ALP 0.9%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Rowland, since 2010.
Geography
Western Suburbs of Sydney. Greenway covers the eastern parts of the City of Blacktown and some parts of Parramatta and Holroyd council areas. Suburbs include Lalor Park, Seven Hills, Blacktown, Toongabbie, Girraween, Pendle Hill, The Ponds and Riverstone.
History
Greenway was first created in 1984, and was held relatively comfortably by the ALP throughout the 1980s and 1990s.
The seat was first won by Russell Gorman in 1984. Gorman had previously held Chifley from 1983 until he moved to Greenway in 1984. He was succeeded by Frank Mossfield in 1996.
Mossfield retired at the 2004 election, and the ALP stood Ed Husic, while the Liberals stood Louise Markus. The ALP’s margin had been cut to 3% at the 2001 election, and in 2004 Markus managed to win the seat.
The 2007 election saw the seat redistributed radically, and the Liberal margin was increased from 50.6% to 61.3%. A swing of almost 7% was suffered against Markus, but she held on under the new boundaries.
The 2009 redistribution saw the boundary changes largely reversed, and the new margin saw Markus shift to the neighbouring seat of Macquarie, winning that seat off the ALP.
Labor councillor Michelle Rowland won the redrawn Greenway in 2010.
Candidates
- Jaymes Diaz (Liberal)
- Jamie Cavanough (Australian Voice)
- Jodie Wootton (Palmer United Party)
- Tom Lillicrap (Sex Party)
- Michelle Rowland (Labor)
- Anthony Belcastro (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Allan Green (Christian Democratic Party)
- Chris Brentin (Greens)
- Maree Nichols (Rise Up Australia)
Assessment
Greenway will be one of the Liberal Party’s top targets and will be a vital gain if the Coalition is to win a majority. The Liberal Party’s choice of candidate will have a major impact on the race.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | ALP | 33,567 | 42.32 | -7.36 |
| Jaymes Diaz | LIB | 32,788 | 41.34 | +2.05 |
| Paul Taylor | GRN | 4,769 | 6.01 | +1.57 |
| Allan Green | CDP | 2,922 | 3.68 | +0.86 |
| Iris Muller | FF | 1,296 | 1.63 | +0.38 |
| John Baiada | BA | 815 | 1.03 | +1.03 |
| Tony Pettitt | AF | 780 | 0.98 | +0.98 |
| Michael Santos | IND | 770 | 0.97 | +0.97 |
| Joaquim de Lima | LDP | 542 | 0.68 | +0.51 |
| Amarjit Tanda | IND | 530 | 0.67 | +0.67 |
| Ronaldo Villaver | DEM | 529 | 0.67 | +0.67 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Rowland | ALP | 40,355 | 50.88 | -4.79 |
| Jaymes Diaz | LIB | 38,953 | 49.12 | +4.79 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. “North” covers those parts north of the M7. Areas in Blacktown City Council south of railway line (as well as those parts in Parramatta and Holroyd councils) have been grouped as “South” with the remainder in “Central”.
The Liberal Party won a majority in the north, while the ALP won a slim majority in the centre and a larger majority in the south.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| North | 4.90 | 46.29 | 27,511 | 34.69 |
| South | 6.36 | 56.28 | 21,704 | 27.37 |
| Central | 6.61 | 51.69 | 15,710 | 19.81 |
| Other votes | 6.96 | 50.64 | 14,383 | 18.14 |
Not in the real world Glen……hope your not advising anyone with that spiel….
I for one would find it genuinely fresh to see a candidate proposing the importance of representing the electorate rather than the party. But maybe that’s just me.
Well I just called it as i saw it. Doesn’t matter what side he is on he is a dud and doesn’t deserve to get elected…..He is supposed to be a solicitor. Wouldn’t want him trying to talk you out of a murder charge in a country with the death penalty…..
