Indi – Australia 2013

LIB 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Sophia Mirabella, since 2001.

Map of Indi's 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Indi’s 2010 and 2013 boundaries. 2010 boundaries marked as red lines, 2013 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
North-eastern Victoria.  Indi runs along the Murray River and stretches inland to cover Wodonga, Wangaratta, Towong, Mansfield, Murrindindi, Indigo, Benalla and Alpine council areas, and a part of Moira council area. The major cities in the seat are Wodonga and Wangaratta.

Redistribution
Changes were made to Indi’s western, boundary, losing Strathbogie council area to Murray, and gaining Murrindindi council area from McEwen. This reduced the Liberal margin from 9.9% to 9.0%.

History
Indi is an original federation electorate. Apart from four elections when the ALP won the seat, Indi has almost always been won by the Coalition parties and their predecessors.

The seat was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Isaac Isaacs. Isaacs was a radical member of the Protectionist party and did not get along with most of his party. He was appointed Attorney-General in Alfred Deakin’s government in 1905, but in 1906 he was appointed to the High Court. Isaacs served on the High Court for 24 years. In 1930 he was appointed Chief Justice by Labor Prime Minister James Scullin. Shortly after, Scullin decided to break with tradition by appointing an Australian-born Governor-General, and chose Isaacs. Isaacs served as Governor-General until 1936.

Indi was won in 1906 by Anti-Socialist candidate Joseph Brown, a former Victorian state MP. Brown joined the merged Liberal Party in 1909, although he was a fierce critic of Alfred Deakin. He lost Indi in 1910 to the ALP’s Parker Moloney.

Moloney held Indi until the 1913 election, when he lost to the Liberal Party’s Cornelius Ahern, but Moloney won it back in 1914. Moloney lost Indi again in 1917. He went on to move across the border to the neighbouring NSW seat of Hume, which at the time covered Albury. He held Hume from 1919 to 1931, and served as a minister in the Scullin government.

The Nationalist Party’s John Leckie, a Victorian state MP, won Indi in 1917. He lost the seat in 1919 to Robert Cook of the Victorian Farmers’ Union, which became the Country Party.

Cook retained Indi at the 1922 and 1925 elections, but lost the seat in bizarre circumstances in 1928, when he failed to lodge his nomination papers. The seat instead was won by the ALP’s Paul Jones.

Jones was re-elected in 1929, when Cook attempted to retain his seat, before he lost Indi to the United Australia Party’s William Hutchinson in 1931. Jones went on to serve in the Victorian Legislative Council from 1938 and 1958, and left the ALP as part of the split in 1955, ending up in the Democratic Labor Party.

Hutchinson held Indi for two terms. In 1937 he moved to the new seat of Deakin, which he held until his retirement in 1949.

Indi was won in 1937 by the Country Party’s John McEwen, who had previously won the seat of Echuca in 1934. He served as a minister in the Liberal/Country governments from 1937 to 1941.

McEwen left Indi to take the new seat of Murray in 1949, and he joined Robert Menzies’ cabinet in the new government. He was elected Country Party leader in 1958, and when Robert Menzies retired in 1966 he became the most senior figure in the government, with tremendous influence over the Country Party’s larger ally, the Liberal Party. When Prime Minister Harold Holt disappeared in late 1967, McEwen briefly served as Acting Prime Minister, and he vetoed the choice of the Treasurer, William McMahon, leading to Senator John Gorton moving to the House of Representatives and becoming Prime Minister. McEwen retired in 1971.

Indi was won in 1949 by Liberal candidate William Bostock. Bostock held the seat until the 1958 election, when he lost to the Country Party’s Mac Holten. Holten was a former footballer, and he served as Minister for Repatriation from 1969 to 1972.

In 1977, Holten was challenged by the Liberal Party’s Ewen Cameron. Despite topping the poll on primary votes, Holten lost when Cameron overtook him on Labor preferences.

Cameron held Indi until his retirement in 1993. He was succeeded in 1993 by the Liberal Party’s Lou Lieberman, a former Victorian state MP and minister. Lieberman served on the Liberal backbench until his retirement at the 2001 election.

In 2001, Indi was won by Sophie Panopoulos (now Mirabella). Mirabella served on the backbench for the entirety of the Howard government, serving as a prominent member of the hard-right faction of the Liberal Party. She was promoted to serve as a Parliamentary Secretary in the Opposition after the 2007 election, and became a Shadow Minister in 2008.

