Lindsay – Australia 2013

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
David Bradbury, since 2007.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and has always been held by the party of government, making it one of the longest-standing bellwether seats.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010 despite a swing to the Liberal Party, with Lindsay being a focus of much of the national election campaign. Bradbury has served as Assistant Treasurer since February 2012.

Candidates

  • Jeffrey Wayne Lawson (One Nation)
  • David Lenton (Greens)
  • Mick Saunders (Australia First)
  • Andrew Wilcox (Palmer United Party)
  • David Bradbury (Labor)
  • Geoff Brown (Stable Population Party)
  • Fiona Scott (Liberal)
  • Andrew Green (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Lindsay is one of the most marginal seats in the country and will be a key battleground in the 2013 campaign. The seat is a totemic symbol for the Labor Party of their ability to win over the types of voters they need to win a federal election, so much so that the party has often lost perspective that Lindsay is just one seat.

Lindsay is part of a ring of Labor seats on the fringe of Sydney that will be under assault from the Liberal Party as they seek a majority.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 37,076 44.55 -6.24
Fiona Scott LIB 36,114 43.39 +4.71
Suzie Wright GRN 3,944 4.74 +1.28
Andrew Green CDP 2,502 3.01 -0.01
Geoff Brown IND 1,583 1.90 +1.90
John Phillips FF 1,032 1.24 +0.09
Mick Saunders AF 976 1.17 +1.17

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 42,546 51.12 -5.16
Fiona Scott LIB 40,681 48.88 +5.16

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Most booths lie along a narrow band between Emu Plains and St Marys. These booths have been grouped (from east to west) as St Marys, Cambridge Park, Penrith, South and Emu Plains. One booth at the southern end of the electorate has been included in South. Six booths in the north of the electorate have been grouped together.

The ALP won a majority in Penrith, Cambridge Park and St Marys, and the Liberal Party won in the south, north and Emu Plains.

Polling booths in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election. St Marys in blue, Cambridge Park in orange, Penrith in green, South in yellow, North in purple, Emu Plains in red.
Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Penrith 5.54 52.39 16,581 19.92
South 3.88 45.83 12,847 15.44
Cambridge Park 4.36 56.76 10,904 13.10
St Marys 4.18 59.71 10,443 12.55
North 3.85 45.30 10,109 12.15
Emu Plains 4.78 43.84 7,518 9.03
Other votes 5.85 51.74 14,825 17.81
Two-party-preferred votes in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election.

88 COMMENTS

  2. Galaxy doesn’t see what other polls do here with Abbotts visits here for a reason as the libs only lead 54/46

  3. Lindsay Galaxy 20/08/2013 Sample 575 ALP 2PP 46%

    I don’t think Labor can defend this given so many polls indicating a comfortable gain for the Liberals. Internal polling also showing a Liberal gain here. Doubt that we will see too much more from the leaders of each Party in this seat.

  4. That means that there was a 6% swing to labor since last week for those who believed those 60/40 polls last week

  9. It’s worth noting that this is the ultimate litmus test seat – since its creation at the 1984 election, the party winning this seat has gone on to win the election. Labor won it in 1984, lost it it 1996 (and lost office), and won it in 2007 (and won office).
    Goodnight, Bradbury.

  12. Whilst Rudd’s response to same sex marriage was lauded in Q&A last night, I suspect it won’t be in these types of marginals.

  13. I’m not convinced it would hurt. Are there any electorates where opposition to marriage equality is higher than support?

  14. I heard Scott on the ABC a few weeks back ducking and weaving every question, and clutching madly to the Liber Party’s leaflet – “We have a plan!” was her answer to everything (kinda Diaz-like), to which the ABC presenter said “Well really, it’s more of a pamphlet than a plan, isn’t it?”

    She’s just another example of the Liberal’s preselection process. No semblance of a clue needed.

  15. I disagree. I don’t believe Scott is a bad candidate at all. She probably won’t be a minister, however, she doesn’t have to be as long as she represents her constituents well.

    On balance, the ALP appoint many who have no business experience, no work experience outside of Government agencies, generally are union tied, and have some MPs who have large fraud and criminal accusations against them (you know who I mean).

    I know what I would prefer Colours. Scott would do fine as an MP in my view.

  17. *the statement being Scott’s words on 4 corners last night, not your preceding statement, though on that, one could just as easily point to the narrow pool from which Lib candidates come from (bankers and lawyers from exclusive private schools).

  18. No name calling please PJ.

    My point is that there are no Lib MPs in front of ICAC or being charged with misappropriation of union funds. And there are plenty of Liberal MPs who are small business owners such as the MP in Hughes and the candidates in Corangamite and Griffith. I could name many more.

  19. And there are plenty of Labor MPs with diverse backgrounds, from cops to UN workers to meatworkers and army officers.

    And in regard to Ms Scott, when MPs or candidates say something so ridiculous they deserve to be called out. What she said was stupid beyond belief and not befitting of a member of parliament – calling her a muppet given the circumstances was generous.

