ALP 3.2%
Incumbent MP
Wayne Swan, since 1998. Previously 1993-1996.
Geography
Northern Brisbane. Lilley covers most of the northern corner of the City of Brisbane, including the suburbs of Chermside, Stafford, McDowall, Wavell Heights, Nudgee, Taigum, Deagon, Sandgate, Zilllmere and Nundah. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport, which substantially increases the land area covered by Lilley, without much of a resident population.
History
The seat of Lilley was first created at the 1913 election. The seat has a history of moving between Labor and conservative parties, although it has shifted gradually towards the ALP, only falling to the Liberals at their peak.
The seat was first won in 1913 by Liberal candidate Jacob Stumm. He retired at the 1917 election.
The seat was then won by Nationalist candidate George Mackay. Mackay held the seat for 17 years. After the new United Australia Party won the 1931 election, Mackay was elected Speaker, and served in that role until his retirement at the 1934 election.
Lilley was then won by the UAP’s Donald Charles Cameron, who had previously held Brisbane from 1919 until his defeat in 1931. He only held Lilley for one term before retiring.
In 1937, the UAP’s William Jolly was elected to Lilley. Jolly had been the first Lord Mayor of the Greater Brisbane City Council. Jolly held the seat for two terms, but lost the seat in 1943 to the ALP’s James Hadley.
Hadley was the first Labor member for Lilley, and held it until his defeat in 1949. The seat was then held by Liberal MP Bruce Wight.
Wight held the seat until 1961, when he was defeated by the ALP’s Donald James Cameron. He only held the seat for one term, losing to Kevin Cairns from the Liberal Party in 1963. Cairns served as a junior minister under William McMahon from 1971 to his defeat at the 1972 election, losing to the ALP’s Frank Doyle. Cairns won the seat back at the next election in 1974 and held it until his defeat in 1980.
The ALP’s Elaine Darling won Lilley in 1980. She managed to win re-election in 1983, 1984, 1987 and 1990, and was the first Labor MP to hold Lilley for more than two terms.
Darling retired in 1993, and was succeeded by Wayne Swan, the Secretary of the Queensland ALP. Swan lost the seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s Elizabeth Grace, but won it back in 1998. He joined the Opposition shadow ministry in 1998 and rose to the top of the party, becoming Treasurer after the election of the Rudd government in 2007.
In 2010, Wayne Swan became Deputy Prime Minister. At the 2010 election, Swan’s margin in Lilley was cut from 8% to 3.2%.
Candidates
- James Ryan (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Nick Forster (Greens)
- Benedict Figueroa (Palmer United Party)
- Rod McGarvie (Liberal National)
- Wayne Swan (Labor)
- Allan Vincent (Family First)
- Nick Contarino (Citizens Electoral Council)
Assessment
The seat of Lilley is very marginal, and will be a prize target for the Liberal National Party. Swan has held the seat for a long time and has a strong presence in the area. It won’t be easy for the LNP to gain the seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Rod McGarvie | LNP | 35,835 | 41.22 | +2.39 |
| Wayne Swan | ALP | 35,724 | 41.09 | -10.19 |
| Andrew Jeremijenko | GRN | 10,579 | 12.17 | +5.81 |
| Andrew Herschell | FF | 2,696 | 3.10 | +1.32 |
| Douglas Crowhurst | IND | 2,111 | 2.43 | +2.43 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Wayne Swan | ALP | 46,234 | 53.18 | -4.77 |
| Rod McGarvie | LNP | 40,711 | 46.82 | +4.77 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas: Central, East, North and South.
The ALP won majorities in three of those areas, varying from 52% in the centre to 59.7% in the north. The LNP won a slim 50.3% majority in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| South | 11.83 | 49.72 | 26,752 | 30.77 |
| Central | 11.02 | 52.06 | 17,908 | 20.60 |
| East | 12.98 | 57.36 | 13,475 | 15.50 |
| North | 15.28 | 59.73 | 9,403 | 10.81 |
| Other votes | 11.61 | 52.89 | 19,407 | 22.32 |
I am a long term Labor voter who works in the Lilley electorate. The polls are showing that there is an average 4 to 5 % swing to the Coalition in Queensland Seats since the 2010 election.
