Lindsay – Australia 2013

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
David Bradbury, since 2007.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and has always been held by the party of government, making it one of the longest-standing bellwether seats.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010 despite a swing to the Liberal Party, with Lindsay being a focus of much of the national election campaign. Bradbury has served as Assistant Treasurer since February 2012.

Candidates

  • Jeffrey Wayne Lawson (One Nation)
  • David Lenton (Greens)
  • Mick Saunders (Australia First)
  • Andrew Wilcox (Palmer United Party)
  • David Bradbury (Labor)
  • Geoff Brown (Stable Population Party)
  • Fiona Scott (Liberal)
  • Andrew Green (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Lindsay is one of the most marginal seats in the country and will be a key battleground in the 2013 campaign. The seat is a totemic symbol for the Labor Party of their ability to win over the types of voters they need to win a federal election, so much so that the party has often lost perspective that Lindsay is just one seat.

Lindsay is part of a ring of Labor seats on the fringe of Sydney that will be under assault from the Liberal Party as they seek a majority.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 37,076 44.55 -6.24
Fiona Scott LIB 36,114 43.39 +4.71
Suzie Wright GRN 3,944 4.74 +1.28
Andrew Green CDP 2,502 3.01 -0.01
Geoff Brown IND 1,583 1.90 +1.90
John Phillips FF 1,032 1.24 +0.09
Mick Saunders AF 976 1.17 +1.17

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 42,546 51.12 -5.16
Fiona Scott LIB 40,681 48.88 +5.16

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Most booths lie along a narrow band between Emu Plains and St Marys. These booths have been grouped (from east to west) as St Marys, Cambridge Park, Penrith, South and Emu Plains. One booth at the southern end of the electorate has been included in South. Six booths in the north of the electorate have been grouped together.

The ALP won a majority in Penrith, Cambridge Park and St Marys, and the Liberal Party won in the south, north and Emu Plains.

Polling booths in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election. St Marys in blue, Cambridge Park in orange, Penrith in green, South in yellow, North in purple, Emu Plains in red.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Penrith 5.54 52.39 16,581 19.92
South 3.88 45.83 12,847 15.44
Cambridge Park 4.36 56.76 10,904 13.10
St Marys 4.18 59.71 10,443 12.55
North 3.85 45.30 10,109 12.15
Emu Plains 4.78 43.84 7,518 9.03
Other votes 5.85 51.74 14,825 17.81
Two-party-preferred votes in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election.

88 COMMENTS

  3. David Bradbury is a hard campaigner he will be out there with the all GUNS blazing.. dont be surprised if the Green vote may help him..

  4. A recent Union poll but Labor’s primary vote at 22%. I have seen combined polls with Greenway showing Labor’s primary approaching 30%, but I can’t see how Labor can hold this with Scott running. I expect at this point the Libs to win Lindsay on first preferences.

  6. Regarding leadership, I note a Reachtel poll in 11 western Sydney seats has Opposition Leader Abbott 51/48 ahead of Labor backbencher and former Prime Minister Rudd. That must be a huge concern for Labor because if Rudd cannot be preferred PM when not even elected over Abbott in western Sydney, what hope do Labor really have?

    I note Abbott was significantly ahead of current Prime Minister Gillard in this poll as preferred PM in the 11 western Sydney seats. Something like 64/32.

    Although one needs to be very careful in drawing conclusions between leadership support and party support, I note the reports that Jason Clare wants Rudd back, I am hearing are entirely true because he is really concerned for his seat of Blaxland – a seat the Liberal Party has not even come anywhere near close to ever winning. Nor should they.

  7. This is a “pincer”-style seat. There is a line that follows the Great Western Highway and the M4 that is solidly Labor and it comes from the east in. You can forget the rusted-on support for the ALP in the eastern-most side of this seat.

    The big swing will be around the centre of the seat.

  8. Internal poll from this weekend shows Libs 56% primary to Labor 26%. Abbott preferred PM to Gillard by 66% to 27%. Sample 300.

  9. Have the internal polls been consistently that far off the public ones? It sounds like a rogue poll, but maybe your polls are picking up something different.

  11. Polling completed on the weekend still shows that the Liberal Party would win this seat and Greenway if an election was held now.

  12. DB
    No surprises. Really the libs would hold these seats, & Banks, if they had not been so (organisationally ) hopeless at the last election.

  14. Pollster, just shy of an overall majority on primaries. Nonetheless, still a comfortable lead on two critical seats. Even allowing for a large potential MoE worst case, the Libs would still be ahead.

