2 bus stops hey!
    I would vote informal before I would ever give my vote to him & if the media wasn’t wrapped up in the “youngest MP” story & showed the real truth about him I’d say there would be a lot more constituents who wouldn’t vote for him either!
    GET RID OF THE KID!!!!!

13. I’d love to see Roy lose this seat. If Rudd can get back momentum and the polls are to be believed, you never know.

14. This is more of a Liberal seat than it’s margin indicates (swung 10% to Labor in 2007, just 3.7% to Libs in 2010). Roy only managed a below-average swing last time on the back of a gaffe by the Labor MP and the electorate’s response to Roy’s inexperience/lack of qualifications. Until the gaffe a few days before the election, polls had Labor holding Longman.

    I guess it depends if the electorate still feels that he’s lacking the experience to be their MP or if they’ve accepted it.

15. On state results though all three of the districts covering Caboolture (which IIRC is the main population centre of Longman) would have been held by Labor in recent years.

16. I think people forget Wyatt Roy has celebrate candidate status as well as incumbency. He is not just a local MP, he is our youngest ever and constantly getting mainstream media attention as a result.

    Incumbency plus the celebrity factor must be worth a couple of extra percentage points. I think labor will find this one tougher than Brisbane, Bonner or Forde.

17. ohh very few people have personal votes……I doubt 12 would in the Federal parliament

18. Surge for Rudd Labor in this electorate.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Longman show support for Labor tightens from $4.00 to $2.60 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.22 to $1.45. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor firming from $3.20 to $2.45 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.30 to $1.50.

19. Gap between the major parties continues to close in this seat.

    This evening, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor strengthening from $2.45 to $2.05 whilst support for the LNP drifting from $1.50 to $1.70.

20. TPB has done a brief seat profile, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/07/12/seat-of-the-week-longman/

    Very difficult to know how this will go now, Wyatt has many potential weak spots related to inexperience which could be exploited by the right candidate – imagine putting a good, local 40 yr businesswoman candidate against Wyatt! However, the ALP may have picked the wrong one here (union person) and Wyatt’s unique status and charisma may get him through?

    It will be an interesting one to watch….

21. Gap continues to close between the major parties in this seat according to Sports Bet.

    This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Longman show that support for Labor firms from $2.60 to $2.00 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.45 to $1.75.

22. Thanks Lurch. Wyatt is the favourite. Great news. C’mon Wyatt

23. There is a third candidate, Clem van der Weegen, from the Palmer United Party who is being featured in the local press. Stranger things have happened in this swinging seat.

24. Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $2.05 to $2.15 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.70 to $1.65.

25. Saw Roy and a lot young ones out doing roadsides today.

26. He’s gonna have to do alot more than that to win

27. Wyatt is the favorite here sophomore surge and also high profile. The fact he has a roadside crew, which I have only seen the LNP do in labor held seats before suggests he isn’t taking it for granted. Another good sign for him retaining.

28. If labor gains seats in QLD, this will be the first to fall. Not a great ALP candidate but people will look for any excuse not to vote LNP here because of his age. Sophmore surge doesn’t necesarily equate to holding seat

29. I’m going to suggest that the two of you perhaps need to pay attention to what each other is saying, here.

    Mr Roy isn’t taking his re-election for certain. Perhaps it’s not as simple as him making certain, but that the LNP recognises this as an at-risk seat, and is thus going to work hard to retain it. Sophomore Surge will help him, but the Qld Labor swing is going to work against him. Based on typical surge numbers and the Qld swing, I’d suggest that this seat is effectively on a knife edge. Notice that the betting odds place the seat rather close to parity, with LNP with a slight advantage – sounds about right.

    It means that he has a reasonable chance of keeping the seat, but it’s not a given. If the two of you can put aside your political preferences and look at it a little more dispassionately, you’ll be able to see it.

