Griffith – Australia 2013

1. When Griffith last turned blue in 1996, it incorporated much of what is now the seat of Bonner, and the South Brisbane area was in the seat of Brisbane at the time, which probably helped Arch Bevis hold on there.

   Aside from a severe backlash, Rudd will be returned here.

2. 1977 redistribution I think put CBD in Griffith making it much better for Labor.

3. Yes, Griffith had the Brisbane CBD at the 1977 and 1984 redistributions. It was pretty similar to its current shape at 1992 redistribution. 1994 and 1997 redistributions it lost South Brisbane, and regained in 2003.

4. Griffith is the only seat in Queensland that Labor is strongly favoured to retain which is reflected in the latest odds in Sports Bet and Centrebet.

5. Don’t see the LNP getting up here. Great candidate. Wrong seat.

6. I ran past the LNP candidate Bill Glasson manning a road-side booth on Gladstone Road, Highgate Hill on Saturday. He got a few beeps from people driving past and a couple of people had stopped to talk to him. I’m wondering if maybe he might just get over the line here? Either way, from the looks of today’s polling, it’ll go down to the wire.

7. If you input this week’s Newspoll in Antony Green’s Election Calculator (an 8.1% uniform swing), Griffith is .4% from falling to the Coalition. As I understand it, the Qld swing is supposed to be quite large, but overall the swing is supposed to be larger in marginals than safer seats. I guess what’d I’d like to know is whether there has been recent polling in Griffith and how it compares to the expected swing in Qld (thoughts, DB?). I suspect Rudd will continue to benefit from a chip-on-the-shoulder vote, which will blunt the anti-Labor sentiment, and from the the fundamentals of the electorate. But I have absolutely no evidence to back that up.

8. I think at the last election, his vote only swung so little because people felt sorry for him (the ‘chip on the shoulder’ effect). I don’t think people will be so sympathetic this time and I think you’ll see some big swings in the marginal booths around Bulimba, Hawthorne, Balmoral Holland Park, Tarragindi, Carina and Camp Hill.

   As I said, I think if he does hold on, it’ll be very close (less than 1%), but there is a chance he could go.

9. RichR – I’ve seen no polling in Griffith itself, however, there is a large swing to the Coalition in and around this area, but more so to the suburban north of Brisbane. I personally believe Rudd will win, but I do expect all Labor held seats north of Brisbane to be lost based on current polling data. Especially, I can’t see Swan retaining Lilley given a distinct movement to the Coalition in this area in the last 2 months, coinciding with a resurgence of support for the Newman Government.

   I think Labor will end up with 4 seats in QLD if there is not a distinct change between now and the election. They could possibly pick up Brisbane.

10. DB, where do you get 4 from? Lilly, Capricornia, Petrie, Blair, Rankin all gone. Oxley most likely gone but Labor’s only chance at a second hold. No way they’ll pick up Brisbane, not in an election where they’ll be wiped out….all currently held Liberal seats in Qld will decrease in primary vote for Labor. Rudd is likely to be the sole Labor man in Qld but I’m starting to become nervous about this seat too. I’m astonished as to where you could have gotten 4 from based on Qld’s absolute hatred for Gillard. The unpopularity of the Newman gov right now is irrelevant…..that would only play a part if Gillard was somewhat liked.

11. DB’s expecting Labor to hold Griffith, Rankin, Oxley and Blair, while losing Moreton, Lilley, Petrie and Capricornia.

    My opinion is that Labor can hold Griffith (although every time I go out in the area, it seems less and less likely), and possibly Rankin. I think Blair and Oxley are already gone.

12. I think Oxley will go from what my sources tell me. Rankin I am not as sure about, though Lin is high profile.

    Blair I have less information on but I am told it falls before Rankin and Oxley so it must be likely to go.

13. Where are you getting your sources from Queensland Observer re Blair, Oxley and Rankin?

    Agreed that Griffith with be tough for the LNP. Hope Glasson can do it as he is a top candidate.