    I believe it would be very hard for Labor to win an election without getting at least one of these.

    Interestingly, on preferred PM, it was almost split evenly between Rudd and Abbott.

    Personally, I’d be surprised if the Libs don’t win Lindsay well and probably Greenway on a smaller swing than Lindsay. Banks, I’m not convinced on given the history (i.e. Libs have never won it, although the last boundary shift was more favourable for them), but on such a small margin, one would expect that to fall however, I preferred the last Liberal candidate.

  15. DB, thanks. Difficult to see Labor winning the election if they lose any seats in Western Sydney even if they hold all existing seats in Vic, SA, WA (which they will do well to do so). Coalition are probably five seats in front in NSW (NE, Lyne, Dobell, Greenway, Banks (or a surprise)) so even if they lose one or two in Qld they will win. Couple of seats likely to fall to Libs in Tas and NT (technicaly CLP). And the above is probably Labor’s best case.

  16. Pollster, I wouldn’t get too hung up on specific seats. The last 5 Federal elections have seen an average of 18 seats change hands and no-one would have predicted every seat. I wouldn’t be surprised if it were more this time with seats going both ways given the recent leadership change and the hung parliament.

    But generally yes, if Labor can’t win Lindsay, Greenway and Banks, then one would think they can’t win the election because these should be held by the Labor Party when they win elections.

    I actually think Labor will win a number of seats in QLD, perhaps as many as 8 (maybe I am being too bullish but I don’t discount the Rudd factor). They could win some in NSW too. But I expect a lot of seats to be lost in many of the other States. And there will be some surprises. I reckon the surprises will come in VIC and SA despite what the polls are currently saying.

  17. By the way, I’m not saying Labor will have a net seat gain in NSW. Just that seats will probably go both ways potentially.

  18. DB
    8 seats??. Really if there was that kind of volatility, then KAP should surely win 5 ??. It is a different country north of the Tweed, but this is too much.

  19. winediamond: There are a large number of QLD seats with small margins – eg. 9 LNP seats sitting under 5% – so the seats-for-swing curve there is pretty steep.

  20. Still predict a easy win for Liberal’s Fiona Scott here. The state results in Penrith, Mulgoa and Londonderry swung overwhelmingly to the Liberal candidates. This probably should have been a Liberal gain in 2010 but their campaign was run too late.

  21. I think Penrith has proven that it rarely follows state results. Whilst i do agree this should fall but I dont think it will be like the state results, could only be a 5-7% swing here

  22. The western Sydney seats (Lindsay, Macquarie & Parramatta) just seem too volatile at the moment to make any reasonable prediction especially with the current ‘tougher than your asylum seeker policy bidding war’ by both parties.

    It seems a little ill conceived to make bold predictions such as “a(n) easy win” until we see some more seat specific polling? In such seats much will depend on which party has the better campaign. Like 2007, it might depend on how many times Rudd visits?

    Added to that, don’t forget Direct Enrollment, DE. It has the potential to deliver the ALP a few seats in some of these close seats if extra unenrolled young voters are now on the rolls this election.

  23. I still believe Greenway and Lindsay are certain gains for the Liberal Party. I reckon Reid and Banks are Liberal favoured but too close to call. In Macquarie I would favour Labor slightly. I agree with Yappo that there is considerable volatility however.

  25. Karl Marx was right – its economics and perceptions of who can manage economic security that will make the difference. The asylum seeker stuff is largely froth and bubble.

  26. I noticed Bradbury losing his cool on DMG radio yesterday. It is getting a good airing in all major papers today in Sydney. It was not a good look given the arrogance and accusations, and confirms the pressure his is under to retain his seat. Polling suggests a Liberal gain.

    Not as bad as Diaz’ effort however.

  27. Can someone clarify something for me?

    In the mention of this radio screwup on pollbludger, it refers to Bradbury “ominously” asking the interviewer’s last name. What was Bradbury trying to do by asking the guy’s last name? Was there a certain last name he was fishing for, or something?

  28. Glen, quite simple. He wasn’t fishing. Having heard the interview, it was clearly Bradbury’s intention to intimidate the interviewer. It reflected badly on Bradbury and he admitted as much this morning. Some would argue it was worse than Diaz’ stuff up given the menacing undertone. I don’t quite see it that way.

    But it just clearly reflects what we pretty much know. Labor’s internal polling shows that they probably won’t win Lindsay. Mind you, they will do better than the low 30’s in 2PP they were polling back in June, but not by the 18% they need since that time.

    Fiona Scott is a great candidate and she should be able to get home in this one.