Glen
It would be really great if the Libs failed to take Greenway. If so it would clearly be as a result of Pre-selecting Diaz (twice). What a bunch of fools, imbeciles, to turn an error, into a mistake, by repeating it. Putting Diaz forward (to any electorate) is inexcusable, & indefensible.
i suspect that Diaz will just slither in though, & he will be the ultimate time server, if he survives the next pre-selection. More’s the pity…
Previously I had thought that Greenway would be the first Labor seat in NSW to fall, but following the Diaz fail and how widespread the disdain at his performance was (far wider than I would have guessed for essentially a Youtube moment), this is back in play. Diaz would still be favourite, but the $4 odds is the best Labor outsider bet in NSW at the moment.
The Blacktown Advocate have really been hammering Diaz over his non-attendance at community forums and his refusal to grant interviews. So much so, that there is conjecture whether the Advocate is running a pro-Labor bias.
Tony Abbott was in Seven Hills this week, although there was no word whether Diaz was there with him.
It wasn’t as though there was a shortage of quality candidates from the Liberal Party putting their hand up for Greenway. The Libs can’t use the we had no one else line to trot out, if they lose to the ALP here.
Voted yesterday at Town Hall, and as soon as I said, I was from Greenway, every party was after me and handed me leaflets telling me how to vote. The Liberal bloke was the worst of the lot, telling me how I should vote. Needless to say, I didn’t appreciate the lectures, given I always vote below the line in the Senate.
There is a contradiction with Mr Diaz he is a local liberal party numbers man in Greenway
and also a poor….. unprepared candidate…….I suspect the Alp will hold this seat
As a candidate, I was embarrassed to see the Diaz mess. All candidates should be fully versed in all the local issues and the parties policies. If you do not know what your party stands for, then you deserve to lose. Plus, you should have a standard response ready for any media questions that catch you off guard. Given that he failed on both accounts, the people of Greenway should avoid him. Pick somebody that cares about the electorate and is capable of doing the job.
Will Michelle Rowland’s opposition to gay marriage help her re-election?
A vote for M Rowland is A vote for more of the damage that this government has delivered over the years.. The border control is a shambles which costs us millions every week and has allowed many people in our country unchecked and supported with our taxes. The failure of so many government programs including the , pink batts, BER, NBN to be managed and implemented has delivered a poor performance that I wouldnt want to see continue. Business has suffered so much under this government with the carbon tax and now the car industry is on it knees again with further changes to the FBT destroying more business’s. A vote for change, a better managed economy and help reducing the costs of living, supporting causes in our community like the Junior Diabetes (30 million pledge) by Tony Abbott should be what we want for this country. Diabetes is major health problem in our country now and This Government has already declined to pledge any funds in a recent trip to Canberra by JDRF. This government got their priorities out of touch with the people and the last few years have shown it.
WBDG – good to see your comment was all about how bad the local candidate for the Coalition is for Greenway….oh wait it wasn’t, just more spin and scripted Coalition type stuff. You may want the Coalition in government, but why vote in an absolute dead head to be your local member? He will be a one term MP so the electorate won’t get anything anyway because they will focus on retaining seats they want to hold onto in 3 years time. At least a Labor person in opposition in the electorate would be forced to fight and argue for you.
I anticipate a swing against Rowland which should deliver the seat to Diaz, but it won’t be by as much as some other seats in western Sydney.
This seat is actually lineball and one of the most retainable seats by the ALP. Expect to see the libs pull what resources they have out of here and into seats like Parramatta and Banks
especially since now libs don’t even turn up on time for street stalls
All looks lost now with Labor losing the government, but does anyone really think Jaymes Diaz deserves a Federal backbench minimum salary of $185,000 a year!?! My goodness, if he had to have an interview for the job I’d love to see how he goes! As a Greenway voter, I really don’t mind if Liberals win but I’m voting for my local member, and just can’t believe how sub-standard you can be to get a politicials job these days.
Richard thats actually the view of most voters in Greenway and if DB wants to claim polling says otherwise then thats a worry because its not going to be easy for the liberals to win this
I’d have to agree. I’d be embarrassed to have him as a local member. However, it has to be said that there is some deadwood within both major parties – and probably a lot of trash in a newer party like PUP given the rush to have a candidate for each seat.
