ALP 5.2%
Incumbent MP
Peter Garrett, since 2004.
Geography
South-eastern Sydney. Kingsford Smith covers southern parts of the Eastern Suburbs of Sydney, including all of Botany Council and most of Randwick Council. Kingsford Smith includes the suburbs of Coogee, Randwick, Maroubra, Mascot, Malabar and Kensington.
History
Kingsford Smith was first created for the 1949 election after the House of Representatives was expanded. The seat has always been held by the ALP, originally being a marginal seat in its early years before gradually becoming safer, and it has been solidly safe since at least the 1960s.
Gordon Anderson (ALP) won the seat in 1949 with a bare 50.9% margin over the Liberal Party, and only won a 50.5% margin upon reelection in 1951. Anderson won with 54.2% in 1954, before retiring in 1955.
The seat was won in 1955 by Daniel Curtin (ALP), who had previously held the seat of Watson since 1949. Curtin won in 1955 with 55% of the vote, and the seat’s has only dipped below 5% once since 1955, in the 1966 landslide.
Curtin held the seat until 1969, and in that time solidified the ALP’s hold on the seat, but was almost defeated at his last election in 1966.
Curtin retired in 1969 and was succeeded by the state member for Randwick, Lionel Bowen, who won the seat with a margin over 10% for the first time. Bowen was a minister in the Whitlam government and became a senior member of the ALP in opposition in the late 1970s.
Bowen served as Deputy Prime Minister for the first three terms of the Hawke government, from 1983 until his retirement at the 1990 election.
He was succeeded in 1990 by Laurie Brereton. Brereton had briefly succeeded Bowen as member for Randwick from 1970 until the seat was abolished in 1971, when he moved to the seat of Heffron. Brereton served as a minister in the Wran and Unsworth governments before switching to the federal arena in 1990, after the Liberals won a landslide victory in New South Wales.
Brereton served as a federal minister in the final term of the Keating government and served as Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 1996 until 2001, when he moved to the backbench.
In 2004 Brereton retired and was succeeded by Peter Garrett, former lead singer of Midnight Oil and President of the Australian Conservation Foundation. Garrett had also previously run for the Nuclear Disarmament Party in the Senate at the 1984 election, losing due to the Labor and Liberal parties preferencing each other over the NDP.
Garrett joined the ALP frontbench upon the election of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader in late 2006. Garrett served as Environment Minister in the first term of the Labor government, and as Minister for School Education since the 2010 election.
Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Peter Garrett is not running for re-election.
- Jacquie Shiha (Christian Democratic Party)
- Danielle Somerfield (Rise Up Australia)
- Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor)
- Michael Feneley (Liberal)
- Geordie Lucas (Future Party)
- James Macdonald (Greens)
Assessment
Kingsford Smith is held by Peter Garrett by a vulnerable 5.2%, and could be in danger in 2013. However the eastern suburbs of Sydney are not known for large swings, and this seat could remain in Labor hands while seats with larger margins fall.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Garrett | ALP | 35,957 | 43.83 | -8.93 |
| Michael Feneley | LIB | 33,836 | 41.25 | +7.31 |
| Lindsay Shurey | GRN | 9,885 | 12.05 | +1.63 |
| Josh Carmont | DEM | 1,047 | 1.28 | +1.28 |
| John Cunningham | ON | 728 | 0.89 | +0.89 |
| Zac Hambides | SEP | 576 | 0.70 | -0.56 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Peter Garrett | ALP | 45,249 | 55.16 | -8.10 |
| Michael Feneley | LIB | 36,780 | 44.84 | +8.10 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Botany Bay have been grouped together. Booths in the City of Randwick have been split between Coogee in the north and Maroubra in the south.
The ALP’s margin varied from 60.2% in Botany to 53.7% in Maroubra. The Greens vote varied from 15.4% in Coogee to 8.8% in Botany.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Coogee | 15.46 | 54.61 | 25,146 | 30.66 |
| Maroubra | 9.80 | 53.70 | 22,385 | 27.29 |
| Botany | 8.82 | 60.18 | 14,313 | 17.45 |
| Other votes | 12.58 | 53.92 | 20,185 | 24.61 |
This is my seat. Mr. Garrett would probably have his nose in front at the moment but Dr. Feneley has been campaigning hard over the past few months so it will go right down to the wire. Also not helping Mr. Garrett was a pamphlet he put out last week which had no ALP logo whatsover on it which was picked up by the local paper.
Also my booth in Maroubra has the blue 50.1!
On present numbers I think this will be very very close. Not moving as much as the seats in the west but there is some movement.
What Garrett put out was duplicated by at least Bowen in McMahon, and, I think, Bradbury in Lindsay according to one of the newspapers.