Candidates

  • Robert Dudley (Rise Up Australia)
  • Cathy McGowan (Independent)
  • Rick Leeworthy (Family First)
  • Sophia Mirabella (Liberal)
  • Helma Aschenbrenner (Sex Party)
  • William Hayes (Bullet Train For Australia)
  • Robyn Walsh (Labor)
  • Jenny O’Connor (Greens)
  • Phil Rourke (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Robert Murphy (Palmer United Party)
  • Jennifer Podesta (Independent)

Assessment
Indi is a safe Liberal seat on paper. Reports suggest that independent Cathy McGowan has the potential to buck the trend and win the seat off Mirabella, possibly with the assistance of Labor and Greens preferences.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sophie Mirabella LIB 44,555 52.62 -1.76
Zuvele Leschen ALP 23,034 27.20 -4.92
Jenny O’Connor GRN 8,000 9.45 +1.87
Alan Lappin IND 4,945 5.84 +5.84
Robert Cavedon FF 3,190 3.77 -0.05
Mark Carey DEM 947 1.12 -0.57

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Sophie Mirabella LIB 50,755 59.94 +0.75
Zuvele Leschen ALP 33,916 40.06 -0.75
Polling places in Indi at the 2010 federal election. East in orange, Indigo in pink, South in red, West in green, Wodonga in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Indi at the 2010 federal election. East in orange, Indigo in pink, South in red, West in green, Wodonga in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Wodonga and Indigo council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. The remainder were split into East, South and West.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the vote in all five areas, varying from 54.5% in Indigo to 62.8% in the east.

Voter group GRN % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of ordinary votes
West 8.67 60.04 15,949 28.56
Wodonga 8.56 56.44 13,050 23.37
South 10.79 56.33 10,236 18.33
East 9.91 62.75 8,810 15.77
Indigo 12.53 54.53 7,807 13.98
Other votes 9.33 61.61 30,471
Two-party-preferred votes in Indi at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Indi at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wodonga at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wodonga at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wangaratta at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Wangaratta at the 2010 federal election.

138 COMMENTS

  1. I’m curious why Indi is comparatively marginal when compared to the other Northern Vic electorates (Mallee – 23% and Murray – 19%), given that they seem to have fairly similar demographics. Any ideas?

    I understand that the former Labor member for Benalla, Denise Allen, will be the ALP candidate for this seat.

  4. ohhh I can think of why this seat polls relatively badly for the Liberals
    it has to do with the poor quality of the sitting mp

  5. Any one have a view on whether the comments by Windsor / Oakshotte on Sunday’s insiders program help or hinder Sophie M.?

  6. I’m going to go with no difference. Simple reason: People who watch Insiders are not swinging voters.

  9. fwiw, centrebet initially listed the ‘independent’ option at $51 in Indi, and have since rolled it into $8. Sportsbet, as well, have the seat at $6 to go to any non-ALP/LNP candidate.

    I have no idea if that has to do with Windsor’s comments or if there’s something happening on the ground, though.

  10. ohhh New England used to be rock solid np too…… but they took it for granted a country
    member who is out of touch and to be generous a triffle unpleasant is courting trouble

  11. Similar demographics? This is a much less agricultural seat than Murray & Mallee, the Libs are now a good fit for the seat even with a candidate like Sophie M.

  12. propmike, 5 July. “I have no idea if that has to do with Windsor’s comments or if there’s something happening on the ground, though.”

    Difficult to think of a more polarising figure than Mirabella in the LNP, save for Abbott. I don’t think that Windsors comments had much affect though perhaps they are tapping into a local sentiment, http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/1610378/windsor-sophie-mirabella-doesnt-get-country-people/?cs=11

    More likely, Mirabella’s appearance on Q&A the other week? She seems to be getting some local flak for declining to attend public debates/forums. Still a comfortable win.

  13. @PJ – I watch Insiders, and I’m a swinging voter! (Not that it makes much difference in a safe seat, other than perhaps affirming or scaring the incumbent party).

    I agree that the local candidate may be the reason the more ‘marginal’ (at 9%?!) nature of the seat. Sophie Mirabella does not come across as reasonable on any of her appearances in the media (think QandA) and does not do the Liberal Party any favours.

    In addition, there was a long article a major newspaper last year about her personal circumstances which did not cast her in a favourable light. (See for example http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/probate-win-fires-legal-row-for-mp-sophie-mirabella/story-fn59niix-1226245911961 – and there were details elsewhere I cannot locate at present).

    Politics is local, and a friend in the electorate also notes the lack of participation or engagement by Mirabella (outside of election times). I dare say the seat is ‘taken for granted’.

  15. Big push from independent Catchy McGowan, she’s a former Liberal staffer from the area. It will be interesting to see whether she’ll actually be able to turn some Liberal voters away from Mirabella or whether she will just pick up Labor voters shooting for the best chance to out Mirrabella.

    Can anyone from the electorate tell us what the mood is?

  18. Alain – She was a staffer for Liberal member Ewen Cameron.

    “She began her career in rural Victoria working as a teacher in Wangaratta, and then as electoral assistant for Ewen Cameron, the Federal Member for Indi, in the 1980s and later with the Victorian Department of Agriculture.”

    Source: http://www.cathymcgowan.com.au/

  20. I know that it’s quite unlikely that Ms Mirabella will lose the seat at this election, but is there any polling, internal or otherwise, about voting intentions in this seat?

