Kennedy – Australia 2013

KAP vs LNP 18.3%

Incumbent MP
Bob Katter, since 1993. Previously state Member for Flinders 1974-1992.

Geography
Far North Queensland and northwestern Queensland. Kennedy covers a large part of Queensland’s land mass, stretching from the Queensland coast between Cairns and Townsville (although containing neither, and stretching inland to the Northern Territory boundary, covering the inland towns of Mount Isa and Charters Towers. Other major towns include Innisfail, Ingham, Tully, Mareeba and Gordonvale.

History
Kennedy is an original federation electorate. It was mainly held by the ALP until 1966, and since then it has mainly been held by members of the Katter family, first for the Country/National Party and latterly as an independent.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Charles McDonald of the ALP in 1901. McDonald was elected as the first Labor Speaker in 1910 when the ALP won a majority in Parliament for the first time, and served in the role for the entirety of the Labor governments of 1910-1913 and 1914-1917, although he went to the backbench when the Labor government split over conscription in 1917. He held the seat until his death in 1925.

The ensuing by-election was won by Nationalist candidate Grosvenor Francis. Francis won re-election in 1928 but lost Kennedy to the ALP’s Darby Riordan.

Riordan held Kennedy until his death in 1936, when he was succeeded by his nephew Bill Riordan. Riordan held the seat for thirty years, and retired in 1966.

The 1966 election saw Kennedy won by the Country Party’s Bob Katter Sr. Katter was a former member of the ALP who left the party in 1957 when the Queensland Labor Party split from the federal party, and ended up in the Country Party. He briefly served as a minister in the McMahon government for ten months in 1972 before the election of the Whitlam government.

Katter Sr died in 1990 shortly before the federal election, and the seat was won by the ALP’s Rob Hulls, who ran a business in Mount Isa. Hulls held the seat for one term, losing to Bob Katter Jr, a former state MP, at the 1993 election. Hulls moved to Victoria and was elected to the Victorian state parliament in 1996. Rob Hulls went on to serve as a minister in the Bracks government and as Deputy Premier in the Brumby government.

Katter Jr was a strong supporter of Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s state government, and found himself at odds with the federal Liberal/National coalition. He resigned from the Nationals in 2001 and easily won re-election as an independent in 2001, and at the next three elections.

Following the 2010 federal election, Katter found himself sharing the balance of power with fellow independents. He broke with fellow independents in refusing to support a minority Labor government.

In 2011, Bob Katter founded a minor party led by himself, named Katter’s Australian Party (KAP). The KAP performed strongly at the 2012 Queensland state election, winning 11.5% of the statewide vote. One of two MPs who had defected from the Liberal National Party to the KAP retained their seats, and Katter’s son Rob won the seat of Mount Isa. A third LNP member defected to the KAP following the election.

Candidates

  • George Brazier (Palmer United Party)
  • Chester Gordon Tuxford (Independent)
  • Jenny Stirling (Greens)
  • Bob Katter (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Pam Hecht (Rise Up Australia)
  • Dan Vogler (Family First)
  • Noeline Ikin (Liberal National)
  • Andrew Turnour (Labor)

Assessment
Bob Katter should have no trouble winning re-election.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Katter IND 38,170 46.71 +9.91
Ed Morrison LNP 21,737 26.60 +0.30
Andrew Turnour ALP 16,513 20.21 -8.78
Jess Jones GRN 3,669 4.49 +1.11
Fred Dykstra FF 1,633 2.00 +0.02

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Bob Katter IND 55,852 68.34
Ed Morrison LNP 25,870 31.66
Polling places in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election. Cassowary Coast in light blue, Charters Towers in dark blue, Hinchinbrook in orange, Mount Isa in yellow, Mulgrave in dark green, Tablelands in red, West in light green. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election. Cassowary Coast in light blue, Charters Towers in dark blue, Hinchinbrook in orange, Mount Isa in yellow, Mulgrave in dark green, Tablelands in red, West in light green. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into eight areas. Kennedy covers a massive geographic area.

Most of the booths lie close to the east coast of Queensland. Booths in Tablelands and Cassowary Coast council areas have been grouped together under the name of the council. Those booths in the south of Cairns Regional Council have been grouped as ‘Mulgrave’.