I tend to think that this is a potential upset here, ala Smithfield/East Hills in 2011, just with a smaller margin. From the numbers in Coogee, Maroubra and others that Ben put up, compared to Botany, it would not take much for Garrett to lose. From what I’ve heard, Garrett’s a largely invisible force in the electorate.
My old electorate. I would disagree that Garrett is invisible. I used to see him quite frequently holding street stalls and the like. He’s very popular in the Maroubra to southern tip area, but perhaps less embraced in the Botany/Eastlakes/Kensington areas. I tend to agree that it will be close, but oddly there is actually room for imporvement for Garrett. He underperformed in rusted on areas like Eastlakes and Mascot, where the 2011 State booth results were actually better than the 2010 Federal ones (admittedly, Keneally had her strongest support in those suburbs).
Feneley is a pretty solid candidate, having contested both KS and Maroubra, but, you know, surely we’re better off with him as a heart surgeon!? 🙂
Would have thought that if Lab held Maroubra & Botany in 2011 they should hold this but interesting that Garrett underperformed in Botany, still 5% is probably too far for LIbs?
Interesting to see that the Coalition are now favourites to win the seat at $1.72 with the ALP at $1.87 with Sportsbet.
Also Mr. Garrett had his campaign team out a few Saturdays ago at Pacific Square shopping centre at Maroubra with his posters featuring a bright yellow Independent colour but at least he had the ALP logo this time!
Also Dr. Feneley has turned a shop front into a campaign office as well in Maroubra.
I assume demographic change is helping the Liberals here? Old industrial wasteland and public housing slowly but surely turning into new affluent housing developments?
Garrett seems like he’s under-performed among the Labor rusted ons in the south, but over-performed among the “green Liberals” in the north. Interesting dynamic at play in this seat….
DLH – if you remember, I picked East Hills to go to the Libs. Not Smithfield, however.
I still see Garrett as winning this.
DB, I hope your right but it doesnt look promising for Mr Garrett.. This will be a great seat to watch election night.
NSW Labor seriously on the nose, and I am sure there is more dirt to come out before September.
Watch the betting in this seat..
The Greens candidate for the seat of Kingsford Smith is James Macdonald.
Mr. Garrett has now firmed to $1.85 on Sportsbet with Dr. Feneley easing to $1.85 as well.
Garrett can win this, and I think he will win it, but it’s going to be a nailbiter.
A couple of things to keep in mind:
– Labor won 2 out of three state electorates in this area in 2011, one very narrowly (Feneley himself was the unlucky candidate in Maroubra). If that overall vote was repeated across the three seats, it’s practically a dead heat.
– Reachtel had it 49-51 in favour of the liberals yesterday, which would be a 5-6% swing if true . That’s not ideal, but it’s way better than some of the nightmare swings coming out of the western suburbs.
– The last time the ALP nearly lost this seat was in 1966, when they won it by less than 1% – make of that what you will.
Kingsford Smith has changed a lot since 1966. Suburbs that were once pure working class are now full of milion dollar houses or high-rise inner-city replica apartments. I’m not sure if this electorate is slowly trending blue or just toward a newer brand of Labor (which PG is probably a part of). The new area around Mascot Station, for example, is still rock solid Labor territory, but it’s demographic is more similar to the trendy inner-city than to the public housing sections of Eastlakes or Maroubra.
Expect the battle-ground for this seat to be based around the north of UNSW. This area swung solidly for Bruce Notley-Smith at NSW 2011 and I would expect a similar swing.
Apparently recent polling for the libs has shown they have lost their lead and are now throwing alot of resources to pick up kingsford
Observer, I don’t see this as an expected Liberal gain. I don’t agree that the resources from the Liberals are large in this seat.
The liberals are determined to win here they want their candidate up because he is a really good candidate and they were expected to win here until recently now there moving resources out of seats in the bag and putting them in seats that are closer
DB & Observer
In the Cunningham section i commented in depth on Garretts prospects in reply to Shirl in Syd
cheers WD
I think Garrett will serve the full term because they would probably be letting some talent get some prep and establish themselves (I’m talking about Ben Keneally)
Observer
This is the guy who threatened to resign,(if he was sacked from cabinet), & trigger a by- election bringing down the whole government !!!!. Does he really strike you as being someone to spend 3 of his golden years for the gain of the party???
look i read that story too from the same newspaper thats said in the past 3 years smith, bowen, combet, shorten, butler would be leading in a week…never happened. He knows what he would be perceived as if he triggered a by-election. He is someone who might not necesarily be on the backbench believe it or not
Observer
Mate, you did not answer my question. Discrediting the orthodoxy about Garrett, by attributing it to one newspaper, is very disingenuous. I don’t remember any papers pulling punches on that one!!!. Garrett is a PERFORMER. He likes being the centre of attention, the importance, even worship.
and u knw what that worship is what most MPs dream for. The reception he gets is vital to attract attention something that ur average Minister doesn’t have. Garrett is able to get people to listen which is vital in opposition
Observer
You don’t see that there is something fundamentally unwell, about an individual, needing to be worshiped??