    Note that this will NOT be the “first to fall”, though. Both Brisbane and Forde have slimmer margins, with better chances of being taken by the ALP, and Fisher was Slipper’s seat, no incumbent and candidate-with-baggage Mal Brough as the LNP candidate. These, in my view, are more likely to fall than Longman.

30. Um Glen I never said longman is safe. Just observer keeps saying it will fall first. I disagree with that for the reasons I have already stated – sophomore bounce, roy’s high profile and work in the Electorate plus changing demographics. Brisbane, Flynn, forde, Herbert, Dawson, even Bonner are all before longman Imo. The rural seats because of Kap preferences, the urban ones I think have weaker incumbents.

31. Election is hotting up.

    LNP and ALP have each distributed a pamphlet to East Burpengary. These were both Nationally Produced Pamphlets with a few inches allocated to photo and name of candidate. ALP pamphlet used “Australian Labor” and Rudd was prominent. No reference whatsoever to ALP.

    Caboolture News 31 July 3013 announced that Family First Candidate is Will Smith. There is No sign yet of Corflutes or Vehicle signage for any candidate but I heard that local Shire Council were restricting this type of campaigning. It is amazing how councils that are supposedly made up of non Party Councillors and Mayors are so keen to limit the effectiveness of minor parties campaigning. IN doing so they effectively give assistance to the Major Parties who have the funds to pay others to print and distribute pamphlets run TV adds etc.

    Andrew Jackson

32. I’d say that “Australian Labor” is a pretty obvious reference to the ALP.

33. Today’s Australian article confirms my rationale that this won’t be among the first seats to fall. It lists Forde, Bonner and Brisbane. It says Longman is still polling well for the Opposition.

34. Support for Rudd Labor according to Centrebet.

    This morning, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor tightens from $2.15 to $2.05 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.65 to $1.70.

35. Further surge for Rudd Labor according to Sports Bet.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor firms from $2.00 to $1.85 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $1.75 to $1.85.

36. Good news for Rudd Labor according to Centrebet.

    This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor tightens from $2.05 to $1.95 whilst support for the LNP eases from $1.70 to $1.75.

37. I mentioned this in the forde thread. Labor also polled how Beattie would go in this seat and they put him in forde instead. That suggests Roy isn’t going that bad as, I mentioned previously. Clearly he has established his incumbency better then Van Manen

38. QO, they would put Beattie where they are performing worse that way they have a better chance to win the seat or else they would have put him in Rankin when Emerson retired

39. Momentum for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This evening, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor drifts from $1.85 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.85 to $1.30. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.95 to $2.90 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.75 to $1.35.

40. The telephone question was who would u vote for Wyatt Roy lnp or Peter Beattie longman. Same question for 5 or 6 seats where the LNP is ahead (Dickson, hinkler, forde, longman, bonner). They picked the seat where he made the biggest difference. Fact is without Beattie, longman is still an lnp hold.

41. QO – just a minor correction: without Beattie, Longman is an LNP hold at the moment. There’s still 4 weeks to go.

42. More momentum for the Coalition according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor drifts from $2.90 to $3.00 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.35 to $1.33.

43. Momentum continues for the Coalition according to the betting sites.

    This morning, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $3.20 to $3.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.30 to $1.28. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $2.90 to $3.20 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.35 to $1.30.

44. The Coalition will not lose Longman.

45. Throw can you possibly know

46. Db is correct about longman.

47. but what proof is there when we are weeks away from the election

48. Surge of support for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.

    Currently, Sports Bet odds in Longman shows support for Labor eases from $3.25 to $4.00 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $1.28 to $1.20.

49. Can you please update your website to include myself (Helen Fairweather) as the Greens candidate for Longman.

    kind regards

    Helen Fairweather

50. Coalition extends its lead according to Centrebet.

    Currently, Centrebet odds in Longman shows support for Labor drifts from $3.20 to $3.60 whilst support for the LNP firms from $1.30 to $1.25.

Comments are closed.