14. Well I think having a former PM and foreign affairs minister would make you the best candidate but I think this seat will hold especially if KRudd is this popular labor identity that he has been made out to be. I think that Blair, Oxley and Rankin will hold I think Brisbane will be very tough for the LNP especially without Bartlett running which caused a leakage of preferences in what saw the progressive parties hold the majority even though the elected MP didn’t represent that. Just because Gillard may be unpopular doesn’t mean Newman is escused considering that the LNP have a history of saying don’t wait till state elections to show your anger at the State gov as evident by the Bligh factor in the federal campaign

15. I’m not being absolute in identifying specific seats in QLD because I think there will be some that are quite close and trying to work out how PUP and KAP preferences will flow in close contests requires a bit of guesswork. Polling suggests south of Brisbane is not as bad as north of Brisbane, which is similar to the State election result. The swing in QLD is nowhere near as large as NSW/Sydney.

    I would be very surprised if Labor only held one or two seats in QLD. I don’t believe it is quite at the level of the State election whitewash.

    If Rudd wasn’t to stand, a different story.

16. If north / central Qld is about the same as the state election, where does that leave Capricornia? Labor managed to hold both Mackay and Rockhampton last year. If KAP do well, Labor could either win the seat despite a massive loss of primary vote to KAP (like Mulgrave), or miss the 2pp count completely (like Thuringowa), and there wouldn’t be much difference between the votes involved. (Mulgrave was ALP 34.4%, Lib 32.0%, KAP 30.3%; Thuringowa was Lib 36.2%, KAP 30.1%, ALP 27.4%.)

17. I keep hearing this argument about how much people hate Newman somehow affecting the federal election, but it is time for people to either face facts or make a more cogent argument. Newspoll’s TPP figures in its quarterly polling have been 60, 56, and 62% since the state election (at which the LNP received 62% on a 2PP basis). Newman’s satisfaction rating was net negative by only two points at the last publication in March.

    The hatred really seems to be about intensity of hatred on the left. If this were an American election, that might matter to an extent as it might encourage turnout (though even in the US, people tend to turn out to vote for, rather than against, someone), but with compulsory voting, it is basically meaningless.

    Even if we pretend for a moment that the hatred is widely shared amongst Queenslanders, it isn’t translating into a 2PP backlash against Newman, so why would it affect Abbott? What’s more, the federal election polling in Queensland currently points to a huge swing against Labor. So do these people just not realize yet that they will hate Newman in September?

    Frankly, the whole thing sounds like the worst example of what you see in a lot of comments here from both sides: wishful thinking.

18. My sources are a mix of unaffiliated family members and locals in those seats, as well as people within the LNP and Labor parties, plus some media sources in Brisbane. I combine what I hear with the polling in the media and through DB here to come up with some conclusions.

19. I agree completely with RichR – the Newman hate line which Swan and Emerson are pushing is misguided. The polling reflects Queenslanders still support the LNP State Government.

20. Rosemary, Glasson may well be a good candidate, but it would be a disaster if Rudd lost this seat. That would well and truly spell the end of his political career and those that knifed him would once and for all win. Sure, they’d be out of government but some of those Rudd haters in safe Labor seats aka Gillard and Combet could sit in opposition and earn their high salaries paid for by us, without the pressure of government and all the while knowing they caused Rudd to lose the Prime Ministership and now his seat and when the day came that Labor was re-built it would be done without Rudd. It would be a disaster.

21. The Australian has a story today on Bill Glasson’s campaign:
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/glassons-surgical-strike-to-unseat-kevin/story-fn59niix-1226667125400

22. K Rudd is safe again.

    Would have been an interesting contest had he have lost the ballot tonight.

23. http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/federal-election-2013-griffith-poll

    A 4% swing against the PM. In fairness, probably not unexpected given the way he was ousted in 2010. One would question though (if this poll is accurate) how many seats the ALP would be able to win in QLD.

24. It is a fascinating poll. I am trying to remember how accurate Reachtel was with the state election? I think they were out a bit regarding Jones vs Newman.

    I also have had some information come my way regarding Moreton. I will update in there.