    I ask because, looking at the Senate vote here in 2010, I’ve found that the “left” parties – Labor, Greens, Democrats, Carers Alliance, Sex Party, Secular Party, and the Socialist parties – represent 43.92% of the vote. For comparison, in 2007, the same parties (plus the Equal Parenting party) got just 41.82% of the vote. And in 2004, including a few more parties that have since disappeared, they got only 34.22% of the vote.

    It looks like there’s a shift in alignment within the electorate, and Mirabella has been keeping her margin through personal vote. Given that both KAP and PUP should be able to draw votes away from her, I think the margin here could be significantly smaller than in the past.

  22. Ah, I wasn’t certain. It doesn’t make much difference, anyway, since they only got 0.06% in 2007 and 0.12% in 2004, which means that the shift towards the left is even stronger.

  23. Crikey article which suggests that LIBs see McGowan as a real threat,
    “A panicked email sent from deep inside the Mirabella camp to Liberal volunteers last week, obtained by Crikey, reveals her campaign team is gearing up for a pitched battle against rural independent Cathy McGowan in the northern Victorian seat, currently held by 9% and usually considered safe.”

    “For McGowan to win, Mirabella’s primary vote would have to slide to well under 50% in the 10-candidate strong field (see below). McGowan, likely to come third, would need to benefit from Greens and minor party preferences to vault her over Labor’s Robyn Walsh, and then use Walsh’s preferences to leapfrog Mirabella. In 2010, Greens candidate Jenny O’Connor achieved 9.4% and Labor 27.2%. McGowan is not allocating preferences.”
    http://www.crikey.com.au/2013/08/07/mirabella-panics-as-indi-race-gets-closer/

  25. The key to McGowan’s chances is whether or not she can actually pull Liberal voters – as opposed to just catching Labor voters looking for a better opportunity to toss Mirabella.

  26. One of the local papers in the electorate asked Mirabella if she had anything to worry about, and in her usual gentle style she apparently said “nothing at all”.

    The paper then ran a poll – with a sizeable response – asking if Mirabella had something to worry about. Last I saw over 95% said she did ….

    Even if Abbott wins, I hope we see the last of this Member.

  27. I believe Mirabella will pull Liberal voters. Aforementioned Indi friend is a Lib supporter and tells me many similarly-minded cannot stand her abrasive manner and lack of contact with the electorate. She had more support when she had a lower media profile and fewer people knew what a nasty pasty she is.

  28. Fin Review interviewed me about this, media coverage would be essential to persuade Labor voters to shift to the independent.

  29. McGowan I assume you mean?

    I threw a lazy tenner on independent in this seat at $51 a few weeks back, so if there weren’t already enough reasons to see Mirabella kicked out…

  30. From KB’s latest Market Round-up;
    “and the one that has quite a buzz about it is rural indie Cathy McGowan’s attempt to unseat Sophie Mirabella from the seat of Indi. It will be interesting to see some polling on this one, but it is a difficult race to poll for since there may be a snowball of primary vote support for the independent if voters for other parties decide she has a real chance of winning the race. So a useful poll would ask respondents for a 2CP of Mirabella vs McGowan. McGowan is currently at around $6.50-$7. ”
    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/

  32. If you’re after a bit of a giggle and are on Facebook, check out ‘Letters About Sophie.’ Mock letters sent by Indi constituents in support of Ms Mirabella.

  34. I’m a swinging voter (bit of a waste in indi usually)but this time we have a qualtity candidate in Cathy McGowan to challenge the Toorak invader. The mood on the ground is positive which is why the campaign will turn dirty I suspect as Soph starts running scared. $51 should still be the odds, but would be good to turn the electorate a bit marginal so we can get something out of Canberra for a change. The redistribution since the last election will suit Sophie I suspect.

  36. GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes

    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Indi Primary Votes: Mirabella LIB 43.5 McGowan IND 23.3 #ausvotes

    Don’t know the sample size yet, or undecided included/excluded, or commissioning source, but that’s promising in terms of chances of a contest.

  39. No surprise but labor has announced McGowan will receive their preferences. Interestingly the reaachtel poll had undecided at about 7%. If McGowan remarkably gains that with the labor and green preferences, she would be on 52.5 tpp. But this is unlikely but it definately shows there is a contest in this seat

  43. No real knowledge of the contest here so I’ll just say Liberal retain over the Independent by a 5% margin.

  46. Been down here all week on business. Talk around town is that Mirabella has a serious fight on her hands and the locals can’t stand her. Interesting sideshow on the 7th.

  47. The Australian is reporting today that the Liberals are increasingly concerned they will lose this seat.

  48. Sandbelter – to McGowan I assume?

    I hope it works out that way. The more independents, Greens, and Minor Party MPs, the better, right now.

  50. I’ve been following this since I got home from a visit down this way. It’s fascinating stuff. Mirabella is one of the rudest MPs around and is not well liked down there. Suddenly a worthy opponent turns up and it’s game on.

Newer Comments »

Comments are closed.