ALP 5.2%
Incumbent MP
Peter Garrett, since 2004.
Geography
South-eastern Sydney. Kingsford Smith covers southern parts of the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, including all of Botany Council and most of Randwick Council. Kingsford Smith includes the suburbs of Coogee, Randwick, Maroubra, Mascot, Malabar and Kensington.
History
Kingsford Smith was first created for the 1949 election after the House of Representatives was expanded. The seat has always been held by the ALP, originally being a marginal seat in its early years before gradually becoming safer, and it has been solidly safe since at least the 1960s.
Gordon Anderson (ALP) won the seat in 1949 with a bare 50.9% margin over the Liberal Party, and only won a 50.5% margin upon reelection in 1951. Anderson won with 54.2% in 1954, before retiring in 1955.
The seat was won in 1955 by Daniel Curtin (ALP), who had previously held the seat of Watson since 1949. Curtin won in 1955 with 55% of the vote, and the seat’s has only dipped below 5% once since 1955, in the 1966 landslide.
Curtin held the seat until 1969, and in that time solidified the ALP’s hold on the seat, but was almost defeated at his last election in 1966.
Curtin retired in 1969 and was succeeded by the state member for Randwick, Lionel Bowen, who won the seat with a margin over 10% for the first time. Bowen was a minister in the Whitlam government and became a senior member of the ALP in opposition in the late 1970s.
Bowen served as Deputy Prime Minister for the first three terms of the Hawke government, from 1983 until his retirement at the 1990 election.
He was succeeded in 1990 by Laurie Brereton. Brereton had briefly succeeded Bowen as member for Randwick from 1970 until the seat was abolished in 1971, when he moved to the seat of Heffron. Brereton served as a minister in the Wran and Unsworth governments before switching to the federal arena in 1990, after the Liberals won a landslide victory in New South Wales.
Brereton served as a federal minister in the final term of the Keating government and served as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1996 until 2001, when he moved to the backbench.
In 2004 Brereton retired and was succeeded by Peter Garrett, former lead singer of Midnight Oil and President of the Australian Conservation Foundation. Garrett had also previously run for the Nuclear Disarmament Party in the Senate at the 1984 election, losing due to the Labor and Liberal parties preferencing each other over the NDP.
Garrett joined the ALP frontbench upon the election of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader in late 2006. Garrett served as Environment Minister in the first term of the Labor government, and as Minister for School Education since the 2010 election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Peter Garrett is not running for re-election.
- Jacquie Shiha (Christian Democratic Party)
- Danielle Somerfield (Rise Up Australia)
- Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor)
- Michael Feneley (Liberal)
- Geordie Lucas (Future Party)
- James Macdonald (Greens)
Assessment
Kingsford Smith is held by Peter Garrett by a vulnerable 5.2%, and could be in danger in 2013. However the eastern suburbs of Sydney are not known for large swings, and this seat could remain in Labor hands while seats with larger margins fall.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Garrett | ALP | 35,957 | 43.83 | -8.93 |
| Michael Feneley | LIB | 33,836 | 41.25 | +7.31 |
| Lindsay Shurey | GRN | 9,885 | 12.05 | +1.63 |
| Josh Carmont | DEM | 1,047 | 1.28 | +1.28 |
| John Cunningham | ON | 728 | 0.89 | +0.89 |
| Zac Hambides | SEP | 576 | 0.70 | -0.56 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Garrett | ALP | 45,249 | 55.16 | -8.10 |
| Michael Feneley | LIB | 36,780 | 44.84 | +8.10 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Botany Bay have been grouped together. Booths in the City of Randwick have been split between Coogee in the north and Maroubra in the south.
The ALP’s margin varied from 60.2% in Botany to 53.7% in Maroubra. The Greens vote varied from 15.4% in Coogee to 8.8% in Botany.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Coogee | 15.46 | 54.61 | 25,146 | 30.66 |
| Maroubra | 9.80 | 53.70 | 22,385 | 27.29 |
| Botany | 8.82 | 60.18 | 14,313 | 17.45 |
| Other votes | 12.58 | 53.92 | 20,185 | 24.61 |
Lachlan, I think you are giving far too much credit to the importance of a selected candidate that most apathetic voters (i.e. 90% of the population) would never have heard of (even if they are on Council). Labor, all other things being equal, should have a swing of around 3% against them relatively due to the loss of the incumbent who was also a Senior Government Minister. This doesn’t mean Labor will lose the seat. But, theoretically, it should perform worse than other seats comparitively in the same general area given the incumbency factor. That’s why I reckon the Coalition may end up picking it up as a surprise. They probably couldn’t have with Garrett as the candidate seeking re-election.