And we can’t expect the caliber of candidates to improve given how much we trash and also expect of our pollies.
I also note that DB doesn’t refer to polling just an anticipation so clearly Greenway isn’t a certainty
I have some good sources I can’t disclose and word is Diaz is seen as having leadership potential down the track.
LOL he doesnt even have the leadership to manage a macdonalds outlet
I can only pass on what I’ve been told.
propmike – if there are people in the Liberal party who think that Diaz has “leadership potential”, then they’re incompetent and deluded, and should be ejected from the party. I don’t know the quality of your sources, but for the sake of the Liberals, I hope they’re not as trustworthy as you think.
Lol Diaz with leadership potential? If that’s the case I think Abbott wants a dumb team behind him just in case any Labor style backstabbing comes his way once Liberal polls start dropping once they are in office.
Diaz? Leadership material? LOL!
And this is coming from a pretty right-wing voter, I’d vote FF, CDP, LDP or some other right-wing minor party as my first preference if Turnbull was Liberal leader.
I suspect propmike might be taking the P15S out of everyone………Or the leadership material he talks about could involve a position with the local pub darts committee…….It is a measurement of how bad Labors going though when he is still in the ball game…….
As someone close(ish) to Tony’s campaign, I’ve also been told Diaz will be placed on a leadership track. He will also be able to help secure and stabilize the LNP’s vote in Western Sydney in the future.
Well a big THANK YOU to our local Liberal branch for putting Jaymes Diaz in again, Not that Tony wanted him in again, that was well reported. It was also reported that Daddy Diaz had a big influence at the local level. 2010 Jaymes did a really poor job of getting out there, many did not even know who the Local Liberal guy was – even on the day at the polling booths. What a joke ! for a swinging seat. Well this time Jaymes get’s out there a bit and stuff’s up, big time with the media, goes into hiding (sorry media training) and comes out again looking like a fool with the media and then is reported to not answer peoples questions in the street. Reading his Face book, it looks like he is not getting back to people, not putting up posters in areas he lost last election, such as Lalor Park and Seven Hills. He only has put out a few flyers in the mail. Now he is reported to have not been turning up at public functions and forums in the community. The locals have the “Where is Jaymes ?” Joke. Now there are questions about his character (where he really lives and what type of law he is practicing) Oh what a mess !. I want Tony to win, but on principal it’s a hard pill to swallow to vote for Jaymes . He is just so undeserving of a win, he just has not come across as hard working and knowing what he is talking about on those rare occasions he speaks. I think I will vote for a smaller party that then given preference to Liberal . I just cant bring myself to vote for Jaymes directly. Thanks again -Local Liberal branch- personal gain before Australians gain. Good one !
I would assume Charcoal Chicken that if he is successful he will be booked into a Public Relations/Media Engagement course immediately……….
Because of our campaign strategy, all the Lib candidates have felt constrained in what they can say. So it’s a bit unfair to put the blame on Diaz.
Diaz was constrained by not knowing his party’s own policy. He is entirely to blame for that.
reading from the other comments I suspect Mr Diaz will go the way of Mr Kelly and not win
I think Diaz will win. He will be swept up in the 7% swing or so that will occur in the ALP Sydney electorates.
Diaz will win, and he will be placed on a leadership track. You’ll be hearing a lot more from Diaz in the future.
Let’s hope it’s better than what we’ve heard from him so far.
Just watched the interview again. The journo clearly knew prior that he was sus and targeted him. His minder or media adviser also knew he was sus the way he tried to protect him from questions. I just thought with him being a solicitor etc. he would be able to speak for himself better. From my experience solicitors usually have plenty to say and are happy to say it.(maybe thats when they’re charging you for it) He may well win and good luck to him if he does but the media will be all over him i am tipping……….
It seems that Diaz has one of his family members posting here given the absurd claims that he is future leadership material!