This will be a seat to watch on election night with the latest Sports Bet odds showing Labor drifting from $1.85 to $1.90 whilst the Coalition firming from $2.00 to $1.90. Although Wayne Swan is the incumbent member the political momentum in recent weeks suggests that he will struggle to retain his seat.
Swan should hold on.
If it comes down to it, Labor will sacrifice backbenchers in marginal seats to protect their senior ministers….
Its a long time to September. I feel that the Greens will help Mr Swan to the narrowist of margins in the seat of Lilley, but Mr Swan will have to make sure that he makes no political gaffe’s in the next 6 months.
If the current Prime Minister steps down and Mr Rudd is successful in his bid, this may save a few QLD seats like Lilley and Moreton in my opinion.
I think the Labor loss will be bigger than 1996. Labor is totally on the nose nationally. I work in a traditional Labor voting workplace and I know no one who will be voting for Labor and especially Gillard!.The attacks on Abbott have worn off and voters will give him the benefit of the doubt even with some distaste! Then there are those like myself from the ‘progressive’ left who will never, ever forgive Gillard for rubbing such close shoulders with the Australian Christian Lobby and will preference ‘kamikaze’ style to exact a big revenge on the appalling Labor Catholic right-wing who have destroyed a once socially progressive political party.
I agree. The Prime Minister is not popular in Queensland and I believe that Wayne Swan will have a better chance retaining his seat if Kevin Rudd is the leader. Latest Sports Bet odds in Lilley show Labor drifting from $1.90 to $2.05 and the Coalition firming from $1.90 to $1.70.
Oh well, I mentioned if Mr Rudd was reappointed then maybe Mr Swan may have a chance, but I think the “ship has sailed”.
I agree 1996 was bad for labor but now I think this maybe worse.
I agree. The Labor loss could be as bad as 1975 or 1977.
Latest Sports Bet odds in Lilley show that Labor has drifted from $2.05 to $2.30 and the Coaltion firming from $1.73 to $1.57
Yes I agree here there is a number of minor parties puting their hand up in that area and will all be preferencing against Wayne swan.
I have even seen a by-partisan T-shirt that is being printed stating ” I am here to see the Swan dive”
I doubt even if Kevin Rudd stood as leader would this save Wayne Swan. Most remember him jumping ship into the Gillard team after being the treasurer for Kevin in his short term as Prime Minister.
Wayne SWan is near invisible in the electorate. He always has been.
IT is interesting to note his personal website shows nvery little evidence of local activity and absoilutely no evidence of future local activity.
HIs PRess REleases are amainly re-hashed national press releases which show up his lack of interest in Lilley itself. THIs contrasts substantially with the websites of Yvette Dath (ALP- PEtrie) and Wyatt Roy (LNP – Longman) and Peter DUtton (LNP DIckson)
I am not sure if teh electorate will tolerate no local representation in return for pride in having their local membera s TReasurer.
Andrew Jackson
apjackson@hotkey.net.au
Internal polling show that the swing against Swan is greater than in the rest of QLD because of his vitriol against Rudd. He can retain it, but I would have the ALP as a bigger chance in other QLD seats than this. I’d pencil in as a Lib gain atm, but there is a long time to go here.
I agree DB. Private polling, published opinion polls, the unpopularity of the Labor brand and the Prime Minister suggest this is a likely gain for the Coalition. According to Sports Bet, Labor has drifted from $2.30 to $2.35 and the Coalition firming from $1.57 to $1.50.
More bad news for Wayne Swan.
The momentum continues for the Coalition in Lilley with the latest Sports Bet odds showing that the LNP has firmed from $1.50 to $1.40 whilst Labor remains steady at $2.35.