This seat would never be the ‘new Wentworth’, however, it could be won from Labor given the MP who was a Senior Minister is now retiring and the new candidate won’t have too much time to campaign effectively.
Lachlan, that Tony Bowen, is he the brother of Chris Bowen?
Unrelated. Son of Lionel, long time Randwick councillor and current mayor.
Oh, my mistake. For some reason I thought Chris was Lionel’s son. Nevermind.
DB – Before Gillard was removed, I would have said this seat will have a much smaller swing than the rest of Sydney. Now it’s probably the opposite, because we lost the incumbent member but our overall vote has improved due to Rudd coming back.
On balance I think the situation is roughly even to where it was pre-challenge. Once the ALP candidate gets picked will be a better time to judge it, although leaked polling today had the ALP ahead 54-46 without a candidate. very up in the air.
If money alone wins elections though, Feneley will go close. I saw a guy with a Feneley spare wheel cover on the back of their land rover yesterday. Boy, won’t it be embarrassing if they spent money on that stuff and lost. Only in the eastern suburbs!
How snobby can you get to come out with a comment like this
“Boy, won’t it be embarrassing if they spent money on that stuff and lost. Only in the eastern suburbs!”
I have news for you. We have businesses in the West Suburbs where people have more expensive cars than in the east and spend a great deal more money.
Thanks Shirl. Great comment. Just love your how your insights cut through all the spin. Please keep those anecdotes coming.
Senator Matt Thistlethwaite has been preselected as the Labor candidate for Kingsford-Smith.
Thistlethwaite was forced out, I hear on the grapevine, because Sam Dastayri wanted his Senate seat
Thislethwaite has wanted to move to the lower house for a while, he’s the best local for the job
@Observer
That’s what I was told by someone who knows him and is politically involved in the East Suburbs and Nationally
Updated candidate listing.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/benn/
Angus, is there a reason you posted the Bennelong analysis page here? Did you mean to link to the Kingsford Smith one, which has only the ones already listed on this page plus Matt Thistlethwaite, which was already posted in the comments a few days ago?
I think the Liberal Party can certainly pick Kingsford Smith up this time. Not only is the personal vote of Peter Garrett gone (possibly 2-3%), but Dr Michael Feneley has been campaigning full time for over a year now and Labor’s candidate hasn’t had the time to build a similar profile. Whilst I’d guess Senator Thistlethwaite may be familiar with the community, I think the loss of Garrett’s personal vote and swing against Labor state-wide will be enough for Labor to lose this one. Will certainly be one to watch.
I think you will find that Garrett’s personal vote was relatively low and suffered a huge swing. Thislethwaite has been very active in the area since he became senator and has been active in the community before politics having lived in his electorate his whole life. There may be a swing against the ALP but should be small 0-2%
Strong polling results for the Coalition in this seat make this a genuine contest. Sydney does not look to be a friend to Labor at the moment. Thistlethweight seen to be a faceless man of the ALP right by constituents. Feeney comes across as reasonably well known and well respected.
Yeah, I’m not surprised that it’s close, Mr. Thistlewaite was also out busy doorknocking my street on Saturday.
Also he’s not nearly as well known as what Mr. Garrett and Mr. Brereton were around here when they first ran for the seat,
Maybe this is a seat Bob Carr should of been parachuted into at this election since his state seat of Maroubra encompasses the federal electorate. I think would of been a better parachute than that of Beattie into Forde due to him having been (or still is) a local boy.
DB I highly doubt your polling has people thinking he’s a faceless man. I don’t think people in any electorate really give a crap about internal labor politics or could even name the person who is currently general secretary
Observer
Bowen would have been a much better choice perhaps. Thistlethweight has 2 big problems (that iv’e observed watching him on Sky)
1/ if he has had an original thought , or position (on an issue), he has never shared it!!!.
He just drones on reciting party dogma. boring.
2/ He is part of the system, the NSW labor party system. So of course he doesn’t think there is a problem, let alone an endemic one.
What you or i think isn’t the point. The voters gave NSW labor a flogging in 2011,& they arn’t done yet, as Matt , (quite a few others) may/ will experience up close , & personal.
As reconfirmed in my post of 11 August, Reachtel have polled this seat which shows the Libs ahead of Labor by 52/48. I really believe this could be a shock on election night and I wouldn’t put this in anyones basket at the moment, but all polling I’ve seen recently tends to confirm Reachtel’s findings.
Can’t see how the Libs can possibly win this…covers the state seats of Maroubra and Heffron. They were miles off winning these (combined) at the state election in 2011 and surely they won’t do better now?
K-S covers only a fairly small part of Heffron, most of Heffron is in the federal seat of Sydney isn’t it?