Booths in Carpentaria, Hinchinbrook and Townsville local council areas, along with a single booth across the border in Charters Towers council area have been grouped together as “Hinchinbrook”.

Booths in the inland towns of Mount Isa and Charters Towers have been grouped, with the remainder of remote polling places being grouped as ‘West’.

The two-candidate-preferred vote for Bob Katter over the Liberal National Party varied from 63.5% in Mount Isa to 75.2% in Charters Towers.

The ALP came third, with their vote varying from 25.8% in Mulgrave to 17.9% in Cassowary Coast.

Voter group ALP % IND 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Tablelands 18.02 68.25 17,586 21.52
Cassowary Coast 17.92 69.15 13,363 16.35
Hinchinbrook 22.54 70.92 8,910 10.90
Mulgrave 25.77 71.74 8,687 10.63
Mount Isa 25.21 63.48 6,933 8.48
Charters Towers 19.09 75.21 4,317 5.28
West 20.61 70.22 3,664 4.48
Other votes 18.48 64.81 18,262 22.35
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the north-east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the north-east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the north-east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the north-east of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Mount Isa at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in Mount Isa at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in Mount Isa at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the Charters Towers part of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Two-candidate-preferred votes in the Charters Towers part of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the Charters Towers part of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.
Labor primary votes in the Charters Towers part of Kennedy at the 2010 federal election.

19 COMMENTS

  1. Ben,

    6th paragraph in history refers to Hulls as Deputy Premier of Victoria in the present tense.

    Cheers

  3. Obviously Katter will win in Kennedy.

    KAP preferences (and alternatively preferencing to KAP) could determine outcomes in a few HoR seats and in the Senate. Rumour is that KAP will preference on a seat-by-seat basis with the Coalition getting preferences in about 75% of seats and Labor 25%. In the Senate, I’d expect KAP to do a deal to try and secure the 4th Senate spot.

  4. Katter does have stronger Labor ties than one might imagine. He is furiously anti-457 visas, which the Libs support far more than Labor; he has some pretty significant links to the unions, in particular the CFMEU. Of course, he’s more of a Tory, but I’ve heard similar rumours to DB and wouldn’t be surprised if he splits the tickets.

  5. Actually if you look at those union links, protectionism and his anti deregulation stance you could argue he is more a socialist than a Torie.

    The LNP people I talk to really rate Noelene Ikin as a candidate. They are even talking up an outside chance of taking the seat. I am not sure about that, but I believe it could possibly be the highest LNP vote since Katter left the party.

  8. ABC Tweet: “Andrew Turnour has been preselected as Labor’s candidate in Kennedy (QLD). He contested the seat at the last election”

  10. I agree with PJ and Qld Observer above. Katter has used Dean Mighell, ex ETU, as an IR advisor in the past. He, Dean Mighell, is definitely no traditional conservative. Even the ALP do not like associating too closed with him.

  11. That’s a “secret leaked internal poll” so wouldn’t necessarily trust it.

    I do think however that Katter’s deal with Labor in those key marginals will hurt him. Might explain why Palmer appears to be stealing his thunder.

  12. I’d really doubt that Katter is an any trouble whatsoever, however, I will make some general commentary in the Day 26 link.

  13. The labor deal as well as Palmer’s massive advertising blitz (Katter I haven’t seen an ad for) is hurting Katter.

  15. Katter is like Clive, funny to watch, but do you really want him in a position of power?
    Or is it just a QLD thing (Katter/Palmer/Rudy/Beaty)?

  17. From what I’ve heard, the LNP pushed the KAP/ALP preference deal really strongly in this electorate, particularly in the last few weeks.

    Aside from that, is it possible that a large proportion of the PUP vote must have come from KAP, and then preferenced over to the LNP?

  19. Macca BNE is correct, the LNP ran a strong campaign against Katter in the final fortnight. Targeting his preference deal swap with Labor causing to eat away at his primary vote. I was amazed at just how well that seemed to work for the LNP. Noeline Ikin was a great candidate, but in an electorate as large and vast as Kennedy I didn’t think it would work as well as it did. Bob will have to re-think his strategy for next election if he is to stand again to ensure he doesn’t end up in the same predicament.

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