I dont think he needs to be he gets it automatically. People like the idea of a rockstar being their local MP and he is well known as an Australian icon.
Observer
Well we will have to wait & see. Those 4-5 other careers look better to me, & i’ll bet they will to Peter, when the moment comes.
I think Peter Garrett is a rock-star minister: All style, no substance. Ever since he had the Environment Ministry stripped off him in the wake of the Pink-Bats fiasco, he has pretty much been hiding away.
People seem to forget as well that most of his home-life was spent based in Balgowlah and Gordon. Yes, he went to UNSW but that is about it until his election.
Petty, partisan rubbish Hawkeye. Clearly you are neither a resident of Kingsford Smith nor had anything to do with any of Garrett’s portfolios beyond what you saw on the TV. If you were either you would know that he is widely considered both a hard working local member and a conscientious minister. I think you’ll find that even Lib MPs regard Garrett as one of the hardest working and fair-minded Ministers in the Government.
To state that he is ‘in hiding’ is ridiculous. He has been spearheading the Gonski reforms and has been all over the media.
It’s one thing to criticise members – many deserve it – but ill-informed smears add nothing to this site.
Hawkeye,
Mr Garrett I agree his schooling was in the North Shore of Sydney (West Gordon Primary and Barker College), he also attended ANU in Canberra obtained an Arts Degree. ANU politics until 1985 was ruled by the “Left Alliance”, I am assuming ANU is where his social awareness and social conscience flourished. In 1971-72 Goff Whitlam and the awakening from social conservatism would have also helped him develop his thoughts on the future of Australia.
Hawkeye it doesnt matter where you are born or come from, your family peers and life experience will make up your views and your politics.
Mr Garrett was thrust into a postion for the Environment he was NOT ready for. HE DIDNOT serve an apprenticeship and therefore no time to understand how government works. Mr Garrett has learnt a valuable lesson, and is working very hard under his new portfolio.
Even though the election looks like the Coalition will win I think Mr Garrett will keep his seat.
Jimmy Ng is the Palmer United Party candidate:
http://palmerunited.com/2013/06/clive-palmer-announces-jimmy-ng-as-palmer-united-party-candidate-for-kingsford-smith/
Ben Keneally?
Maybe Carr could move to the Lower House.
Or they could bring KKK out of political retirement.
But that would be a major mistake given ICAC.
Good point Mergieb about Carr, good choice given that Ben Keneally would want some time to establish himself in the area and Carr isn’t likely to be in for a decade if he moved houses. Then poses the Q who would replace him in the senate?
or Rudd backer Ursula Stephens is rewarded and moved from the death spot on the senate NSW ticket
@ PJ
“Kingsford Smith has changed a lot since 1966. Suburbs that were once pure working class are now full of milion dollar houses or high-rise inner-city replica apartments.”
I quite agree. We moved to a vastly different Maroubra in 1966 to what it is today. The demographics have changed dramatically in almost the entire area.
Much of what was public housing in South Maroubra has been sold. You couldn’t give land/houses away in Malabar, Little Bay, Matraville and Long Bay. These areas now boast multi- million dollar houses, plus a whole new sub-division on the land which housed the Prince Henry Hospital
I am active politically in the Randwick Municipality and Coogee Electorate and involved in electioneering in Kingsford Smith, I would have said that Garret didn’t stand a chance, he is not well liked. Who knows who the ALP will replace him with? I still tend to think that the AP is so ‘on the nose’ that the Liberal Party will take the seat.
Michael Fenely is a well known and a well liked local identity and last election increased the Liberal vote by 7.31, whilst Garrett dropped 8.93
This seat should be interesting. I suspect Thislethwaite will run (His senate seat probably won’t got to datyari, he probably will stick around for the state rebuilding that he has started) and he will have excellent support in maroubra and Botany will stick with labor strongly especially if Ron Hoenig campaigns for Matt. The randwick and coogee parts will be difficult but i suspect now that voters in those areas have been able to ditch labor at a state level and pink bat garrett gone, the libs won’t be able to target the labor candidate. The libs have an excellent candidate but whether the libs decide to get him across the line or still go for seats like Mcmahon and Werriwa will determine whether this is in the blue collumn on election but will be line ball i suspect
Local MP Michael Daley in the SMH on Thistlehwaite:
”If he decides to run, I would support him. He was born and bred in Maroubra Junction, is president of the Maroubra Surf Club and president of the Maroubra Police Citizens Youth Club.”