K-S mostly covers Maroubra (Labor held narrowly in 2011) and Coogee (big Liberal win in 2011). Demographic trends are probably helping the Liberals in this area too.
Yeah fair cop MDMC. Looking at the boundaries more closely, I see it covers the bulk of Heffron geographically, but most of the Heffron population is probably in the Redfern / Waterloo end which is outside K-S. Even so, transposing the boundaries wouldn’t give a margin of much more than 1-2% to the Libs based on the state result, especially if you allow that the Coogee result was inflated because of the high green vote, exhausting due to OPV.
Federal Labor has underperformed in KS, or, equally, two popular local members in Kristina Keneaslly and Michael Daley helped Labor overperform (comparitively) in the state election.
DB there is no way on God’s green earth that the Liberals are going to take this seat.
As I noted in my comments on Brisbane, Reachtel poll results are all about asking older Australians with landlines who they will vote for (excluding the younger mobile only population). This effect is even more pronounced in seats with very tech savvy populations (hmmmmm like KS?). So in KS I reckon at least 30% and perhaps even more of the voters are excluded from Reachtel. These voters outside the scope of landline polling are overwhelmingly under 35 and therefore predominantly ALP/Green voters.
Betting odds still show ALP as favourites but I plumped down at $1.60 today because I think that is an outstanding price – probably inflated this week due to landline only polling results.
I think the recent polling of all the marginal Sydney seats had around a 5% overstatement in the Libs favour. That still bodes well for the Libs in Lindsay and Bennelong, but I think Labor are still frontrunners in Kingsford-Smith and MacMahon.
Feneley still has volunteers and signs everywhere, so the libs obviously think they can snatch it in a tight race. Obviously the lack of incumbency is playing into the race here, especially in the north of the seat where the Labor candidate is less known.
I just come back to the fundamental point though – it usually leans Labor, and for the liberals to win here they’d have to overperform their combined result in Heffron, Coogee and Maroubra at the 2011 state election. Not impossible, but hard. That’s why Labor would still be the slight favourite.
MCBAL – yet if you look at Glen’s commentary on the “Day 8: latest candidates” page, he makes the argument that the Robopolls actually were more favourable to the ALP in the last federal election. So that somewhat refutes your claim.
But, even more considered that that, in any case, the polls are weighted in the seats in terms of age demographics which refutes your claim here as well. Unless people are lying, in which case, that could equally apply to ALP and Liberal supporters, couldn’t it?
Internal polling tends to support the Coalition are in with a very strong chance in this seat.
Watch this space I say. Watch this space……
I’m not just plucking my disdain for landline-only polls out of thin air:
http://www.srcentre.com.au/docs/publications/dual_frame-survey_acspri-conference-paper_finalv2.pdf?sfvrsn=0
The trend of landline free households has only accelerated since 2010 when the above paper was written. If there are attempts to weight for age groups and demographics in landline polls, those weightings are obviously fallible if there is no weighting for mobile only households. I think the difference between the national polling and the weekly marginals only emphasises this point.
If it were as close as you say DB, the best trend marker of all (betting odds) would be a helluva lot closer than it is. To the extent that you can still get $1.60 for ALP, I think that is a function of the media coverage this week inflating the odds.
I think the betting markets having the ALP favourites has more to do with history than what’s happening currently.
Dr. Feneley has built up quite a profile after running in 2010 and also for Maroubra in 2011 whereas despite being a senator for a few years Mr. Thistlewaite wasn’t widely know around here prior to his nomination.
Plus Maroubra should have fallen with the swing in 2011 to the Liberals however Michael Daley’s popularity and high local profile only saw his primary vote drop by 9% to still hang on.
MCBAL – I tend to agree with your point about making the results less reliable for those people under 35, but it is not necessarily favourable to the Coalition. It only means it is less reliable. Do Newspoll and Nielsen call mobiles? I didn’t think they did.
As for Kingsford Smith I genuinely believe this will be very close.
I have always voted Labor but I won’t be voting for Matt Thistlewaite. I’ve had a gutful of lawyer politicians. We don’t need another one.
There are 7 candidates running. The Christian democrats got the top spot on the ticket, which may help Feneley. Ballot paper as follows:
1. Jackie Shia (Fred Nile Christian Democrats),
2. Danielle Somerfield (Rise Up Australia),
3. Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor)
4. Dianne Happ (Palmer United Party)
5. Michael Feneley (Liberal)
6. Geordie Lucas (Future Party)
7. James Macdonald (The Greens)
As I understand it the future party are centrist/left leaning.
Labor’s how to vote instructs people to put the liberals dead last.
Correction, Palmer is running Diane Olga Happ.