25. If that’s true, not only won’t Labor win, they won’t get close. There is no way when you look at our political history that someone who is going to win an election and be PM would have a swing like that against them in their own seat. Tony Abbott will have a massive swing to him in his already very safe seat and that’s how history says it happens for the winning leader. Unfortunately Kevin Rudd’s time as PM will come to an end on September 7 and it will be interesting to see if he remains Labor leader.

26. The sample size of 702 should not be discounted. From memory, Griffith recorded the smallest swing against the ALP in QLD in 2010. I believe this was mainly due to the way Rudd was ousted just before the last election. I can understand a swing therefore against Rudd this time, however, 4% is quite a large swing if it does eventuate and places him at well below the 2007 vote where he held about a 12.5% margin.

    I am starting to get the sense that the ALP are not getting the traction in QLD that I was originally afraid of. The ALP are set to lose a couple of seats and I am not entirely sure that they will gain more than a few. Preferencing in these seats by the minor right parties are likely to be be crucial to the outcome in QLD.

27. It is of course possible that both the Griffth poll showing a swing away from Rudd and the state-level Queensland polling showing a swing to the ALP are accurate. Not every electorate has to move with the state-level swing.

28. Yes but given the reasons for the so called swing back to Labor in Qld is down to Queensland’s Kevin Rudd returning, it doesn’t make sense in his own electorate such a swing would go against him. I think DB is right…..there isn’t the shift to the ALP in Qld many Liberals were affraid of….and just to put DB at rest, if you were getting inside mail that there was a swing back to Labor in Qld and it was concerning you, it would be a Herculean effort to win more than 3 surely and that still wouldn’t deliver a Labor government so you can rest easy. Tasmania and South Australia are all going to incur significant Labor losses and that’s without even mentioning how horrible NSW is going to be for Labor. Abbott wil win with about a 10-15 seat majority. I’ll handpick just a few now that are deinitely gone for the ALP:
    Greenway, Lindsay, Corangamite, Deakon, Robertson, Banks, Dobell, La Trobe, Reid, Bass, Braddon, Hindmarsh.

    And then of course there’s the retiring Independent’s seats which are certainties for the Coalition.

29. Rudd for PM – they would be the highest of priorities on my list. I’m not sure that they are definitely gone. I reckon it’s where you will see the leaders spend the most of their time. If they are outside of these seats, then it says we are at the next or secondary level.

    Internal polling is showing an outcome presently which correlates to about a 52/48 result to the Coalition.

30. I’d be careful about reachtel polls. Its the only polling company that has preferred PM that close. It also said Anna Bligh would hold her seat with 65% 2pp, it was 10% off. Then in the by-election, it said Jackie Tradd would hold the seat with 58% 2PP, it was 7% off. Consistency clearly is something that reachtel can struggle with

31. I’m pretty sure reachtel also had Kate Jones retaining her seat

32. Observer – maybe ReachTEL overstates Labor support then?

33. This ReachTel poll, indicates that Labor in Queensland may not win Seats in Queensland after all. Based on this poll, the ALP went up 1.5% on primary, whilst the LNP went up 5.2% with the Greens down 7.4%. The 2PP was AL:P 54.5-45.5, down 4% on 2010.

    The critical thing that the ALP will have this time around is that the Greens are not likely to well at all, especially if this poll is any guide and proberly more reliable than Morgan for starters.

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/federal-election-2013-griffith-poll

34. In last 50 yrs only once in 1990 has Labor in Qld outpolled national levels. I agree Gillard like Keating & Whitlam not liked by Qld & Rudd like Hawke is liked by them, but I can’t see Labor winning election on basis of strong performance in Qld alone, it’s a conservative state

35. I don’t believe you can use the Griffith poll to mean too much. In 2010 Rudd was fresh off losing the Prime Ministership. There would have been a lot of voters in his seat that voted for him out of empathy. Rudd had the smallest swing against him in 2010 of any QLD seat. It doesn’t suprise me then that there would be a bit of drop in his support this time. The bigger worry for Labor is that Rudd had a 12% odd margin in 2007. This time it probably is going to be much less than that (say 7% or so, perhaps less according to this poll).

    I think the above is enough to say though that the ALP won’t do as well in QLD as they did in 2007 where they won a majority of seats over the LNP. They will probably improve on their current number of 8 however.