  30. Anyone who has listened to Fiona Scott would have trouble reconciling that she is a “great candidate” – your Liberal slip is showing DB. She clings to the pamphlet like it’s a shield of steel and parrots the “line”, but don’t expect anything that represents an objective answer.

    Bradbury is pretty horrible, but Scott is clueless. The people of Lindsay deserve better than what they’ve been served up for a long time.

  31. Hi Colours,

    Im sorry David Bradbury will lose the seat of Lindsay. Mr Bradbury was very pro Julia Gillard right up to the end and I feel this will not be forgotten by the electorate.

    It will be very interesting the margin in Lindsay, will it be wider that NSW State Swing or Australian Overall Swing.

    Colours I am Labor supporter and after the first 4 days I cant see a positive horizon for Labor in NSW.

  33. Grassy, it seems true that the sting has gone out of Rudd’s resurrection, but seriously if elected Fiona Scott will continue the Liberal tradition of truly unimpressive female parliamentarians. Sit her next to Jayme Diaz on the backbench so she doesn’t appear as bad.

  34. One of saddest things is that Julia Gillard was not a bad Prime Minister and the Government she led had some good achievements (and tried to fix a lot of Kruddys mistakes). Unfortunately undermining within her own party, hostile opposition, and woeful treatment by mainstream media these achievements will fly under the radar.

    ALP have installed Rudd to reduce the losses at this election. They don’t expect him to win, and probably would quake in their boots if he did get up. Bill Shorten has set himself as the next opposition leader. If Rudd does start to take the lead, watch for more “leaked” information from the ALP (Any more Krudd youtube rants?)

  35. I’m pretty confident of a Liberal win. I think the Bradbury meltdown against Glen Daniels, while not nearly as embarrasing as Diaz’s performance, will hit harder because of his very status. This continues Lindsay’s colourful history with candidates.

  36. Wow the Australian reports on internal polling at the start of the campaign, this seat was liberal 51/49 from liberal 65/35 under Gillard

  38. I suppose this seat is seen as the litmus test for Labor. They feel they need to win this seat to win the election. The Coalition do not see this as a critical seat for them. I suspect that is why the ALP are throwing everything into it and reporting any good news from the seat that is available for them.

    Bradbury’s dummy spit last week is a true reflection of where he stands in this seat. On the other side, Fiona Scott was interviewed on ABC by Michael Rowland this morning and appeared confident, comfortable and a winner.

  39. Its not incoceivable to see why Bradbury would be liked hes done a good job as mayor of penrith, hes been an outstanding local and has actually delivered alot for the area. I don’t know why your polling is different, maybe you aren’t matching up the area % of the electorate but it is possible for labors polling to be right and given that Bradbury won last time in the face of labor brand toxic in penrith, he must be popular, so i believe labor over liberal polling

  42. DB, how far is the Lonergan poll showing 60% on primaries to Scott out of kilter with what you are seeing? I emphasize that’s on primaries, not TPP. My gut says they didn’t even bother releasing a TPP because the poll was obviously so bad, but I don’t have the basis of comparison to support saying it actually is obvious.

  45. I don’t believe 60% primary vote, but it’s about as strong an indication as any that the seat’s gone.

  46. A large sample (says MOE of 3.7%) for a specific seat and the result is really astounding given other recent polls. I liked the fact that the pollster, Chris Lonergan, said “Given the size of the swing, we have triple-checked the data and we are very confident this poll is accurate.”

    It was an auto response poll so I guess it has a landline bias which would generally favour the LNP a little. Even so, if that is true, this still gives Bradbury who has acted most unvisionary, no chance.

  47. KB’s take;
    “A Lonergan robopoll for the Guardian with a massive sample size reckons Labor is utterly busted in the seat it is so historically obsessed with (60-40). Lonergan is a robo-pollster similar to ReachTEL or JWS. An interesting aspect of this poll is that Lonergan asked respondents how they had voted last election in an attempt to back-validate their sample as accurate. Poll Bludger notes that this doesn’t necessarily work as respondents will often over-report voting for the winner;’ on that basis it is possible (my extrapolation not PB’s) that the polled lead is exaggerated. Various reasons are given in the article for the possible bad result; one that is not flagged is Rudd’s extremely risky comments about Sydney in the leaders’ debate.”

  48. Yappo – I’d suggest so because internal polling is not at these levels. I agree with almost everything Bonham has to say.

  49. I believe JWS public polls have a bad reputation in some quarters, but it should be said their poll out today shows a Liberal primary of 57% and TPP of 61%, roughly in line with the Lonergan poll.

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