It was a big swing last time, perhaps inflated by Alan Jones running a campaign specifically against Garrett. We’ll see what happens now, but if Thistlehwaite nominates, I think, given improved polling, that should be enough.
Observer
You are unbelievable . On this same page you are defending Garrett, & now that he’s gone, you put in the slipper !!!! “Pink batt Garrett”. You should be in politics !!!.
PJ
Agree Thistlehwaite is a game-changer. Indeed if he nominates thats it, game over.
No I’m a labor supporter winediamond but the pink bats played a huge role in the swing against him, I assume there should be one against Greg Smith NSW Attorney General for the parole issue earlier this month. I think Garrett has done a good job but the pink bats played a role, he was targeted nationally, I’m not attacking him im merely stating a fact that lead to his swing in KS. U can’t honestly tell me that the liberal was so good he got an 8% swing against garrett
I still think we can get Liberal over the line.. We did in in the Coogee Electorate, no reason we can’t do the same here.
Observer
Gotta say i wish the public had the awareness you credit them with. No i dont think the lib candidate was that good. i do think the ALP is destroying it’s own core constituency, very successfully. Especially in NSW.
Unlikely Jones had any influence on the result in Kingsford Smith last time – most of the people who listen to him don’t vote for the ALP – he doesn’t shift votes.
Shirl I think your reading too much into the coogee result, that seat was expected to fall. and winediamond the liberal candidate is incredible he should be catered with warringah when the libs lose and Abbott quits his seat, and the ALP problem is communicating but Rudd will do an effective job and I think the ALP has done a good job in this area but wouldn’t be surprised if this comes to the wire
I’ve been doing a bit of reading and thinking.
The Botany area is not necessarily as Left as it used to be, it’s a very trendy, upcoming area now. Some ‘very nice’ housing developments have been built with some large houses.
Parts of Coogee, Randwick have had a very big demographic change, that applies to parts of Kensington too. That along with Malabar, Little Bay, Long Bay, La Perouse etc going very up market could make a huge vote difference.
I’ve also been reading about Thistlewhaite considering his options. He is abandoning a cushy Senate seat if he nominates for Kingsford Smith with a seat that not assured
The Botany area is absolutely labor as you will find. They love locals who grow up in the area thats why Ron Hoenig was so popular in both the mayoral race and the By-election. Even at the local council election last year, labor stormed in with absolutely no difficulty which was surprising considering the long term mayor was not running. Moroubra will hold for labor strongly/ whilst i do agree the changes in randwick and coogee will make it difficult, I can’t see the two being as agressive as the state election which isn’t great for the libs.
Matt Thisletwaite knows that if he wants to be promoted, the senate isn’t for him. He is talented and has to be consistent, it would be far more difficult in the senate especially when you have the likes of the two carrs, mcLucas, wong, collins, Lundy and now a competitor in Cameron who will get more priority for backing Rudd. KS is Matt’s only option if he wants to go anywhere in his career
Labour naturally stormed home in Botany given the was little or no option to vote otherwise. There is a big influx of South Africans to the area and you might well see more votes there for the Right than usual. As I said too areas where it was impossible nearly to give houses away in the past, now boast houses in the millions. South Maroubra has changed dramatically too. There is very little public housing there any more.
Liberal also did very well in the Council Elections. We now have a Liberal Councillor in all 5 wards with 2 in West Ward surprisingly, which is Kingsford/Kensington
Anyhow, we’ll have to wait and see.
Two candidates have put their hand up for ALP preselection – Senator Matt Thistlethwaite and Randwick Mayor Tony Bowen (son of former DPM Lionel).
http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/city-east/senator-matt-thistlthwaite-and-randwick-mayor-tony-bowen-will-fight-for-the-labor-preselection-for-kingsford-smith/story-fngr8h22-1226672987550
This could end up being the surprise on election night.
Also just on the demographics thing – I agree with PJ’s comment about how “I’m not sure if this electorate is slowly trending blue or just toward a newer brand of Labor (which PG is probably a part of).”
In my opinion most of the new residents in Kingsford Smith are either small l liberals, or they are chardonnay-left wing types. They certainly aren’t right wing Tories who buy into a conservative vision for the country. They’d give Turnbull or Bruce Notley-Smith a go, but someone like Tony Abbott will have a really hard time.
At the same time they hate anything that looks either conservative or unprofessional in the ALP, and want a progressive, hard working and strong candidate who cares about the environment, education and social justice. As long as Labor doesn’t get complacent about this, people will still be prepared to vote for them.
I know the liberals fantasize about this seat becoming the new Wentworth, yet it’s taken my entire lifetime for the “Hindenburg line” (nobody North of it votes Labor) to go from Bondi Junction to Clovelly Road. A bit more time is needed.