    In 2007, in QLD the ALP won 15 (on 50.8%) and LNP 13. Current indicators are that the LNP will get about 52-3% (Pollbludger says 55% – too aggressive in my view). On that basis, the ALP may pick up a net 3 or 4 seats in QLD, but probably no better.

    So the question really becomes, should Labor win a net 3 or 4 in QLD, can they break even in the rest of the country? I don’t think so at the moment, but this is the real task.

36. Geoff, Queensland isn’t inherently a “conservative state”. We had a Labor state government for 14 years before Campbell Newman won. And before that, the Nationals only held government for one term, a little over two years, and before that, Labor held it for over six years (of course, before that, the Nationals/Country/Liberals held it for over 32 years).

    Campbell Newman’s LNP government may actually help Labor in Queensland in the election, because they’ve had a lot of screwups that have people protesting, etc. One of his earliest moves was an attempt to placate the religious right by removing the gay civil union *ceremony* – the right complained that it was nothing but removing a bit of show while keeping the thing they had a problem with – the civil union itself – while the left complained about it regressing the state’s civil union laws.

    As for the opinion poll numbers for Griffith, I’m highly skeptical. I very much doubt that Rudd will see a swing against him – Prime Ministers always get extra support. It’s more likely that this particular poll just happens to be an outlier – a lot of people don’t understand that, in a poll, the “margin of error” is only accurate something like 95% of the time (it might be 99%) – the other 5% or 1% of the time (not sure what confidence interval it’s measured on), it will lie outside of that margin.

    The sample size was 702. That gives a 95% confidence margin of error of 3.7% (neglecting the size of the population in the seat). For 99% confidence, the margin is 4.9%. Basically, one in every 40 polls would be expected to be out by more than 3.7% (in favour of the Liberals) if the sample size is 702. I’m betting that this is one such poll.

37. Observer,

    You can’t really compare the ReachTEL BPM numbers to the other polls. ReachTEL forces a choice between the PM and the Opposition Leader. The others have a significant “uncommitted” group. This may indicate that there are a lot of people who if pressed prefer Abbott, or it may mean nothing because the methodologies are so different.

38. The 4.5% swing in that poll reflects the swing I’m hearing about in other south east corner seats such as Oxley, Longman, Petrie, Blair and Moreton.

    Bonner and Brisbane seem to be going the other way though.

39. Can anyone explain to me why Roy Morgan polls are always so dismissed? I’ll be honest Roy Morgan is the only company that has ever polled me.

40. Also in regards to Queensland as a conservative state, that statement is very true. Parties like KAP and back in 1998, One Nation polled better here than any other state because they are extremely right on so many views, particularly Hanson. The reason Labor stayed in power in state here for so long comes down to a few points. Peter Beattie was a very good campaigner, it took many people a long time to get over the findings of the Fitzgerald Enquiry but the biggest reason was the opposition was hopeless and often lost the election from their own stupidity. Also a lot of the issues that make people conservative are more federal issues: economy, border patrol etc and therefore don’t affect decisions in state elections like they can federally. Also as soon as there was someone who could campaign and the people of Qld liked, that being Can’t Do Newman, they were happy to kick Labor out.

41. Rudd for PM, it’s because Morgan polls have a traditionally very strong ALP lean. However, with the move to multi-node rather than F2F, this may change.

42. The face-to-face was also subject to wild swings and periods that were out of step with the other firms (usually in Labor’s favour). The new multi-mode hasn’t been as bad, but the numbers after Rudd’s return were a little worrying. It was the only poll to show Labor winning on TPP, with results based on the 2010 flow of preferences at 51, 52.5, 51.5, 52, and 50.5, when the other pollsters were showing Labor at between 48 and 50. They fell back to the pack last weekend, with a result of 49.5 for Labor as against 48 to 49 for the others.

    Another reason people are dismissive of Morgan at this point is that the multi-mode is new, so it is hard to judge its reliability. Another concern I read somewhere (though I don’t remember where, so I don’t know whether it is valid) is that the multi-mode poll’s methodology is a bit opaque, which would be another reason to be cautious about relying on it. Perhaps KB can weigh in on that.