I think we are all seriously overstating the top spot on the ballot paper. Think we all know what polling day is like and theres very limited opportunities to do a donkey vote with every party handing how to votes
It’s probably worth 0.25%, so not much.
I will be putting Mr. Thistlewaite last on my ballot paper despite the Liberals recommending the Greens be put last (ALP 6th).
Also the pre-polling station up the road from my house has a van out the front with posters of Dr. Feneley and Mr. Thistlewaite all over it!
Odds have gone to a very very juicy $1.75 for Labor now. Keep talking up the chances of a Lib victory guys and I’ll be toasting you on election night. This seat held for the ALP in 1966 and 1975 but if people want to bet against me, please be my guest:)
Get on board MCBAL. But don’t be too disappointed if it doesn’t work out for you. Personally, I think Labor will win this seat, but I expect the margin to be less than 2%. And only a fool would bet on that.
Yeah but DB I’ve been reading this site, and it seems to me that you seem to reckon the Liberals are going to win pretty much any ALP seat on a margin under 10%!
I don’t agree..and I’m putting my money where my mouth is (are you?) and you are welcome to your views about gambling but I don’t agree with you on that either:)
Another lunatic joining the mental asylum.
There will be a further swing, as it will be two new candidates. I expect Coogee and Maroubra to swing to the Coalition, with support being maintained the closer you get to the airport.
Will it be enough? I thought that this was on a pretty hard margin already but the numbers are suggesting that there is more give to come. I agree with DB. It will be less than 2% either way.
Hawkeye, that first sentence is a bit too harsh. I understand the despair of die-hard Labor supporters which triggers some nasty responses I receive from time to time. Observer is the classic example. I understand losing to Abbott would be like losing an AFL/NRL Grand Final. But MCBAL mental? Don’t think so. He is just a passionate Labor supporter and that is a good thing.
MCBAL, no I don’t actually think the Libs will win all seats under 10%. You should read what I write more. But I reckon the Coalition will win an additional 8 or 9 seats in NSW and NSW will see the most seats change hands. And polling backs me up.
Bookies don’t take large enough bets for it to be worth my while, nor do I get off on making a couple of bucks. The only picks I take are ones I know I’ll win and yes, when that happens, I do put my money where my mouth is. And it’s generally on the stock market or property, not an election.
Gosh, I’m not even 100% sure the Coalition will win the election yet. I’m 90% sure, but not 100%. As for Kingsford Smith, I reckon the Libs chances are probably at 40% or so, so you will probably win. But I expect a swing against Labor in this seat. The swing will probably be below the average of Sydney however.
Garrett only got in last time around on Green preferences. The Liberal party had a good swing to it. I don’t think there’s doubt that they won’t take the seat.
My interest in elections is more financial than anything else. In previous elections I have made lots of money backing the Liberals – and if the price was right I would back them again in a NY minute.
What is interesting about this election is that I think there are a lot of passionate Liberal supporters so taken with the idea of getting rid of Labor that they are betting with their heart, not their heads (and paying far too much attention to landline based polling). If the Liberal supporters could point me toward a seat where there candidate is under the odds, I would be all over it like flies on the proverbial. The thing is – I can’t find any of these seats because the odds are running like it is a dead set certainty that there will be a Liberal landslide, but my opinion is that there will not be a landslide. In this election my betting analysis is that the ALP candidates are offering value in the marginal seats.
I have a very objective view of all politicians. I don’t have a thing for Matt T, I thought it was pretty accurate and funny when News Ltd called KRudd KRude this morning. Having said that, Tony does nothing for me, and nor does Christine Milne. When I look at the choices in my electorate I despair because none of them really do it for me (for different reasons). I’m going to have to look closer at the independents.
You lot are the ones tainted by passion for your team! Kingsford Smith going Liberal -that is comedy gold! Don’t try and move the goalposts and claim it as a win if you get lucky enough to get close – as Jimmy Barnes says, there ain’t no second prize…
For the record – I think the likely outcome is that the Liberals will take seats from Labor in western Sydney (not eastern Sydney), Victoria and Tasmania. Labor will win some seats from the Coalition in Queensland but not enough to make up for their losses elsewhere. I reckon we are looking at something like Coalition around 81 seats +/- about 3 either way.
The Greens did not give Garrett preferences last time.
MCBAL, we are not that dissimilar in our views then. But I think the Coalition will win in the mid to high 80s at this point. I don’t follow betting in elections but I’d agree that it would appear many of the Coalition odds are rather short.
Can’t believe that some of those coastal suburbs in the northern part of the electorate have such a high labor 2PP vote…57’s…. ????
Is it just the public housing or are there greenies around Maroubra?
Or is it the university?