ALP 14.0%
Incumbent MP
Anthony Byrne, since 1999.
Geography
South-eastern Melbourne. Holt covers the northwestern parts of Casey council area, on the edge of Melbourne. Suburbs include Cranbourne, Lynbrook, Narre Warren South, Hampton Park, Hallam, Eumemmerring, Doveton and Endeavour Hills.
Redistribution
Holt lost parts of Narre Warren South to La Trobe, which increased the ALP margin from 13.2% to 14%.
History
Holt was created at the 1969 election. It has mostly been held by the ALP, usually as a safe seat, except for a couple of elections.
Holt was first won in 1969 by former Liberal state MP Len Reid. Reid lost in 1972 to the ALP’s Max Oldmeadows.
Oldmeadows held the seat for two terms, losing in 1975 to Liberal candidate William Yates.
Yates held the seat until 1980, when he lost to the ALP’s Michael Duffy. The ALP has held Holt ever since.
Duffy served as a minister in the Labor federal government from 1983 to 1993, and retired at the 1996 election.
Holt was won in 1996 by senior Labor figure Gareth Evans. Evans had been a Senator since 1977, and had served as a cabinet minister for the entire length of the Hawke/Keating government. He moved to Holt in 1996, and was elected Deputy Leader of the Labor Party after the defeat of the Keating government.
Evans retired in 1999, and the ensuing by-election was easily won by the ALP’s Anthony Byrne, with no Liberal opposition. Byrne served as a Parliamentary Secretary in the first term of the Labor government, and was re-elected in 2010.
Candidates
- Bobby Singh (Palmer United Party)
- Ricardo Balancy (Liberal)
- Jackie McCullough (Greens)
- Pam Keenan (Family First)
- Anthony Byrne (Labor)
- Jonathan Eli (Rise Up Australia)
- Lachlan Smith (Sex Party)
- Michael Palma (Democratic Labour Party)
- Vivian Hill (Australian Christians)
Assessment
Holt is a safe Labor seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Byrne | ALP | 51,998 | 54.42 | -1.23 |
| Ricardo Balancy | LIB | 29,254 | 30.62 | -3.60 |
| Frank di Mascolo | GRN | 8,745 | 9.15 | +5.03 |
| Ian George | FF | 4,772 | 4.99 | +0.60 |
| Mark Hitchins | SEC | 776 | 0.81 | +0.81 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Anthony Byrne | ALP | 60,412 | 63.23 | +1.60 |
| Ricardo Balancy | LIB | 35,133 | 36.77 | -1.60 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: central, north and south. The ALP won a majority in all three areas, varying from 63.9% in the north to 68.7% in the centre.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of ordinary votes |
| North | 8.84 | 63.88 | 27,188 | 43.57 |
| Central | 8.95 | 68.71 | 18,531 | 29.70 |
| South | 8.81 | 64.38 | 16,683 | 26.73 |
| Other votes | 10.30 | 59.61 | 23,396 |
While this seat and Hotham have the same margin, I expect Holt to have a significantly lower margin post-election.
Wasn’t this seat very marginal in 2004? Also, this is a mortgage belt seat (IIRC), hence pretty volatile and prone to huge shifts. Won’t fall, but I think that the margin will be cut quite significantly.
It was very marginal in 2004, only 1.5% that year, compared to Hotham’s 7.4% margin.
Holt is definitely almost entirely a mortgage belt seat these days. Holt became more marginal in 2004, partly because of demographic shifts, and partly because of the redistribution after 2001, which saw some traditional Labor voting manufacturing areas get shifted to Bruce and Isaacs. The area it covers is the south eastern growth corridor in the City of Casey. People are really sensitive to housing affordability issues in the area.
Hotham is far more diverse, and there are a lot of recent migrants in Clayton South/Westall and there’s still a lot of light manufacturing.
I predict the margin will be slashed a la 2004, but Labor to hold on. Maybe 4-5% margin.