Continuation of bad news for Wayne Swan.
The momentum continue for the Coalition with the latest Centre Bet odds in Lilley show the Coalition has firmed from $1.80 to $1.70 whilst Labor has drifted from $1.94 to $2.05.
Lurch – isn’t that actually a swing back to Swan since 10/5? The odds mean absolutely nothing.
DB
Different polling company Lurch is talking about isn’t it?
Slight improvement for Wayne Swan.
Sports Bet odds this afternoon in Lilley show that the LNP has eased from $1.40 to $1.45 whilst Labor remains stationary at $2.35.
News gets worse for Wayne Swan.
Centrebet odds this afternoon in this electorate show that the LNP has firmed from $1.70 to $1.60 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.05 to $2.20.
my humble apologies Lurch. Different companies. I hadn’t picked that up.
By the way, the Liberal internal polling here is that Wayne is on course to lose.
I agree DB. Centrebet and Sports Bet confirms the internal polling with more bad news for Wayne Swan.
This afternoon Centrebet odds in Lilley show that LNP has firmed from $1.60 to $1.45 whilst Labor has drifted from $2.20 to $2.60. Sports Bet odds in this electorate show that LNP has consolidated from $1.45 to $1.33 whilst Labor has eased from $2.35 to $3.00.
Hi Lurch
Let”s hope Swan gets the clacker on election night, so people like you can experience a coalition government!
Take care,
Me
The Reachpoll suggesting Swan to retain was really strange considering it marked Rankin as a loss.
Slight improvement for Wayne Swan but LNP is still the warm favourite.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Lilley show that the LNP has eased from $1.45 to $1.55 whilst Labor has firmed from $2.60 to $2.30. Undoubtedly these results refect the release of the Reachtel poll in Lilley.
I still agree with DB that Labor is on course to lose this seat to the LNP.
I for one am not the least interested in what the Betting Odds are on Swan holding Lilley. Betting odds reflect dollars gambled not a likely result. Tally room plays a valuable role in examining the “local” factors and is used by all parties. Offering Betting Odds on this site is just as disruptive to logic as is the appearance of Waterhouse on Football Screens.
What would be useful is information about the local candidates.
Tony Zegenhagen (1 April) said a number of minor parties are “putting up their hands” but there is virtually no evidence of this on Tally Room and no evidence of this (apart from Palmer’s attempt to get the LNP endorsement) in the seat. IN fact There is virtually no activity by candidates in North Brisbane seats. September may only be 97/98 Days away but so are the candidates. I could be nasty and say away with the swan like birds but the key point is they are not visible.
I recall Swan himself handing out flyers at North Boondall Station at 7 in the morning prior to 2004 or 2007 Election but he is invisible this time.
The lnp candidates in lilley and petrie have been doing plenty roadsides
Andrew Jackson
If you don’t care about the betting odds, ignore them. As for Lurch’s providing them being “disruptive to logic”, that sounds meaningless—especially because the people commenting here are presenting their own views (sometimes based on nothing approaching logic) rather than one continuous logical argument.
As for candidates, Tally Room, as Ben has said, does not slavishly follow local reporting to discover candidates. As such, it is unwise to look at whether candidates are mentioned here as evidence of whether they are visible in their respective electorates.
The recent Reachtel poll is significantly different to what I understand the internal polling of both parties are currently showing. I still believe the Liberals should be the favourites to win this seat subject to strong preference flows from PUP (and lesser extent KAP), which I think could poll reasonably well here. I anticipate the Liberal Party would get a primary vote of around 45% at the moment. There will most likely be a strong ‘other’ vote in this seat, but it should flow to the minor right parties as opposed to the last election.
A short note to thank RichR and other people welcoming my comments on betting odds for each of the key Queensland Labor seats to be watched on election night.