A new bored (yes, intentional) game? http://www.blacktownsun.com.au/story/1748775/wheres-jaymes-diaz/?cs=1179
You’d be a fool to suggest that there would be a uniform swing in this seat. People in greenway are offended at the liberal party choice to dump Jaymes Diaz on them. Michelle is hugely popular and has delivered a lot for the electorate will be close but wouldn’t be surprised if labor holds on here
The people of Greenway would be fools to deny the new Coalition government a potential foreign minister in Diaz.
Hi Promike,
I am assuming you are saying this “tongue in cheek”…..
I think a good 10 years in Parliament and some Public Affairs training and he might be ready as a junior minister maybe !
I wouldn’t hire him to get me out of a parking fine.
Diaz would be good for talking to the council officer who issues the infringement notice and confusing the heck out of him…..
When the Liberal party talks about talent, they talk about ‘Diaz’. He’s one of our best and brightest.
I really hope you’re saying that in a tongue in cheek manner, Charcoal Chicken. Because what we’ve seen in this election is him put forward an absolutely atrocious interview that showed that he was neither keeping abreast of party policy (for a regular candidate it wouldn’t be too bad, but for one looked at as leadership material, it’s awful), nor capable of the sort of quick thinking that leaders in political parties need to be capable of.
And then, of course, he disappeared, rather than moving into damage control. That’s another count against him.
If Diaz is one of your “best and brightest” amongst the up-and-comers in the Liberal Party, then we’re looking at the Liberals’ last hurrah.
Tell me you don’t believe everything you read in the liberal mainstream media Glen?
propmike, did you mistakenly direct that at me? Because I didn’t make any comment that was in any way related to media, especially not media that is “liberal mainstream media”. Whether Diaz is campaigning or not is irrelevant; he has disappeared from the media (and even when the media go looking for him, he refuses to speak to them), and thus avoided the opportunity to do damage control.
Surely at least someone within his campaign could have arranged a public comment for him to make, something like “My interview did not go well, and I take responsibility for that. I allowed myself to become flustered, and thus momentarily forgot details that I was referring to, as happens to people from time to time. I want to be the representative of the people of Greenway, and I assure them that what was seen in the interview is not typical of me.”
And then he could have faded back out of the media’s sights again. But instead, he’s hiding from the media and hoping that it’s just forgotten.
Have to agree with you Glen although don’t know whether I would be advising that specific line if I were looking after him. It was a big blue in the first place and hard to come back from. Again as I have said and you may not want to hear this but it shows how bad Labor is going that he is still in the contest….. Perhaps he is just better off disappearing and leaving it to the voters……If he happens to win then he has got 3 years to make it up to the people of Greenway. He is certainly not leadership material like some ‘naughty’ contributors are suggesting but I think they might be having a bit of fun……..
He’s not just in the contest, he’s a prohibitive favourite according to the bookmakers. Last I checked Rowland was 6.50 on Sportsbet, which suggests that she has a 15% chance before you even account for the bookie’s vig.
Well there you go…..Fair enough. Things must be worse for Labor in Western Sydney than I thought. Reckon he’d be in trouble down here if he made a gaffe like that in a marginal seat….
Diaz is a prohibitive favourite because he connects with the people of Greenway and he has that ability to really talk to people. If you don’t believe me, look at the betting markets: they prove his leaderships credentials.
The betting markets reflect expectations based on opinion polling and statewide trends. The betting markets also think the ALP are very likely to win in Melbourne, that the Liberal Party is well ahead in Indi (over the independent, Cathy McGowan), that Labor has almost no chance in Forde, etc. Betting markets let you know what the punters think (with a caveat), but they aren’t reflective of actual on-the-ground situations.
The caveat I refer to is that, if a wealthy person or organisation bets a lot of money on the Coalition in a seat, it’ll skew the odds. For all we know, Murdoch could be placing a heap of bets in various seats in order to influence the outcome. I don’t actually think it’s what’s happening, but it’s an extreme demonstration of the caveat.