  20. Fiona Scott isn’t the weakest but she’s not the strongest, she doesn’t have the appeal to voters where she will get a big personal vote which is why she will be vulnerable in years to come if she wins. Love how DB shifts discussion to labor when it suits him and you’ve called me names before DB. Rudds stance probably won’t change much vote but the comments will more likely cause a ripple in other seats in the west

  21. 2007: senior figures in the Lindsay branch of the Liberal Party caught distributing fake pamphlets in Lindsay from a non-existent Islamic extremist organisation so that bigots would be turned off of the ALP.

    2010: The ALP brings in the “Lindsay Test” (pander to bigotry, never do anything actually descent because Lindsay voters would disapprove), Bradbury patrols for boats.

    2013: Liberal candidate blames congestion on refugees.

    What is up with this place?!?!? This is our bellwether?

  23. DB – the member for Hughes may be a small business owner (and I recall some disturbing media reports about his alleged activities in that arena) but that doesn’t ipso facto mean he’s particularly bright – I’ve seen him in action, and there’s not much going on there.

  24. Colours,

    As “Rudd for PM” has said its going to be a blood bath be it a “small business owner” who has got lucky or Mr Diaz who needs some much needed media training Liberal/Nats are going to take over some very good Labor candidates which hasnt been their fault entirely.

    Not looking forward to Saturday night.

    I was handing out how to vote ballots for Labor today at the pre-poll (my electorate is National) and I was there for 4 hours and handed out 30 in 2010 people were taking them willingly not this year.

    Not a GOOD sign what worries me is the Senate it could translate to losses within the Senate.

  27. Observer, pls give it a rest.

    You keep almost stalking DB looking for any petty excuse to bait him. Stick to what you are good at on this site pls, questioning the flood of everyone rushing to call a clean sweep of seats to the Coalition. Some of those critiques are worth reading.

    This sort of a post is not.

  29. Ouch, DB – you have wounded me so with your pithy and cutting barb. And you have the spelling right too – you must be in line for preselection next time.

  31. By comparison to some of the other mental giants your mob has put forward, he’s Einstein.

    So this is a “mine’s bigger than yours” argument now? And you have the hide to call someone else a dope?

    I remarked that you attributed intelligence to Craig Kelly because he’s a “small business owner” – the shallowest of arguments one could ever mount – and when I pointed out that he is spectacularly unimpressive you showed your manners.

    Well done – is your last name Ball by any chance?

  32. If we are talking about dopes, I heard of a certain Labor – now independent, that is still expecting to win his seat, even talk of offering to pay for drinks on his old union Visa Card.

    Tell Him he’s dreaming!

  34. Colours – I never indicated that I found Craig Kelly to be intelligent. I don’t know him personally to make a judgment. You indicate that you do. I was simply commenting on the greater diversity in the Liberal Party as compared to their opponents, which is factually true if you compare backgrounds and a similar exercise was conducted in The Australian Financial Review approximately 3 months ago, which confirmed my view above. You then attempted to demean Mr Kelly with your comment, to which I responded that you were a dope (and I probably shouldn’t have but your later contribution suggested I was probably on the money), to which you then suggested I may stand next time as a Liberal candidate (but I wouldn’t do that given family and income issues), and then I responded to the effect that I sought your view of Dr Glasson, to which you agreed he was better than others and then you accused me of comparing intellect of ALP v LNP candidates, which was clearly incorrect if you read my posts properly.

    That is what happened.

    I don’t think the overall talent pool of either party is greater than the other but I get the sense you do. I don’t think it is right to demean candidates unless there is clear evidence that they have done something stupid. For instance, I’d place the Member for Bass and the Liberal Candidate for Greenway in that category.

    Just because people have different political views doesn’t make them smarter or less smart. I don’t think you are stupid at all, but I thought that comment on the Member for Hughes was pretty ordinary and it could equally apply to many current MPs on both sides of the House I would have thought.

    Your original comment re: the Member for Hughes and your general views of Liberal Party candidates is what I objected to essentially. I’d suggest to you that the Liberal Party candidates are more diversified than Labor Party candidates, have wider business experience (which doesn’t make them smarter necessarily) and probably therefore have a wider working life experience rather than a highly unionised one, which is becoming less representative of our population. That is the point. That is the only point.

  35. No, DB – I don’t accept that you were attempting to defend a position of promoting what you perceive to be the relative quality overall of Liberal Party candidates. Your cheerleading throughout puts you squarely in the subjective conservative camp. I have criticised a number of breathtakingly inane LP candidates, and you immediately attack me ad hom – not exactly a balanced or particularly mature approach.

    But then again … your opinion is not one that I care a whit about.

    And, knock yourself out with your critique of the relative strengths of Liv v Labor, because I’m not a Labor supporter.

  36. ” I have criticised a number of breathtakingly inane LP candidates, and you immediately attack me ad hom”.

    Absolutely. I don’t attack any candidates in any party, except the Member for Bass twice and the Member for Dobell once. Hence, our values are glaringly different I would have thought. I’ll leave it there.

  37. Scott might be drawing a long bow with her linking of asylum seekers to traffic jams on the M4, which are really the result of governments’ refusal to invest in railway expansions that’d entice Sydney commuters to leave the car at home. But she’s home in this seat. Bradbury’s got too much going on out of his favour.

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