Andrew Jackson, I only put the betting odds for these seats on a regular basis so to give people an idea of the support for each of the major political parties. In the absence of regular internal and published opinion polls in seats such as Lilley I feel that betting odds provide a another useful indicator into the support for these political parties.
Does Rudd’s leadership now tip Lilley back in Swan’s favour?
Yeah, the frog will win now. Rudd would hope he lost. Rudd might even hand out ‘how to vote’ Liberal in Lilley on election day to help get rid of him.
This seat will be one of the great ironies of the election. Swan should win with Rudd back, yet he probably would’ve lost with Gillard. This is despite his strong support of Gillard and apparent detesting of Rudd.
Surge in support for Rudd Labor with Wayne Swan favoured to retain this seat.
According to the latest Sports Bet odds in Lilley, support for Labor strengthed from $3.00 to $1.55 whilst support for the LNP diminished from $1.33 to $2.40.
Support for Rudd Labor is also confirmed in the latest Centrebet odds.
This morning Centrebet odds in Lilley show that support for Labor has firmed from $2.30 to $1.32 whilst support for the LNP has eased from $1.55 to $2.85.
Oh the irony of K Rudd saving Swan’s job.
Further support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.
This afternoon Sports Bet odds in Lilley show that support for Labor tightens from $1.55 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.40 to $2.75.
All over for the LNP in Lilley?
QO – I couldn’t see the Libs winning this with Rudd as PM.
More support for Rudd Labor in this electorate.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley show that support for Labor strengthens from $1.40 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP drifts from $2.75 to $3.50. This momentum is also reflected in the latest Centrebet odds in this seat with support for Labor firming from $1.35 to $1.28 whilst support for the LNP easing from $2.90 to $3.30.
Further support for Rudd Labor in this seat.
This evening, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor tightening from $1.28 to $1.22 whilst support for the LNP easing from $3.30 to $3.80.
Continued support for Rudd Labor in this seat.
This afternoon, Sports Bet odds in Lilley show that support for Labor firms from $1.25 to $1.20 whilst support for the LNP dwindles from $3.50 to $4.00.
Support for the Coalition according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows that support for Labor drifts from $1.22 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP firms from $3.80 to $3.60.
I am the candidate for Katter’s Australian Party for the electorate of Lilley
VOTE 1 CAAAAAAPER “you bewdy”
Good news for Rudd Labor according to Centrebet.
This afternoon, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor firms from $1.25 to $1.15 whilst support for the LNP eases from $3.60 to $4.80.
Encouragement for the Coalition according to the betting sites.
This evening, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.20 to $1.25 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $4.00 to $3.50. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor eases from $1.15 to $1.22 whilst support for the LNP firms from $4.80 to $3.80.
Continuation of good news for the Coalition according to Sports Bet.
Currently, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.25 to $1.33 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.50 to $3.00.
Another setback for Labor according to the betting sites.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.33 to $1.40 whilst support for the LNP firms from $3.00 to $2.75. Currently, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor drifts from $1.22 to $1.35 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $3.80 to $2.90.
DB, have you seen any recent polling in Lilley to suggest that this seat is too close to call?
It’s possible some punters just see it as a good value bet, rather than it being poll-driven. I’d be interested to hear insider knowledge on it though.
Lurch – Lilley is not being polled as far as I am aware in this campaign. It’s not in the marginals the Coalition could hope to pick up. Labor are probably polling and I hear they are campaigning heavily in QLD in the seats they hold which suggests they don’t have much confidence in picking up many.
If something pops up obviously I’ll come back to you.
Another blow to Labor according to Centrebet.
Currently, Centrebet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor eases from $1.35 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP firms from $2.90 to $2.15.
Mixed news for Labor according to the betting sites.
This morning, Sports Bet odds in Lilley shows support for Labor drifts from $1.35 to $1.60 whilst support for the LNP tightens from $2.85 to $2.10. However, Centrebet odds in this electorate shows support for Labor firms $1.65 to $1.45 whilst support for the LNP eases from $2.15 to $2.50.