43. RichR – face-to-face polling has demonstrated to me in Australia that it is biased and generally favours the ALP (in 2PP terms) on average, or if there is a large swing on, the more popular party (as it did towards to Coalition during 2011 and 2012). Morgan claim to be the most accurate in polling when it comes to election outcomes, however, that is solely based on their final poll a day or two before the election, which is always done using telephone polling.

    There is an effect called the Shy Tory Factor eminating out of the UK and it is principally based on Tory voters being too shy to admit they would support Tory and therefore, the Tory support in polls is argued to be understated compared to election outcomes. My view is that in Australia we have this sort of effect in face-to-face polling. Based on my analysis so far, my findings indicate that face-to-face polling certainly overstates support for minor parties: the Greens, Others, and to a lesser extent Labor, at the expense of the Coalition. When I get some time, I am going to write some more on this and submit it to Peter Brent who might want to carry on with it under his name. I certainly won’t be seeking anything in return from Peter.

    As for other communicative modes, such as the internet, which Essential and Morgan use, there is probably not enough data to make a fair assessment, however, it is my view that these modes tend to track closer to the main telephone / land line outcomes of Newspoll, Galaxy, and Nielsen than face-to-face polling. Therefore, I dismiss face-to-face polling.

    Overall, if rolling Morgan multi-media polling shows that it is 50/50 or even slightly favours the ALP, I am pretty confident that the Coalition would be ahead in 2PP terms. This does not necessarily indicate seat outcomes however.

    Some people argue that ReachTEL is Coaltiion friendly. That hasn’t been my experience, however, ReachTEL do undertake a lot of polls which are seat specific and this may be being confused with overall 2PP results. ReachTEL seems to indicate the Coalition are ahead in more marginal seats than Labor are. Internal polling from both parties from what I hear also suggest this to be the case.

44. Recent poll run by Guardian-Lonergan shows Glasson up 52-48 with a 4% margin of error.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/22/kevin-rudd-trails-seat-griffith-poll?CMP=twt_gu

    Rogue Poll or is this on to something?

45. Good sample of 960 odd.

    I don’t believe Rudd is in danger, however, this certainly does show a consistent swing against Labor in the marginal seats in QLD.

46. Newspoll shows a 2% swing to labor in QLD

47. True about Newspoll. I reckon Newspoll has understated Labor’s vote in NSW and overstated Labor’s vote in QLD. (Put it this way, if the Coalition get 57% in NSW, they will win an additional 16 seats from the last election and it would be game over). These are small samples, so should be taken lightly. The Griffith poll, in contrast, is quite a large one and should not be discounted to the extent that it continues to show problems for the ALP in QLD generally. Lonergan will provide further polling in the next few days I believe.

    Interestingly, last night’s debate from the people who attended marginally put Abbott as the winner of the debate, which surprised me. It doesn’t really matter because I believe there were only 400,000 viewers across Australia and there were many less viewers compared to the first debate. Perhaps the ‘undecided voaters’ decision on the debate at the forum is also an indicator that Labor are on the nose in QLD. To be fair, I actually thought Rudd won the debate but there certainly was no knockout blow, yet the attendees gave the decision marginally to Abbott.

48. DB – do you have a source for the claim that attendees gave it to Abbott? All indications I’ve seen have suggested that people think Rudd won it, outside of certain outspoken individuals.

49. The majority of people were undecided, Rudd behind by 2 votes but every commentator has said that Rudd won and performed much better. I dont think the libs were expecting it and look really worried about how this will impact the election. I think undecided was expected because to be honest Rudd was negative and Abbott was positive but not in the way he should be. The fact that the one debate where Abbott doesn’t have to compare visions, he failed to really resonate with people and more people are undecided now. Thats a worry for the libs and probably show how effective Rudd negative campaign will be compared to the Abbott one ran in the earlier weeks

50. And just on the forum, I’d say that this was crucial for Abbott to perform well. At the debate, alot of people watched it so no matter what commentators said, people would make their own mind up. The fact that commentators are saying Rudd performed better isn’t good because not many people at all watched it and therefore will rely on commentators to make a decision for them

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